Louise Curley

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/031104d.jpg" width="353">
The INSEE indicator of confidence among French households fell to -29, after holding steady at -27 for the five months, May through September. Rising unemployment so far this year has probably been an important dampener on consumer confidence. The employment situation is an important factor in shaping the opinions of the various components of the overall confidence measure
The INSEE indicator of French Household confidence is an average of the trends in the opinions of French households on such matters as their present and future financial situation, buying plans, ability to save, price trends and unemployment prospects. The individual opinions are expressed as the balance of rising versus declining trends or favorable versus unfavorable outlooks. In the case of future unemployment prospects, the balance between those expecting rising unemployment and those expecting declining unemployment was 62, a slight improvement over the 63 registered in September. In the case of buying plans, the balance between those who believe it is a good time to make major purchases and those who do not, became more unfavorable in October, going to -18 from -16 in September.
Except for a few months in early 2000, the indicator has never been positive. At the current, -29, the overall indicator is some ten points lower than the average of the series to date.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">SEP 2003</th>
<th scope="col"> AUG 2003 </th>
<th scope="col">SEP 2002</th>
<th scope="col"> M/M&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">French unemployment Rate</td>
<td>9.7</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>9.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.7</td>
<td>9.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>OCT 2003</td>
<td>SEP 2003</td>
<td>OCT 2002&nbsp;</td>
<td> M/M&nbsp; %</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp; %</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
<td>2000</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Overall Consumer Confidence in France&nbsp;</td>
<td>-29</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Future employment prospects</td>
<td>62</td>
<td>63</td>
<td>54</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>50</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Good time to make major purchases</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Future financial situation</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The INSEE indicator of confidence among French households fell to -29, after holding steady at -27 for the five months, May through September. Rising unemployment so far this year has probably been an important dampener on consumer [...]

French Households Become Less Confident in October

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Winnie Tapasanun

250702A13.jpg

250702B13.jpg

Mortgage applications rose 2.7% w/w (24.7% y/y) in the week ending June 27 after a 1.1% rise in the week ending June 20, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading was the third w/w rise in four weeks to the index level of 257.5, the highest since the April 11 week. Applications for loans to purchase a house inched up 0.1% (15.7% y/y) in the June 27 week, the first w/w increase in three weeks, following a 0.4% decline in the June 20 week. Applications for loan refinancing advanced 6.5% (39.6% y/y) in the June 27 week, up for the third week in four, after a 3.0% rebound in the previous week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan fell 9bps to 6.97% in the week ending June 27 after rising to 7.06% in the week ending June 20; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages declined 6bps to 6.23% in the June 27 week after easing to 6.29% in the previous week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week but down from a high of 7.44% in the week of October 27, 2023. The rate on 30-year jumbo loans dropped 16bps to 6.89% in the June 27 week after rising to 7.05% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.99% in the week of October 27, 2023. These mentioned three rates were at the lowest since the April 4 week. The rate on a 5-year ARM decreased 15bps to 6.21% in the June 27 week, the lowest since the May 2 week, after rising to 6.36% in the previous week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week but below a high of 7.31% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 40.1% of total applications in the week ending June 27 from 38.4% in the week ending June 20, registering the fifth consecutive w/w rise and the highest since the April 11 week; nevertheless, that was well below a peak of 55.7% in the September 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity, up for the first week in three, increased to 7.8% in the June 27 week, the highest since the May 2 week, after declining to 6.9% in the prior week; it was up from a low of 4.7% in the January 3 week but below its recent high of 9.6% in the April 11 week and a high of 10.7% in the week of October 27, 2023.

The average size of a mortgage loan, up for the first time in three weeks, rose 3.5% w/w (4.4% y/y) to $391,500 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 9 week, after a 0.5% decline to $378,300 in the June 20 week. The average size of a purchase loan recovered 1.7% (2.1% y/y) to $443,500 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 16 week, reversing a 0.6% decrease to $436,300 in the prior week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage, up for the third week in four, jumped 10.0% (17.1% y/y) to $313,700 in the June 27 week, the highest level since the May 2 week, on top of a 1.2% rebound to $285,100 in the previous week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications edge up 0.1% w/w; refinancing loan applications jump 6.5% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans drops to 6.97%, the lowest since the Apr. 4 week.
- Average loan size rebounds to the highest level since the May 9 week.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Rise 2.7% in the June 27 Week

Tom Moeller

250701F5.jpg

250701G5.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dipped 0.5% (+2.4% y/y) to 15.65 million units (SAAR) in June after falling 8.8% to 15.73 million units in May. The retreat in June vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through May, which compared to 2.1% growth last year.

Sales declines were mixed last month. Light truck sales fell 0.4% (+4.9% y/y) during June to 12.97 million units (SAAR), after falling 8.9% to 13.02 million in May and weakening 1.7% in April to 14.29 million. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.8% (+4.6% y/y) to 9.99 million units, after falling 7.5% in May. Sales of imported light trucks rose 4.6% (5.7% y/y) to 2.97 million units, following a 14.5% fall during May.

Trucks’ record 83.0% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 82.8% in May and 80.8% in June of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales rose a slight 0.4% last month, down 8.5% y/y, to 2.69 million units (SAAR) following an 8.8% May decline. Purchases of domestically-produced cars were off 2.5% (-9.2% y/y) last month to 1.98 million units, after declining 8.6% in May. Sales of imported autos rose 9.2% (-6.6% y/y) to 0.71 million units, following a 12.2% May decline.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was increased from 22.2% in May. It compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market rose to 26.4% last month and compared to 25.9% in June of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market rose to 22.9% last month after falling to 21.8% in May.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the **INDUSTRY** database.

250701H5.jpg

250701I5.jpg

- Light truck sales ease while auto sales improve.
- Domestic sales tumble but imports increase.
- Imports' market share recovers May decline.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slip in June

250701J20.jpg

250701K20.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector improved to 49.0 in June from 48.5 during May and from 48.7 in April. The index stood below the recent high of 50.9 in January, but above a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 49.6 for June. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Of the five component indexes, two improved m/m. The June production index rose to 50.3 from 45.4 in May. It was the highest level in four months. Twenty one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while 18.7% reported lower. The inventory series improved to 49.2 from 46.7 in May. Sixteen percent (NSA) of respondent reported higher inventories while 19.5% reported lower.

Offsetting these increases, the new orders series declined to 46.4 from 47.6 in May. It was below the high of 55.1 reached in January. Twenty-one percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 27.3% indicated lower. The employment series fell to 45.0 from 46.8 in May. It remained below a January high of 50.3. Ten percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher employment while 17.5% reported less. The supplier delivery series eased to 54.2 last month from 56.1 in May. Fifteen percent (NSA) of respondents indicated slower delivery speeds while 6.3% indicated faster speeds.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, improved to 69.7 (NSA) in June, and reversed its decline to 69.4 in May. It remained up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 45.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices last month, while a steady 6.3% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders reading surged to 46.3 in June from 40.1 in May. It remained below its high of 52.4 in January. The imports index also rose sharply to 47.4, reversing its decline to 39.0 in May. The order backlog reading declined to 44.3 (NSA) last month from 47.1 in May. It remained well above a low of 37.5 in May 2023.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250701L20.jpg

250701M20.jpg

- Reading remains below expansion level for fourth straight month.
- Production & inventory readings improve; new orders & employment weaken.
- Prices index remains near three-year high.

U.S. ISM Factory Index Edges Higher in June

250701N25.jpg

250701O25.jpg

The value of construction put in place unexpectedly fell 0.3% m/m in May after revised declines of 0.2% in April (-0.4% initially) and 0.7% in March (-0.8% previously), data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The May reading was the seventh consecutive m/m fall. A 0.3% m/m May increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The year-on-year rate was -3.5% in May following -2.8% in April, registering the fourth successive y/y decline and the deepest since May 2011 (-5.9% y/y). The latest y/y number compared to a positive 7.8% in May 2024; thus, having remained well below its recent high of 12.9% in December 2023 and a peak of 18.4% in April 2022. (Note: Today the Census Bureau released standard annual revisions along with May 2025 construction spending data. NSA series were revised back to 2023, and SA series were revised back to 2018.)

Private construction slid 0.5% (-5.4% y/y) in May, the ninth straight m/m slide, after decreases of 0.5% in April (-0.7% initially) and 1.1% in March (-1.0% previously). Residential private construction fell 0.5% (-6.7% y/y) in May, down for the fifth consecutive month, on top of a 0.5% fall in April (-0.9% initially). Single-family building fell 1.8% (-4.5% y/y), the third successive m/m fall, after a 1.5% April decline; it was 47.4% of the residential private construction. Home improvement building, however, rose 0.9% (-7.8% y/y) following a 0.7% April rise and three straight m/m decreases; it was 39.7% of the residential private construction. Meanwhile, multi-family building was virtually unchanged (-10.9% y/y) after a 0.1% April easing and three consecutive m/m increases; it was 12.9% of the residential private construction.

Nonresidential private construction fell 0.4% (-3.9% y/y) in May, down for the third successive month, after a 0.6% drop in April (-0.5% initially). The May fall reflected m/m declines in the following nonresidential private constructions. These included religious (-1.7%; +11.6% y/y), lodging (-1.3%; -8.3% y/y), transportation (-0.9%; -3.8% y/y), commercial (-0.8%; -12.0% y/y), utilities (-0.6%; +0.6% y/y), office (-0.2%; +0.8% y/y), educational (-0.1%; -4.3% y/y), and manufacturing (-0.1%; -3.8% y/y). To the upside, the following nonresidential private constructions rose m/m in May: health care (0.4%; -3.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.3%; -1.6% y/y), and communication (0.3%; -1.5% y/y).

The value of public construction edged up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) in May, the third straight m/m increase, after a 0.6% rise in April (+0.4% initially), reflecting a 1.4% gain (8.4% y/y) in residential public construction and no change (3.1% y/y) in nonresidential public construction. The following nonresidential public construction subcategories registered m/m gains in May. These included public safety (0.8%; 6.8% y/y), amusement & recreation (0.7%; 8.6% y/y), transportation (0.6%; 7.4% y/y), conservation & development (0.5%; 5.2% y/y), sewage & waste disposal (0.5%; 9.6% y/y), health care (0.4%; 15.1% y/y), and educational (0.2%; -0.3% y/y). In contrast, the following nonresidential public constructions fell m/m in May: commercial (-1.5%; +29.1% y/y), office (-0.5%; +2.1% y/y), water supply (-0.5%; +6.1% y/y), and utilities (-0.1%; -9.8% y/y). Notably, spending on highways & streets, which made up 28.0% of public construction spending, fell 0.3% (-0.3% y/y) in May, the first m/m fall since February, following a 0.9% increase in April.

The construction figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250701P25.jpg

250701Q25.jpg

- Headline: -0.3% m/m, the seventh straight m/m fall; -3.5% y/y, the deepest y/y drop since May ’11.
- Residential private construction -0.5% m/m, led by a 1.8% fall in single-family building.
- Nonresidential private construction -0.4% m/m, the third straight m/m slide.
- Public sector construction +0.1% m/m, led by a 1.4% gain in residential public building.

U.S. Construction Spending Registers a String of Declines in May