Louise Curley

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The French industrial sector continues to improve despite a weak construction component. 
The index (2005=100) of Industrial Turnover (sales), excluding construction, declined from a peak of 117.2 in April, 2008 to 100.8 in March of 2009. 
Since then, the trend has been positive and in May, the index rose 0.28% and was 5.22% above May, 2009. 
It is shown in the first chart.
The index of Construction Turnover reached a peak of 123.6 in March 2008 from which it has trended downward. 
In May the Index was 111.6 and was 0.45% above April, but 4.37% below May 2008. 
The index of Construction Turnover is shown in the second chart, together with the indexes for Manufacturing Turnover 
and the index for the special aggregation of the Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water and Sewer industries, which is provided 
by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.
The charts are plotted on a log scale so percentage changes can be more easily compared. 
In the case of the second chart it is clear that the index of the Manufacturing turnover has had the steepest 
decline, and the sharpest recovery. The Index of Construction turnover has had a longer decline and, so far, 
no sign of an upturn. The index of the aggregation of the remaining sectors has shown only a modest decline and 
a subdued recovery. In May the index declined 1.19% from April but was 1.92% above May 2009.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">France:&nbsp; Industrial Turnover (2005=100)</th>
<th scope="col">May 10</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 10</th>
<th scope="col">May 09&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M% chg</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y% chg</th>
<th scope="col">2009</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Industry excl Construction</td>
<td>106.8</td>
<td>106.5</td>
<td>101.5</td>
<td>0.28</td>
<td>5.22</td>
<td>102.3</td>
<td>114.5</td>
<td>111.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>103.7</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>98.1</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>5.71</td>
<td>96.9</td>
<td>112.7</td>
<td>110.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mining, Electricity, Gas, Water, Sewer</td>
<td>132.6</td>
<td>134.2</td>
<td>130.1</td>
<td>-1.19</td>
<td>1.92</td>
<td>131.1</td>
<td>130.0</td>
<td>115.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>111.6</td>
<td>111.1</td>
<td>116.7</td>
<td>0.45</td>
<td>-4.37</td>
<td>116.5</td>
<td>122.3</td>
<td>117.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The French industrial sector continues to improve despite a weak construction component. The index (2005=100) of Industrial Turnover (sales), excluding construction, declined from a peak of 117.2 in April, 2008 to 100.8 in March of [...]

Trends In French Industrial Turnover

Tom Moeller

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<a href="/comment/100802e_big.png" name="modal"><img class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100802e.png" align="left"></a>Construction activity just can't develop forward momentum. Overall, the value
of construction-put-in-place inched up just 0.1% during June following a 1.0%
May decline that was deeper than initially reported. The June slip was in line
with Consensus expectations for a 0.5% shortfall. Monthly declines in private
construction again were across-the-board but the annual rates of decline have
slowed substantially since the recession's end. Nevertheless, the level of
overall June activity remained nearly one-third below the 2006 peak.
Residential building activity fell another 0.8% during June led by a 1.0%
decline (+15.8% y/y) in spending on improvements. Single-family construction
activity also fell 0.7% (25.6% y/y) after twelve consecutive monthly increases.
Activity remained one-third above last year's low but building remained off
three-quarters from the 2006 high. Multi-family building edged up 0.3% (-51.5%
y/y) following severe monthly declines extending back to 2008.
Nonresidential building activity slipped a moderated 0.5% m/m. Since the 2008
peak, activity has fallen by one-third. Spending on multi-retail commercial
structures fell 2.8% (-29.2% y/y) and office building fell 1.1% (-38.5% y/y).
Health-care building ticked 0.5% higher (-15.0% y/y) but spending on educational
facilities fell 1.5% (-23.4% y/y). Spending in the public sector rose 1.5% led
by a 5.4% gain in spending on health care (-0.3% y/y). Spending on highways
&amp; streets ticked up 0.1% (1.7% y/y).
The construction put-in-place figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
Challenges for the Economy and State Governments is the title of
today's speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and it is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100802a.htm"> here</a>.
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<table class="centered" width="100%" cellspacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" >Construction Put In Place
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >June</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >April</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2009</th>
 <th scope="col" >2008</th>
 <th scope="col" >2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>-1.0</td>
 <td>2.3</td>
 <td>-7.9</td>
 <td>-14.9</td>
 <td>-7.5</td>
 <td>-1.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey2">
 <td class="firstcol" >Private</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 <td>-1.4</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>-10.0</td>
 <td>-21.9</td>
 <td>-12.2</td>
 <td>-5.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential</td>
 <td>-0.8</td>
 <td>-1.5</td>
 <td>6.0</td>
 <td>11.8</td>
 <td>-29.9</td>
 <td>-29.0</td>
 <td>-19.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
 <td>-0.5</td>
 <td>-1.3</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 <td>-24.1</td>
 <td>-15.0</td>
 <td>10.5</td>
 <td>23.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey2">
 <td class="firstcol" >Public</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 <td>1.7</td>
 <td>-4.1</td>
 <td>2.2</td>
 <td>6.6</td>
 <td>13.1</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

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Construction activity just can't develop forward momentum. Overall, the value of construction-put-in-place inched up just 0.1% during June following a 1.0% May decline that was deeper than initially reported. The June slip was in line [...]

U.S. Construction Activity Inched Up During June

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The loss of forward momentum behind the factory sector's recovery is clear,
though activity still is expanding. The July Composite Index from the Institute
for Supply Management fell to 55.2 from 56.2 in June. The latest figure was
higher than Consensus expectations for a reading of 54.0 but it was the third
consecutive month of decline. The July level suggests expansion in factory
sector activity as it is the twelfth consecutive figure above 50 and is up from
the low of 32.5 reached in December '08. (Any figure above the break-even point
of 50 suggests rising activity.) The ISM data is available in Haver's USECON database.
Continuing the recent pattern, declines in new orders and production were the
biggest of the component series. Countering this weakness was an uptick in the
employment index series to 58.6 which was off just slightly from its May high.
The reading has been above 50 since December. During the last ten years there
has been an 89% correlation between the ISM employment index and the m/m change
in factory sector payrolls. Inventory accumulation bolstered factory sector
activity with a rise in the measure after three months of decline. Finally, the
pace of vendor deliveries slowed (index rose) after three months of quickening.
Activity abroad did little to offset weakness in the U.S. The export order
index ticked up just slightly m/m to 56.5. That remained down sharply from its
May high of 62.0 and was close to the lowest level since December. During the
last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of the index
and the quarterly change in merchandise exports. Twenty percent of respondents
reported higher export orders while seven percent reported them lower.
The separate index of prices paid held roughly steady m/m at 57.5 which was
nearly the lowest level since November. Still, it remained up from the December
'08 low of 18.0. Just 33% (half the recent high) of respondents reported higher
prices while 18% indicated lower prices. During the last twenty years there has
been an 83% correlation between the price index and the three-month change in
the PPI for intermediate goods.
The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database.
Seven Faces of &quot;The
Peril&quot; by James Bullard, President, Federal Reserve Bank
of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/econ/bullard/pdf/SevenFacesFinalJul28.pdf">here</a>.
 The paper emphasizes that (1) The FOMC's extended period language may be increasing
the probability of a Japanese-style outcome for the U.S., and (2) on balance,
theU.S. quantitative easing program offers
the best tool to avoid such an outcome.


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<table class="centered" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S2/@S201/@S201.HTM">ISM Mfg</a></th>
 <th scope="col">July</th>
 <th scope="col">June</th>
 <th scope="col">May</th>
 <th scope="col">July '09</th>
 <th scope="col">2009</th>
 <th scope="col">2008</th>
 <th scope="col">2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Composite Index</td>
 <td>55.2</td>
 <td>56.2</td>
 <td>59.7</td>
 <td>49.1</td>
 <td>46.2</td>
 <td>45.5</td>
 <td>51.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td>53.5</td>
 <td>58.5</td>
 <td>65.7</td>
 <td>55.5 </td>
 <td>51.6</td>
 <td>42.1</td>
 <td>54.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Employment</td>
 <td>58.6</td>
 <td>57.8</td>
 <td>59.8</td>
 <td>45.9</td>
 <td>40.5</td>
 <td>43.3</td>
 <td>50.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>57.0</td>
 <td>61.4</td>
 <td>66.6</td>
 <td>59.0</td>
 <td>50.4</td>
 <td>45.2</td>
 <td>54.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Supplier Deliveries</td>
 <td>58.3</td>
 <td>57.3</td>
 <td>61.0</td>
 <td>51.7</td>
 <td>51.4</td>
 <td>51.6</td>
 <td>51.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>50.2</td>
 <td>45.8</td>
 <td>45.6</td>
 <td>33.3</td>
 <td>37.1</td>
 <td>45.5</td>
 <td>45.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
 <td>57.5</td>
 <td>57.0</td>
 <td>77.5</td>
 <td>55.0</td>
 <td>48.3</td>
 <td>66.5</td>
 <td>64.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


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The loss of forward momentum behind the factory sector's recovery is clear, though activity still is expanding. The July Composite Index from the Institute for Supply Management fell to 55.2 from 56.2 in June. The latest figure was [...]

U.S. ISM Index Is Lowest Since April

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Consumers remain glum. The full-month July reading of consumer sentiment, as
measured by the University of Michigan, dropped sharply from June to 67.8,
though that was up slightly from the mid-month reading. The latest was the
lowest reading since November. Nevertheless the index level remained up 22.6%
since the low in November 2008. During the last ten years there has been an 89%
correlation between the level of sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer
spending.
The expectations index dropped sharply m/m but remained up 26.6% from the
2008 low. The readings for expected business conditions during the next year
(-4.3% y/y) and expectations for business conditions during the next five years
(0.0% y/y) both fell sharply from June. Expectations for personal finances also
fell hard from June (-0.9% y/y).
Expected price inflation during the next year held steady 3.3% and remained
up from the December 2008 low of 1.7%.&nbsp;Respondents' view of government
policy, which may eventually influence economic expectations, retraced the gains
of the prior two months and remained down sharply from its high last May.
Fourteen&nbsp; percent of respondents thought that a good job was being done by
government versus 41% who thought a poor job was being done.
Sentiment about current economic conditions also fell sharply from June to
the lowest level since November. The assessment of current personal finances
reversed its improvement (5.7% y/y) since February while perceived buying
conditions for large household goods, including furniture, refrigerators, stoves
&amp; televisions fell hard to the lowest level since November (+10.8% y/y).
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted.
The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at
month-end. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database with
details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
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<table class="centered" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
 <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM" ;>University
 of Michigan</a></th>
 <th scope="col" >July</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mid- July</th>
 <th scope="col">June</th>
 <th scope="col">May</th>
 <th scope="col">July Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col">2009</th>
 <th scope="col">2008</th>
 <th scope="col">2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Consumer Sentiment</td>
 <td>67.8</td>
 <td>66.5</td>
 <td>76.0</td>
 <td>73.6</td>
 <td>2.7%</td>
 <td>66.3</td>
 <td>63.8</td>
 <td>85.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Economic Conditions</td>
 <td>76.5</td>
 <td>75.5</td>
 <td>85.6</td>
 <td>81.0</td>
 <td>8.5</td>
 <td>69.6</td>
 <td>73.7</td>
 <td>101.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
 <td>62.3</td>
 <td>60.6</td>
 <td>69.8</td>
 <td>68.8</td>
 <td>-1.4</td>
 <td>64.1</td>
 <td>57.3</td>
 <td>75.6</td>
 </tr>
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Consumers remain glum. The full-month July reading of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, dropped sharply from June to 67.8, though that was up slightly from the mid-month reading. The latest was the lowest [...]

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Sharply from June

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<a href="/comment/100730e_big.png" name="modal"><img align="left" class="large" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100730e.png"></a>The employment cost index for private industry workers gave back some its
recent improvement with a 0.5% gain last quarter. Nevertheless, the increase
remained improved from the 0.2% low early last year. (The series dates back to
1980). The increase matched Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain.
Growth in benefit costs in the private sector slowed to 0.5% during 2Q
following the strong 1.4% 1Q pop. The quarterly pullback included sales and
office workers (2.8% y/y), production &amp; material handling employees (3.7%
y/y) and management &amp; professional workers (1.5% y/y). The cost of health
benefits rose further to 5.0% in the latest 12 months, up from the 3.5% low in
2008.
Growth in wages &amp; salaries held steady at 0.4%. Management, professional
&amp; related worker wages held steady (1.6% y/y) while sales &amp; office
worker wages improved to 4% (2.1% y/y). Production &amp; material handling
worker wages gained an improved 0.4% (1.4% y/y) but was still near the least on
record. Factory sector wages grew 0.5% (1.5% y/y) while workers in service
occupation saw a rise of 0.5% (1.7% y/y).
The employment cost index figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.
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<table width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0" class="centered">
 <colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB08/@EB08.HTM">ECI
 - Private Industry Workers</a> (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2 '10</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1 '10</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q4 '09</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2009</th>
 <th scope="col" >2008</th>
 <th scope="col" >2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Compensation</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>0.6</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>2.8</td>
 <td>3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>3.0</td>
 <td>3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>2.5</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The employment cost index for private industry workers gave back some its recent improvement with a 0.5% gain last quarter. Nevertheless, the increase remained improved from the 0.2% low early last year. (The series dates back to [...]

U.S. Employment Cost Index Gains Moderate As Benefits Ease

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It's been a disappointing tale for the reports of U.S. real GDP
growth since the current recovery began. The advance figure for 2Q showed growth of 2.4%,
which was slightly below expectations for 2.7%. It was the fourth
straight quarter of positive GDP growth during which it averaged 3.2%. It is, however,
less than half the norm for the year following other deep postwar
recessions. In addition, estimates of growth during the last three years were
revised downward, mostly due to reduced estimates of personal consumption.
Growth in domestic final demand improved to 4.1% (AR) as a
result of a rebound in residential investment to 27.8% growth in Q2. Growth in
business investment also surged to 17.0%. Growth in personal consumption held
fairly constant at a modest 1.6% and gov't spending also rose at a 4.4% rate.
The contribution to last quarter's GDP growth from inventory investment slipped
while foreign trade's effect went sharply negative due to a 28.8% quarterly
surge in imports which offset a strong 10.4% gain in exports.
Price inflation as measured by the chained GDP price index improved to 1.8%.
Nevertheless, the y/y increase of 0.8% remained barely above the lowest reading since
the early-1950s. The personal consumption chain price index ticked up 0.1% last
quarter but the 1.9% year-to-year gain remained near the quickest since 2008,
mostly because of higher energy prices. The price index for fixed business
investment also ticked up just 0.2% (-2.3% y/y) and the residential investment
price index fell (-0.6% y/y).
Revisions to growth and inflation in prior years were accompanied by updated figures for
corporate profitably. The revised 37.6% y/y gain as of 1Q was higher than
reported last month due to strengthened financial sector earnings of 173.1% y/y.
Also, the 11.3% growth in earnings from abroad&nbsp; was improved from last
month. Offsetting these revisions was a reduced estimate of&nbsp; growth in
nonfinancial sector earnings (26.3% y/y), though it remained the strongest since 3Q
2006.&nbsp; 
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 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" ><a ; href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2005 $, % AR</a></th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2 '10</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1 '10</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q4 '09</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2009</th>
 <th scope="col" >2008</th>
 <th scope="col" >2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >GDP</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 <td>3.7</td>
 <td>5.0</td>
 <td>3.2</td>
 <td>-2.6</td>
 <td>-0.0</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td>1.1</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>2.8</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 <td>-0.5</td>
 <td>-0.5</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Final Sales</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.1</td>
 <td>2.1</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>-2.1</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>2.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign Trade
 Effect</td>
 <td>-2.8</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 <td>1.0</td>
 <td>-1.1</td>
 <td>0.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Domestic Final Demand</td>
 <td>4.1</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>-3.1</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>-1.2</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td>17.0</td>
 <td>7.8</td>
 <td>-1.4</td>
 <td>5.2</td>
 <td>-17.1</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>6.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td>27.8</td>
 <td>-12.3</td>
 <td>-0.8</td>
 <td>5.3</td>
 <td>-22.9</td>
 <td>-24.0</td>
 <td>-18.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td>4.4</td>
 <td>-1.6</td>
 <td>-1.4</td>
 <td>0.7</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>2.8</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Chained GDP Price Index</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>1.0</td>
 <td>-0.2</td>
 <td>0.8</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>2.2</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

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It's been a disappointing tale for the reports of U.S. real GDP growth since the current recovery began. The advance figure for 2Q showed growth of 2.4%, which was slightly below expectations for 2.7%. It was the fourth straight [...]

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 Is Slightly Lower Than Expectations

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It's been a disappointing tale for the reports of U.S. real GDP
growth since the current recovery began. The advance figure for 2Q showed growth
of 2.4%, which was slightly below expectations for 2.7%. It was the fourth
straight quarter of positive GDP growth during which it averaged 3.2%. It is,
however, less than half the norm for the year following other deep postwar
recessions. In addition, estimates of growth during the last three years were
revised downward, mostly due to reduced estimates of personal consumption.
Growth in domestic final demand improved to 4.1% (AR) as a
result of a rebound in residential investment to 27.8% growth in Q2. Growth in
business investment also surged to 17.0%. Growth in personal consumption held
fairly constant at a modest 1.6% and gov't spending also rose at a 4.4% rate.
The contribution to last quarter's GDP growth from inventory investment slipped
while foreign trade's effect went sharply negative due to a 28.8% quarterly
surge in imports which offset a strong 10.4% gain in exports.
Price inflation as measured by the chained GDP price index improved to 1.8%.
Nevertheless, the y/y increase of 0.8% remained barely above the lowest reading
since the early-1950s. The personal consumption chain price index ticked up 0.1%
last quarter but the 1.9% year-to-year gain remained near the quickest since
2008, mostly because of higher energy prices. The price index for fixed business
investment also ticked up just 0.2% (-2.3% y/y) and the residential investment
price index fell (-0.6% y/y).
Revisions to growth and inflation in prior years were accompanied by updated
figures for corporate profitably. The revised 37.6% y/y gain as of 1Q was higher
than reported last month due to strengthened financial sector earnings of 173.1%
y/y. Also, the 11.3% growth in earnings from abroad&nbsp; was improved from last
month. Offsetting these revisions was a reduced estimate of&nbsp; growth in
nonfinancial sector earnings (26.3% y/y), though it remained the strongest since
3Q 2006.&nbsp; 
<table width="979" cellspacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" width="269"><a ; href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained
 2005 $, % AR</a></th>
 <th scope="col" width="98">2Q '10</th>
 <th scope="col" width="98">1Q&nbsp;'10</th>
 <th scope="col" width="98">4Q '09</th>
 <th scope="col" width="98">2Q Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="98">2009</th>
 <th scope="col" width="99">2008</th>
 <th scope="col" width="99">2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">GDP</td>
 <td width="98">2.4</td>
 <td width="98">3.7</td>
 <td width="98">5.0</td>
 <td width="98">3.2</td>
 <td width="98">-2.6</td>
 <td width="99">-0.0</td>
 <td width="99">1.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td width="98">1.1</td>
 <td width="98">2.6</td>
 <td width="98">2.8</td>
 <td width="98">2.0</td>
 <td width="98">-0.5</td>
 <td width="99">-0.5</td>
 <td width="99">-0.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Final Sales</td>
 <td width="98">1.3</td>
 <td width="98">1.1</td>
 <td width="98">2.1</td>
 <td width="98">1.2</td>
 <td width="98">-2.1</td>
 <td width="99">0.5</td>
 <td width="99">2.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Foreign Trade
 Effect</td>
 <td width="98">-2.8</td>
 <td width="98">-0.3</td>
 <td width="98">1.9</td>
 <td width="98">-0.6</td>
 <td width="98">1.0</td>
 <td width="99">-1.1</td>
 <td width="99">0.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Domestic Final Demand</td>
 <td width="98">4.1</td>
 <td width="98">1.3</td>
 <td width="98">0.2</td>
 <td width="98">1.8</td>
 <td width="98">-3.1</td>
 <td width="99">-0.6</td>
 <td width="99">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="99"></td>
 <td width="99"></td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Personal Consumption</td>
 <td width="98">1.6</td>
 <td width="98">1.9</td>
 <td width="98">0.9</td>
 <td width="98">1.6</td>
 <td width="98">-1.2</td>
 <td width="99">-0.3</td>
 <td width="99">2.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td width="98">17.0</td>
 <td width="98">7.8</td>
 <td width="98">-1.4</td>
 <td width="98">5.2</td>
 <td width="98">-17.1</td>
 <td width="99">0.3</td>
 <td width="99">6.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td width="98">27.8</td>
 <td width="98">-12.3</td>
 <td width="98">-0.8</td>
 <td width="98">5.3</td>
 <td width="98">-22.9</td>
 <td width="99">-24.0</td>
 <td width="99">-18.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td width="98">4.4</td>
 <td width="98">-1.6</td>
 <td width="98">-1.4</td>
 <td width="98">0.7</td>
 <td width="98">1.6</td>
 <td width="99">2.8</td>
 <td width="99">1.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="98"></td>
 <td width="99"></td>
 <td width="99"></td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="269">&nbsp; Chained GDP Price Index</td>
 <td width="98">1.8</td>
 <td width="98">1.0</td>
 <td width="98">-0.2</td>
 <td width="98">0.8</td>
 <td width="98">0.9</td>
 <td width="99">2.2</td>
 <td width="99">2.9</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
U.S. Employment Cost Index Gains Moderate As Benefits
Ease 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>
July 30, 2010
The employment cost index for private industry workers gave back some its
recent improvement with a 0.5% gain last quarter. Nevertheless, the increase
remained improved from the 0.2% low early last year. (The series dates back to
1980). The increase matched Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain.
Growth in benefit costs in the private sector slowed to 0.5% during 2Q
following the strong 1.4% 1Q pop. The quarterly pullback included sales and
office workers (2.8% y/y), production &amp; material handling employees (3.7%
y/y) and management &amp; professional workers (1.5% y/y). The cost of health
benefits rose further to 5.0% in the latest 12 months, up from the 3.5% low in
2008.
Growth in wages &amp; salaries held steady at 0.4%. Management, professional
&amp; related worker wages held steady (1.6% y/y) while sales &amp; office
worker wages improved to 4% (2.1% y/y). Production &amp; material handling
worker wages gained an improved 0.4% (1.4% y/y) but was still near the least on
record. Factory sector wages grew 0.5% (1.5% y/y) while workers in service
occupation saw a rise of 0.5% (1.7% y/y).
The employment cost index figures are available in Haver's USECON
database.
&nbsp;
<table width="979" border="0" cellspacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" width="367"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB08/@EB08.HTM">ECI
 - Private Industry Workers</a> (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">2Q '10</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">1Q '10</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">4Q '09</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2Q Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2009</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2008</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="367">Compensation</td>
 <td width="86">0.5</td>
 <td width="87">0.6</td>
 <td width="87">0.4</td>
 <td width="87">1.8</td>
 <td width="87">1.5</td>
 <td width="87">2.8</td>
 <td width="87">3.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="367">&nbsp; Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td width="86">0.4</td>
 <td width="87">0.4</td>
 <td width="87">0.5</td>
 <td width="87">1.6</td>
 <td width="87">1.5</td>
 <td width="87">3.0</td>
 <td width="87">3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="367">&nbsp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td width="86">0.5</td>
 <td width="87">1.4</td>
 <td width="87">0.3</td>
 <td width="87">2.5</td>
 <td width="87">1.2</td>
 <td width="87">2.6</td>
 <td width="87">2.4</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
&nbsp;
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Sharply from June 
by&nbsp;<a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> July 30, 2010
Consumers remain glum. The full-month July reading of consumer sentiment, as
measured by the University of Michigan, dropped sharply from June to 67.8,
though that was up slightly from the mid-month reading. The latest was the
lowest reading since November. Nevertheless the index level remained up 22.6%
since the low in November 2008. During the last ten years there has been an 89%
correlation between the level of sentiment and the y/y change in real consumer
spending.
The expectations index dropped sharply m/m but remained up 26.6% from the
2008 low. The readings for expected business conditions during the next year
(-4.3% y/y) and expectations for business conditions during the next five years
(0.0% y/y) both fell sharply from June. Expectations for personal finances also
fell hard from June (-0.9% y/y).
Expected price inflation during the next year held steady 3.3% and remained
up from the December 2008 low of 1.7%.&nbsp;Respondents' view of government
policy, which may eventually influence economic expectations, retraced the gains
of the prior two months and remained down sharply from its high last May.
Fourteen&nbsp; percent of respondents thought that a good job was being done by
government versus 41% who thought a poor job was being done.
Sentiment about current economic conditions also fell sharply from June to
the lowest level since November. The assessment of current personal finances
reversed its improvement (5.7% y/y) since February while perceived buying
conditions for large household goods, including furniture, refrigerators, stoves
&amp; televisions fell hard to the lowest level since November (+10.8% y/y).
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted.
The reading is based on telephone interviews with about 500 households at
month-end. The summary indexes are in Haver's USECON database with
details in the proprietary UMSCA database.
&nbsp;
<table class="centered" cellspacing="0" width="943">
 <colgroup>
 </colgroup>
 <colgroup>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 </colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th scope="col" class="firstcol" width="225"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM" ;>University
 of Michigan</a></th>
 <th scope="col" width="90">July</th>
 <th scope="col" width="90">Mid- July</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">June</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">May</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">July Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">2009</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">2008</th>
 <th scope="col" width="91">2007</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="225">Consumer Sentiment</td>
 <td width="90">67.8</td>
 <td width="90">66.5</td>
 <td width="91">76.0</td>
 <td width="91">73.6</td>
 <td width="91">2.7%</td>
 <td width="91">66.3</td>
 <td width="91">63.8</td>
 <td width="91">85.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="225">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Economic Conditions</td>
 <td width="90">76.5</td>
 <td width="90">75.5</td>
 <td width="91">85.6</td>
 <td width="91">81.0</td>
 <td width="91">8.5</td>
 <td width="91">69.6</td>
 <td width="91">73.7</td>
 <td width="91">101.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="225">&nbsp;&nbsp; Expectations</td>
 <td width="90">62.3</td>
 <td width="90">60.6</td>
 <td width="91">69.8</td>
 <td width="91">68.8</td>
 <td width="91">-1.4</td>
 <td width="91">64.1</td>
 <td width="91">57.3</td>
 <td width="91">75.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
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Robert Brusca

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Italy: still rebounding - Business confidence in Italy continues to rebound even as some have an eye on Italy as one of THOSE countries with too much debt and one that could be in trouble. Ever since the Greek crisis broke the Euro-Area has been under a shadow with a handful of members in the darkest of places. But here we are months after Greece’s revelations with an EU support package in place with announcements of a good deal of austerity across the Zone and key EU/EMU economies are still managing progress- they are not just hanging on.
And doing so with gusto! -- Italy’s Index of business confidence has risen in July and its pace of expansion has slowed from its peak rate of expansion of a few months ago. Still, its pace of expansion is strong, above 20%. Moreover, while Italy’s measures, gathered and processed by ISAE, are well up from the range lows and are standing in the 84th percentile for the index headline. Yet, they still stand at a weak 29th percentile by ranking among all indicator values historically back to 1996.
Still it's a tempered progress...The ISAE MFG index is well up from those weak recession cycle low points that give us the chills but it has not yet risen to a point of normalcy. At 98.3 in July the index rose smartly from a slight backtracked level of 96.3 in June and is up sharply from 84.2 one year ago but it still stands short of its 101 mean value. That is not so far away by the numbers. Another two months of rising as it did last month and it will be above its mean. Yet, being only four points shy of its mean leaves the index in the lower 29th percentile of its rank by queue. Indeed, at its mean level the index still will stand only in the 41st percentile among its ranked values. The density of the observations for this indicators lies above its mean, a testament to how weak the values become when the index itself weakens. So we should be less encouraged by the 84th percentile reading's standing yet less worried about imminent collapse than what the queue or ranking standing implies at the 29th percentile. 
Going its own way - Italy shows the most improvement and the highest relative standings in its intermediate and consumer goods industries with capital goods lagging. That is atypical of the Euro-Area in general where consumer indicators have languished and where capital goods shipments seem to be leading the MFG sector higher. Unfortunately inventories are one of the leading components for the consumer and they perch at the 36th percentile by queue ranking Domestic orders stand at their 28Th percentile, not all that far away. Foreign orders are lagging (again, unusual by Euro-Area standards) as they lie at the border of the 20th percentile of their queue standing. Actual production of consumer goods stands at its 17% percentile by queue ranking and 42nd percentile of its range. 
Sector differences - Intermediate goods output is standing slightly higher than for consumer goods and shows balanced demand as orders are nearly equally strong for domestic- and international- sourced customers. Production is ten points higher in its relative range (queue) compared to consumer goods. While lagging as a sector, the production of investment goods has range ranking better than consumer goods production a sector where orders are relatively stronger.
Progress made and risks remain - On balance Italy's businesses are showing signs of continuing their fight higher. Like much of Europe the wake of the Greek crisis does not seem to have swamped it; it has barley rocked the boat at this point anyway. Unlike much of Europe Italy seems to have a stronger domestic-based recovery in place. That should means that if austerity measures bite, Italy will have less wiggle room to avoid repercussions. But so far that is not what is happening. Italy is benefiting from some international orders but with a strengthening domestic base. Like the rest of Europe it still has a long way to go to reach normalcy but it has put the worst of times and the biggest of risks behind it.


<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 
 <tr>
 <td colspan="8" scope="col">Italy ISAE Business Sentiment</td>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td>&nbsp;</td>
 <td colspan="4"></td>
 <td colspan="2">Since Oct 1996</td>
 <td>&nbsp;</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td>&nbsp;</td>
 <td>Jul-10</td>
 <td>Jun-10</td>
 <td>May-10</td>
 <td>Apr-10</td>
 <td>Percentile</td>
 <td>Rank</td>
 <td>rank%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">Biz Confidence</td>
 <td>98.3</td>
 <td>96.3</td>
 <td>96.4</td>
 <td>96</td>
 <td>84.2</td>
 <td>115</td>
 <td>29.2%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">TOTAL INDUSTRY</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">&nbsp; Order books
&amp; Demand</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Total</td>
 <td>-31</td>
 <td>-37</td>
 <td>-33</td>
 <td>-35</td>
 <td style="color: red; font-weight: bold;">44.3</td>
 <td>141</td>
 <td>13.0%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
 <td>-26</td>
 <td>-34</td>
 <td>-33</td>
 <td>-37</td>
 <td>54.3</td>
 <td>132</td>
 <td>18.6%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Foreign</td>
 <td>-34</td>
 <td>-34</td>
 <td>-35</td>
 <td>-34</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">43.0</td>
 <td>142</td>
 <td>12.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>-3</td>
 <td>-4</td>
 <td>-3</td>
 <td>-2</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">33.3</td>
 <td>130</td>
 <td>19.9%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>-20</td>
 <td>-29</td>
 <td>-30</td>
 <td>-32</td>
 <td>50.0</td>
 <td>134</td>
 <td>17.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">INTERMEDIATE</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">&nbsp; Order books
&amp; Demand</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Total</td>
 <td>-20</td>
 <td>-32</td>
 <td>-28</td>
 <td>-36</td>
 <td>59.8</td>
 <td>102</td>
 <td>37.3%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
 <td>-25</td>
 <td>-33</td>
 <td>-32</td>
 <td>-38</td>
 <td>56.8</td>
 <td>113</td>
 <td>30.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Foreign</td>
 <td>-26</td>
 <td>-29</td>
 <td>-27</td>
 <td>-31</td>
 <td>55.1</td>
 <td>118</td>
 <td>27.3%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>-3</td>
 <td>-6</td>
 <td>-5</td>
 <td>-3</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">41.4</td>
 <td>107</td>
 <td>34.2%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>-18</td>
 <td>-28</td>
 <td>-28</td>
 <td>-30</td>
 <td>55.0</td>
 <td>117</td>
 <td>28.0%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">INVESTMENT GOODS</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">&nbsp; Order books
&amp; Demand</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Total</td>
 <td>-27</td>
 <td>-35</td>
 <td>-37</td>
 <td>-41</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">43.8</td>
 <td>134</td>
 <td>17.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
 <td>-31</td>
 <td>-40</td>
 <td>-40</td>
 <td>-43</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">44.0</td>
 <td>131</td>
 <td>19.3%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Foreign</td>
 <td>-34</td>
 <td>-33</td>
 <td>-42</td>
 <td>-41</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">40.0</td>
 <td>143</td>
 <td>11.8%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>-3</td>
 <td>-2</td>
 <td>-2</td>
 <td>0</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">36.8</td>
 <td>114</td>
 <td>29.8%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>-20</td>
 <td>-33</td>
 <td>-37</td>
 <td>-39</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">46.1</td>
 <td>131</td>
 <td>19.3%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">CONSUMER GOODS</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td colspan="8" class="firstcol">&nbsp; Order books
&amp; Demand</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Total</td>
 <td>-20</td>
 <td>-30</td>
 <td>-26</td>
 <td>-28</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">49.3</td>
 <td>115</td>
 <td>29.2%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Domestic</td>
 <td>-22</td>
 <td>-30</td>
 <td>-26</td>
 <td>-29</td>
 <td>51.6</td>
 <td>116</td>
 <td>28.6%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Foreign</td>
 <td>-27</td>
 <td>-31</td>
 <td>-32</td>
 <td>-32</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">42.9</td>
 <td>130</td>
 <td>19.9%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>-1</td>
 <td>-1</td>
 <td>0</td>
 <td>1</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">38.5</td>
 <td>104</td>
 <td>36.0%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
 <td>-22</td>
 <td>-25</td>
 <td>-27</td>
 <td>-29</td>
 <td style="font-weight: bold; color: red;">42.1</td>
 <td>134</td>
 <td>17.4%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey1">
 <td colspan="5">Total number of months:</td>
 <td colspan="2">162</td>
 <td>&nbsp;</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>


</html>

Italy: still rebounding - Business confidence in Italy continues to rebound even as some have an eye on Italy as one of THOSE countries with too much debt and one that could be in trouble. Ever since the Greek crisis broke the Euro- [...]

Italy Biz Confidence Ticks Higher And Slows Rate Of Gain

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

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Durable goods orders fell 9.3% (+10.9% y/y) in during June after rising 16.5% in May, revised from 16.4%. Orders in April fell 6.6%. A 10.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The decline reflected a near-halving of orders for commercial aircraft which pulled total transportation equipment orders down 22.4% (+30.5% y/y). Orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% last month (2.2% y/y) after a 0.6% rise in May. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.6% (4.8% y/y) after rising 1.7% in May. Orders for machinery gained 0.4% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month while electrical equipment, appliances & components orders inched 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) following a 0.8% May rise. Primary metals orders gained 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June following a 0.7% gain and fabricated metals orders rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after surging 1.1% in May. Defense aircraft orders rose 9.1% (7.4% y/y) after a 10.2% May decline.

Total shipments increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) in June following a 0.2% May rise. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) in June after improving 0.2% in May. Transportation equipment shipments rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) and machinery shipments gained 1.0% (1.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments edged 0.1% higher (6.3% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance & components shipments rose 0.7% (4.9% y/y). Primary metals shipments gained 0.6% (2.5% y/y) while fabricated metals shipments rose 0.2% (1.9% y/y). Shipments of nondurable goods 	rose 0.4% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.1% gain.

Unfilled orders for all manufactured products jumped 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June after a 3.4% May rise. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the same as in May. Backlogs of durable goods rose 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June, reflecting a 1.6% jump (11.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, led by a 2.1% rise (14.7% y/y) in nondefense aircraft. Machinery backlogs eased 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in June. Electrical equipment, appliances & component backlogs rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y). Order backlogs of computers & electronic products eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off slightly for the third straight month.

Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) in June following a 0.1% gain in May and a 0.1% April decline. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories of machinery gained 0.4% (2.3% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.1% (0.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Transportation inventories eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Orders excluding transportation weaken.
- Shipments strengthen.
- Unfilled orders surge, led by aircraft; inventories increase slightly.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Decline in June as Aircraft Bookings Plunge

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Hypnotists are just trying to get you to focus on something and concentrate on it so that you can relax and they can put you into a hypnotic trance. Right now, you want to make sure that does not happen as you watch what is going on with money supply. It is not ‘entrancing’ and ought to be followed. The chart shows you that trends - and often excesses in ‘global money supply’ growth have begun in that money center country, the United States of America. And… well… here we go again? While it's very early in the game, it looks like, after a period of monetary weakness and re-escalation, U.S. money growth is now beginning to step up in the U.S. Meanwhile, in Europe and in the United Kingdom, money growth, especially real money growth, is beginning to tail off. All this is at a time when Japan's money growth, of course, has been marching to the step of a different drummer showing regular, consistent, nominal weakness and actual declines in the real money stock to try to tame its incipient inflation.

**The Policy Zone**
We are no longer in the COVID era; or even in the post-COVID era. We are now in the post post-COVID era. And monetary policy is being made based on conditions rather than remedy perceived legacy problems in the economy from COVID. We need to make that transition in our analysis too, and ask ourselves, “What's really happening?” In the U.S., the popular dogma is to claim that central bank independence is being undercut and that Donald Trump's tariffs are going to raise the inflation rate and that the Fed is losing its battle with inflation and inflation is coming because of excessive fiscal policy and the imposition of tariffs. It's a story you can believe if you want to. There's certainly some evidence to support those points; whether they completely justify that point of view, it is still too early to say. However, clearly, money supply growth in the U.S. is ramping up. The U.S. 12-month growth rate is up to 4.5%, over six months the annualized rate hits 5.5%, and over three months the annualized rate hits 6.9%. It's hard to say that that's occurring because of Trump's tariffs. At the same time, the growth rate in real money balances - that's money supply deflated by the CPI - has boosted its growth rate from 1.8% over 12 months to a 2.9% annual rate over six months to a 4.4% annual rate over three months. Is the chase on for an inflation ‘uptick’ that will not be temporary?

**Follow the leader, or go your own way?**
It will take some time to tell if the other money center countries are going to follow the leader or not. So far it looks like ‘or not.’ Money supply growth in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is actually decelerating slightly from 2.8% over 12 months to a 1.7% pace over six months to a 1.3% pace over three months. Similarly, in the EMU the growth of real balances has slipped from 0.8% over 12 months to a 0.2% annual rate over six months to a -0.6% annual rate (contraction) over three months. So far, euro area money supply is not tagging along with the U.S. trend.

**Euro-credit trends**
Meanwhile, private credit growth in Europe has stabilized with the 12-month growth rate of 2.3% that moves up to 2.4% over six months and settles back to 2% over three months, a relatively stable performance that would seem to signal ongoing moderate growth. The growth rate of private credit, deflated for the effects of inflation, shows continued growth, and beyond that the trend is unclear. Over 12 months the growth rate is 0.3%, over six months that improves to 0.8%, and over three months it drops back to a 0.1% pace. I'm not good enough at splitting hair to be able to tell you what that trend is.

**U.K. money weakens**
In the U.K., nominal money supply growth seems to be slowing, but that isn't crystal clear, with the 3.5% annual rate over 12 months moving up to a 4.1% annual rate over six months been slipping back to 1.7% over three months. It may take a few months to be able to tell if the step down to 1.7% is real or just volatility averaging out the step up over six months. U.K. money growth does not appear to be excessive or rogue; when we look at real balances, 12-month growth is -0.4%, six-month growth is -0.1% and the three-month growth rate is -1.6%. On that profile, real money growth in the U.K. does not appear to be following the U.S. rule book either.

**Japan- dealing with its own complex issues**
We know that Japan has been off on its own for a while. Japan clearly has been fighting off a bout of inflation. But, since that development is relatively new, and the previous battle with deflation was relatively long-lived, if we think in terms of inflation averaging, Japan is still dealing with an extremely small problem. Despite the appearance of some real inflation (depending on the price index you look at to establish Japanese inflation trends), Japan's inflation overshoot in contexts is only making up for lost time.

Money growth in Japan is 0.9% over 12 months; however, it's only running at a 0.1% annualized over six months and over three months. The growth of real money balances in Japan is negative. Real balance growth rates are negative on balance over three years and two years; the 12-month growth rate for real money balances is -2.3%, over six months it is -2.2%, and over three months it is -2%. The degree of restriction has faded but faded only very marginally. The main point is that in Japan, real money balances are contracting and so there is a fight to reduce inflation going on behind the scenes and that's clearing up; you can see it in the money growth rates on the chart as well if not from the level or real interest rates. Japan is balancing complex needs.

250725.jpg

**Are tariffs a threat or benign?**
As we sharpen our pencils or fill in our spreadsheets with guesses at the independent variables, and try to predict the future, let's not obsess too much about the independence and credibility of central banks and put too much of the blame on developing tariff policy. I'm not prepared to argue the tariffs are unimportant. In the short run, they could create some difficult decisions for monetary policy agencies. And beyond tariffs, let’s remember that the collapse of Bretton Woods and the installation of fluctuations exchange rates also did usher in an age of higher inflation. Exchange rate changes, like tariffs, are not formally inflationary but they do change (like tariffs) relative prices. There is more discussion about inflation and exchange rates than about inflation and tariffs mostly because exchange rate fluctuations became more pronounced after 1971 while tariffs were mostly being cut in periodic multilateral rounds until recently. The absence of a literature on tariffs and inflation is an artifact of economic circumstance.

**The road ahead and the traffic around us**
Whatever the ‘threat’ of tariffs, the trends in money supply are more fundamental and certainly something you don't want to lose track of although many people do lose track of money supply these days. Central banks have certainly downgraded money supply. In the U.S., relevant money supply data are released much less frequently and the data we are provided with is much less thorough than it used to be. Central banks want to be known for their interest rate policy and inflation targeting. A strange desire after they have been so unsuccessful at hitting those targets over the past four years… But of course, there are policy tools to focus on: the official interest rate the central bank implements, the guidance it gives us about the future, the way that markets price themselves relative to the central bank rate which affects the way interest rates work their way into the economy… And then, of course, there is the issue of what inflation is, and what it will be, and what assumptions monetary policy makes when it evaluates itself to decide how it's going to be presented to the public by the central bank. All of this leaves a lot of room for discretion and slippage and what monetary policy really is. It puts the central bank in a position to - as always - occupy the bully pulpit and to steer the discussion in the direction they want which inevitably is the direction that justifies the kind of policy they've decided to run. Now is a good time to pull yourself out of that cycle to step back and to look objectively at what's happening with money supply and policy and to think about what happens next. Policy is not completely about politics after all. Tariffs are not the keystone to build an outlook for the future.

Global Money Supply Begins to Show Divergences; Watch the Green Line and Don’t Get Sleepy

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Sales of new single-family home sales improved 0.6% (-6.6% y/y) in June to 627,000 (SAAR) after falling 11.6% to an unrevised 623,000 in May, and rising to 705,000 in April, revised from 722,000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 650,000 in June. The sales gain occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady m/m at an average 6.82% in June, according to Freddie Mac. So far in July the 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to an average 6.71% and compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September of last year.

By region, new home sales varied across the country last month. Sales of new homes in the Midwest rose 6.3% (9.0% y/y) to 85,000, after falling 3.6% during May. In the South, new home sales rebounded 5.1% (-4.4% y/y) to 390,000, following a 15.1% May decline. Offsetting these gains, sales of new homes in the West weakened 8.4% (-14.4% y/y) to 131,000, after declining 8.3% in May. Showing even more weakness, new home sales in the Northeast were off 27.6% last month (-34.4% y/y) to 21,000, after holding steady in May.

The median sales price of a new home declined 4.9% (-2.9% y/y) to $401,800 (NSA) in June after rising 2.3% to $422,700 in May. New home prices were 12.7% below the all-time peak of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home fell 2.1% (+1.1% y/y) to $501,000 in June, following a 0.4% May decline. The average price was 7.4% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.2% (8.5% y/y) to 511,000 (SA) in June, after a 1.0% May increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.8 months in June, the highest level since September 2022, after increasing to 9.7 months in May. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 2.8 months in June, remaining above a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Small gain in sales follows sharp decline.
- Sales are mixed throughout the country.
- Median sales price is lowest since November.

U.S. New Home Sales Improve Slightly in June; Prices Decline Sharply

Winnie Tapasanun

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The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index inched up to 1 in July from -2 in June and -3 in May, the July 2025 Manufacturing Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City showed, indicating Tenth District manufacturing activity increased slightly this month. The headline index was last positive in September 2022 (with a reading of 6). The July index was up from -11 in July 2024 but well below a high of 30 in March 2022. “The increase from last month was driven by nondurable manufacturing, while durable manufacturing activity continued to fall,” the Kansas City Fed reported.

The ISM-adjusted index calculated by Haver Analytics rebounded to 50.2 (NSA) in July after a 1.3-point decline to 49.8 in June, indicating expansion in factory activity for the fourth time in five months. The latest ISM-adjusted figure was above a low of 43.7 in July 2024 but well below a record-high 68.9 in March 2022.

In the latest survey, the new orders index rose to 2 in July, the first positive reading and the highest since July 2022, after a seven-point increase to -2 in June. Thirty percent of respondents (NSA) reported orders gains in July while 33% reported declines. The production index, however, fell to -3 this month after a 15-point rebound to 5 in June; these readings were well below a high of 35 in March 2022. The shipments index decreased to 3 in July after an 18-point jump to 8 in June; thus, having remained down from a peak of 39 in March 2022.

The raw materials inventory index rose to 8 in July following a 12-point drop to -9 in June, registering the second positive reading in three months and the highest since September 2022. These figures were above a low of -17 in July 2024 but well below a high of 28 in March 2022. The order backlog index, having remained negative since October 2022, plunged to -30 in July, the lowest reading since September 2024, after a 12-point rebound to -11 in June; these numbers were significantly below a record-high 43 in July 2021. Meanwhile, the supplier delivery time index rose to 7 in July, the highest reading since April, after rising to 5 in June; these readings remained well below a high of 51 in March 2022.

On the labor front, the employment index declined to -11 in July after an 11-point drop to -8 in June, posting the fifth negative reading in six months and the lowest in three months. The index was down from a high of 30 in May 2022. A lessened 13% of respondents (NSA) reported increases in the number of employees in July while a steady 23% reported decreases.

On the pricing front, the prices received index for finished products fell to 18 in July following a four-point increase to 21 in June. These readings, while up from a low of -5 in September 2024, remained well below a high of 50 in June 2022 and a record-high 63 in August 2021. Twenty-one percent of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices received in July while 6% reported price declines. The prices paid index for raw materials fell to 47 this month after a 17-point jump to 51 in June. These figures were up from a low of -1 in October 2023 but significantly down from a high of 72 in April 2022 and a record-high 85 in October 2021.

Expectations for future activity continued to stay positive, with activity in most categories expected to gain. The expectations index for six months ahead was at 8 in July, slightly down from 9 in June and up from 5 in May. The expectations indexes for raw materials inventories (8) and supplier delivery time (5) rose in July, while those for production (14), shipments (11), new orders (8), and employment (4) fell for the month; nevertheless, they remained in positive territory. To the negative side, the expectations indexes for new orders for exports (-8), backlog of orders (-5), and capital expenditures (-4) registered negative readings. The expectations index for raw materials prices held steady at a still-high 64 in July compared to a low of 13 in June 2023; the index for finished goods prices was unchanged at 48 vs. a low of 15 in October 2023.

The latest survey was conducted for a six-day period from July 16-21, 2025 and included 105 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

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- July Composite Index at 1 reflects positive numbers in materials inventories (8) and new orders (2), while employment (-11) and production (-3) post negative readings.
- Price growth cools somewhat, w/ prices paid down 4 pts. to 47 and prices received down 3 pts. to 18.
- Expectations for future activity, while edging down to 8, remain in positive territory.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Rises in July; First Positive Reading Since Sept. ’22

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The National Activity Index (CFNAI), reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stood at -0.10 in June following a reading of -0.16 in May, revised from -0.28, and -0.41 in April, revised from -0.36.

The index's three-month moving average, which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, fell to -0.22 last month from -0.14 in May. This reading compares to its zero value, which equals trend real GDP growth. Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession.

The June reading reflected a negative contribution from each of the four component series. The Production & Income index of -0.01 compared to -0.06 in May and -0.19 in April. The Personal Consumption & Housing contribution of -0.01 in June compared to -0.10 in May and -0.02 in April. The Sales, Orders & Inventories index series of -0.04 in June compared to +0.01 in May and -0.18 in April. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index weakened to -0.05 last month after contributing -0.01 in May and -0.02 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, stood at -0.37 in June compared to -0.32 in May and -0.08 in April. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. Thirty-seven of the 85 individual data series made positive contributions to the total index in June while 48 contributed negatively.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Latest reading improves versus May.
- Each of four components are negative.
- Three-month trend weakens.

Economy in Brief: 2010

Jump to:

Trends In French Industrial Turnover

U.S. Construction Activity Inched Up During June

U.S. ISM Index Is Lowest Since April

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls Sharply from June

U.S. Employment Cost Index Gains Moderate As Benefits Ease

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 Is Slightly Lower Than Expectations

U.S. GDP Growth in Q2 Is Slightly Lower Than Expectations

Italy Biz Confidence Ticks Higher And Slows Rate Of Gain