Employment Stabilizes in 3 Countries, but Unemployment Unimproved

Labor market conditions have been mixed in several moderately sized economies in Europe and western Asia, which reported current figures today. In several of these nations, however, signs suggest that a stabilization has perhaps occurred, so that, as in the US, employment might gain more vigor in coming months.

In Kazakhstan, the unemployment rate actual fell during much of the last four years for which data are available. Economic activity there is oil-centered and recently strong consumption of petroleum and rising prices are a benefit to them. At the same time, the unemployment rate has now been basically flat for the past six months at 1.9%, just above its record low of 1.8%. So there has been a pause in the improvement and it will be interesting to see if the recent surge in oil prices gives the Kazakh economy a boost.

In the Netherlands, there has been considerable back-tracking of employment and a commensurate rise in the number unemployed. In fact, while employment has stabilized in the last six months, unemployment has continued rising. As seen in the graph, this is tied to further growth in the labor force, which extended a fairly steady trend throughout the history of these data, albeit only four years. Perhaps as happens in the US, the recently more stable employment picture is encouraging people to keep looking for jobs, rather than back away from the labor force.

Sweden and Denmark are seeing the first signs of a turnaround in employment. In both countries, the number employed was higher in the first quarter (Denmark) or in April (Sweden) than its year-ago value for the first time in many months. Denmark has seen a downtrend in jobs for nearly two years, and Sweden for 11 months. So while the gains are not large and have so far recouped little of the recent contraction in employment, they lend hope of more favorable conditions to come.