Global| Jan 14 2015U.S. Retail Sales Post Broad-Based Declines Led by Lower Gasoline Prices
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall retail sales including food services declined 0.9% (+3.2% y/y) during December following a 0.4% November increase, revised from 0.7%. No change in sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales [...]
Overall retail sales including food services declined 0.9% (+3.2% y/y) during December following a 0.4% November increase, revised from 0.7%. No change in sales had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Sales excluding autos fell 1.0% (+1.9% y/y) after a 0.1% November uptick, revised from 0.5%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected. During all of last year, sales improved 4.0%, about the same as in 2013. Sales excluding autos gained 3.0% in 2014, also roughly the same as the year before. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in retail sales and the change in disposable personal income.
Lower gasoline prices pulled the value of total December sales lower with a 6.5% drop (-14.2% y/y), the seventh straight month of decline. Fewer auto sales also weighed on the total with a 0.7% falloff (+8.6% y/y) following a 1.6% gain. This retreat reflected a 1.7% drop in unit sales. In addition, sales of building materials were off 1.9% (+5.2% y/y). Sales excluding these three categories fell 0.2% (+4.0% y/y), the first decline since January. For all of last year, the 3.7% gain was improved from a 3.1% rise in 2013.
Sales of other discretionary goods were uneven last month. Sales of electronics & appliance stores declined 1.6% (+6.8% y/y), the second sharp drop in three months, but sales at furniture & home furnishings outlets gained 0.8% (5.8% y/y), the third rise in as many months. Falling by 0.9% (+1.4% y/y) were general merchandise store sales, the third drop in four months, and apparel store sales which were off 0.3% (+3.8% y/y) following a 2.2% jump. Nonstore retailers posted a 0.3% sales decline (+5.1% y/y), the first material drop since April. Sporting goods store sales fell 0.2% (+4.8% y/y), the first down month since May. To the upside were restaurant sales by 0.8% (8.2% y/y. Growth here has been strengthening since a modest 3.0% rise during all of 2013.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, health & personal care store sales grew 0.5% (6.1% y/y) and also moved 6.1% higher for the full year. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.3% (2.4% y/y), the same as the prior month. For the year, these sales gained a steady 2.9%.
The retail sales figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | -0.9 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| Excluding Autos | -1.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 4.3 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline & Building Supplies | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Retail Sales | -1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | -0.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 |
| Retail Less Autos | -1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| Gasoline Stations | -6.5 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -14.2 | -2.7 | -0.6 | 4.3 |
| Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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