Global| Nov 24 2004U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fell
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation. Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for [...]
Durable goods orders fell 0.4% in October led lower by declines in orders for motor vehicles and capital goods. A 0.5% gain in orders had been the Consensus expectation.
Nondefense capital goods orders dropped 3.3% as orders for computers & electronic products were dragged 5.7% (+3.7% y/y) lower by a 10.3% (+7.0% y/y) decline in orders for computers. Electrical equipment & appliance orders also were down by 3.5% (+2.2% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline.
Transportation equipment orders rose 0.3% but the gain was wholly due to a 35.2% (-17.2% y/y) spurt in defense aircraft. Motor vehicle & parts orders fell 2.8% (-3.2% y/y) and nondefense aircraft orders fell 0.4% (-1.6% y/y) following huge declines during the prior two months. Durable goods orders less transportation fell 0.7% (+9.6% y/y).
Orders for machinery were again quite strong logging a 3.7% m/m gain (+24.7% y/y). fabricated metals orders also rose by 3.1% (+13.1% Y/Y).
Unfilled orders rose 0.6% (8.6% y/y) but the ratio of backlogs to shipments fell.
Inventories of durable goods 0.5% (6.5% y/y). The inventory to shipment ratio was about stable at 1.39, up from the low of 1.35 in March but well down from the highs near 1.7 in 2001.
| NAICS Classification | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | -0.4% | 0.9% | 5.7% | 2.6% | -1.7% | -10.5% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -3.3% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 5.6% | -7.2% | -15.5% |
| Excluding Aircraft | -3.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | -7.1% | -12.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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