Global| May 19 2004Mortgage Applications Fell Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association tumbled 11.9% (-58.1% y/y) last week led by a 16.8% collapse in applications to refinance (-78.2% y/y). Purchase applications posted the first w/w decline [...]
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association tumbled 11.9% (-58.1% y/y) last week led by a 16.8% collapse in applications to refinance (-78.2% y/y).
Purchase applications posted the first w/w decline in a month and fell 8.1% (+14.8% y/y). Purchase applications so far this month are 3.6% ahead of the April average.
During the last ten years there has been a 56% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage fell slightly to 6.48% from 6.61% the week prior. The average for April was 6.16% versus 5.65% averaged in March. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage similarly fell to 5.93% from 6.03% the week prior. The average for April was 5.54% versus 5.00% in March.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site here.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100) | 05/14/04 | 05/07/04 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 654.1 | 742.2 | 1,067.9 | 799.7 | 625.6 |
| Purchase | 454.2 | 494.3 | 395.1 | 354.7 | 304.9 |
| Refinancing | 1,816.9 | 2,184.6 | 4,981.8 | 3,388.0 | 2,491.0 |
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2004
The US average retail gasoline price for all formulations jumped above $2.00/gallon for the first time ever last week. At $2.02 per gallon the price was up more than twenty cents from an average of $1.80 in April.
Crude oil prices similarly have surged with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude at $40.53 (+38.4% y/y) yesterday versus an average $36.69 last month.
Wholesale natural gas prices also have moved up and last week averaged $6.28/mmbtu (+4.1% y/y).
"Monetary Policy Actions, Macroeconomic Data Releases, and Inflation Expectations" from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| US Retail Gasoline Prices | 05/17/04 | 12/29/03 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Formulations ($/Gal.) | $2.02 | $1.48 | 34.6% | $1.56 | $1.34 | $1.42 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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