Global| Jun 24 2005U.S. Durable Goods Orders Soar
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders for durable goods soared 5.5% in May, lifted by aircraft & parts orders which more than doubled m/m. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise. The 125% surge in orders for aircraft raised transportation equipment [...]
New orders for durable goods soared 5.5% in May, lifted by aircraft & parts orders which more than doubled m/m. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.5% rise.
The 125% surge in orders for aircraft raised transportation equipment orders by 21.2%. A 0.2% (-1.6%) gain in motor vehicles & parts also contributed.
Less transportation durable orders fell 0.2% (+6.6% y/y) for the third slight decline in the last four months. Computer & electronic equipment orders fell 1.2% (+5.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline, and machinery orders fell 1.9% (+8.7% y/y). Electrical equipment orders rose 0.3% (4.2% y/y) and "other" orders rose 1.8% (6.3% y/y).
Orders for non-defense capital goods rose 14.5% on the strength of the orders received by Boeing. Less aircraft capital goods orders fell 2.3% and shipments rose just 0.2% (12.2% y/y). During the last four months shipments have fallen 1.1%.
Durable inventories rose 0.3% (8.7% y/y) following no change in April. Less transportation inventories also rose 0.3% (9.8% y/y).
Unfilled orders jumped 1.9% (7.6% y/y) but outside of the transportation sector backlogs fell slightly (+7.7% y/y). The ratio of backlogs to shipments outside of transportation has been moving erratically sideways since early last year.
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| NAICS Classification | May | April | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 5.5% | 1.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 2.6% | -1.7% |
| Excluding Transportation | -0.2% | -0.7% | 6.6% | 13.1% | 3.2% | -4.2% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 14.5% | 4.0% | 28.2% | 13.7% | 5.6% | -7.2% |
| Excluding Aircraft | -2.3% | 1.7% | 8.9% | 11.7% | 6.6% | -7.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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