Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129f.jpg" width="353">
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than recovered the prior month&#39;s plunge and jumped to 71%, the highest level since May.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;03</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>36</td>
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</tbody>
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The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003. The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising Up Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129e.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications again fell sharply by 3.5%. Though the November average was up versus October, the latest weekly level was the lowest in the last four. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance skid 8.3% w/w leaving the November average up 2.4% versus October.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.92%. It averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.39%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/19/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/12/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>715.0</td>
<td>758.3</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>463.3</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,179.3</td>
<td>2,375.4</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). [...]

Mortgage Applications Plunged

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 332,000 (-9.7% y/y), the lowest level since November 2000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 following a downwardly revised 24,000 drop the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the seventh week.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>335</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,755</td>
<td>-18.1%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
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Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims. The four week moving average of initial claims fell to [...]

Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129c.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation.
Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for computers &amp; electronic products were dragged 5.7% (+3.7% y/y) lower by a 10.3% (+7.0% y/y) decline in orders for computers. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance orders also were down by 3.5% (+2.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline.
Transportation equipment orders rose 0.3% but the gain was wholly due to a 35.2% (-17.2% y/y) spurt in defense aircraft. Motor vehicle &amp; parts orders fell 2.8% (-3.2% y/y) and nondefense aircraft orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) following huge declines during the prior two months. Durable goods orders less transportation fell 0.7% (+9.6% y/y).
Orders for machinery were again quite strong logging a 3.7% m/m gain (+24.7% y/y). fabricated metals orders also rose by 3.1% (+13.1% Y/Y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129b.jpg" width="353">
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments fell.
Inventories of durable goods 0.5% (6.5% y/y). The inventory to shipment ratio was about stable at 1.39, up from the low of 1.35 in March but well down from the highs near 1.7 in 2001.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
</tr>
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Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation. Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. 
Sales were mixed m/m around the country. In the Northeast sales rose sharply for the third straight month but were down 3.4% y/y. In the West sales also rose sharply for the third consecutive month and were nearly a third higher than last October. To the downside were sales in the South by 9.1% (-4.9% Y/Y) and sales in the Midwest were off 3.6% (+8.4% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home jumped 9.1% m/m to $221,800 (14.3% y/y), near the record high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,226</td>
<td>1,224</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
<td>907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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</html>

Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. Sales were mixed m/m around [...]

New Home Sales Higher Still

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single-family homes edged 0.2% higher in October to 1.226M following a 7.0% September gain that was double the initial indication. Consensus estimates had been for a decline in sales to 1.200M. 
Sales were mixed m/m around the country. In the Northeast sales rose sharply for the third straight month but were down 3.4% y/y. In the West sales also rose sharply for the third consecutive month and were nearly a third higher than last October. To the downside were sales in the South by 9.1% (-4.9% Y/Y) and sales in the Midwest were off 3.6% (+8.4% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home jumped 9.1% m/m to $221,800 (14.3% y/y), near the record high.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,226</td>
<td>1,224</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
<td>907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129c.jpg" width="353">
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation.
Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for computers &amp; electronic products were dragged 5.7% (+3.7% y/y) lower by a 10.3% (+7.0% y/y) decline in orders for computers. Electrical equipment &amp; appliance orders also were down by 3.5% (+2.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline.
Transportation equipment orders rose 0.3% but the gain was wholly due to a 35.2% (-17.2% y/y) spurt in defense aircraft. Motor vehicle &amp; parts orders fell 2.8% (-3.2% y/y) and nondefense aircraft orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) following huge declines during the prior two months. Durable goods orders less transportation fell 0.7% (+9.6% y/y).
Orders for machinery were again quite strong logging a 3.7% m/m gain (+24.7% y/y). fabricated metals orders also rose by 3.1% (+13.1% Y/Y).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129b.jpg" width="353">
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments fell.
Inventories of durable goods 0.5% (6.5% y/y). The inventory to shipment ratio was about stable at 1.39, up from the low of 1.35 in March but well down from the highs near 1.7 in 2001.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Excluding Aircraft</td>
<td>-3.6%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Unexpectedly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129d.jpg" width="353">
Last week, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 12,000 to 323,000 from a little revised 335,000 the prior week. The Consensus expectation had been for 335,000 claims.
The four week moving average of initial claims fell to 332,000 (-9.7% y/y), the lowest level since November 2000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 29,000 following a downwardly revised 24,000 drop the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.2% for the seventh week.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/13/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>335</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
<td>402</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>406</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,755</td>
<td>-18.1%</td>
<td>3,531</td>
<td>3,570</td>
<td>3,018</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Plunged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129e.jpg" width="353">
Mortgage applications plunged 5.7% last week for the second sharp w/w decline this month, but the average level of activity so far in November still was up 3.1% from October according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
Purchase applications again fell sharply by 3.5%. Though the November average was up versus October, the latest weekly level was the lowest in the last four. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance skid 8.3% w/w leaving the November average up 2.4% versus October.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 5.92%. It averaged 5.92% in October. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also fell to 5.39%.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/19/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/12/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>715.0</td>
<td>758.3</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>463.3</td>
<td>480.3</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>2,179.3</td>
<td>2,375.4</td>
<td>-16.6%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Help-Wanted Advertising Up Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129f.jpg" width="353">
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than recovered the prior month&#39;s plunge and jumped to 71%, the highest level since May.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;03</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Faded Late Month 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129j.jpg" width="353">
Though the November reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 92.8, that was lower than the mid-month reading of 95.5 and indicated that Sentiment faded as the month progressed. Consensus expectations for a reading of 96.0 were disappointed.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The consumer expectations index rose 1.7% m/m (-3.3% y/y) and the current economic conditions index rose 0.7% (2.1% y/y), both off from the mid-month pace
Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year rose m/m but was down 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year fell m/m and fell 1.3% y/y.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
&quot;Consumer Sentiment and the Media&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-29.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>92.8</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>89.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>104.7</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
<td>100.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>85.2</td>
<td>83.8</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
<td>82.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041124a.jpg" width="353">
In the five weeks since we have written about the US energy market, prices have eased somewhat. Gasoline, at $2.03/gallon retail in mid-October, has fallen back below $2.00 the past two weeks. Crude oil peaked at $55.23/barrel on October 25, measured by West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, and dipped &quot;as low as&quot; $46.12 on November 16. Yesterday, November 23, it had retraced part of the drop, trading at $48.75.
Back in the spring, we wrote about some energy market fundamentals that have contributed to these extraordinary price levels. Over the past 30 years, most energy price spikes have been supply-driven. Oil-producing countries have controlled production in order to push prices higher in the contemporary demand environment. This episode seems different, we noted back in May, in that it looks to be more demand-oriented.
We illustrate this in the current situation with two graphs. In the first, the trend in demand for energy products over the last 15 years is seen to be positively correlated with the trend in crude oil prices. At 59%, the correlation is not numerically exacting, but it shows that demand and prices are moving fairly well in parallel, not in opposite directions that classical supply/demand economics would suggest.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041124b.jpg" width="353">
The second graph gives a strong reason for the push in demand and in prices. It highlights the link between light truck sales and gasoline prices. Since the mid-1990s, sales of light trucks, mostly SUVs, have grown both absolutely and in relation to conventional car sales. The resulting ratio of truck to auto sales is seen to have a 75% correlation with retail gasoline prices. This truck/car ratio actually has a 99% correlation with gasoline demand. Thus, the American &quot;love affair&quot; with the large vehicle, which was constrained by the initial energy crisis in the mid-1970s, has returned with the next generation of drivers. Energy prices, moving in more open markets in recent years, have responded to the consequent sharp rise in gasoline consumption. We see in the graph that very recently, the share of truck sales has decreased. If this move becomes a trend, some pressure on the general energy market could be relieved.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/daily/@D3/@D306/@D306.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/22/04</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/03</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Retail Gasoline, Regular ($/Gal.)</td>
<td>$1.948</td>
<td>$1.48</td>
<td>28.8%</td>
<td>$1.56</td>
<td>$1.35</td>
<td>$1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate ($/Barrel)</td>
<td>$48.75</td>
<td>$32.55</td>
<td>64.3%</td>
<td>$32.78</td>
<td>$31.23</td>
<td>$19.38</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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In the five weeks since we have written about the US energy market, prices have eased somewhat. Gasoline, at $2.03/gallon retail in mid-October, has fallen back below $2.00 the past two weeks. Crude oil peaked at $55.23/barrel on [...]

SUV Demand Drives Up Energy Prices?

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041123f.jpg" width="353">
Chile reported today that real GDP was up 6.84% over a year ago, compared with a 5.26% rise in the second quarter and a 4.65% rise in the first quarter. Earlier this month, Mexico and Peru reported third quarter growth near 5%. Brazil and Argentina both of which showed good second quarter growth, have yet to report third quarter figures. Brazil is recovering from last year&#39;s slump while Argentina has been coming out of the steep recession that occurred in 2001-2 . The contrast between steady growth path of Chile&#39;s economy and the erratic path of Argentina is shown in the attached chart.
Chile&#39;s growth in the third quarter was broad based, with all sectors showing good growth. Fixed capital spending was up 14% while other domestic spending was up almost 7%. Although exports of good and services were 15% above those of he third quarter of 2003, imports increased even more to 20%. Nevertheless, Chile maintained a positive balance of trade in goods and services of 203.1 billion Chilean Pesos.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Year-to-Year % Change in Real GDP (Not seasonally adjusted)</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 O4</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 04&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Q1 04&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; Q4 03&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 O3</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 03&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;Q1 03&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Chile</td>
<td>6.84</td>
<td>5.26</td>
<td>4.65</td>
<td>3.27</td>
<td>3.12</td>
<td>3.02</td>
<td>3.65</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Argentina</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>7.0</td>
<td>11.3</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>10.2</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>5.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Brazil</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>5.71</td>
<td>2.67</td>
<td>-0.06</td>
<td>-1.48</td>
<td>-1.07</td>
<td>1.86</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mexico</td>
<td>4.42</td>
<td>3.94</td>
<td>3.73</td>
<td>1.99</td>
<td>0.61</td>
<td>0.11</td>
<td>2.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Peru</td>
<td>4.78</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>4.944</td>
<td>2.94</td>
<td>3.04</td>
<td>3.56</td>
<td>5.67</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Chile reported today that real GDP was up 6.84% over a year ago, compared with a 5.26% rise in the second quarter and a 4.65% rise in the first quarter. Earlier this month, Mexico and Peru reported third quarter growth near 5%. Brazil [...]

Chile Reports Third Quarter Growth of Almost 7%

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: November 2004

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