Economy in Brief: January 2021

• Purchase applications up but overwhelmed by decline in refinancing applications. • Mortgage interest rates generally rose, reflecting rise in most market rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell [...]

• Gasoline prices reach March 2020 high. • Oil prices increase as pandemic shuts down crude oil output. • Natural gas prices continue to rise with seasonal demand. The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y) in [...]

In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe. For the most part, country/regional level data are little changed. In the aggregate, data are very little changed. The details show a larger [...]

• Declines in home prices & interest rates boost buying power. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y) to 168.2 in November from 167.0 in October, [...]

• Empire State Business Conditions Index decreases to 3.5 in January; fourth consecutive monthly decay. • ISM comparable series edges up to 53.0 from 52.9. • Expectations index falls to 31.9 from 36.3. The Empire State Manufacturing [...]

• Business inventories rise for fifth straight month. • Sales ease after six months of increase. • Inventory-to-sales ratio remains at six-year low. Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y) following a [...]

The graphic tells a clear story of recent trends. Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum after they reached a 12-month growth-rate low in March. Growth rates for exports and imports are reviving with exports leading the [...]

• Production up 1.6% with widespread gains. • Durable goods up 1%, despite fall in motor vehicle output. • Capacity utilization has biggest gain since July. Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December, following an 0.5% increase [...]