Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129e.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in Japan surged in October by 1.6%, more than reversing a 0.7% setback in September. Analysts polled by major press services had looked for September&#39;s decline to be repeated in October by 0.4% or 0.5%, so the result was a major surprise.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129f.jpg" width="353">
Gains were widespread, particularly among durable goods industries. Metals and machinery of various kinds all had sizable increases, as suggested by the selection in the table below. General machinery halted a three-month decline with a substantial 6.5% jump which brought it 10.8% above a year ago. Semiconductors and other electronics rose 2.8% in October, putting the volume of those industries&#39; output a whopping 18.9% above October 2005.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129g.jpg" width="353">
Clearly, not all industries participated, with petroleum and related sectors showing some weakness. Petroleum refining and processing itself has fallen markedly, down 3.6% in October and 8.0% on the year-ago amount. Chemicals (excluding drugs) have been off modestly three months running, carrying them down 0.2% from a year ago. Textiles and ceramic products were also down. Plastics, paper, rubber and furniture all were little changed.
Nonetheless, the outsized increases in some key industries are striking. Analysts have been divided over whether the Japanese economy was ready to bear higher interest rates, and these results give further credibility to the Bank of Japan&#39;s general stance in that direction. Notably in this report, the main push was in capital goods; excluding transportation equipment, output in those industries jumped 10.1% in the month. Production in these sectors is by nature volatile, so long-range conclusions can&#39;t be drawn from the one-month move, but it points toward a firm economy, not a soft one, as had been hinted in other recent data.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J3/@J3.HTM">JAPAN</a><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J3/@J3.HTM">, Seas Adj*</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series, 2000=100</td>
<td>107.8</td>
<td>106.1</td>
<td>106.8</td>
<td>101.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>100.2</td>
<td>95.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">General Machinery</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Electronic Parts, Etc</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>18.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>17.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemicals (ex Drugs)</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Petroleum &amp; Products</td>
<td>-3.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-8.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Industrial production in Japan surged in October by 1.6%, more than reversing a 0.7% setback in September. Analysts polled by major press services had looked for September's decline to be repeated in October by 0.4% or 0.5%, so the [...]

Sharp Rise in Japanese Industrial Production for October; Capital Goods Especially Strong

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications repeated the prior period&#39;s decline and fell 3.9% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Last week&#39;s decline was due to a collapse in applications to refinance which doubled the prior week&#39;s drop and fell 9.6%.The decline reversed the gains logged earlier in November.
Purchase applications recovered about half of the prior week&#39;s decline with a 1.3% increase. On average, November purchase applications rose 6.4% from the October level. Purchase applications fell 3.6% last month from September on average.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was unchanged at 6.32%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate for 15-year financing, however, slipped to 6.08%. The peak for 15 year financing was 6.75% during June. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/17/06</th>
<th scope="col">11/10/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>599.0</td>
<td>623.6</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>406.7</td>
<td>401.4</td>
<td>-14.6%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,749.6</td>
<td>1,935.3</td>
<td>17.9%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The total number of mortgage applications repeated the prior period's decline and fell 3.9% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Last week's decline was due to a collapse in applications to refinance which doubled [...]

Mortgage Applications Down on Lower Refis

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single family homes fell 3.7% to 1.004M during October and reversed all of a downwardly revised gain the prior month. The decline exceeded expectations for stability near 1.050M.
Moving in the other direction, the median sales price of a new single family home jumped 13.9% to $249,500 and more than reversed the prior month&#39;s decline.
New home sales during the first ten months of this year are down 17.2% from the first ten months of 2005.
Sales rose m/m only (slightly) in the West (-35.5% y/y). In the Northeast sales fell by 39.0% (-52.6% y/y) to the lowest level since 1995. In the Midwest sales fell as well (-26.5% y/y and down South sales fell moderately m/m (-15.4% y/y).
The number of new homes for sale fell for the third consecutive month (+13.9% y/y). The year to year breakdown by region is as follows: Northeast, 22.7%; West, 19.2%; South, 18.6%; Midwest, -2.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E904.HTM">U.S. New Homes</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (AR, 000&#39;s)</td>
<td>1,004</td>
<td>1,037</td>
<td>-25.4%</td>
<td>1,280</td>
<td>1,201</td>
<td>1,091</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA)</td>
<td>$248,500</td>
<td>$218,200</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>$234,208</td>
<td>$217,817</td>
<td>$191,383</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Sales of new single family homes fell 3.7% to 1.004M during October and reversed all of a downwardly revised gain the prior month. The decline exceeded expectations for stability near 1.050M. Moving in the other direction, the median [...]

New Home Sales Fell, Prices Increase

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129b.jpg" width="353">
U.S. real GDP growth for 3Q &#39;06 was revised up to 2.2% (AR) from the advance estimate of just 1.6% growth. The revision exceeded Consensus estimates for a 1.8% increase. However, the rise in GDP last quarter still was the second slowest quarterly growth rate since 1Q 2003 and represented slowdown from 3.5% growth during the prior four quarters.
Despite slower growth in activity, corporate profitability rose a firm 4.2% (30.9% y/y) last quarter. (The comparison versus last year is exaggerated by the losses suffered due to Hurricane Katrina.) Nonfinancial corporate profits increased 8.2% (25.8% y/y) last quarter, a solid rebound from the 3.6% decline during 2Q. To the downside, however, were profits earned by US financial corporations which fell 0.5% (+62.7% y/y) and by foreign entities which fell 1.2% (+6.1% y/y).
The upward revision to GDP growth mostly reflected reduced deterioration in the net export deficit to a 0.2 percentage point subtraction. Export growth was little changed at 6.3% (9.0% y/y) but the gain in imports was reduced to 5.3% (7.2% y/y).
Inventory accumulation also added 0.2 percentage points to GDP rather than subtracting slightly, as initially estimated.
Residential investment was notably weak last quarter and fell a little revised 18.0% (AR, -7.9% y/y). It was the fourth consecutive decline, the largest since 1991 and sapped 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter. That subtraction was the largest by housing since 1981.
Growth in personal consumption was reduced slightly to 2.9% (2.7% y/y) but nonresidential fixed investment growth was increased to 10.0% (8.3% y/y). That was enough to leave the growth in final sales to domestic purchasers about unchanged at 2.1%.
Government expenditures were raised slightly to 2.2% (1.7% y/y) growth though the Federal government&#39;s spending on defense fell a deepened 1.1% (-1.2% y/y), the third decline in the last four quarters.
The GDP chain price index was unchanged at 1.8%, its weakest quarterly advance in over three years. The PCE chain price index grew 2.4% (2.8% y/y) which was slightly less than estimated earlier. Less food &amp; energy the PCE chain price index grew 2.2% (2.4% y/y), a slowdown from a 2.7% rise during 2Q. The price index for residential investment fell 0.3% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since early 2002.
Historic Imbalances and Great Debates: Do The Economists See It Coming? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf51/papers/berger.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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U.S. real GDP growth for 3Q '06 was revised up to 2.2% (AR) from the advance estimate of just 1.6% growth. The revision exceeded Consensus estimates for a 1.8% increase. However, the rise in GDP last quarter still was the second [...]

US 3Q GDP Growth Revised Up, Profits Firm

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129b.jpg" width="353">
U.S. real GDP growth for 3Q &#39;06 was revised up to 2.2% (AR) from the advance estimate of just 1.6% growth. The revision exceeded Consensus estimates for a 1.8% increase. However, the rise in GDP last quarter still was the second slowest quarterly growth rate since 1Q 2003 and represented slowdown from 3.5% growth during the prior four quarters.
Despite slower growth in activity, corporate profitability rose a firm 4.2% (30.9% y/y) last quarter. (The comparison versus last year is exaggerated by the losses suffered due to Hurricane Katrina.) Nonfinancial corporate profits increased 8.2% (25.8% y/y) last quarter, a solid rebound from the 3.6% decline during 2Q. To the downside, however, were profits earned by US financial corporations which fell 0.5% (+62.7% y/y) and by foreign entities which fell 1.2% (+6.1% y/y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129c.jpg" width="353">
The upward revision to GDP growth mostly reflected reduced deterioration in the net export deficit to a 0.2 percentage point subtraction. Export growth was little changed at 6.3% (9.0% y/y) but the gain in imports was reduced to 5.3% (7.2% y/y).
Inventory accumulation also added 0.2 percentage points to GDP rather than subtracting slightly, as initially estimated.
Residential investment was notably weak last quarter and fell a little revised 18.0% (AR, -7.9% y/y). It was the fourth consecutive decline, the largest since 1991 and sapped 1.2 percentage points from GDP growth last quarter. That subtraction was the largest by housing since 1981.
Growth in personal consumption was reduced slightly to 2.9% (2.7% y/y) but nonresidential fixed investment growth was increased to 10.0% (8.3% y/y). That was enough to leave the growth in final sales to domestic purchasers about unchanged at 2.1%.
Government expenditures were raised slightly to 2.2% (1.7% y/y) growth though the Federal government&#39;s spending on defense fell a deepened 1.1% (-1.2% y/y), the third decline in the last four quarters.
The GDP chain price index was unchanged at 1.8%, its weakest quarterly advance in over three years. The PCE chain price index grew 2.4% (2.8% y/y) which was slightly less than estimated earlier. Less food &amp; energy the PCE chain price index grew 2.2% (2.4% y/y), a slowdown from a 2.7% rise during 2Q. The price index for residential investment fell 0.3% (+3.2% y/y), the first decline since early 2002.
Historic Imbalances and Great Debates: Do The Economists See It Coming? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/conf/conf51/papers/berger.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06 (Prelim.)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;06 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Fell, Prices Increase 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 29, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single family homes fell 3.7% to 1.004M during October and reversed all of a downwardly revised gain the prior month. The decline exceeded expectations for stability near 1.050M.
Moving in the other direction, the median sales price of a new single family home jumped 13.9% to $249,500 and more than reversed the prior month&#39;s decline.
New home sales during the first ten months of this year are down 17.2% from the first ten months of 2005.
Sales rose m/m only (slightly) in the West (-35.5% y/y). In the Northeast sales fell by 39.0% (-52.6% y/y) to the lowest level since 1995. In the Midwest sales fell as well (-26.5% y/y and down South sales fell moderately m/m (-15.4% y/y).
The number of new homes for sale fell for the third consecutive month (+13.9% y/y). The year to year breakdown by region is as follows: Northeast, 22.7%; West, 19.2%; South, 18.6%; Midwest, -2.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E904.HTM">U.S. New Homes</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Sales (AR, 000&#39;s)</td>
<td>1,004</td>
<td>1,037</td>
<td>-25.4%</td>
<td>1,280</td>
<td>1,201</td>
<td>1,091</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Median Price (NSA)</td>
<td>$248,500</td>
<td>$218,200</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>$234,208</td>
<td>$217,817</td>
<td>$191,383</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Down on Lower Refis 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 29, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129d.jpg" width="353">
The total number of mortgage applications repeated the prior period&#39;s decline and fell 3.9% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Last week&#39;s decline was due to a collapse in applications to refinance which doubled the prior week&#39;s drop and fell 9.6%.The decline reversed the gains logged earlier in November.
Purchase applications recovered about half of the prior week&#39;s decline with a 1.3% increase. On average, November purchase applications rose 6.4% from the October level. Purchase applications fell 3.6% last month from September on average.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was unchanged at 6.32%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate for 15-year financing, however, slipped to 6.08%. The peak for 15 year financing was 6.75% during June. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey covers roughly 50% of all U.S. residential mortgage applications processed each week by mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/17/06</th>
<th scope="col">11/10/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>599.0</td>
<td>623.6</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>406.7</td>
<td>401.4</td>
<td>-14.6%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,749.6</td>
<td>1,935.3</td>
<td>17.9%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Sharp Rise in Japanese Industrial Production for October; Capital Goods Especially Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> November 29, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129e.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in Japan surged in October by 1.6%, more than reversing a 0.7% setback in September. Analysts polled by major press services had looked for September&#39;s decline to be repeated in October by 0.4% or 0.5%, so the result was a major surprise.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129f.jpg" width="353">
Gains were widespread, particularly among durable goods industries. Metals and machinery of various kinds all had sizable increases, as suggested by the selection in the table below. General machinery halted a three-month decline with a substantial 6.5% jump which brought it 10.8% above a year ago. Semiconductors and other electronics rose 2.8% in October, putting the volume of those industries&#39; output a whopping 18.9% above October 2005.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061129g.jpg" width="353">
Clearly, not all industries participated, with petroleum and related sectors showing some weakness. Petroleum refining and processing itself has fallen markedly, down 3.6% in October and 8.0% on the year-ago amount. Chemicals (excluding drugs) have been off modestly three months running, carrying them down 0.2% from a year ago. Textiles and ceramic products were also down. Plastics, paper, rubber and furniture all were little changed.
Nonetheless, the outsized increases in some key industries are striking. Analysts have been divided over whether the Japanese economy was ready to bear higher interest rates, and these results give further credibility to the Bank of Japan&#39;s general stance in that direction. Notably in this report, the main push was in capital goods; excluding transportation equipment, output in those industries jumped 10.1% in the month. Production in these sectors is by nature volatile, so long-range conclusions can&#39;t be drawn from the one-month move, but it points toward a firm economy, not a soft one, as had been hinted in other recent data.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J3/@J3.HTM">JAPAN</a><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/JAPAN/@J3/@J3.HTM">, Seas Adj*</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Sept 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Headline Series, 2000=100</td>
<td>107.8</td>
<td>106.1</td>
<td>106.8</td>
<td>101.6</td>
<td>101.3</td>
<td>100.2</td>
<td>95.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; % Change</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>-0.7</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>3.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">General Machinery</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>-1.6</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>10.8</td>
<td>5.2</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Electronic Parts, Etc</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>18.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>17.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chemicals (ex Drugs)</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Petroleum &amp; Products</td>
<td>-3.6</td>
<td>-1.5</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-8.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061128j.jpg" width="353">
The recent rapid fall of the U. S. dollar, particularly against the Euro and the British Pound has sent tremors in the financial world. Is this the beginning of a more extended fall in the dollar? Will China change its policy of minimal appreciation? What will be the impact on the recovery in Europe? What will be the impacts on the U. S. consumer and on U. S. inflation? How will central banks react? While this short note cannot begin to address these questions, what it can do is point to some of the data that will provide useful background.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061128k.jpg" width="353">
A root cause of the dollar&#39;s decline is the enormous U. S. balance of payments deficit as shown in the first chart and found in the Haver data bases USECON and USINT. Currently the deficit is 6.6% of Gross Domestic Product. However, the threat to the dollar from this source has been kept at bay, by the willingness of those countries with whom the U. S. has a deficit to hold their surpluses in dollar denominated instruments. Some of these countries are beginning to diversify their holdings from dollar assets to particularly euro assets. Of the allocated reserves published by the International Monetary Fund and reported in the Haver data base IFS, the year to year increases in the dollar and euro holdings are shown in the second chart. While the year to year increases in dollar holdings still exceed those of euro holdings, the excess increase of dollar holding has declined significantly since early 2005. Data on the major foreign holders of U. S. Treasury securities are found in the Haver data base USINT, Chart three shows the annual changes in the holdings of US Treasuries by China and Japan. While China has reduced its annual additions Japan has actually been reducing its holdings.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061128l.jpg" width="353">
Finally, the movement of exchange rates can be monitored using the Haver data bases DAILY and INTDAILY. The recent fall of the dollar has been uneven with Europe bearing the major appreciation. The Euro hit a recent low relative to the U. S. dollar on October 10 when the euro was equivalent to 1.2502 U.S. dollars. In the month and a half since then, the euro has appreciated 4.9% to 1.312. The UK pound has appreciated almost as much, 4.4%, and now stands at $1.9369. The changes in Asian currencies have been more varied and more muted. The Japanese Yen, the South Korean Won, the Thai Baht, the Singapore dollar and the Indian Rupee have appreciated between 2.5 and 3.1% during this period. The Malaysian ringgit appreciated 1.74% and the Philippine peso, 0.80%. Among the Greater China group, the Taiwan dollar appreciated 1.19%, the Chinese Yuan 0.86% and Hong Kong a mere 0.22%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">EXCHANGE RATES&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 10 06</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 27 06</th>
<th scope="col">Appreciation %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro (U.S. Dollar)</td>
<td>1.2502</td>
<td>1.3120</td>
<td>4.94</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK Pound (U.S. Dollar)</td>
<td>1.8548</td>
<td>1.9368</td>
<td>4.42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Japanese Yen (Yen/USD)</td>
<td>119.18</td>
<td>116.12</td>
<td>3.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"> South Korea Won (Won/USD) </td>
<td>959.2</td>
<td>930.3</td>
<td>3.11</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Thailand Baht (Baht/USD)</td>
<td>37.46</td>
<td>36.44</td>
<td>2.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Singapore $ (S$/USD)</td>
<td>1.5904</td>
<td>1.5494</td>
<td>2.65</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> India Rupee (Rupee/USD)</td>
<td>45.67</td>
<td>44.56</td>
<td>2.49</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Malaysia Ringgit (Ringgit/USD)</td>
<td>3.693</td>
<td>3.630</td>
<td>1.74</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Taiwan $ (T$/USD)</td>
<td>33.09</td>
<td>32.70</td>
<td>1.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hong Kong $ (HK$/USD)</td>
<td>7.7928</td>
<td>7.7760</td>
<td>0.22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">China Yuan (Yuan/USD)</td>
<td>7.9100</td>
<td>7.8426</td>
<td>0.86</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The recent rapid fall of the U. S. dollar, particularly against the Euro and the British Pound has sent tremors in the financial world. Is this the beginning of a more extended fall in the dollar? Will China change its policy of [...]

Some Haver Sources to Monitor the Ups and Downs of the U. S. Dollar

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061128i.jpg" width="353">
 Regular unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose a penny last week to an average $2.25 per gallon after the penny increase during the prior week. Average gas prices this month nevertheless fell two cents from the October average of $2.25 per gallon.
Yesterday, the spot market (NY harbor) price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $1.63, unchanged from the average during last week.
Crude oil prices yesterday of $60.33 (5.2% y/y) for a barrel of WTI were up from the $57.65 averaged last week.
The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is available <a href="http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html">here</a>.
How Resilient Is The Modern Economy to Energy Price Shocks? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available <a href="http://www.atl.frb.org/filelegacydocs/erq306_jeske.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Weekly Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/27/06</th>
<th scope="col">11/20/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline Price, Regular</td>
<td>$2.25</td>
<td>$2.24</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>$2.27</td>
<td>$1.85</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Regular unleaded gasoline prices at the pump rose a penny last week to an average $2.25 per gallon after the penny increase during the prior week. Average gas prices this month nevertheless fell two cents from the October average of [...]

Gasoline Prices Up Another Penny

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/061128h.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales during Thanksgiving week slipped 0.4% after a 1.2% surge the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Despite the decline November sales advanced 0.3% from the October average, which fell 0.7%, but it was only the second monthly gain since April.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell 0.3% (+0.1% y/y) after two week&#39;s of respectable increase.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/25/06</th>
<th scope="col">11/18/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>466.5</td>
<td>468.3</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Chain store sales during Thanksgiving week slipped 0.4% after a 1.2% surge the prior period, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. Despite the decline November sales advanced 0.3% from the October [...]

Weekly Chain Store Sales Slip, Month A Bit Better

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: November 2006

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