Economy in Brief: January 2015

The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index fell 0.3% during December (+1.1% y/y) and followed an unrevised 0.2% November decline. A 0.4% decline was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Prices excluding food & energy [...]

Weak growth and a sharply falling currency have driven the EMU to its largest trade surplus on record. Clearly trade is not driving the currency but macroeconomic needs and the currency are driving trade results and deficits. The [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to track upward. During the week ended January 10, claims jumped to 316,000 (-4.0% y/y) from 297,000 in the week prior, revised from 294,000. The latest was the highest level since [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index surged by nearly one-half last week (27.4% y/y) as interest rates fell sharply. Applications to purchase a home gained one-quarter (2.6% y/y) and [...]

Total business inventories rose 0.2% in November (4.4% y/y), the same as in October, which was unrevised. Total business sales edged down 0.2% (+2.2% y/y) following a deepened 0.3% decline. The resulting inventory/sales ratio for [...]

Import prices declined 2.5% (-5.5% y/y) during December following a 1.8% November drop, earlier reported as -1.5%. It was the largest of six straight months of decline and matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

As we peruse the incoming data, we see new inflation reporters and a new EMU index for industrial production. EMU-wide inflation is still falling and negative year over year. While industrial output is still on a big broad decline, [...]

Overall retail sales including food services declined 0.9% (+3.2% y/y) during December following a 0.4% November increase, revised from 0.7%. No change in sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales [...]