Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050627b.jpg" width="353">
At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 near 4%.
The May figure left the three-month moving average of the CFNAI at -0.01.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
During the last twenty years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The latest CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_June2005.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">May &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>0.10</td>
<td>0.05</td>
<td>0.57</td>
<td>0.39</td>
<td>-0.11</td>
<td>-0.40</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Liquidity Growth Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 27, 2005


Liquidity growth in the US has slowed markedly this year versus the charged growth rates during the prior three years. Growth during the last three months in the adjusted monetary base fell to 1.2% versus 5.3% growth last year and 8.6% growth during 2002.
Contributing to this slowdown, if not causing it, has been the increase in the targeted interest rate for Fed funds to 3.0% from 1.0%.
Growth in MZM also has slowed to 0.8% during the last three months versus 3.9% during 2004 and 13.0% growth during 2002. The pickup in the most recent MZM growth rate from below zero may indicate continued life for consumer spending.
A Neutral Federal Funds Rate? from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20041201/cover.pdf"> here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050627a.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050627c.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W3/@W301/@W301.HTM">Money Supply</a></th>
<th scope="col">6/22/05 (13 Week %, AR)</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Adjusted Monetary Base</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MZM</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

At 0.10 in May, the National Activity Index (CFNAI) compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago continued to suggest that US economic growth has slowed.The slowdown, however, would be from the heady rates of growth during 2004 [...]

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Indicates Trend US GDP Growth

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624d.jpg" width="353">
Are you aware that Mexico runs a trade deficit? In May, this was $434.6 million; in 2004, it averaged $726.7 million a month. Over the past year, exports, not seasonally adjusted, have grown 13.3%; while higher petroleum exports are part of this growth, nonpetroleum exports have risen 12.4%.
So Mexico is yet another instance in which conventional wisdom would suggest that a specific nation must surely have a huge trade surplus: don&#39;t &quot;we&quot; import a lot from Mexico, as &quot;we&quot; do from China and India? But contrary to popular belief, those are both countries which have near balances in their trade accounts, not big surpluses.
Mexico does run a substantial surplus with the US, recently around $5 billion monthly. US purchases account for about 87% of Mexican exports, a substantial part of which involves the &quot;maquiladora&quot; trade, the plants near the US border which import parts and components for products that they assemble and re-export.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624e.jpg" width="353">
While the shares of Mexican trade connected to the US and/or to the maquiladora operations are large, Mexico does engage other countries and purposes. Particularly in the past couple of years, Mexican imports from non-US countries have grown rapidly: In March (the latest available), they were $8.2 billion, almost half of that month&#39;s total goods imports. In 2002, these imports averaged just $5.1 billion monthly, 36.5% of imports. In the more recent periods, Brazil, China and the EU have accounted for notable parts of the Mexico&#39;s import business. Further, consumer goods imports have been expanding. Over the last 12 months, they have grown by 17.4%, compared with an increase of 14.3% for total imports. Capital goods imports have also strengthened. These upturns coincide with the run-up in oil prices and the consequent surge in Mexico&#39;s petroleum exports. Quite possibly, these additional oil revenues are being recycled into the world economy, perhaps into countries other than the ones who bought the oil.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">MexicoSeas Adj, Mil.$</th>
<th scope="col">May 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance</td>
<td>-434.6</td>
<td>-587.9</td>
<td>-734.2</td>
<td>-726.7</td>
<td>-475.0</td>
<td>-627.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>17476.7</td>
<td>17039.4</td>
<td>16836.7</td>
<td>15620.2</td>
<td>13738.0</td>
<td>13407.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To US</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>14690.7</td>
<td>13732.8</td>
<td>12046.1</td>
<td>11846.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; All Other</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2146.0</td>
<td>1897.4</td>
<td>1691.9</td>
<td>1561.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>17896.2</td>
<td>17651.6</td>
<td>17574.0</td>
<td>16318.1</td>
<td>14213.8</td>
<td>14040.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From US</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>9354.7</td>
<td>9272.0</td>
<td>8810.3</td>
<td>8910.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; All Other</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>8219.3</td>
<td>7046.1</td>
<td>5403.5</td>
<td>5130.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Are you aware that Mexico runs a trade deficit? In May, this was $434.6 million; in 2004, it averaged $726.7 million a month. Over the past year, exports, not seasonally adjusted, have grown 13.3%; while higher petroleum exports are [...]

Despite Strong Oil Revenues and Big US Exports, Mexican Trade Runs Overall Deficit

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624c.jpg" width="353">
New single-family home sales in May rose 2.1% m/m to 1.298M. The figure was slightly below the record level reached last October but sales during prior months were revised lower. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.32M.
Sales in the Northeast in May gave back all of the prior month&#39;s spurt (-28.2% y/y) and sales in the South fell 0.8% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth month this year. Sales in the Midwest rose 22.9% (28.2% y/y) to a record high and sales out West rose 1.7% (0.8% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home fell 6.5% to $217,000 (+2.5% y/y), the lowest level since last September.
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,298</td>
<td>1,271</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>1,200</td>
<td>1,091</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New single-family home sales in May rose 2.1% m/m to 1.298M. The figure was slightly below the record level reached last October but sales during prior months were revised lower. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.32M. Sales [...]

New Home Sales Up, Prices Down

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624a.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods soared 5.5% in May, lifted by aircraft &amp; parts orders which more than doubled m/m. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise.
The 125% surge in orders for aircraft raised transportation equipment orders by 21.2%. A 0.2% (-1.6%) gain in motor vehicles &amp; parts also contributed.
Less transportation durable orders fell 0.2% (+6.6% y/y) for the third slight decline in the last four months. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders fell 1.2% (+5.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline, and machinery orders fell 1.9% (+8.7% y/y). Electrical equipment orders rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) and &quot;other&quot; orders rose 1.8% (6.3% y/y).
Orders for non-defense capital goods rose 14.5% on the strength of the orders received by Boeing. Less aircraft capital goods orders fell 2.3% and shipments rose just 0.2% (12.2% y/y). During the last four months shipments have fallen 1.1%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624b.jpg" width="353">
Durable inventories rose 0.3% (8.7% y/y) following no change in April. Less transportation inventories also rose 0.3% (9.8% y/y).
Unfilled orders jumped 1.9% (7.6% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs fell slightly (+7.7% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation has been moving erratically sideways since early last year.
How Long Is Long Term Investment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/Pdf/1Q05shen.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>28.2%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

New orders for durable goods soared 5.5% in May, lifted by aircraft & parts orders which more than doubled m/m. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise. The 125% surge in orders for aircraft raised transportation equipment [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624a.jpg" width="353">
New orders for durable goods soared 5.5% in May, lifted by aircraft &amp; parts orders which more than doubled m/m. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise.
The 125% surge in orders for aircraft raised transportation equipment orders by 21.2%. A 0.2% (-1.6%) gain in motor vehicles &amp; parts also contributed.
Less transportation durable orders fell 0.2% (+6.6% y/y) for the third slight decline in the last four months. Computer &amp; electronic equipment orders fell 1.2% (+5.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline, and machinery orders fell 1.9% (+8.7% y/y). Electrical equipment orders rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) and &quot;other&quot; orders rose 1.8% (6.3% y/y).
Orders for non-defense capital goods rose 14.5% on the strength of the orders received by Boeing. Less aircraft capital goods orders fell 2.3% and shipments rose just 0.2% (12.2% y/y). During the last four months shipments have fallen 1.1%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624b.jpg" width="353">
Durable inventories rose 0.3% (8.7% y/y) following no change in April. Less transportation inventories also rose 0.3% (9.8% y/y).
Unfilled orders jumped 1.9% (7.6% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs fell slightly (+7.7% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation has been moving erratically sideways since early last year.
How Long Is Long Term Investment? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City is available <a href="http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/econrev/Pdf/1Q05shen.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Transportation</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>28.2%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Up, Prices Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> June 24, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624c.jpg" width="353">
New single-family home sales in May rose 2.1% m/m to 1.298M. The figure was slightly below the record level reached last October but sales during prior months were revised lower. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.32M.
Sales in the Northeast in May gave back all of the prior month&#39;s spurt (-28.2% y/y) and sales in the South fell 0.8% (+3.8% y/y), down for the fourth month this year. Sales in the Midwest rose 22.9% (28.2% y/y) to a record high and sales out West rose 1.7% (0.8% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home fell 6.5% to $217,000 (+2.5% y/y), the lowest level since last September.
The figures from the Census Department reflect homes sold.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,298</td>
<td>1,271</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>1,200</td>
<td>1,091</td>
<td>976</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Despite Strong Oil Revenues and Big US Exports, Mexican Trade Runs Overall Deficit 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> June 24, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624d.jpg" width="353">
Are you aware that Mexico runs a trade deficit? In May, this was $434.6 million; in 2004, it averaged $726.7 million a month. Over the past year, exports, not seasonally adjusted, have grown 13.3%; while higher petroleum exports are part of this growth, nonpetroleum exports have risen 12.4%.
So Mexico is yet another instance in which conventional wisdom would suggest that a specific nation must surely have a huge trade surplus: don&#39;t &quot;we&quot; import a lot from Mexico, as &quot;we&quot; do from China and India? But contrary to popular belief, those are both countries which have near balances in their trade accounts, not big surpluses.
Mexico does run a substantial surplus with the US, recently around $5 billion monthly. US purchases account for about 87% of Mexican exports, a substantial part of which involves the &quot;maquiladora&quot; trade, the plants near the US border which import parts and components for products that they assemble and re-export.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050624e.jpg" width="353">
While the shares of Mexican trade connected to the US and/or to the maquiladora operations are large, Mexico does engage other countries and purposes. Particularly in the past couple of years, Mexican imports from non-US countries have grown rapidly: In March (the latest available), they were $8.2 billion, almost half of that month&#39;s total goods imports. In 2002, these imports averaged just $5.1 billion monthly, 36.5% of imports. In the more recent periods, Brazil, China and the EU have accounted for notable parts of the Mexico&#39;s import business. Further, consumer goods imports have been expanding. Over the last 12 months, they have grown by 17.4%, compared with an increase of 14.3% for total imports. Capital goods imports have also strengthened. These upturns coincide with the run-up in oil prices and the consequent surge in Mexico&#39;s petroleum exports. Quite possibly, these additional oil revenues are being recycled into the world economy, perhaps into countries other than the ones who bought the oil.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">MexicoSeas Adj, Mil.$</th>
<th scope="col">May 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2005</th>
Monthly Averages
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2004</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Trade Balance</td>
<td>-434.6</td>
<td>-587.9</td>
<td>-734.2</td>
<td>-726.7</td>
<td>-475.0</td>
<td>-627.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>17476.7</td>
<td>17039.4</td>
<td>16836.7</td>
<td>15620.2</td>
<td>13738.0</td>
<td>13407.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; To US</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>14690.7</td>
<td>13732.8</td>
<td>12046.1</td>
<td>11846.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; All Other</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2146.0</td>
<td>1897.4</td>
<td>1691.9</td>
<td>1561.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>17896.2</td>
<td>17651.6</td>
<td>17574.0</td>
<td>16318.1</td>
<td>14213.8</td>
<td>14040.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; From US</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>9354.7</td>
<td>9272.0</td>
<td>8810.3</td>
<td>8910.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; All Other</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>8219.3</td>
<td>7046.1</td>
<td>5403.5</td>
<td>5130.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050623c.jpg" width="353">
Consumer confidence has eroded in Italy this month, with a decline of 1.4 percentage points in the ISAE indicator to 102.9 from 104.3 in May (seasonally adjusted, 1980=100). Concern over the overall economic situation is the broad source of discomfort, as people&#39;s assessment of the &quot;general economic situation&quot; dropped to 76.0 from 83.9 last month. While total confidence remains stronger than 2004 levels, the &quot;general&quot; indicator has fallen below last year&#39;s range.
At the same time, people see their own economic situations as holding up -- or at least not worsening as severely. The &quot;personal situation&quot; gauge climbed 1.8 points to 117.1, the highest level since September 2002. Associated survey items, such as household finances and financial expectations are moving in a narrow range, and buying attitudes toward major purchases and ability to save are actually improving. Attitudes about job prospects are mixed. This survey sees unemployment going higher, but new regulations give employers more flexibility about using temporary and part-time workers, so there is uncertainty about their implication for the number of jobs and the financial implications.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050623d.jpg" width="353">
These considerations accompany the uncertainty over the EU constitution and the rise in energy costs. Perhaps the surprising thing about this survey is that its final outcome wasn&#39;t lower.
In the Netherlands, consumer confidence did drop more sharply, to -26 this month from -22 in May and -16 in April. The components here show the same pattern as in Italy, however, as the macro indicator, &quot;economic climate&quot; plunged to -30 from -22 in May and -8 in April. The &quot;willingness to buy&quot; indicator has been fairly stable, with -23 this month after -22 in May and -20 in April. The deterioration in these data break an improving trend that had run from mid-2003 to this spring, just before the vote over the EU constitution. This too suggests that consumers&#39; worries are more over political uncertainties that about their own economic situation. Not though, please note, that they are optimistic about that, but just that their distress is less intense.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ITALY/ITALY.HTM">Italy</a>(Index, 1980=100)</th>
<th scope="col">June 2005</th>
<th scope="col">May 2005</th>
<th scope="col">June 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Confidence Indicator</td>
<td>102.9</td>
<td>104.3</td>
<td>100.1</td>
<td>101.4</td>
<td>106.1</td>
<td>115.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; General Economic Situation</td>
<td>76.0</td>
<td>83.9</td>
<td>89.0</td>
<td>88.6</td>
<td>91.4</td>
<td>105.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Personal Economic Situation</td>
<td>117.1</td>
<td>115.3</td>
<td>106.5</td>
<td>107.9</td>
<td>113.5</td>
<td>121.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BENELUX/@B2/@B2.HTM">Netherlands</a> &nbsp; Consumer Confidence Survey&nbsp; &nbsp; (% balance)</td>
<td>-26</td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-25</td>
<td>-35</td>
<td>-25</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer confidence has eroded in Italy this month, with a decline of 1.4 percentage points in the ISAE indicator to 102.9 from 104.3 in May (seasonally adjusted, 1980=100). Concern over the overall economic situation is the broad [...]

Consumers Fret Over Economic Situation in Italy & Netherlands

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050623b.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales in May of existing homes declined a modest 0.7% to 7,130M versus the unrevised record during the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for roughly the same decline to 7.15M.
The data reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.<blockquote></blockquote>
Sales of single-family homes fell 1.1% to 6.210M and were down m/m throughout the country except in the West where they rose 1.4% (-1.3% y/y). Sales in the South slipped 0.8% (+5.6% y/y) and in the Midwest closings dropped 4.7% (0.0% y/y). In the Northeast sales fell 1.2% (+3.7% y/y).
The median price of an existing single family home rose slightly m/m to a record $204,600 (12.2% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/research.nsf/pages/EHSPage?OpenDocument">here</a>.
Fed Chairman Greenspan&#39;s Testimony on China is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/2005/20050623/default.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Home Sales</td>
<td>7,130</td>
<td>7,180</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>6,723</td>
<td>6,170</td>
<td>5,653</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family Home Sales</td>
<td>6,210</td>
<td>6,280</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>5,913</td>
<td>5,441</td>
<td>4,995</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The National Association of Realtors reported that sales in May of existing homes declined a modest 0.7% to 7,130M versus the unrevised record during the prior month. Consensus expectations had been for roughly the same decline to [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Slipped

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050623a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 20,000 to 314,000 last week, the lowest level in two months. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims and the prior week&#39;s figure was revised up slightly.
The latest figure covers the survey period for nonfarm payrolls in June and was down 8,000 (-2.5%) from the May period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 75% correlation between the level of initial claims for unemployment insurance and the monthly change in payroll employment. There has been a (negative) 65% correlation with the level of continuing claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 333,000 (-3.5% y/y).
A 38,000 decline in continuing claims for unemployment insurance retraced most of the prior week&#39;s downwardly revised 56,000 jump.
The insured unemployment rate fell back to 2.0% from 2.1% the prior week.
More Life vs. More Goods: Explaining Rising Health Expenditures from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2005/el2005-10.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">06/18/05</th>
<th scope="col">06/11/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>314</td>
<td>334</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,600</td>
<td>-11.9%</td>
<td>2,926</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 20,000 to 314,000 last week, the lowest level in two months. Consensus expectations had been for 330,000 claims and the prior week's figure was revised up slightly. The latest [...]

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fell

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

251224A1.jpg

251224b1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 10,000 to 214,000 in the week of December 20, from 224,000 during the week of December 13. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 216,750, a decrease of 750 from the prior week’s unrevised 217,500.

Federal government employees initially filed 805 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 13, after filing 1091 claims in the week ended December 6.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 38,000 to 1.923 million in the week ending December 13, after rising 55,000 to 1.885 million, revised from 1.897 million in the week ending December 6. The four-week moving average was 1.894 million in the week ending December 13, down 5,250 from 1.899 million, revised from 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.3% in the week of December 13, up from 1.2% in the week of December 6.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,887 (NSA) in the week ending December 6, from 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29. 

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending December 6, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey and Washington (both 2.40%), Massachusetts and Minnesota (both 2.10%), California and Rhode Island (both 2.00%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), and Alabama, Louisiana, North Carolina (all 0.40%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.80%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.70%), and Texas (1.10%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


251224c1.jpg

251224e1.jpg

- Initial claims declined from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rose from the prior week.
- The insured unemployment rate edged up.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped in Latest Week

251224a0.jpg

251224b0.jpg

Mortgage applications dropped 5.0% w/w (+49.8% y/y) in the week of December 19, after a drop of 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 3.7% w/w (+15.9% y/y) in the latest week, the third consecutive weekly decline, following a drop of 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the December 12 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 5.6% w/w (+110.1% y/y) in the December 19 week after a decline of 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12. 

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 8bps to 6.48% in the week ending December 19 from 6.56% in the week ending December 12. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped 5bps to 5.86% in the latest week from 5.91% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 8bps to 6.63% in the December 19 week from 6.55% in the December 12 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM jumped 20bps to 5.96% in the latest week from 5.76% in the December 12 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan edged up to 59.1% of total applications in the December19 week from 59.0% in the week ending December 12. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 8.1% in the latest week from 7.2% in the December 12 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan edged down 0.1% w/w (+7.8% y/y) to $399,700 in the week ending December 19, following a rise of 1.5% w/w (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% w/w (1.1% y/y) to $428,600 in the latest week, after rising 0.6% w/w (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 0.9% w/w (+24.9% y/y) to $379,700 in the December 19 week, following a rise of 2.3% w/w (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.


- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in the latest week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans fell to 6.48%.
- Average loan size edged down.


U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Week of December 19

251223n8.jpg

251223c8.jpg

Real GDP grew 4.3% (SAAR) during the third quarter following a 3.8% Q2 gain, revised from 3.3% reported initially. These increases followed a minimally revised 0.6% decline in Q1. A 3.0% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.3% compared to 2.1% y/y in Q2 and remained below its most recent high of 3.4% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment surged 7.0% (4.2% y/y) last quarter after edging 0.6% higher in Q2. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 4.2% (9.1% y/y) after improving 0.2% in Q2. Financial sector earnings rose 6.2% (21.1% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q2. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.5% (3.3% y/y) after edging 0.5% higher in Q2. Earnings from abroad jumped 10.6% (26.3% y/y) following a 2.9% Q2  decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 1.59 percentage points to growth last quarter after adding 4.83 percentage points in Q2. Real exports increased 2.1% (1.5% y/y) after falling 0.5% in Q2. Real imports declined 1.2% (-1.8% y/y) after declining 8.3% in Q2. Inventories subtracted 0.22 percentage points from growth after subtracting 3.44 percentage point from Q2 growth.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.0% (2.6% y/y) last quartter after rising 2.9% in Q2, revised from 1.6%. Personal consumption expenditures rose 3.5% (2.6% y/y) after a 2.5% rise, revised from 1.6%. Durable goods spending rose 1.6% (3.2% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q2. Motor vehicle purchases declined 6.7% (+1.6% y/y) after strengthening 9.7% in Q2. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 4.2% (+0.7% y/y) following a 2.0% fall. Recreational goods & vehicle buying surged 15.7% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after falling 2.5% in Q2.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 3.9% (3.0% y/y) last quarter following 2.2% growth in Q2. Apparel spending strengthened 6.7% (7.0% y/y) following a 5.8% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.0% (1.3% y/y) after edging 0.2% higher. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases improved 1.3% (-0.2% y/y) after falling 2.8% in Q2.



251223o8.jpg

251223p8.jpg

Real spending on services increased 3.7% (2.4% y/y) in Q3 after a 2.6% Q2 gain. Outlays on housing & utilities edged 0.3% higher (1.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q2. Health care expenditures surged 6.8% (4.5% y/y) after a 4.8% increase. Transportation outlays gained 3.1% both  q/q and y/y after a 7.0% rise, while recreation spending jumped 6.6% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.9% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 1.2% (2.0% y/y) after strengthening 5.9% in Q2. Financial services expenditures rose 2.6% both q/q and y/y following a 4.8% Q2 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 2.8% (3.9% y/y) last  quarter following a 7.3% Q2 rise, revised from 5.7%. Expenditures on structures declined 6.3% both q/q and y/y, after falling for six consecutive quarters. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 5.4% (7.4% y/y), after strengthening 8.5% in Q2. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 8.4% (18.6% y/y), after strengthening 11.7% during Q2. Industrial equipment investment rose 2.0% (3.4% y/y) after a 6.5% rise. Transportation equipment investment fell  2.7% (+3.0% y/y) after strengthening 25.2%. Intellectual property product spending rose 5.4% last quarter (6.4% y/y), after surging 15.0% in Q2.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined 5.1% (-1.8% y/y), the same as in Q2. It was the third consecutive quartly decline.

Government spending rose 2.2% (1.1% y/y) during the third quarter after an unrevised 0.1% easing in Q2. Federal government expenditures rose 2.9% (-1.0% y/y) after falling 5.3% in Q2. National defense expenditures increased 5.8% (1.0% y/y) after rising 0.9% in Q2. State & local government spending rose 1.8% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.1% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose 3.8% (3.0% y/y) last quarter vs. 2.1% in Q2. The PCE chain price index increased 2.8% (2.7% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.9% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q2. The business fixed investment price index rose 5.2% (1.5% y/y) in Q3 after a 0.4% decline. The residential price index rose 4.5% (3.3% y/y) last quarter after a 2.2% rise, while the government price index increased 4.4% (3.5% y/y) following a 3.3% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.



251223q8.jpg

251223s8.jpg

- Consumer spending strengthens; growth in business investment decelerates.
- Corporate profit growth led by earnings abroad.
- Rise in chain price index accelerates.


U.S. GDP Growth is Strong in Q3; Profits Jump

Sandy Batten

251223r1.jpg

251223s1.jpg

Industrial production fell 0.1% m/m in October but rose 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y) in November. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 0.1% monthly gains in both months. Manufacturing activity was tepid with manufacturing production falling 0.4% m/m in October and unchanged in November. Manufacturing output has not posted a monthly gain since July. Mining output fell 0.8% m/m in October but rebounded 1.7% m/m in November. Utilities output surged 2.6% m/m in October but fell 0.4% m/m in November. Compared to a year ago, manufacturing production is up 1.9%; mining output is up 3.9%; and utilities output is up 4.8%.

By market group, output of durable consumer goods plunged 2.6% m/m in October and fell another 0.2% in November. Production of durable consumer goods has declined in five of the previous six months. Production of nondurable consumer goods rose 0.5% m/m in both October and November. Compared to a year ago, durable consumer goods production has fallen 5.9% while nondurable consumer goods output has risen 2.7%. Business equipment production fell 0.3% m/m in October but rebounded 0.3% m/m in November and is up 11.2% y/y. Production of nonindustrial supplies fell 0.3% m/m in both October and November.

By industry group, output of durable goods fell 0.5% m/m in October and declined 0.1% m/m in November but were up 3.2% from a year ago. Motor vehicle and parts production slumped 5.1% m/m in October and declined 1.0% m/m in November to be down 5.6% from a year ago. Monthly motor vehicle output has declined in five of the previous six months. In contrast, production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m in October and rose 0.8% m/m in November. Aerospace production continued to rise, increasing 2.0% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to be up 25.2% from a year ago. Output of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November. Their output is up 0.9% from a year ago. Apparel output fell 1.3% m/m in October but recovered in November, rising 2.3% m/m. Food and beverage output rose 0.3% m/m in October and another 1.2% in November.

Output of selected high-technology industries rebounded in October and November. After having declined 1.0% m/m in both August and September, production jumped 1.9% m/m in October and 1.1% m/m in November to stand 11.8% higher than a year ago. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.4% m/m in October and was unchanged in November. It has risen only 1.6% over the past year. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicle production was unchanged in October and edged up 0.1% m/m in November; it is up 2.6% y/y.

Total industry capacity utilization edged down to 75.9% in October from 76.0% in September and then recovered the decline in November, edging up to 76.0%. In the manufacturing sector, the utilization rate slumped to 75.4% in October from 75.8% in September and remained at 75.4% in November. The October/November reading is the lowest since January.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



251223t1.jpg

251223u1.jpg

- Today’s release contained figures for both October and November that had been delayed by the federal government shutdown.
- IP fell in October but recovered in November.
- Manufacturing output was tepid, falling in October and unchanged in November.
- A surge in utilities output in October prevented a larger decline in total production.
- A jump in mining output in November accounted for all of the increase in total production.


U.S. Industrial Production Fell in October and Recovered in November

251223v2.jpg

251223w2.jpg

New orders for durable goods fell a more-than-expected 2.2% (+4.8% y/y) in October following an upwardly revised 0.7% m/m rise in September (previously +0.5% m/m) and a 3.0% monthly jump in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 1.5% m/m decline. A 23.7% m/m drop in aircraft orders more than accounted for the overall decline. Orders excluding aircraft increased 0.2% m/m (4.0% y/y) in October on top of a 0.5% monthly increase in September.

More generally, transportation orders fell 6.5% m/m (+7.3% y/y) in October following a 0.6% m/m increase in September and an 8.0% monthly jump in August. In addition to the drop in aircraft orders, orders for motor vehicles and parts edged up 0.1% m/m in October, their sixth consecutive monthly increase. Across other sectors, orders for primary metals fell 0.7% m/m, their first monthly decline in ten months. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances slumped 1.5% m/m, their first monthly decline in seven months. In contrast, orders for fabricated metal products rose 0.5% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Machinery orders increased 0.8% m/m, their eighth consecutive monthly rise. Orders for computers and electronic products increased a solid 1.0% m/m on top of a 1.2% monthly increase in September.

Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They rose 0.7% m/m in October following an upwardly revised 1.2% monthly gain in September (previously +0.9%). The was the second consecutive monthly increase and the fifth in the past six months. The strong end to Q3 and the continued rise in the first month of Q4 provides a solid starting point for all of Q4. The October shipments figure was 5.9% at an annual rate above the Q3 average. Core capital goods orders rose 0.5% m/m in October on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m increase in September (previously +0.9%). This was the fourth consecutive monthly rise.

Total manufacturing shipments edged up 0.1% m/m (+2.8% y/y) in October after having been essentially unchanged in September. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.6% m/m (5.9% y/y), led by 1.4% monthly jump in transportation shipments. However, apart from a 0.1% m/m decline in shipments of other durable goods, all of the other major sectors posted monthly gains in October. In contrast, shipments of nondurable goods fell 0.4% m/m (-0.3% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly decline. The monthly decline was led by a 2.4% m/m fall in shipments of petroleum and coal products although it was relatively widely spread across major sectors. The one exception was a 2.1% m/m increase in leather product shipments, but this came after four consecutive sizeable monthly declines.

Unfilled durable goods orders increased 0.2% m/m (7.9% y/y) in October for their third consecutive monthly gain following a 0.8% m/m rise in September and a 0.7% m/m increase in August. Total factory inventories were unchanged in October (+1.4% y/y) following 0.1% monthly declines in both August and September. Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% m/m in October while inventories of nondurable goods fell 0.2% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.



251223x2.jpg

251223y2.jpg

- New orders for durable goods slumped 2.2% m/m in October following increases in both August and September
- A 24% monthly drop in aircraft orders drove the overall decline
- Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.2% m/m in October
- Core capital goods shipments and orders continued to rise in October with small upward revisions to September


Economy in Brief: 2005

Jump to:

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Indicates Trend US GDP Growth

Despite Strong Oil Revenues and Big US Exports, Mexican Trade Runs Overall Deficit

New Home Sales Up, Prices Down

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar

Consumers Fret Over Economic Situation in Italy & Netherlands

U.S. Existing Home Sales Slipped

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fell