Global| Jul 18 2007Italy’s Exports and Imports Slow, but Exports Still Exceed
Summary
Italys trade balance trend is slipping, too. Imports outpaced exports in May. Exports fell faster than imports of the past three months. Over six and 12-months goods exports have grown faster than goods imports. For services imports [...]
Italy’s trade balance trend is slipping, too.
Imports outpaced exports in May. Exports fell faster than imports of the past three months. Over six and 12-months goods exports have grown faster than goods imports. For services imports are consistently far faster-growing.
The composition of trade flows shows that exports of transportation equipment (Y/Y) have slowed sharply in May. Capital goods exports have slowed sharply as well. Consumer goods exports also have slowed. On the import side, food and consumer goods imports slowed in May. Capital goods imports are holding up. Imports of other goods have slowed.
There is little in these trends to raise any concerns. At the same time there is some evidence of slowing. Europe currently has a truly strong exchange rate from the euro to the pound sterling. This sort of currency strength can be expected to take some toll on growth. Italy’s export flows include goods that are exported both within as well call as outside of the EMU community. So we do not get a clear reading from these data on the impact of the FX rate. But slowing export flows would result if the euro rose too high; at some point even Italian exports kept within the community would suffer as an export slowdown for EMU as a whole would also slow domestically generated growth too.
| May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | 3-MO | 6-Mo | 12-Mo | |
| Current Account Bal | €€ (3,560) | €€ (2,774) | €€ (3,299) | €€ (3,211) | €€ (2,950) | €€ (3,197) |
| Goods Balance | €€ (139) | €€ 589 | €€ 215 | €€ 222 | €€ 336 | €€ (316) |
| Exports | 5.9% | 0.5% | -9.8% | -15.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% |
| Imports | 8.6% | -0.9% | -9.8% | -11.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% |
| Services Balance | €€ (429) | €€ (1,107) | €€ (222) | €€ (586) | €€ (426) | €€ (405) |
| Exports | -0.4% | 3.3% | -4.9% | -8.1% | 15.3% | 10.7% |
| Imports | -8.7% | 15.9% | 1.2% | 31.5% | 20.3% | 11.4% |
| Not Seasonally Adjusted | All Yr/Yr | |||||
| Exports | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Feb-07 | Jan-07 | Dec-06 |
| Food & Beverages | 1.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 10.8% | 5.4% |
| Capital Goods | 4.3% | 18.6% | 15.8% | 17.3% | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Transport | -1.7% | 22.6% | 25.8% | 27.0% | 3.9% | 14.1% |
| Consumer Goods | 3.5% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 12.5% |
| Other Goods | 21.2% | 13.0% | 4.7% | 11.3% | 34.5% | 19.9% |
| Imports | May-07 | Apr-07 | Mar-07 | Feb-07 | Jan-07 | Dec-06 |
| Food & Beverages | -1.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 5.2% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| Capital Goods | 6.3% | 14.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 13.8% | 3.7% |
| Transport | 8.4% | 12.3% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 13.2% | 2.9% |
| Consumer Goods | -0.7% | 6.2% | 2.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% |
| Other Goods | 1.1% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 27.2% |
| Balances in Mil of Euros | ||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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