Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216f.jpg" width="353">
The Bank of Japan today reported third quarter flow-of-funds for the Japanese economy. These data, as other recent Japanese statistics, showed some positive economic tendencies. Use of credit is trending higher.
A turnaround in financing activity began about the third quarter of last year as seen in the chart alongside, when the year-to-year change in the nonfinancial sector&#39;s use of funds turned positive after a three-year contraction. The decrease in those liabilities in the third quarter need not indicate a reversion to weakness. As also evident in the graph, in most years of these data&#39;s short history, the third quarter has been the weakest. The year-to-year gain remains on a generally firming trend. The same is true for private corporate business in Japan, which experienced a substantial decline in debt usage from 2000 through 2002.
The details of the flow-of-funds also highlight developments in the foreign sector. These data are a mirror image of the balance-of-payments; the BOP data use a domestic perspective, so Japanese investment abroad is viewed as an asset of Japanese investors. But in the flow-of-funds, the &quot;overseas sector&quot; is seen from its point-of-view. Thus, Japanese investment abroad is treated as the overseas economy&#39;s liabilities. In the third quarter, these liabilities continued to grow vigorously. The other side, overseas investment in Japan, that is, the overseas sector&#39;s &quot;assets&quot; in Japan, decreased in Q3, although this followed an outsized rise in Q2. This made the year-on-year expansion a quite substantial 15.7% and extended the strong 9.1% growth during 2003. These significant gains in capital holdings in both directions highlight the globalization of capital resources and once again call attention to the fact that capital flows are not just a passive response to a nation&#39;s current account position.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">% Change, Not Seasonally Adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/ Year</th>
Year-End/Year-End
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Liabilities: Domestic Nonfinancial Sector </td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-2.3</td>
<td>-2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Private Nonfinancial Corporations</td>
<td>-3.0</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-8.1</td>
<td>-10.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Overseas Assets in Japan</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>-4.0</td>
<td>-3.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overseas Liabilities to Japan</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>-3.3</td>
<td>11.2</td>
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The Bank of Japan today reported third quarter flow-of-funds for the Japanese economy. These data, as other recent Japanese statistics, showed some positive economic tendencies. Use of credit is trending higher. A turnaround in [...]

Japan Financing Trends Remain Favorable, Despite Q3 Decline

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector improved in December to 29.6 from 20.7 the prior month. Only a slight rise to 21.1 had been the Consensus expectation.
During the last ten years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and three month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 53% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
Each of the sub indexes improved m/m with the exception of the index for inventories as well as for the number of employees.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months reversed about half of the sharp improvement in November and fell to 41.2.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216e.jpg" width="353">
The prices paid index fell for the second month, to 52.2, although expectations for prices surged. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the prices paid index and the three month growth in the PPI for intermediate goods. The correlation with the finished goods PPI has been 41% and with the CPI it&#39;s been 45%.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos1204.html">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>29.6</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>30.3</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>52.2</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>30.9</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>12.2</td>
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The Philadelphia Feds index of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector improved in December to 29.6 from 20.7 the prior month. Only a slight rise to 21.1 had been the Consensus expectation. During the last ten years [...]

Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Improved

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216b.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 43,000 to 317,000 and more than reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks. The latest was the lowest claims level since early July and the prior week was revised up slightly. The Consensus expectation had been for 345,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 337,750 (-8.2% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 50,000 following a downwardly revised 69,000 rise the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it&#39;s been since early October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/11/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/04/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>317</td>
<td>360</td>
<td>-12.4%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,737</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
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Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 43,000 to 317,000 and more than reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks. The latest was the lowest claims level since early July and the prior week was revised up [...]

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216c.jpg" width="353">
The US current account deficit deepened slightly in 3Q04 to a record $164.7B versus $164.4B the prior quarter, originally reported at $166.2B. Consensus expectations had been for a 3Q deficit of $171.0B. 
The deficit in merchandise trade deteriorated to $166.7B from an unrevised $163.6B in 2Q. A 14.8% y/y gain in exports lagged an 18.7% rise in imports.
The surplus on services fell to $11.4B from a downwardly revised to $12.5B in 2Q. Exports of services rose 9.7% y/y while imports rose 13.1%.
From the capital account, US foreign direct investment abroad fell to $43.5B (-3.8% y/y) and foreign direct investment in the US surged to $53.1B, the highest level since 2Q01. The balance of $9.6B was the first positive balance since 2Q01.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">US Int&#39;l Balance of Payments</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Current Account Deficit</td>
<td>$164.7B</td>
<td>$164.4B</td>
<td>$133.9B</td>
<td>$530.7B</td>
<td>$473.9B</td>
<td>$385.7B</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods/Services/Income Deficit</td>
<td>$150.1B</td>
<td>$146.0B</td>
<td>$115.0B</td>
<td>$463.2B</td>
<td>$414.6B</td>
<td>$339.1B</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-8.2%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unilateral Transfers Deficit</td>
<td>$14.6B</td>
<td>$18.3B</td>
<td>$16.6B</td>
<td>$67.4</td>
<td>$59.4B</td>
<td>$46.6B</td>
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The US current account deficit deepened slightly in 3Q04 to a record $164.7B versus $164.4B the prior quarter, originally reported at $166.2B. Consensus expectations had been for a 3Q deficit of $171.0B. The deficit in merchandise [...]

U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepened

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts in November fell a sharp 13.1% m/m to 1.771M, reversing all of a 7.0% rise in October.Consensus expectations had been for 1.98M starts. The latest was the lowest level of starts since May 2003.
Single-family starts fell 11.7% to 1.448M, also the lowest since May 2003, and multi-family starts dropped 19.0%.
Building permits fell 1.5% m/m to 1.988M after an upwardly revised gain October.
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) rose to 71 in December from a downwardly revised November level of 70.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The index of current single family home sales was stable at its highest in over a year and the index of expected sales in six months rose.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,771</td>
<td>2,039</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>1,8 53</td>
<td>1,7 10</td>
<td>1,601</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,448</td>
<td>1,640</td>
<td>-13.3%</td>
<td>1,505</td>
<td>1,3 63</td>
<td>1,272</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>3 23</td>
<td>399</td>
<td>-15.9%</td>
<td>348</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,988</td>
<td>2,018</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>1,8 89</td>
<td>1,749</td>
<td>1,637</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Housing starts in November fell a sharp 13.1% m/m to 1.771M, reversing all of a 7.0% rise in October.Consensus expectations had been for 1.98M starts. The latest was the lowest level of starts since May 2003. Single-family starts fell [...]

Housing Starts Fell Sharply

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts in November fell a sharp 13.1% m/m to 1.771M, reversing all of a 7.0% rise in October.Consensus expectations had been for 1.98M starts. The latest was the lowest level of starts since May 2003.
Single-family starts fell 11.7% to 1.448M, also the lowest since May 2003, and multi-family starts dropped 19.0%.
Building permits fell 1.5% m/m to 1.988M after an upwardly revised gain October.
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) rose to 71 in December from a downwardly revised November level of 70.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The index of current single family home sales was stable at its highest in over a year and the index of expected sales in six months rose.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,771</td>
<td>2,039</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>1,8 53</td>
<td>1,7 10</td>
<td>1,601</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single-family</td>
<td>1,448</td>
<td>1,640</td>
<td>-13.3%</td>
<td>1,505</td>
<td>1,3 63</td>
<td>1,272</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi-family</td>
<td>3 23</td>
<td>399</td>
<td>-15.9%</td>
<td>348</td>
<td>347</td>
<td>330</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Building Permits</td>
<td>1,988</td>
<td>2,018</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>1,8 89</td>
<td>1,749</td>
<td>1,637</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepened 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 16, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216c.jpg" width="353">
The US current account deficit deepened slightly in 3Q04 to a record $164.7B versus $164.4B the prior quarter, originally reported at $166.2B. Consensus expectations had been for a 3Q deficit of $171.0B. 
The deficit in merchandise trade deteriorated to $166.7B from an unrevised $163.6B in 2Q. A 14.8% y/y gain in exports lagged an 18.7% rise in imports.
The surplus on services fell to $11.4B from a downwardly revised to $12.5B in 2Q. Exports of services rose 9.7% y/y while imports rose 13.1%.
From the capital account, US foreign direct investment abroad fell to $43.5B (-3.8% y/y) and foreign direct investment in the US surged to $53.1B, the highest level since 2Q01. The balance of $9.6B was the first positive balance since 2Q01.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM">US Int&#39;l Balance of Payments</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account Deficit</td>
<td>$164.7B</td>
<td>$164.4B</td>
<td>$133.9B</td>
<td>$530.7B</td>
<td>$473.9B</td>
<td>$385.7B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods/Services/Income Deficit</td>
<td>$150.1B</td>
<td>$146.0B</td>
<td>$115.0B</td>
<td>$463.2B</td>
<td>$414.6B</td>
<td>$339.1B</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>16.1%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>19.8%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unilateral Transfers Deficit</td>
<td>$14.6B</td>
<td>$18.3B</td>
<td>$16.6B</td>
<td>$67.4</td>
<td>$59.4B</td>
<td>$46.6B</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 16, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216b.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 43,000 to 317,000 and more than reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks. The latest was the lowest claims level since early July and the prior week was revised up slightly. The Consensus expectation had been for 345,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 337,750 (-8.2% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 50,000 following a downwardly revised 69,000 rise the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it&#39;s been since early October.

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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/11/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/04/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>317</td>
<td>360</td>
<td>-12.4%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,737</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Improved 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 16, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector improved in December to 29.6 from 20.7 the prior month. Only a slight rise to 21.1 had been the Consensus expectation.
During the last ten years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and three month growth in factory sector industrial production. There has been a 53% correlation with q/q growth in real GDP.
Each of the sub indexes improved m/m with the exception of the index for inventories as well as for the number of employees.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months reversed about half of the sharp improvement in November and fell to 41.2.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041216e.jpg" width="353">
The prices paid index fell for the second month, to 52.2, although expectations for prices surged. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the prices paid index and the three month growth in the PPI for intermediate goods. The correlation with the finished goods PPI has been 41% and with the CPI it&#39;s been 45%.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos1204.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Dec &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>29.6</td>
<td>20.7</td>
<td>30.3</td>
<td>27.5</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>52.2</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>30.9</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>12.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041215d.jpg" width="353">
In the December TANKAN Survey, released today by the Bank of Japan, large Japanese manufacturers reported their overall business conditions at +22, off from September&#39;s +26 rating, but slightly more than the +21 they had forecast for this quarter. Large non-manufacturing concerns maintained their Q3 conditions, with +11, modestly beating their expectation of +10. All businesses in all size categories edged down to +1 from the +2 last quarter, but did marginally better than their forecast for a 0 rating, or flat business. Medium-sized firms fell moderately short of both their Q3 performance and their forecast for this quarter, but small firms improved, albeit still in negative territory.
Individual industries had really mixed results. Among large manufacturing firms, eight industries saw business soften this quarter, while five are improving and two maintaining their Q3 pace. There seems to be no general classification of strength or weakening: such diverse groups as textiles, nonferrous metals and shipbuilding slowed, while petroleum and several machinery categories picked up. In non-manufacturing industries, retailing was sluggish but did better than expected; wholesale activity was somewhat slower than in Q3, but that sector still had one of the highest growth rates.
Despite the reduced vigor of Japanese business conditions as shown in the TANKAN, the Japanese stock market and currency both firmed following publication of the report. Apparently investors focused on components describing expected profits and business investment. Large manufacturing companies now project that their profits are rising 24.0% this fiscal year (ending March 31), 5.1 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. They also anticipate raising investment outlays by 23.4%, 2.2 points more than forecast before and 18 points more than last year&#39;s growth. Both of these results would likely raise corporate valuations and enhance the health of Japan&#39;s economy.
In the Haver databases, we present the TANKAN data two ways. Owing to the restructuring of the survey classification scheme and new sampling last March, we have segregated the recent detail data into new series in the &quot;Japan&quot; database. In summary data in the &quot;G10&quot; database, we link the all industry-all enterprise data with the history that uses the old methodology. This broad aggregate is less affected by the Bank of Japan&#39;s reorganization of the categories. By this special, linked measure, even though the Q4 result is down a point from Q3, it is still, at +1, only the second positive reading since Q1 of 1992, nearly 13 years ago.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Business Conditions:&nbsp; % Favorable minus % Unfavorable</th>
December 2004
September 2004
June 2004
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Forecast &nbsp;for Mar</td>
<td>Actual</td>
<td>Forecast for Dec</td>
<td>Actual</td>
<td>Forecast for Sep</td>
<td>Actual</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Firms</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Large Firms*</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing (&quot;Headline Series&quot;)</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Medium-sized Firms**</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Small Firms***</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-18</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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In the December TANKAN Survey, released today by the Bank of Japan, large Japanese manufacturers reported their overall business conditions at +22, off from September's +26 rating, but slightly more than the +21 they had forecast for [...]

Japan "TANKAN" Eases in Q4, but Still Better Than Forecast

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041215c.jpg" width="353">
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey, mortgage applications slipped 1.0% last week and so far in December are 3.6% below the November average.
Purchase applications eased 0.4% after the prior week&#39;s 6.6% rise and in December are 3.9% ahead of November. During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance slid for the fifth week in the last six, by 2.0%, and are down 13.1% versus November.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.90% and the effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.35%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">12/10/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/03/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>689.0</td>
<td>696.2</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>488.9</td>
<td>490.9</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,852.4</td>
<td>1,890.6</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Survey, mortgage applications slipped 1.0% last week and so far in December are 3.6% below the November average. Purchase applications eased 0.4% after the prior week's 6.6% rise and [...]

Mortgage Applications Slip

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501J5.jpg

250501K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0 during March and 50.3 in February. It remained up from a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 47.8 for April. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Two of the five component indexes weakened last month. The April production index fell to 44.0 after declining to 48.3 in March. It was the lowest level since May 2020. A lessened 19.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.2% reported lower output. The inventories index declined to 50.8 last month from 53.4 in March. The index remained up from a low of 43.2 in October of last year.

Moving higher, the new orders index rose to 47.2 last month from 45.2 in March. The index remained below a January high of 55.1. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.7% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 46.5 from 44.7 in March. It was below a high of 50.3 in January. A greater 13.1% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while a fewer 16.2% indicated less. The supplier delivery index rose to 55.2 from 53.5 in March. A higher 16.6% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while a fairly steady 6.2% reported a quickening.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, edged up to 69.8 (NSA) in April after increasing to 69.4 in March. It was the highest level since June 2022, up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 49.2% of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a higher 9.7% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders index plummeted to 43.1 in April from 49.6 during March. It was down from the high of 52.4 in January. The imports index fell sharply to 47.1 from 50.1 in March. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. The order backlog index dropped to 43.7 (NSA) last month from 44.5 in March. It was the lowest level in five months.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250501L5.jpg

250501M5.jpg

- Declines in last three months follow earlier improvement.
- Production & inventories account for m/m shortfall.
- Prices index edges up to another three-year high.

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Indicates Contraction in April

Winnie Tapasanun

250501N.jpg

250501O.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.5% m/m in March after rises of 0.6% in February (+0.7% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.5% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The March reading was the first m/m fall following five straight m/m gains. A 0.3% m/m March rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate of increase decelerated to 2.8% in March, the lowest since May 2019, after registering at 3.4% in February and January. The latest y/y figure was lower than 8.7% in March 2024; thus, having remained below its recent high of 9.8% in January 2024 and a peak of 18.6% in April 2022.

Private construction slid 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) in March, down for the first time since September, following increases of 0.7% in February (+0.9% initially) and 0.1% in January (-0.7% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.4% (+2.8% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall in six months, after an unrevised 1.3% gain in February. Home improvement building dropped 1.2% (+13.4% y/y), the first m/m decline since December, following a 2.3% February gain; it was 41.1% of the residential private construction. Single-family building edged up 0.1% (-0.8% y/y), the smallest of seven consecutive m/m increases, after a 0.8% February rise; it was 46.6% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was essentially unchanged m/m (-12.1% y/y) in March following 15 straight m/m decreases; it was 12.3% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.8% (+1.6% y/y) in March after a 0.1% increase in February (+0.4% initially) and a 0.1% easing in January (-0.2% previously). The March fall reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-2.9%; +16.4% y/y), health care (-2.2%; -5.2% y/y), office (-1.8%; +2.7% y/y), educational (-1.7%; -4.2% y/y), lodging (-1.6%; -1.0% y/y), commercial (-1.0%; -5.8% y/y), manufacturing (-0.4%; +3.6% y/y), communication (-0.3%; +2.2% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; +7.0% y/y). In contrast, private constructions for amusement & recreation (1.5%; 7.0% y/y) and transportation (0.7%; 10.2% y/y) rose m/m in March.

The value of public construction declined 0.2% (+4.7% y/y) in March after holding steady in February (+0.2% initially), reflecting a 0.2% increase (-1.9% y/y) in residential public construction and a 0.2% easing (+4.8% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The March decline reflected m/m drops in the following nonresidential public constructions. These included utilities (-4.8%; -12.8% y/y), commercial (-1.6%; +40.3% y/y), amusement & recreation (-1.0%; +19.1% y/y), educational (-0.6%; +7.6% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (-0.6%; +10.6% y/y), and health care (-0.4%; +13.0% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.7% of public construction spending, fell 0.5% (-2.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since October, following a 0.9% increase in February. To the upside, the following public constructions rose m/m in March: office (1.6%; 6.0% y/y), transportation (1.4%; 7.3% y/y), public safety (0.7%; 4.1% y/y), conservation & development (0.6%; 4.7% y/y), and water supply (0.6%; 12.2% y/y).

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250501P.jpg

250501Q.jpg

- March construction spending -0.5% m/m; +2.8% y/y, the lowest y/y rate since May ’19.
- Residential private construction -0.4% m/m, led by a 1.2% drop in home improvement building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.8% m/m, down for the second month in three.
- Public sector construction -0.2% m/m, reflecting a 0.2% decline in nonresidential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Drops in March, the First M/M Fall Since September

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 in the week ended April 26 to 241,000, seasonally adjusted.  This is higher by 16,000 than the Action Economics Forecast Survey amount of 225,000 and is the largest amount since the week of February 22. The previous week’s actual count was revised up by 1,000 to 223,000, from 222,000 reported initially.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended April 19 was 1.916 million, up 83,000 from the prior week’s 1.833 million; that earlier amount was revised down by 8,000.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percentage of covered employment, was 1.3% in the April 19 week, following 1.2% continuously since the week of January 6, 2024.

Economic conditions vary widely across states and territories.  In the week ended April 12, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.39%), California (2.24%), Washington (2.19%), Rhode Island (2.17%) and Massachusetts (1.93%).  The lowest rates were in Florida (0.35%), South Dakota (0.40%), Alabama (0.41%), Virginia (0.45%) and Tennessee (0.48%).  Rates in other notable states include the Illinois (1.85%), New York (1.71%), Pennsylvania (1.54%) and Texas (1.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in U**SECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Actual initial claims amount is 16,000 more than forecast.
- Total beneficiaries rose by 83,000.
- Insured unemployment rate ticked up to 1.3% after 15 months at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Rise Notably in April 28 Week

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

Economy in Brief: December 2004

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Japan Financing Trends Remain Favorable, Despite Q3 Decline

Philadelphia Fed Activity Index Improved

Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped Sharply

U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepened

Housing Starts Fell Sharply

Housing Starts Fell Sharply

Japan "TANKAN" Eases in Q4, but Still Better Than Forecast

Mortgage Applications Slip