Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031104d.jpg" width="353">
The INSEE indicator of confidence among French households fell to -29, after holding steady at -27 for the five months, May through September. Rising unemployment so far this year has probably been an important dampener on consumer confidence. The employment situation is an important factor in shaping the opinions of the various components of the overall confidence measure
The INSEE indicator of French Household confidence is an average of the trends in the opinions of French households on such matters as their present and future financial situation, buying plans, ability to save, price trends and unemployment prospects. The individual opinions are expressed as the balance of rising versus declining trends or favorable versus unfavorable outlooks. In the case of future unemployment prospects, the balance between those expecting rising unemployment and those expecting declining unemployment was 62, a slight improvement over the 63 registered in September. In the case of buying plans, the balance between those who believe it is a good time to make major purchases and those who do not, became more unfavorable in October, going to -18 from -16 in September.
Except for a few months in early 2000, the indicator has never been positive. At the current, -29, the overall indicator is some ten points lower than the average of the series to date.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">SEP 2003</th>
<th scope="col"> AUG 2003 </th>
<th scope="col">SEP 2002</th>
<th scope="col"> M/M&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">French unemployment Rate</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>9.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>OCT 2003</td>
<td>SEP 2003</td>
<td>OCT 2002&nbsp;</td>
<td> M/M&nbsp; %</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp; %</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overall Consumer Confidence in France&nbsp;</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Future employment prospects</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Good time to make major purchases</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Future financial situation</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The INSEE indicator of confidence among French households fell to -29, after holding steady at -27 for the five months, May through September. Rising unemployment so far this year has probably been an important dampener on consumer [...]

French Households Become Less Confident in October

Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031104c.jpg" width="353">
Light vehicle sales fell more than expected in October for the second consecutive month. Vehicle sales fell 6.5% m/m to 15.64M after falling 12.0% m/m in September from a two year high. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.5M.
Car sales fell hard, down 7.4% to 6.98M units. That was the lowest level of car sales since December of 1970.
Sales of light trucks slid for the second month, to 8.66M. That was down 5.7% to the lowest level since March.
Domestic light vehicle sales fell 6.2% to a 12.58M unit selling rate. Sales of cars fell to a near record low.
Imported vehicle sales also were weak, falling 7.4% m/m to the lowest sales rate in a year.
Imports captured 19.5% of the US market for new vehicles in October, the same share as last year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM"> Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>15.64</td>
<td>16.72</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>16.81</td>
<td>17.26</td>
<td>17.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>6.98</td>
<td>7.54</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>8.07</td>
<td>8.48</td>
<td>8.83</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Light Trucks</td>
<td>8.66</td>
<td>9.18</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>8.74</td>
<td>8.78</td>
<td>8.56</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoffs Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 4, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031104b.jpg" width="353">
According to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas, announced job cuts more than doubled in October versus September. In recent years, layoff announcements have similarly surged in October.
The three month moving average of job cut announcements jumped to the highest level since April.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs in that many are achieved through attrition or just never occur.
During the last ten years there has been an 83% (inverse) correlation between the three month average level of announced job cuts and the y/y percent change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements surged m/m in the commodities (597.6% y/y), automotive (180.5% y/y), insurance (7.5% y/y), telecommunications (-37.8% y/y) and financial (-40.9% y/y) industries.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM"> Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>171,874</td>
<td>76,506</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
<td>1,956,876</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Recover 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 4, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031104a.jpg" width="353">
In the week ended November 1, chain store sales recovered 0.5% of the previous week&#39;s 0.9% drop according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
Despite the latest rise, sales for the full month of October fell 0.6% versus September. That followed a 0.8% m/m decline in September.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in the BTM-UBSW measure of chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The BTM-UBSW retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/01/03</th>
<th scope="col">10/25/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>420.3</td>
<td>418.4</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Light vehicle sales fell more than expected in October for the second consecutive month. Vehicle sales fell 6.5% m/m to 15.64M after falling 12.0% m/m in September from a two year high. Consensus expectations had been for sales of [...]

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Broadly Weak

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031103c.jpg" width="353">
The PMI index for the manufacturing sector of the Euro-zone rose for the fourth consecutive month in October. Moreover, the index was above 50 in September and October. A reading above 50 means that activity in the manufacturing sector is in an expansionary phase whereas a reading below 50 means that business is in a contractionary phase.
The PMI index tends to lead the manufacturing sector of the Industrial Production index.
Although the data suggest that the area, as a whole, is only in the early stages of expansion, indexes, available* for France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain and Greece, show that the move to an expansionary stage is widespread. The indexes for Greece, Austria and Spain declined slightly in October, but they remained above the 50 mark.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Purchasing Managers Survey</th>
<th scope="col">AUG 2003</th>
<th scope="col">JULY 2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro-zone</td>
<td>51.32</td>
<td>50.09</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>50.96</td>
<td>48.60</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>51.18</td>
<td>20.22</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>51.79</td>
<td>49.79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands</td>
<td>51.43</td>
<td>51.31</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Ireland</td>
<td>52.40</td>
<td>50.44</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>50.28</td>
<td>50.69</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Austria</td>
<td>54.31</td>
<td>54.41</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Greece</td>
<td>50.21</td>
<td>51.36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The PMI index for the manufacturing sector of the Euro-zone rose for the fourth consecutive month in October. Moreover, the index was above 50 in September and October. A reading above 50 means that activity in the manufacturing [...]

More Indicators of Optimism in the Euro-zone

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031103a.jpg" width="353">
The Purchasing Managers&#146; Composite Index (PMI) released by the Institute of Supply Management rose more than expected to 57.0 in October from 53.7 in September. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 55.5.
During the last twenty years there has been a 63% correlation between the level of the PMI Composite Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
The index for new orders (64.3) surged nearly four points to the highest level since 1994. The production index (62.6) jumped more than five points to the highest level since 1997.
The employment index (47.7) rose moderately to the highest level this year. This index has not been above 50, the dividing line between rising and falling payrolls, since September 2000. There has been a 71% correlation during the last ten years between the ISM employment index and the one-month change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index rose last month to 58.5. There has been a 28% correlation between the prices paid index and the y/y change in the finished goods PPI over the last ten years. The correlation with the intermediate materials PPI has been a higher 62%.
A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco asking &quot;Is Our IT Manufacturing Edge Drifting Overseas?&quot; can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2003/el2003-30.html">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM"> ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Oct &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">Sep &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>57.0</td>
<td>53.7</td>
<td>49.7</td>
<td>52.4</td>
<td>44.0</td>
<td>51.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders Index</td>
<td>64.3</td>
<td>60.4</td>
<td>52.2</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>46.2</td>
<td>52.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
<td>58.5</td>
<td>56.0</td>
<td>59.5</td>
<td>57.6</td>
<td>42.9</td>
<td>64.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Construction Spending Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 3, 2003


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031103b.jpg" width="353">
The value of total construction put in place jumped 1.3% in September and prior months&#39; figures were revised up sharply due to raised figures for private sector building. A 0.3% gain had been expected by the Consensus.
Private residential building activity surged 1.4% following strong gains in the prior two months. The gain was led by a 2.0% (15.9% y/y) jump in single family home building.
Nonresidential building activity recovered 2.5% following a 1.5% August drop that was revised shallower from the initial report. Office building activity rose 1.7% (-13.7% y/y) but it has moved in a tight, depressed range for all of this year. Commercial construction slumped 1.5% (+0.1% y/y) and gave back all of the strong gains in the prior two months.
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM"> Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-13.0%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Purchasing Managers Composite Index (PMI) released by the Institute of Supply Management rose more than expected to 57.0 in October from 53.7 in September. Consensus expectations were for a reading of 55.5. During the last twenty [...]

ISM Factory Index Higher, Orders Strong

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250701F5.jpg

250701G5.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

250701H5.jpg

250701I5.jpg

- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

250701J20.jpg

250701K20.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector improved to 49.0 in June from 48.5 during May and from 48.7 in April. The index stood below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.6 for June. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, two improved m/m. The June production index rose to 50.3 from 45.4 in May. It was the highest level in four months. Twenty one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 18.7% reported lower. The inventory series improved to 49.2 from 46.7 in May. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondent reported higher inventories while 19.5% reported lower.

Offsetting these increases, the new orders series declined to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. It was below the high of 55.1 reached in January. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 27.3% indicated lower. The employment series fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. It remained below a January high of 50.3. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 17.5% reported less. The supplier delivery series eased to 54.2 last month from 56.1 in May. Fifteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower delivery speeds while 6.3% indicated faster speeds.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, improved to 69.7 (NSA) in June, and reversed its decline to 69.4 in May. It remained up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 45.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, while a steady 6.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading surged to 46.3 in June from 40.1 in May. It remained below its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also rose sharply to 47.4, reversing its decline to 39.0 in May. The order backlog reading declined to 44.3 (NSA) last month from 47.1 in May. It remained well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250701L20.jpg

250701M20.jpg

- Reading remains below expansion level for fourth straight month.
- Production & inventory readings improve; new orders & employment weaken.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Edges Higher in June

Winnie Tapasanun

250701N25.jpg

250701O25.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m in May after revised declines of 0.2% in April (-0.4% initially) and 0.7% in March (-0.8% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The May reading was the seventh consecutive m/m fall. A 0.3% m/m May increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -3.5% in May following -2.8% in April, registering the fourth successive y/y decline and the deepest since May 2011 (-5.9% y/y). The latest y/y number compared to a positive 7.8% in May 2024; thus, having remained well below its recent high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. (Note: Today the Census Bureau released standard annual revisions along with May 2025 construction spending data. NSA series were revised back to 2023, and SA series were revised back to 2018.)

Private construction slid 0.5% (-5.4% y/y) in May, the ninth straight m/m slide, after decreases of 0.5% in April (-0.7% initially) and 1.1% in March (-1.0% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.5% (-6.7% y/y) in May, down for the fifth consecutive month, on top of a 0.5% fall in April (-0.9% initially). Single-family building fell 1.8% (-4.5% y/y), the third successive m/m fall, after a 1.5% April decline; it was 47.4% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building, however, rose 0.9% (-7.8% y/y) following a 0.7% April rise and three straight m/m decreases; it was 39.7% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was virtually unchanged (-10.9% y/y) after a 0.1% April easing and three consecutive m/m increases; it was 12.9% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.4% (-3.9% y/y) in May, down for the third successive month, after a 0.6% drop in April (-0.5% initially). The May fall reflected m/m declines in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-1.7%; +11.6% y/y), lodging (-1.3%; -8.3% y/y), transportation (-0.9%; -3.8% y/y), commercial (-0.8%; -12.0% y/y), utilities (-0.6%; +0.6% y/y), office (-0.2%; +0.8% y/y), educational (-0.1%; -4.3% y/y), and manufacturing (-0.1%; -3.8% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in May: health care (0.4%; -3.8% y/y), communication (0.3%; -1.5% y/y), and amusement & recreation (0.3%; -1.6% y/y).

The value of public construction edged up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) in May, the third straight m/m increase, after a 0.6% rise in April (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 1.4% gain (8.4% y/y) in residential public construction and no change (3.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The following nonresidential public construction subcategories registered m/m gains in May. These included public safety (0.8%; 6.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.7%; 8.6% y/y), transportation (0.6%; 7.4% y/y), conservation & development (0.5%; 5.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.5%; 9.6% y/y), health care (0.4%; 15.1% y/y), and educational (0.2%; -0.3% y/y). In contrast, the following nonresidential public constructions fell m/m in May: commercial (-1.5%; +29.1% y/y), office (-0.5%; +2.1% y/y), water supply (-0.5%; +6.1% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; -9.8% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.0% of public construction spending, fell 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) in May, the first m/m fall since February, following a 0.9% increase in April.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250701P25.jpg

250701Q25.jpg

- Headline: -0.3% m/m, the seventh straight m/m fall; -3.5% y/y, the deepest y/y drop since May ’11.
- Residential private construction -0.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% fall in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m slide.
- Public sector construction +0.1% m/m, led by a 1.4% gain in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Registers a String of Declines in May

Sandy Batten

250701X.jpg

250701Y.jpg

Job openings jumped 374,000 (-1.7% y/y) in May to 7.769 million, the highest level since last November, versus 7.395 million in April, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The market consensus had expected a slight decline to 7.3 million in May. The job openings rate increased to 4.6% in May from 4.4% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 4.3% and 4.8% over the past year. The record high for this rate was 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. The number of openings in May was 532,000 higher than the number of people unemployed, an increase from 229,000 in April and 117,000 in March, pointing to a little less softening of labor-market conditions.

Private sector openings increased 374,000 (+1.2% y/y) to 6.936 million in May, the second consecutive monthly rise. This was the first y/y increase since July 2022. The private openings rate rose to 4.9% in May from 4.6% in April. The May increase in private openings was led by a 279,000 increase in leisure and hospitality openings, the first monthly gain in five months. Manufacturing saw a 22,000 increase in openings, only the second monthly increase in the past eight months. Openings in private educational and health services rose 47,000 in May on top of a 204,000 jump in April. Federal government openings slumped 39,000, the largest monthly decline since June 2024 while state and local government openings increased by 40,000.

Total hiring fell 112,000 (-1.3% y/y) to 5.503 million in My from 5.615 million in April. This was the first monthly decline in three months and the largest since last October. The hiring rate edged down to 3.4% in May from 3.5% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 3.3% and 3.5% for nearly a year. Private sector hiring declined 95,000 in May after having jumped 204,000 in April. The May decline was the first one in six months and was widely spread across sectors. New hiring in private educational and health services fell 83,000 in May; professional and business services hiring fell 47,000. In contrast, leisure and hospitality hiring rose 121,000, the third consecutive monthly increase. Government hiring fell 18,000 with declines in both federal and state & local government hiring.

Total separations fell 71,000 (-1.4% y/y) to 5.242 million in May from 5.313 million in April. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.3%, where it has been for the past four months. Quits rose 78,000 (-1.8% y/y) to 3.293 million in May from 3.215 million in April after falling 129,000 in April. Layoffs and discharges fell 188,000 (-3.8% y/y) to 1.601 million in May from 1.789 million in April, just short of offsetting a 199,000 increase in April. Other separations rose 40,000 (+18.7% y/y) to 349,000 in May from 309,000 in April. Total private separations fell 89,000 to 4.892 million in May with a 69,000 increase in private quits, a 202,000 decline in layoffs and a 45,000 increase in other separations.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings increased 374,000 in May, the largest monthly gain since last November.
- Hiring fell 112,000, the largest monthly decline since last October.
- Separations fell 71,000, led by a 202,000 decline in layoffs.

JOLTS: Job Openings Jumped but Hiring Fell in May

250701C0.jpg

250701D0.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades declined to an average $3.29 per gallon (-8.5% y/y) last week after rising to $3.34 in the prior week. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Its all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eased to $3.73 per gallon (-2.3% y/y) in the week of June 30 after rising to $3.78 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $65.71 per barrel (-19.5% y/y) in the week ended June 27 as tensions in the Middle East eased. The decline more than reversed the prior week’s runup to $74.17 per barrel, but remained up from a low $59.04 low in the second week of May 2025. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $65.11 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude fell to $69.96 per barrel (-19.3% y/y) in the week of June 27 after rising to $78.25 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $68.15 per barrel.

Natural gas prices rose last week to an average $3.30 per mmbtu (31.0% y/y) in the week ended June 27, after increasing to an average $3.08/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.26 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 0.2% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 following a 0.9% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 after a 0.3% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 0.9% y/y in the four weeks ending June 20 after a 0.9% y/y weakening in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories fell 2.5% y/y in the week ending June 20 after a 0.5% y/y decline in the week ending June 13. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 20.3% y/y in the week of June 20, after a 21.9% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories declined 1.8% y/y in the week of June 20 after a 0.6% y/y easing in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 25.0 days in the week of June 20 from 25.4 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil fell to 24.4 days in the week of June 20 from 25.0 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices retreat.
- Crude oil costs decline sharply.
- Natural gas prices move up.

U.S. Energy Prices are Mixed in Latest Week

Economy in Brief: November 2003

Jump to:

French Households Become Less Confident in October

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Broadly Weak

More Indicators of Optimism in the Euro-zone

ISM Factory Index Higher, Orders Strong