Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021018a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month, equaling Consensus expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices rose a less than expected 0.1%.
Tobacco prices again were strong, rising 1.6% following a 2.4% jump in August. The core CPI less tobacco rose 0.1% (1.9% AR, YTD).
Amongst goods prices weakness was widespread. Household furnishings and operation prices fell 0.2% (-1.5% AR, YTD). Apparel prices rose just 0.1% (-1.2% AR, YTD). New and used vehicle prices also rose just 0.1% (-2.4% AR, YTD).
Services prices weakened after the prior month&#39;s spurt. Shelter prices rose just 0.1% (3.3% AR, YTD) after a 0.4% August gain, though the price gain for medical care services doubled to 0.4% (5.1% AR, YTD). Public transportation prices fell 0.9% (-1.3% AR, YTD) for the third decline in four months. Education prices also fell and recreation prices were unchanged.
Energy prices were strong last month led by a 1.0% (30.9% AR, YTD) rise in gasoline prices. Fuel oil prices also were strong, up 1.2%, and piped gas &amp; electricity prices were up 0.4% for the second month.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Energy</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80113/@E80113.HTM">Chained CPI: Total (NSA)l</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.4%</td>
<td>NA</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepened Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 18, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021018b.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. foreign trade deficit deepened much more than expected in August to a new record. The previously reported improvement in July was lessened due to lowered exports. Consensus expectations had been for a August deficit of $35.2B
Exports fell (8.6% AR, YTD) and gave back all of the July gain. Capital goods exports fell a sharp 1.5% (8.9% AR, YTD) and nonauto consumer goods exports (-0.3% AR, YTD) also fell sharply.
Imports rose strongly due to a 4.7% surge in industrial supplies &amp; materials (incl. oil). Capital goods imports fell but imports of nonauto consumer goods were strong.
The refiner&#39;s acquisition cost of imported crude oil rose to $26.01 in August versus $15.95 in December. Crude oil prices rose further in September and October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE03/@EE03.HTM">Foreign Trade</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$38.5B</td>
<td>$35.1B</td>
<td>$29.5B(8/01)</td>
<td>$358.3B</td>
<td>$378.7B</td>
<td>$262.2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-6.0%</td>
<td>18.3%</td>
<td>10.9%</td>
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Consumer prices (CPI-U) rose 0.2% last month, equaling Consensus expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices rose a less than expected 0.1%. Tobacco prices again were strong, rising 1.6% following a 2.4% jump in August. The core [...]

CPI Rose Moderately

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts were stronger than expected last month rising 13.3% m/m to the highest level since 1986. Starts in August were revised slightly higher due to raised multi-family starts.
Single family starts rose 18.2% from the previous month to a record high. 
Multi-family starts fell slightly m/m and have moved sideways since 1997.
Building permits rose 3.7% m/m to the highest level since February led by strong permits for single family homes. Permits for multi-family unit structures also rose.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,843</td>
<td>1,627</td>
<td>16.5%</td>
<td>1,603</td>
<td>1,573</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,477</td>
<td>1,250</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>1,273</td>
<td>1,232</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>366</td>
<td>377</td>
<td>14.7%</td>
<td>330</td>
<td>341</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Industrial Production Down Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017b.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production fell slightly in September versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% rise. August figures were little revised. Production was up 3.7% (AR) year to date.
Output in the manufacturing sector fell 0.2% (3.3% AR, YTD) for the second consecutive month.
Lower motor vehicle and parts output (12.6% AR, YTD) led the factory sector decline, off for the second consecutive month. Output of furniture &amp; fixtures fell for the sixth month this year. 
Output of business equipment fell a sharp 1.7% (-2.5% AR, YTD) led by lower output of transit and other industrial equipment. Output of information processing equipment rose for only the third time this year 
Capacity utilization fell slightly to the lowest level since May. Capacity again rose 0.1%(1.0% AR, YTD) as it has since early last year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EA/@EA.HTM">Production &amp; Capacity</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-3.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capacity Utilization</td>
<td>75.9%</td>
<td>76.0%</td>
<td>75.5%(9/01)</td>
<td>76.8%</td>
<td>81.8%</td>
<td>81.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose as expected in the latest week. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly.
The latest claims figure was for the survey period for October nonfarm payrolls and claims were down versus the September survey period.
The four-week moving average fell to 408,750, the lowest figure since late-August.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 3.9% in the latest available week but the prior week&#39;s levelwas revised down. The latest figure was the highest since late May.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.9% from 2.8% the previous week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>411.0</td>
<td>389.0</td>
<td>-12.7%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,755</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Slumped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 17, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021017d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions for October was much weaker than expected. The Business Activity Index fell to -13.1, the lowest level since last November but only the second negative reading this year. A slightly positive reading had been expected.
Amongst the components, all turned negative versus September.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components. 
The prices paid index fell modestly, but remained quite positive as it has since March.
During the last ten years there has been a 46% correlation between the level of the General Activity Index and the quarterly change in real GDP. Over the last twenty years that correlation has been 67%.
For a discussion of the Philadelphia Fed&#39;s Business Outlook Survey click <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/brso98mt.pdf">here</a>. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>-13.1</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>-18.5</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>14.3</td>
<td>19.6</td>
<td>-21.4</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>27.1</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Housing starts were stronger than expected last month rising 13.3% m/m to the highest level since 1986. Starts in August were revised slightly higher due to raised multi-family starts. Single family starts rose 18.2% from the previous [...]

Housing Starts Much Stronger Than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021016b.jpg" width="353">
Since mid-August, oil prices have held near the $30.00 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude.
Wholesale gasoline prices have shown more strength of late rising $0.10 per gallon, or 12%, during just the last month. Fuel oil prices were up roughly a nickel (4%) per gallon during the last month.
Sharp increases in wholesale natural gas prices, up roughly 50% since August, are beginning to show up in the CPI.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D30604/@D30604.HTM">Daily Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/15/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/17/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil</td>
<td>$29.73</td>
<td>$29.08</td>
<td>32.0%</td>
<td>$25.97</td>
<td>$30.34</td>
<td>$19.34</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Since mid-August, oil prices have held near the $30.00 per barrel level for West Texas Intermediate crude. Wholesale gasoline prices have shown more strength of late rising $0.10 per gallon, or 12%, during just the last month. Fuel [...]

Crude Oil Prices Hold the High Level

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021015a.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised.
Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor vehicle inventories, the first month-to-month decline since November. Nonauto retail inventories (1.0% YTD) fell for the first time since March.
Inventories of furniture &amp; home furnishings have been steadily accumulating (6.6% YTD) since September. Accumulation at apparel stores (1.8% YTD) has been moderate. At general merchandise stores (-1.1% YTD), inventories have continued to run off.
Overall business sales rose 0.2% (3.9% YTD) mostly on the strength of higher wholesale sales.
The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.34, a new record low. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>-6.3%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-6.2%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Disappoint 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 15, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021015b.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales reversed all of the prior week&#39;s gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales fell 0.9% last week following a 0.8% gain the prior week. It was the seventh decline during the last eleven weeks.
Sales thus far in October were 1.1% below the average for September which was down 1.1% from August.
During the last five years there has been a 62% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. There has been a 18% correlation between the month-to-month change in the two sales series.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/12/02</th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>400.7</td>
<td>404.4</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</body>
</html>

Total business inventories fell in August for the first monthly decline since April. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.2% gain. July figures were little revised. Retail inventories (3.9% YTD) fell led by a 0.5% decline in motor [...]

Business Inventory Decumulation Resumed

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021014a.jpg" width="353">
The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. Gains in the last four of those months have been notable.
The indicator&#39;s six-month growth rate of 25.9% was by far the strongest growth rate in the record of the index which dates back to 1994.
The monthly FIG has a mean lead of 11 months and a median lead of 9 months at inflation cycle turns .
The eight components of the FIG are commodity prices, employment measures, capacity measures, import prices, the yield spread, real estate and debt.
For more on ECRI visit their <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com">website</a>. 

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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF12/@EF12.HTM">ECRI</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Future Inflation Gauge</td>
<td>113.3</td>
<td>109.0</td>
<td>13.5%</td>
<td>-14.2%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
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The Future Inflation Gauge (FIG) published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose for the sixth consecutive month in September. Gains in the last four of those months have been notable. The indicator's six-month growth [...]

ECRI Future Inflation Gauge Rose Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011b.jpg" width="353">
Retail sales fell about as expected last month following firm August gains that were revised slightly down. Year to date retail sales were up at a 3.3% annual rate through September.
Sales of motor vehicle and parts fell a sharp 4.8%. New vehicle purchases dropped 12.6% m/m to a 16.32 mil. unit annual rate.
Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers rose 0.1% (4.6% AR, YTD), slightly below the consensus expectation.
Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores fell 0.4% (-0.8% AR, YTD), the fifth m/m decline this year. Clothing and accessories store sales also were weak, down 0.9% (-0.9% AR, YTD). General merchandise store sales fell as well, off 0.1% (4.5% AR, YTD).
Sales at gasoline stations were flat following a 0.7% August decline. Nonauto retail sales less gasoline rose 0.1% (4.1% AR, YTD).

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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
Producer Prices Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011a.jpg" width="353">
Finished producer prices rose slightly last month, as expected. Excluding food and energy prices also rose an expected 0.1%. Core producer prices were down 0.4% (AR) year to date.
Energy prices rose 0.9% (10.9% AR, YTD). Gasoline prices (74.0% AR, YTD) were strong for the third consecutive month and fuel oil prices also jumped m/m (72.1% AR, YTD). For a discussion by the Atlanta Fed of supplies in the oil market, go <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=AB4F965E-E58D-4568-BCA4889D6E63C374&amp;method=display">here</a>. 
Food prices fell for the fifth month in six (-2.6% AR, YTD).
Core finished consumer goods prices rose a slight 0.1% for the first gain in three months (-0.1% AR, YTD). Core nondurable goods prices rose slightly for the second month (1.0% AR, YTD). Consumer durables prices rose 0.1% (-1.3% AR, YTD). Capital goods prices were unchanged following two down months (-0.9% AR, YTD). 
Intermediate goods prices were strong owing to higher petroleum prices. Core intermediate prices rose just 0.1% (1.9% YTD, AR). 
Crude goods prices also were firm (18.7% AR, YTD) reflecting higher energy prices. Other commodities prices, reflected by the core crude price measure, fell but were up 14.6% (AR) year to date.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E802/@E80201/@E80201.HTM">Producer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Finished Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Crude Goods</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Core</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>-9.9%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Down Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 11, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021011c.jpg" width="353">
Consumer Sentiment fell sharply in mid-October according to the University of Michigan. Sentiment fell 1.7% (m/m) to its lowest since 1993.
The decline was much greater than consensus expectations and was the seventh this year.
Indexes of consumer expectations and current conditions both fell hard. 
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted. It is based on a survey of 500 households.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mid-Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>80.4</td>
<td>86.1</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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</body>
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Retail sales fell about as expected last month following firm August gains that were revised slightly down. Year to date retail sales were up at a 3.3% annual rate through September. Sales of motor vehicle and parts fell a sharp 4.8%. [...]

Retail Sales Decline

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021010a.jpg" width="353">
Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised.
Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain since April and are up 61.1% since December. So far in October the price of Arab Light crude oil has averaged $25.95/bbl versus $25.44 in September.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose 0.2% (0.3% YTD) after being unchanged in August. The foreign exchange value of the dollar is down 5.5% YTD despite recent gains, thus fueling sequential growth in nonoil import prices.
Most of the strength in import prices was limited to foods, feeds and beverages where last month prices rose 2.7% (5.5% YTD). Prices for imported capital goods fell 0.1% (-1.4% YTD), the sixth monthly decline this year. Nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.1% (-0.6% YTD) and auto prices were unchanged (0.2% YTD).
Export prices rose 0.2% (1.1% YTD). Food and industrial supplies prices (9.4% YTD) were strong for the fourth consecutive month, up 3.9%, but other export prices were again weak or fell.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>66.5%</td>
<td>34.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonpetroleum</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 10, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021010b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were lower than expected in the latest week. The prior week was revised slightly higher.At 384,000 it was the first week in seven that claims were below 400,000.
The four-week moving average fell to 412,250, the first decline since early August.
Continuing claims for unemployment fell a slight 0.4% following four weeks of sequential gain. The prior week&#39;s levelwas revised down.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment fell slightly to 2.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/28/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>384.0</td>
<td>424.0</td>
<td>-15.4%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,638</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Prices for imported commodities surged last month by the most for any month since April. Consensus expectations were for a moderate 0.3% gain. August figures were little revised. Petroleum import prices posted the largest monthly gain [...]

Import Prices Rose Twice Expectations

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021009a.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was again negative in August, the fifth negative reading this year. The reading pulled the three-month moving average to -0.13.
The index level measures deviations from zero. A zero value indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption &amp; housing, mfg. &amp; trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the level of the National Activity Index and quarterly growth in real GDP.
For a complete discussion of the Chicago Fed&#39;s National Activity Index visit: <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economicresearchanddata/national/pdffiles/CFNAI_july2002.pdf">http://www.chicagofed.org/economicresearchanddata/national/pdffiles/CFNAI_july2002.pdf</a>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.44</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>-1.03</td>
<td>-1.09</td>
<td>-0.17</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
US Dollar Up, Commodity Prices Move Sideways 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 9, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021009b.jpg" width="353">
The trade weighted value of the US dollar rose further through September and early October despite indications of a weak US economy. The dollar has garnered some support from the lack of clear indication that Fed ease is pending and from signs of economic weakness abroad.
The dollar&#39;s trade weighted value has recovered 3.3% since the weekly low set this past July.
Commodity prices have meandered recently. Increases in petroleum prices have been offset by lower prices for textiles. Metals and miscellaneous commodity prices have moved sideways during the last several weeks.

</body>
</html>

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was again negative in August, the fifth negative reading this year. The reading pulled the three-month moving average to -0.13. The index level measures deviations from zero. A zero [...]

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Down Again in August

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The U.S. Leading Economic Index fell 0.6% (-5.4% y/y) during April following an unrevised 0.3% March decline, according to a report by The Conference Board. These two changes followed a 0.2% February improvement. A 0.3% April shortfall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Five of ten components contributed negatively to the overall index in April including the ISM new orders index, building permits, stock prices, the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the Fed funds rate, as well as consumer expectations for business/economic conditions. Initial claims for unemployment insurance and the leading credit index contributed positively. New orders for capital goods and new orders for consumer goods made minimal positive contributions to the index change while the length of the average workweek had no effect on the leading index change.

A 0.2% April increase in the Coincident Economic Index followed a 0.2% March gain, revised from 0.3%. These gains came after a 0.3% February rise. Three of the four components made positive contributions to the coincident index in April, including the changes in personal income less transfers, nonagricultural payroll employment and real manufacturing & trade sales. The change in industrial production had no effect on the coincident indicators.

The Lagging Economic Index rose 0.4% (1.4% y/y) after unrevised stability in March and a 0.2% February increase. Three of the index’s seven components made positive contributions last month including the average duration of unemployment, commercial & industrial loans outstanding and the ratio of consumer credit to income. The six-month change in unit labor costs made a minimally negative contribution while the six-month change in the services CPI, banks’ prime rate and the ratio of business inventories-to-sales were unchanged.

The ratio of the coincident index to the lagging index is also viewed as a leading indicator of economic activity. This measure fell 0.2% in April, following two straight monthly increases. It was 0.8% below its most recent peak in December of last year.

The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's **BCI** database; the components are available there, and most are also in **USECON**. The expectations are in the **AS1REPNA** database. Visit the Conference Board's [website](https://www.conference-board.org/us/) for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.



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- Leading index decline is largest in six months.
- Coincident Indicators continue to increase moderately.
- Lagging index strengthens after holding steady.


U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Fall Sharply in April

Robert Brusca

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**EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype**- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

**Headline Inflation: four largest EMU members**
Statistics for the largest four members of the monetary union show inflation worse in April on balance than for the monetary union as a whole. German inflation rose by 0.8% in April, in France it rose by 0.7%, in Spain at rose by 0.5%, while in Italy it rose by 0.3%. These are month-to-month gains. However, these figures followed either flat or declining inflation (price-) performance in March for each of these four countries. The progression of inflation for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, however, still shows inflation resisting a consistent move down to 2%. German inflation runs at 2.6% over 12-months steps up to 2.7% over 6-months and reaches a 2.9% annual rate over 3-months. France’s 12-month inflation of 2.4% steps down to 2.2% over 6-months, then rises to a 3.2% annual rate over 3-months. In Italy, headline inflation is 1.1% over 12-months, similarly at a 1% annual rate over 6-months, then rises to a 1.7% annual rate over 3-months. Spain's inflation falls from 3.6% over 12-months to 3.2% over 6-months to 2.3% over 3-months- finally a European Monetary Union large country member with persistently decelerating inflation! On balance Italian inflation over 3-months is under the target that the ECB has for the monetary union as a whole, Spain’s inflation is transitioning from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months down close to the 2% mark, while Germany and France continue to show stubbornly too-high results for their headline inflation rates. All-in-all, that is not a great background to support a rate cut.

**Core inflation and its trends offer hope**
Core inflation rates produce much more beneficial results. Still, in April month-to-month core inflation increases are generally excessive for these four members. But that follows declining inflation – falling prices- for core rates in March. Germany is an exception to this pattern, but it still follows the rule of improvement because its inflation progress is flipped between the two months. Looking at sequential growth rates for core inflation or ex-energy inflation for these large country members, we find that inflation is persistently decelerating from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months for all of them except for France. France shows a pickup in inflation over 3-months compared to 6-months as core inflation rises to a 3-month rate of 2.9% after posting a 2.1% pace over 6-months. The 3-month pace for inflation x-energy for Germany is 2.1%, the core for Italy is at 1.7%, and the core for Spain is at 1.8%. All three-monthly core rates are at the doorstep or within the ECB's target range for headline EMU inflation. France is the exception. The 12-month core inflation rates are all above target but show signs of coming into line; German and French year-over-year inflation rates decline in April compared to March the Italian rate is unchanged year-over-year at 2.3% on the monthly comparison, while only Spain has an acceleration compared to a month ago and that's to a 3.3% rise from 3.1% in March.

**Is it good enough?**
The speed of inflation’s drop- Core inflation rates would seem to build a good enough base for the ECB to move ahead with rate cuts if it decides it wants to go that way. If it wants to be surer and clearer about reducing inflation it will pay more attention to the headline rates that are excessive- especially since no inflation metric is falling particularly fast anymore. The risk over ‘overshooting’ on the downside seems remote. Oil prices as measured by Brent in euros rose by 4.3% month-to-month in April after rising 1.6% in March. However, year-over-year Brent prices are down by 3.3%, so the impulse from oil is mixed across tenors. 

ECB credibility- A different view of reality looks at ECB inflation performance over five-years and finds all the metrics quite unacceptable. Over the last five years the compounded inflation rate for the monetary union is 3.7% and for the core it's 2.8%. For Germany it's 4.1%, for France it's 3.3%, and for Italy and Spain it's 3.4%. The core or X energy inflation rates do not behave much better, Germany is at 3.3% over five years on its core measure, France at 2.7%, Spain at 3%, and Italy at 2.5%. If the ECB is concerned about its credibility, then it's going to want to make sure that it gets inflation down inside of its target soon because the five-year compound inflation rates are so far over their target that clearly a central bank that claims to target 2% inflation cannot look at that five-year record and consider policies to have been a success. 

**Driving the road ahead**- Looking ahead it's very possible that inflation is on a downtrend and that policy is moving inflation in the right direction; the question remains concerns the certainty of that conclusion and the question ‘is inflation moving down fast enough?’  The ECB is going to have to measure the impact on its credibility against its desire to hit its inflation target in the short run and pay some attention to the effect that policy has on economic growth rates in the monetary union. On that score, unemployment rates throughout the European Monetary Union are still extremely low in historic comparisons… but, there has been a new sensitivity across central banks globally as they try to reduce their inflation rates ‘to target levels’ without having much impact on the unemployment rates at all - even though unemployment rates are in many places near some version of historic lows. Time will tell whether this sort of prevarication in inflation fighting that coddles the unemployment rate that is already so low is wise or has turned out to be foolhardy. 


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Europe

EMU Inflation Trends Offer Hope and Hype- Inflation in the European Monetary Union rose by 0.2% month-to-month in April, the same as in March. Core inflation, however, picked up, rising by 0.4% but that was after being flat in March. The sequential growth rates from 12-months to six-months to three-months show the headline inflation rate at 2.4% over 12-months falling to 2% over 6-months, then rising to a 3% annual rate over three-months. The core rate for the monetary union rose 2.9% over 12-months at a 2.7% annual rate over six-months, it steps up to a 2.8% annual rate over three-months. Headline inflation is resisting moving down to the 2% level consistently while core inflation appears to be stuck just short of 3%. Whether these trends are good enough depends on whether the ECB sees itself implementing precision-guided policy or playing horseshoes and hand grenades.

EMU Inflation Holds the line 2% Beckons

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Total housing starts increased 5.7% (-0.6% y/y) during April to 1.360 million units (SAAR) after falling 16.8% in March to 1.287 million units, revised from 1.321 million. Starts in February rose a little-revised 12.4% to 1.546 million units. Starts remained 24.6% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.420 million starts in April.

Housing starts by type were mixed last month. Starts of single-family units eased 0.4% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.031 million after declining 8.7% in March to 1.035 million, revised from 1.022 million. They reached a high of 1.286 units in December 2020. Multi-family starts increased 30.6% (-33.1% y/y) in April to 329,000 after falling 38.8% to 252,000 in March, revised from 299,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Regional activity was mixed in April. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 22.6% (-43.8% y/y) to 72,000 units after declining 21.8% in March and 10.5% in February. Starts in the Midwest rose 19.1% (3.4% y/y) to 181,000 following a 36.4% March decline. Starts in the South improved 10.1% (4.9% y/y) to 799,000 after a 15.9% March decline. In the West, starts fell 2.5% (+1.7% y/y) to 308,000 after declining in each of the prior three months.

Building permits declined 3.0% (-2.0% y/y) in April 1.440 million units after falling 5.0% to 1.485 million in March, revised from 1.458 million. It was the lowest level of permits since December 2022. Single-family permits eased 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) to 976,000 in April following a 4.2% March decline and a 0.4% February slip. Multi-family permits weakened 7.4% (-21.9% y/y) to 464,000, after falling 6.5% in March.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Single-family starts decline but multi-family surge.
- Starts are mixed throughout the country.
- Building permits fall to lowest level in over one year.


U.S. Housing Starts Rise Modestly in April; Building Permits Fall

Sandy Batten

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Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March and 0.4% lower than a year ago. The previously released 0.4% rise in March was revised down to a meager 0.1% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% increase in production last month. Manufacturing production slumped 0.3% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in March (initially reported as 0.5%). 

Mining activity declined for the third time in the past four months, falling 0.6% (-1.3% /y) following an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m decline in March (previously -1.4% m/m). Utilities output was the only positive part of industrial activity in April, rising 2.8% m/m (+2.3% y/y) on top of a downwardly revised 1.6% monthly gain in March (previously 2.0% m/m).

Amid the monthly volatility, manufacturing output has been relatively flat over the past nine months. In fact, the index level in April was 99.4, exactly the same as in August 2023. The manufacturing sector has been one of the most adversely affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Since April 2022 (just after the Fed initiated it rate hikes in March 2022), manufacturing output has fallen 1.4%. Within the manufacturing sector in April, durable goods production fell 0.5% m/m, its first monthly decline in three months, led by a 2.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle production and a 1.9% m/m drop in the production of electrical equipment and appliances. Production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.2% monthly increase in March. Production of selected high-technology industries increased 1.0% m/m. By contrast, petroleum and coal products output slumped 4.4%m/m, the first monthly decline in three months.

Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles slipped 01% m/m in April after being unchanged in March. Manufacturing excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.1% monthly gain in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles decreased 0.2% m/m, its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Production of consumer goods inched up 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Output of business equipment fell 0.5% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. 

Production of construction supplies fell 1.0% m/m in April, the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in April, just offsetting a 0.1% m/m decline in March.

Total capacity utilization slipped to 78.4% in April from a slightly upward revised 78.5% in March (previously 78.4%). The April reading was exactly as expected by the Actions Economics Forecast Survey. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing fell significantly to 76.9% from 77.2%. By contrast, the capacity rate for utilities rose to 71.0 from 69.2.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- IP was unchanged in April with manufacturing falling 0.3% m/m
- Manufacturing decline led by 2.0% m/m drop in motor vehicle output
- Mining fell for the third month of the past four
- Capacity utilization slipped to 78.4%


U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in April

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Import prices for all goods rose 0.9% (NSA) in April after a 0.6% March gain, revised from 0.4%, and a 0.2% February increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y change of 1.1% followed 12-month price declines all through 2023. 

Export prices increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from 0.3%, and a minimally revised 0.7% February rise. A 0.2% price gain had been expected. These gains also followed a 0.7% January increase. The 1.0% y/y decline compared to an 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year. 

The monthly rise in April import prices was led by a 2.9% increase (5.2% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after they surged 6.7% in March. The April increase was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The increase in imported petroleum costs was accompanied by a 9.2% decline in natural gas prices, off 42.5% y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% March increase. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% decline while nonauto consumer goods prices also rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 0.3% in March. 

The increase in April export prices included a 0.9% decline (-10.2% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which added to a 1.3% March drop . Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.7% (0.1% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain. Export prices of industrial supplies & materials rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of firm gain. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices strengthened 0.8% (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. A 0.1% uptick (-1.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices followed a 0.4% March rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 0.7% last month (-10.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in March. 

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database. 


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- Import prices rise for fourth consecutive month.
- Excluding fuels, import prices edge up for sixth straight month.
- Export price gain improves. 


Economy in Brief: October 2002

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