Louise Curley

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<p><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031103c.jpg" width="353"></p>
<p>The PMI index for the manufacturing sector of the Euro-zone rose for the fourth consecutive month in October. Moreover, the index was above 50 in September and October. A reading above 50 means that activity in the manufacturing sector is in an expansionary phase whereas a reading below 50 means that business is in a contractionary phase.</p>
<p>The PMI index tends to lead the manufacturing sector of the Industrial Production index.</p>
<p>Although the data suggest that the area, as a whole, is only in the early stages of expansion, indexes, available* for France, Germany, Italy, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain and Greece, show that the move to an expansionary stage is widespread. The indexes for Greece, Austria and Spain declined slightly in October, but they remained above the 50 mark.</p>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>Purchasing Managers Survey</b></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>AUG 2003</b></u></th>
<th scope="col"><u><b>JULY 2003</b></u></th>
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<td class="firstcol">Euro-zone</td>
<td>51.32</td>
<td>50.09</td>
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<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>50.96</td>
<td>48.60</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>51.18</td>
<td>20.22</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>51.79</td>
<td>49.79</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Netherlands</td>
<td>51.43</td>
<td>51.31</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Ireland</td>
<td>52.40</td>
<td>50.44</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>50.28</td>
<td>50.69</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Austria</td>
<td>54.31</td>
<td>54.41</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Greece</td>
<td>50.21</td>
<td>51.36</td>
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The PMI index for the manufacturing sector of the Euro-zone rose for the fourth consecutive month in October. Moreover, the index was above 50 in September and October. A reading above 50 means that activity in the manufacturing [...]

More Indicators of Optimism in the Euro-zone

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Tom Moeller

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U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

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The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector improved to 49.0 in June from 48.5 during May and from 48.7 in April. The index stood below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.6 for June. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, two improved m/m. The June production index rose to 50.3 from 45.4 in May. It was the highest level in four months. Twenty one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 18.7% reported lower. The inventory series improved to 49.2 from 46.7 in May. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondent reported higher inventories while 19.5% reported lower.

Offsetting these increases, the new orders series declined to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. It was below the high of 55.1 reached in January. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 27.3% indicated lower. The employment series fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. It remained below a January high of 50.3. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 17.5% reported less. The supplier delivery series eased to 54.2 last month from 56.1 in May. Fifteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower delivery speeds while 6.3% indicated faster speeds.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, improved to 69.7 (NSA) in June, and reversed its decline to 69.4 in May. It remained up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 45.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, while a steady 6.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading surged to 46.3 in June from 40.1 in May. It remained below its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also rose sharply to 47.4, reversing its decline to 39.0 in May. The order backlog reading declined to 44.3 (NSA) last month from 47.1 in May. It remained well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Reading remains below expansion level for fourth straight month.
- Production & inventory readings improve; new orders & employment weaken.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Edges Higher in June

Winnie Tapasanun

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The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m in May after revised declines of 0.2% in April (-0.4% initially) and 0.7% in March (-0.8% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The May reading was the seventh consecutive m/m fall. A 0.3% m/m May increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -3.5% in May following -2.8% in April, registering the fourth successive y/y decline and the deepest since May 2011 (-5.9% y/y). The latest y/y number compared to a positive 7.8% in May 2024; thus, having remained well below its recent high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. (Note: Today the Census Bureau released standard annual revisions along with May 2025 construction spending data. NSA series were revised back to 2023, and SA series were revised back to 2018.)

Private construction slid 0.5% (-5.4% y/y) in May, the ninth straight m/m slide, after decreases of 0.5% in April (-0.7% initially) and 1.1% in March (-1.0% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.5% (-6.7% y/y) in May, down for the fifth consecutive month, on top of a 0.5% fall in April (-0.9% initially). Single-family building fell 1.8% (-4.5% y/y), the third successive m/m fall, after a 1.5% April decline; it was 47.4% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building, however, rose 0.9% (-7.8% y/y) following a 0.7% April rise and three straight m/m decreases; it was 39.7% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was virtually unchanged (-10.9% y/y) after a 0.1% April easing and three consecutive m/m increases; it was 12.9% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.4% (-3.9% y/y) in May, down for the third successive month, after a 0.6% drop in April (-0.5% initially). The May fall reflected m/m declines in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-1.7%; +11.6% y/y), lodging (-1.3%; -8.3% y/y), transportation (-0.9%; -3.8% y/y), commercial (-0.8%; -12.0% y/y), utilities (-0.6%; +0.6% y/y), office (-0.2%; +0.8% y/y), educational (-0.1%; -4.3% y/y), and manufacturing (-0.1%; -3.8% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in May: health care (0.4%; -3.8% y/y), communication (0.3%; -1.5% y/y), and amusement & recreation (0.3%; -1.6% y/y).

The value of public construction edged up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) in May, the third straight m/m increase, after a 0.6% rise in April (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 1.4% gain (8.4% y/y) in residential public construction and no change (3.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The following nonresidential public construction subcategories registered m/m gains in May. These included public safety (0.8%; 6.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.7%; 8.6% y/y), transportation (0.6%; 7.4% y/y), conservation & development (0.5%; 5.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.5%; 9.6% y/y), health care (0.4%; 15.1% y/y), and educational (0.2%; -0.3% y/y). In contrast, the following nonresidential public constructions fell m/m in May: commercial (-1.5%; +29.1% y/y), office (-0.5%; +2.1% y/y), water supply (-0.5%; +6.1% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; -9.8% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.0% of public construction spending, fell 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) in May, the first m/m fall since February, following a 0.9% increase in April.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Headline: -0.3% m/m, the seventh straight m/m fall; -3.5% y/y, the deepest y/y drop since May ’11.
- Residential private construction -0.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% fall in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m slide.
- Public sector construction +0.1% m/m, led by a 1.4% gain in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Registers a String of Declines in May

Sandy Batten

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Job openings jumped 374,000 (-1.7% y/y) in May to 7.769 million, the highest level since last November, versus 7.395 million in April, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The market consensus had expected a slight decline to 7.3 million in May. The job openings rate increased to 4.6% in May from 4.4% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 4.3% and 4.8% over the past year. The record high for this rate was 7.4% reached in March 2022. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings. The number of openings in May was 532,000 higher than the number of people unemployed, an increase from 229,000 in April and 117,000 in March, pointing to a little less softening of labor-market conditions.

Private sector openings increased 374,000 (+1.2% y/y) to 6.936 million in May, the second consecutive monthly rise. This was the first y/y increase since July 2022. The private openings rate rose to 4.9% in May from 4.6% in April. The May increase in private openings was led by a 279,000 increase in leisure and hospitality openings, the first monthly gain in five months. Manufacturing saw a 22,000 increase in openings, only the second monthly increase in the past eight months. Openings in private educational and health services rose 47,000 in May on top of a 204,000 jump in April. Federal government openings slumped 39,000, the largest monthly decline since June 2024 while state and local government openings increased by 40,000.

Total hiring fell 112,000 (-1.3% y/y) to 5.503 million in My from 5.615 million in April. This was the first monthly decline in three months and the largest since last October. The hiring rate edged down to 3.4% in May from 3.5% in April. This rate has fluctuated between 3.3% and 3.5% for nearly a year. Private sector hiring declined 95,000 in May after having jumped 204,000 in April. The May decline was the first one in six months and was widely spread across sectors. New hiring in private educational and health services fell 83,000 in May; professional and business services hiring fell 47,000. In contrast, leisure and hospitality hiring rose 121,000, the third consecutive monthly increase. Government hiring fell 18,000 with declines in both federal and state & local government hiring.

Total separations fell 71,000 (-1.4% y/y) to 5.242 million in May from 5.313 million in April. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.3%, where it has been for the past four months. Quits rose 78,000 (-1.8% y/y) to 3.293 million in May from 3.215 million in April after falling 129,000 in April. Layoffs and discharges fell 188,000 (-3.8% y/y) to 1.601 million in May from 1.789 million in April, just short of offsetting a 199,000 increase in April. Other separations rose 40,000 (+18.7% y/y) to 349,000 in May from 309,000 in April. Total private separations fell 89,000 to 4.892 million in May with a 69,000 increase in private quits, a 202,000 decline in layoffs and a 45,000 increase in other separations.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database.

- Job openings increased 374,000 in May, the largest monthly gain since last November.
- Hiring fell 112,000, the largest monthly decline since last October.
- Separations fell 71,000, led by a 202,000 decline in layoffs.

JOLTS: Job Openings Jumped but Hiring Fell in May