Global| Dec 16 2004Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Dropped Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 43,000 to 317,000 and more than reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks. The latest was the lowest claims level since early July and the prior week was revised up [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped a sharp 43,000 to 317,000 and more than reversed all of the gains during the prior two weeks. The latest was the lowest claims level since early July and the prior week was revised up slightly. The Consensus expectation had been for 345,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 337,750 (-8.2% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped 50,000 following a downwardly revised 69,000 rise the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2%, where it's been since early October.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/11/04 | 12/04/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 317 | 360 | -12.4% | 402 | 404 | 406 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,737 | -17.8% | 3,531 | 3,570 | 3,018 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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