Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040524c.jpg" width="353">
Chile&#39;s Gross Domestic Product rose 1% in the first quarter of 2004 from the last quarter of 2003, the largest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2000. A small decline in domestic demand was more than offset by the exports of good and services, particularly exports of copper. Chart I shows the period to period changes in domestic demand and in exports of goods and services.
Exports of copper tend to be <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040524b.jpg" width="353"> volatile and, as they usually account for about 40% of Chile&#39;s total exports of goods, they are largely responsible for the volatility in the total exports of goods and services . In the first quarter of 2004, copper exports were especially strong and accounted for close to one half of the total export of goods. (See Chart 2) Copper exports are available monthly and the April data show a 8.4% decline from March, but they are 114.9% above April, 2003.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">(Bil 1966 Chilean Pesos)</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q4r 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp; 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q/Q &nbsp;&nbsp; %</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y&nbsp; %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">2002 %</th>
<th scope="col">2001 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>10010.0</td>
<td>9852.6</td>
<td>9618.6</td>
<td>1.60</td>
<td>4.07</td>
<td>3.12</td>
<td>2.21</td>
<td>3.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic demand</td>
<td>9832.6</td>
<td>9855.4</td>
<td>9342.9</td>
<td>-0.23</td>
<td>5.24</td>
<td>3.51</td>
<td>2.50</td>
<td>2.28</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>3561.8</td>
<td>3393.0</td>
<td>3227.9</td>
<td>4.98</td>
<td>10.34</td>
<td>7.77</td>
<td>1.52</td>
<td>7.55</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>3401.8</td>
<td>3381.6</td>
<td>3028.1</td>
<td>0.60</td>
<td>12.34</td>
<td>8.81</td>
<td>2.38</td>
<td>4.09</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">(Mil US$)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Exports</td>
<td>6970.7</td>
<td>5082.1</td>
<td>5004.1</td>
<td>37.16</td>
<td>39.30</td>
<td>&nbsp;16.16</td>
<td>0.52</td>
<td>-4.06</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Copper exports</td>
<td>3047.2</td>
<td>2058.2</td>
<td>177.2</td>
<td>48.05</td>
<td>71.96</td>
<td>19.43</td>
<td>-3.90</td>
<td>-10.27</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Chile's Gross Domestic Product rose 1% in the first quarter of 2004 from the last quarter of 2003, the largest rate of growth since the fourth quarter of 2000. A small decline in domestic demand was more than offset by the exports of [...]

Chile's Gross Domestic Product Increases 1% in Q1 of 2004. Exports of Copper Play a Major Role

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040524a.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in April to 0.64 from 0.23 in March. The latest was the highest reading since last November.
The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also improved to 0.45, the highest level since January.
A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth.
During the last twenty years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production and income, the labor market, personal consumption and housing, manufacturing and trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
The latest release of the Chicago Fed&#39;s National Activity Index is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_may2004.pdf"> here</a>.
Last week&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben S. Bernanke on Gradualism is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200405202/default.htm">here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM"> Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">April &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>0.64</td>
<td>0.23</td>
<td>-1.18</td>
<td>-0.10</td>
<td>-0.40</td>
<td>-1.18</td>
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The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) improved in April to 0.64 from 0.23 in March. The latest was the highest reading since last November. The three-month moving average of the CFNAI also improved to 0.45, the highest level [...]

Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity Index Up

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040521a.jpg" width="353">
We noted here this past Tuesday the push in retail gasoline prices above $2.00/gallon for the first time ever. The price of the US benchmark crude oil has closed above $40/barrel every day since May 11. The oil market is a world-wide one and highly sensitive to geo-political forces as well as more quantifiable production and demand factors. We don&#39;t presume here to interpret the impact of the Iraq War, for instance. But we can illustrate some of the more traditional economic aspects of this price situation.
Most prominently, demand for gasoline in the US is growing rapidly. According to Department of Energy data, gasoline consumption was up 4.5% year-on-year in the four weeks ended May 14 (volume, measured in thousands of barrels/day). The prior couple of months have seen similar magnitudes. These are higher growth rates than prevailed over the preceding three years and among the highest in the 16-year history of these data. In contrast, the demand for other petroleum products is soft. This spring, consumption of all petroleum products, including gasoline, is virtually flat with year-ago volumes, a striking development in view of the rapid growth in the overall economy.
Supply factors are responding to the upward price pressure. Oil production in the US has been drifting downward for years. But in recent months the number of operating drilling rigs has climbed noticeably. While still well below the level of 20 years ago, expansion of production operations is quite distinct. From a low annual average of 830 in 2002, the May 14 week showed 1,162 active rigs, according to the Baker Hughes tally.
World oil production has been increasing as well. Data through February (only published on May 10) shows total crude production up 3.7% from a year ago following two months averaging more than 7% gains. Production actually fell in 2001 and 2002. OPEC has participated in the production upturn.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Selected Oil Market Indicators</th>
<th scope="col">May 14</th>
<th scope="col">Apr</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">US Demand for Gasoline &nbsp; (000 b/d)</td>
<td>9168</td>
<td>8913</td>
<td>8644</td>
<td>8810</td>
<td>8887</td>
<td>8767</td>
<td>8544</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Year/year % Change</td>
<td>4.5</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">US Demand for All Refined Product &nbsp; (000 b/d)</td>
<td>19949</td>
<td>20010</td>
<td>19833</td>
<td>19962</td>
<td>20004</td>
<td>19565</td>
<td>19628</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Year/year % Change</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>-1.2</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Feb</td>
<td>Jan</td>
<td>Dec</td>
<td>Year Ago</td>
<td>2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">World Crude Oil Production &nbsp; (000 b/d)</td>
<td>71936</td>
<td>72266</td>
<td>72126</td>
<td>69343</td>
<td>69458</td>
<td>66841</td>
<td>68056</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Year/year % Change</td>
<td>3.7</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>7.8</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>-1.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OPEC Production&nbsp; &nbsp; (000 b/d)</td>
<td>29413</td>
<td>29483</td>
<td>29283</td>
<td>28810</td>
<td>28005</td>
<td>26369</td>
<td>28318</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Year/year % Change</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>12.3</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>-6.9</td>
<td>-2.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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We noted here this past Tuesday the push in retail gasoline prices above $2.00/gallon for the first time ever. The price of the US benchmark crude oil has closed above $40/barrel every day since May 11. The oil market is a world-wide [...]

Some Demand and Supply Factors in the US Oil Market

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040520b.jpg" width="353">
The CPI in Canada picked up modestly in April, rising 0.3% after three successive weak months. A sharp rise in energy seems to be the main culprit. Food prices have been flat to down all year long and the core rate, as seen in the table, has little upward force.
While the surge in energy prices certainly pushed up Canadian inflation in April, the main aspect this move seems to highlight is the volatility in the energy sector. Wide swings, both up and down, have characterized these prices over the last several years. When these prices rise sharply, they often experience outright declines soon after. The current episode is characterized by especially large up and down moves in electricity and natural gas. Gasoline prices are volatile too, but not much more than they have been historically.
Other prices are moving in a narrow range. So far this year, food prices are down, and shelter costs are up slightly. Household operation had its first monthly increase in April since December. Clothing prices are falling sharply. Recreation, reading and cultural activities have flat prices of late. Thus, one possible implication of the volatility in the energy sector is that there is less time for higher energy costs to work their way into the pricing structure of other industries. To the extent this immunity holds, it can limit the reach of those very basic prices, reducing the probability that higher energy costs produce permanently higher core inflation.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Canada CPI, % Changes</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2004</th>
December/December
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">2003</td>
<td>2002</td>
<td>2001</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Items</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; SA % Chg</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; NSA Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td><center></center></td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Items ex Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; SA % Chg</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; NSA, Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td><center></center></td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Energy</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; NSA, Yr/Yr % Chg</td>
<td>6.4</td>
<td>-4.1</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>6.7</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>-11.4</td>
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The CPI in Canada picked up modestly in April, rising 0.3% after three successive weak months. A sharp rise in energy seems to be the main culprit. Food prices have been flat to down all year long and the core rate, as seen in the [...]

Canadian CPI Picks Up with Energy; Core Inflation Remains Low

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040520a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 12,000 last week to 345,000 and the prior week&#39;s increase was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a decline in claims to 325,000.
The latest figure covers the survey period for May nonfarm payrolls and initial claims were down 11,000 (3.1%) from the April period.
The 4-week moving average of initial claims fell to 333,500 (-21.7% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 23,000 following a downwardly revised gain of 51,000 the week prior.
The insured rate of unemployment dropped back to 2.3%, the three year low.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM"> Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col"> 5/15/04</th>
<th scope="col">5/08/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 345</td>
<td>333</td>
<td>-18.6%</td>
<td>403</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; --</td>
<td>2,943</td>
<td>-19.4%</td>
<td>3,533</td>
<td>3,573</td>
<td>3,023</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Leading Indicators Uptrend Firm 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 20, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040520c.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators reported by the Conference Board rose a slightly less-than-expected 0.1% in April, but the prior month&#39;s gain was revised to 0.8% from 0.3% reported initially.
The slackening in April reflected m/m gains in only 40% of the component series versus gains in 70% of the components over a six-month span. During the last ten years there has been a 63% correlation between the six-month diffusion index of the leaders and quarterly growth in real GDP.
Shorter manufacturing weekly hours had the largest negative influence on the leaders in April. Other negative contributions were slight. A higher money supply and a steeper yield curve made meaningful positive contributions.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.
The coincident indicators rose 0.3% and all of the component series were higher over one and six month spans.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators rose 0.2% to another record level despite a 0.2% gain in the lagging indicators. The ratio is an indicator of excess relative to actual economic performance.
Visit the Conference Board&#39;s <a href="http://www.conference-board.org">site</a> for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM"> Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Down, Hiring Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 20, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040520d.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s April index of general business conditions in the manufacturing sector fell unexpectedly to 23.8. The 8.7 point decline versus April reversed all of that month&#39;s gain and dropped the index to its lowest since October. Consensus expectations had been for a slight decline to 31.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index and quarterly growth in real GDP. The correlation with quarterly growth in factory sector industrial production has been 74%.
The separate index of expected business conditions in six months recovered to the highest level since February after several months of decline
Amongst the sub indexes new orders fell sharply to the lowest level since last August, however, the employment index jumped to the highest level since 1973.
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the sub indexes.
The prices paid index surged to its highest level since 1988.
The Philadelphia Fed index is based on a survey of 250 regional manufacturing firms, but these firms sell nationally and internationally.
The latest Business Outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank can be found <a href="http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0504.html">here</a>.
From the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is this new article titled &quot;What Investment Patterns across Equipment and Industries Tell Us about the Recent Investment Boom and Bust&quot; and could be read <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci10-6.html">here</a>.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM"> Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">April</th>
<th scope="col">May &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>23.8</td>
<td>32.5</td>
<td>-4.2</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>-17.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>51.9</td>
<td>9.6</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for jobless insurance rose 12,000 last week to 345,000 and the prior week's increase was revised up slightly. Consensus expectations had been for a decline in claims to 325,000. The latest figure covers the survey [...]

Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040519c.jpg" width="353">
Labor market conditions have been mixed in several moderately sized economies in Europe and western Asia, which reported current figures today. In several of these nations, however, signs suggest that a stabilization has perhaps occurred, so that, as in the US, employment might gain more vigor in coming months.
In Kazakhstan, the unemployment rate actual fell during much of the last four years for which data are available. Economic activity there is oil-centered and recently strong consumption of petroleum and rising prices are a benefit to them. At the same time, the unemployment rate has now been basically flat for the past six months at 1.9%, just above its record low of 1.8%. So there has been a pause in the improvement and it will be interesting to see if the recent surge in oil prices gives the Kazakh economy a boost.
In the Netherlands, there has been considerable back-tracking of employment and a commensurate rise in the number unemployed. In fact, while employment has stabilized in the last six months, unemployment has continued rising. As seen in the graph, this is tied to further growth in the labor force, which extended a fairly steady trend throughout the history of these data, albeit only four years. Perhaps as happens in the US, the recently more stable employment picture is encouraging people to keep looking for jobs, rather than back away from the labor force.
Sweden and Denmark are seeing the first signs of a turnaround in employment. In both countries, the number employed was higher in the first quarter (Denmark) or in April (Sweden) than its year-ago value for the first time in many months. Denmark has seen a downtrend in jobs for nearly two years, and Sweden for 11 months. So while the gains are not large and have so far recouped little of the recent contraction in employment, they lend hope of more favorable conditions to come.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Mar 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Feb 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Kazakhstan:Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>N.A.*</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands:Employment (SA, Thous)</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>7093</td>
<td>7090</td>
<td>7132</td>
<td>7114</td>
<td>7125</td>
<td>7062</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployed (SA, Thous)</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>482</td>
<td>483</td>
<td>369</td>
<td>397</td>
<td>302</td>
<td>352</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Denmark:Employment (NSA, Thous)</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>2680</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>2667</td>
<td>2693</td>
<td>2712</td>
<td>2723</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Sweden:Employment (NSA, Thous)</td>
<td>4209</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>4203</td>
<td>4232</td>
<td>4242</td>
<td>4239</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (NSA, %)</td>
<td>5.4</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>N.A.</td>
<td>4.6</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>4.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Labor market conditions have been mixed in several moderately sized economies in Europe and western Asia, which reported current figures today. In several of these nations, however, signs suggest that a stabilization has perhaps [...]

Employment Stabilizes in 3 Countries, but Unemployment Unimproved

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040519b.jpg" width="353">
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association tumbled 11.9% (-58.1% y/y) last week led by a 16.8% collapse in applications to refinance (-78.2% y/y).
Purchase applications posted the first w/w decline in a month and fell 8.1% (+14.8% y/y). Purchase applications so far this month are 3.6% ahead of the April average.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell slightly to 6.48% from 6.61% the week prior. The average for April was 6.16% versus 5.65% averaged in March. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage similarly fell to 5.93% from 6.03% the week prior. The average for April was 5.54% versus 5.00% in March.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">

</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM"> MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/14/04</th>
<th scope="col">05/07/04</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>654.1</td>
<td>742.2</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>454.2</td>
<td>494.3</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,816.9</td>
<td>2,184.6</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Gasoline Prices Set Another Record At $2.02 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> May 19, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040519a.jpg" width="353">
The US average retail gasoline price for all formulations jumped above $2.00/gallon for the first time ever last week. At $2.02 per gallon the price was up more than twenty cents from an average of $1.80 in April.
Crude oil prices similarly have surged with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude at $40.53 (+38.4% y/y) yesterday versus an average $36.69 last month.
Wholesale natural gas prices also have moved up and last week averaged $6.28/mmbtu (+4.1% y/y).
&quot;Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/04/05/Kliesen.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W4/@W403/@W40303/@W40303.HTM"> US Retail Gasoline Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">05/17/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/29/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Formulations ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$2.02</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>34.6%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.34</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association tumbled 11.9% (-58.1% y/y) last week led by a 16.8% collapse in applications to refinance (-78.2% y/y). Purchase applications posted the first w/w decline [...]

Mortgage Applications Fell Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040518e.jpg" width="353">
Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have recently released data on their first quarter Gross Domestic Products. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, year-over-year growth in Japan was 5.36%, Singapore, 7.48% and Taiwan, 6.28%.
The increases in the rates of growth in each country over the past year are beginning to bring about a lessening of the deflationary climate that has characterized the area for the past several years. Japan has experienced the longest and most severe deflation; and although there was a slight decline in deflation in the first quarter, it is still too early to say that the trend has been reversed. In Taiwan and Singapore, however, the data are more encouraging. The rate of decline in Taiwan&#39;s deflator has moderated over the past year and in Singapore there was a 3% increase in the deflator in the first quarter of this year.
While these countries have been experiencing deflationary trends, China is contending with rapidly rising prices as its economic growth accelerates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Year over Year Growth&nbsp; Not seasonally adjusted</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q3&nbsp; 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 03</th>
<th scope="col"> Q1 03&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Singapore</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; GDP</td>
<td>7.48</td>
<td>4.90</td>
<td>1.70</td>
<td>-3.87</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>1.09</td>
<td>3.29</td>
<td>-2.37</td>
<td>9.41</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Deflator</td>
<td>3.02</td>
<td>-1.08</td>
<td>1.76</td>
<td>-1.82</td>
<td>0.43</td>
<td>-0.41</td>
<td>0.40</td>
<td>-1.14</td>
<td>4.48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Taiwan</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; GDP</td>
<td>6.28</td>
<td>5.17</td>
<td>4.18</td>
<td>-0.08</td>
<td>3.52</td>
<td>3.24&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>-2.18</td>
<td>5.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Deflator</td>
<td>-1.72</td>
<td>-2.52</td>
<td>-1.72</td>
<td>-1.89</td>
<td>-2.52</td>
<td>-2.17</td>
<td>-0.97</td>
<td>0.55</td>
<td>-1.79</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Japan</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; GDP</td>
<td>5.36</td>
<td>3.17</td>
<td>1.99</td>
<td>2.19</td>
<td>2.73</td>
<td>2.53</td>
<td>-0.21</td>
<td>0.63</td>
<td>2.13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Deflator</td>
<td>-2.51</td>
<td>-2.66</td>
<td>-2.08</td>
<td>-2.54</td>
<td>-3.21</td>
<td>-2.79</td>
<td>-1.16</td>
<td>-1.54</td>
<td>-1.94</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Japan, Singapore and Taiwan have recently released data on their first quarter Gross Domestic Products. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, year-over-year growth in Japan was 5.36%, Singapore, 7.48% and Taiwan, 6.28%. The increases in [...]

Strong Growth in Asia excl China Beginning to Lessen Deflationary Tendencies

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Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

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Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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250430Q1.jpg

Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: May 2004

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