Economy in Brief: June 2021

The data and the statistics in the table may not be so clear. But this month the plot of vehicle registrations in their raw form - not as percentage changes- shows exactly what is going on. The answer is that 'less and less' is what's [...]

• Component improvement in leader's index remains broad-based. • Coincident indicators continue to firm. • Lagging indicators' decline suggests more economic slack. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators [...]

• Increase in initial state claims is first since late-April. • Continuing state claims are roughly steady at pandemic low. • PUA claims continue to decline. Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 37,000 during the week [...]

• Headline index off recent highs but still quite elevated. • Shipments rose though new orders moderated. • Prices paid increased to highest since 1979. • Hiring plans for next six months rose to near-record high. The Federal Reserve [...]

The Federal Reserve left the target for the Fed funds rate in a range of 0.0% to 0.25% at today's meeting of the FOMC. The statement accompanying the meeting indicated, "Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in [...]

• Refinancing applications recover prior week's decline. • Purchase applications improve. • Mortgage interest rates ease again. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index increased 4.2% (-20.6% y/y) in the week ended [...]

• Increase is smaller-than-expected. • Single-family and multi-family starts improve modestly. • Building permits decline. Housing starts increased 3.6% (50.3% y/y) during May to 1.572 million units (SAAR) from 1.517 million in April, [...]

• May increases significantly exceeded expectations with upward revisions to April. • Highest y/y advance for export prices in series history, led by agricultural prices. • Higher fuel prices a major factor behind rise in import [...]