Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/170929a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170929a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170929b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170929b.png"></a>

Personal income increased 0.2% during August (2.8% y/y)
following a 0.3% July rise, revised from 0.4%. The latest gain matched
expectations in the Action
Economics Forecast Survey. Wages &amp; salaries remained unchanged (2.7% y/y)
following two months of strong gains. Rental
income grew 0.7% (6.5% y/y) after two months of 0.6% increase. Proprietors'
income advanced 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following declines in three of the prior four
months. Personal
interest income improved 0.2% (2.8% y/y) for a second straight month. That
followed three consecutive months of 0.9% decline. Dividend income also rose
0.2% (1.5% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Personal
transfer receipts improved 0.3% (2.7% y/y) after two months of 0.2% increase. Social Security
payments ticked 0.1% higher (3.3% y/y) and Medicare payments gained an improved
0.3% (2.8%
y/y). Unemployment insurance benefits declined 1.0% (-11.2% y/y).
Disposable income inched up 0.1% (2.7% y/y) following a 0.2%
rise during July. Adjusted for price changes, take-home pay slipped 0.1% (+1.2% y/y)
and reversed July's increase.
Personal consumption expenditures ticked 0.1% higher last month
following an unrevised 0.3% rise. A 0.1% gain had been expected.
Adjusted for price change, personal spending eased 0.1% (+2.5% y/y), the first
decline since January. Real durable goods purchases declined 1.0% (+5.8% y/y),
pulled lower by a 2.7% drop (+2.4% y/y) in motor vehicle buying. Real furniture
purchases eased 0.2% (+6.3% y/y), but real spending on recreational goods &amp;
vehicles rose 0.1% (9.0% y/y). Constant dollar spending on nondurable items fell
0.2% (+1.7% y/y), off for the third straight month. Real purchases of clothing
&amp; footwear declined 0.8% (+1.0% y/y). Real spending on gasoline &amp; oil
declined 0.9% (-0.9% y/y), down for the fourth month in the last five. Real
spending on food &amp; beverages rose 0.3% (1.4% y/y). Real spending on services
improved 0.1% (2.2% y/y) for the third straight month. Real outlays on health
care rose 0.2% (2.8% y/y) but housing &amp; utilities expenditures eased 0.1%
(+0.3% y/y), the sixth monthly decline this year. Real recreation spending held
steady for the second straight month (3.2% y/y).&nbsp;
The personal savings rate held at 3.6%, but remained down from the 6.1% high during all of 2015. Personal saving
declined by roughly one quarter y/y.
The chain-type price index increased 0.2% (1.4% y/y), the
strongest increase since April. Excluding food &amp; energy, prices increased
0.1% (1.3% y/y) for the fourth straight month. Durable goods prices eased 0.1%
(-2.2% y/y), down for the seventh straight month. The price index for
recreational goods &amp; vehicles fell 0.7% (-3.8% y/y). Nondurable goods prices rose
0.5% (1.3% y/y) as gasoline prices jumped 5.8% (9.9% y/y). Services prices improved
0.2% (2.0%
y/y), following a 0.1% uptick.
The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available
in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The
Action Economics figure is in the AS1REPNA database.


<a href="/comment/170929c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170929c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170929d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170929d.png"></a>



<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Personal Income &amp; Outlays
 (%)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Income</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>2.8</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 <td>5.0</td>
 <td>5.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>0.5</td>
 <td>0.4</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 <td>5.1</td>
 <td>5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Disposable Personal Income</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>4.5</td>
 <td>5.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>0.1&nbsp;</td>
 <td>3.9</td>
 <td>4.0</td>
 <td>3.9</td>
 <td>4.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Personal Saving Rate</td>
 <td>3.6</td>
 <td>3.6</td>
 <td>3.7</td>
 <td>4.9 
 (Aug '16)</td>
 <td>4.9</td>
 <td>6.1</td>
 <td>5.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >PCE Chain Price Index</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Disposable Income</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>-0.0</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>4.2</td>
 <td>3.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Real Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.1</td>
 <td>2.5</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>3.6</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;

</body>

</html>

Personal income increased 0.2% during August (2.8% y/y) following a 0.3% July rise, revised from 0.4%. The latest gain matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries remained unchanged (2.7% y/y) [...]

U.S. Personal Income & Consumer Spending Growth Ease

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>U</title>
</head>



 

Economic growth during Q2'17 was revised higher to 3.1% (2.2%
y/y) from 3.0% in the second estimate, and compared to 2.6% in the advance report. It was the quickest rate of increase since
Q1'15. The latest figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
After-tax corporate profits
without IVA &amp; CCA fell 2.0% (+7.4% y/y), revised from -1.4% following a 1.3%
gain during Q1.
Before-tax earnings with IVA &amp; CCA improved a lessened 0.7% (+6.4% y/y)
following a 2.1% Q1 decline. Nonfinancial sector earnings rose a reduced 4.9%
(7.2% y/y). Financial sector earnings
declined a sharper 7.1% (+8.6% y/y) while foreign sector profits fell a larger
2.5% (+6.8% y/y).
Inventory change had a slightly increased 0.1 percentage
point effect on growth after decumulation subtracted 1.5 percentage points in
Q1'17 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points during all of last year. Improvement
in the foreign trade deficit added an unrevised 0.2 percentage points to growth,
as it did during Q1. Exports grew a little-changed 3.5% (3.2% y/y) and imports
rose 1.5% (4.1% y/y).
Growth in domestic final sales was unrevised at 2.7%
(2.4% y/y). Consumer spending growth held at 3.3% (2.7% y/y), the strongest
growth in four quarters. The gain in durable goods buying was lessened to 7.6%
(6.4% y/y),&nbsp; the quarterly strength led by a 13.2% jump (10.7% y/y) in recreational goods &amp; vehicles buying.
Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases rose 9.1% (6.2 % y/y), twice the
growth during Q1 while spending
on motor vehicles increased 0.8% (+4.4% y/y). Each of these figures were revised
lower. Nondurable goods spending rose a little-changed 4.2% (2.0% y/y).
Apparel purchases jumped a lessened 9.9% (2.1 % y/y) while gasoline &amp; energy product
consumption rose a strengthened 8.2% (-0.8% y/y). Services spending gained an
upwardly revised 2.1% (2.3% y/y) and equaled growth during all of last year. Spending on housing &amp; utilities grew
a little-changed 3.4% (1.1% y/y) while health care spending grew 1.3% (+2.0%
y/y), instead of declining slightly as previously indicated. Recreation spending
increased a strengthened 1.4% (3.3% y/y).
Business fixed investment increased a little-changed 6.7%
(4.3% y/y). Growth during the first half of 2017 remained the
strongest in three years. Spending on equipment increased an unchanged 8.8% (3.1% y/y) as
information processing equipment investment rose 10.7% (7.0% y/y), the strongest
growth since Q3'15.
Spending on intellectual property products rose a lessened 3.7% (3.3% y/y).
Spending growth on software was lowered to 24.8% (5.0% y/y).
Investment in the residential sector was weakened as it
posted a 7.3% decline (+1.3% y/y), reversing roughly half of the Q1 gain.
Government spending was little-revised at a 0.2% decline
(-0.0% y/y). Federal government spending rose an unrevised 1.9%
(0.1% y/y) as the gain in defense purchases continued strong at 4.7% (+0.1% y/y).
State &amp; local government spending also was little changed, showing a 1.5%
(-0.2% y/y)
decline.
The unrevised 1.0% gain (1.6% y/y) in the GDP price index was
half the increases of the prior two quarters. The PCE price index rose 0.3%
(1.6% y/y) as the index less food &amp; energy increased 0.9% (1.5% y/y), half
the rise during Q1. The nonresidential fixed investment price index rose 1.9%
(0.9% y/y), about the same as during Q1, but up from the slight decline in 2016.
The residential price index jumped a strengthened 4.6% (4.4% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.

 <colgroup>
 </colgroup>
 <colgroup>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 <col>
 </colgroup>
 
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="415"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q2'17 (Third Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q2'17 (Second Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q2'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q4'16</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">Q2'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">2016</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">2015</th>
 <th scope="col" width="150">2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.06</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.11</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-1.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" width="1615">Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">6.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">6.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">7.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">4.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-7.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-6.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-6.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">11.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">7.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">5.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">10.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="9" width="1615">Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">&nbsp;1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="415">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="150">1.6</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>

&nbsp;U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment
Insurance Increase 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;September
28, 2017
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 272,000 during
the week ended September 23 from 260,000 in the prior week, revised from
259,000. Expectations had been for 268,000 initial claims in the Action
Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average jumped to 277,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to
1.934 million (-6.5% y/y) in the week ended September 16, after rising to 1.979
million the week before. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to
1.950 million.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of
1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely across the
country. For the week ended September 9, the insured rate of unemployment in
Texas spiked to 1.67% from 1.11% in the prior week. The level of initial claims
remained high there at 32,259 (96.8% y/y), though that was down sharply versus
the prior two weeks. The lowest insured rates of unemployment were in South
Dakota (0.22%), Nebraska (0.43%), Indiana (0.48%), Utah (0.50%), North Carolina
(0.51%) and Florida (0.54%). The highest rates were found in Massachusetts
(1.51%), Connecticut (1.89%), Pennsylvania (1.82%), California (1.90%), Alaska
(2.15%) and New Jersey (2.33%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in
Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON.
Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is
from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA
database.
<table width="1769" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" width="700">Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s)</th>
 <th width="152">09/23/17</th>
 <th width="152">09/16/17</th>
 <th width="152">09/09/17</th>
 <th width="152">Y/Y %</th>
 <th width="152">2016</th>
 <th width="152">2015</th>
 <th width="153">2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="700">Initial Claims</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">272</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">260</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">281</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">263</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">278</td>
 <td align="center" width="153">308</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="700">Continuing Claims</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">--</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1,934</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1,979</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">-6.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">2,136</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">2,267</td>
 <td align="center" width="153">2,599</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="700">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">--</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">
 1.5 
 (Sep 2016)
 </td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="152">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="153">2.0</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
&nbsp;




</html>

Economic growth during Q2'17 was revised higher to 3.1% (2.2% y/y) from 3.0% in the second estimate, and compared to 2.6% in the advance report. It was the quickest rate of increase since Q1'15. The latest figure matched expectations [...]

U.S. GDP Growth is Revised Up as Profits Weakened

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/170928j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928j.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928k.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928k.png"></a>
Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 272,000 during
the week ended September 23 from 260,000 in the prior week, revised from
259,000. Expectations had been for 268,000 initial claims in the Action
Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average jumped to 277,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to
1.934 million (-6.5% y/y) in the week ended September 16, after rising to 1.979
million the week before. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to
1.950 million.
The insured unemployment rate remained at the record low of
1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely across the
country. For the week ended September 9, the insured rate of unemployment in
Texas spiked to 1.67% from 1.11% in the prior week. The level of initial claims
remained high there at 32,259 (96.8% y/y), though that was down sharply versus
the prior two weeks. The lowest insured rates of unemployment were in South
Dakota (0.22%), Nebraska (0.43%), Indiana (0.48%), Utah (0.50%), North Carolina
(0.51%) and Florida (0.54%). The highest rates were found in Massachusetts
(1.51%), Connecticut (1.89%), Pennsylvania (1.82%), California (1.90%), Alaska
(2.15%) and New Jersey (2.33%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in
Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON.
Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is
from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA
database.

<a href="/comment/170928l.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928l.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928m.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928m.png"></a>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

<thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" >Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s)</th>
 <th>09/23/17</th>
 <th>09/16/17</th>
 <th>09/09/17</th>
 <th>Y/Y %</th>
 <th>2016</th>
 <th>2015</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Initial Claims</td>
 <td>272</td>
 <td>260</td>
 <td>281</td>
 <td>8.3</td>
 <td>263</td>
 <td>278</td>
 <td>308</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Continuing Claims</td>
 <td>--</td>
 <td>1,934</td>
 <td>1,979</td>
 <td>-6.5</td>
 <td>2,136</td>
 <td>2,267</td>
 <td>2,599</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td>--</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>
 1.5 
 (Sep 2016)
 </td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>1.7</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
&nbsp;

</body>

</html>

Initial unemployment insurance claims rose to 272,000 during the week ended September 23 from 260,000 in the prior week, revised from 259,000. Expectations had been for 268,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/170928h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928i.png"></a>



The EU Commission Index for all of EMU gained more than a full point to stand at 113.0 in September up from 111.9 in August. The reading marks a 92.0 percentile standing for the index a reading that has been thigh historically only about 8 percent of the time.

Among the sector indices, three (industry, consumer confidence and retail) have rankings in their respective 90th queue percentiles, one (Construction) has a ranking in its mid-80th queue percentile and another (services) has a ranking at its 70th queue percentile. On the month all the sector readings are higher except for services which is unchanged month-to-month

On a country by country basis the results are impressive in September. Of the 16 early-reporting EU members only two, the small economies of Luxembourg and Malta showed slippage month-to-month. Moreover most countries that showed large slippages in August have more than made up for that in September. Over two months only Germany, Austria, Belgium, Cyprus and Estonia are net lower. The UK, still and EU member for now, has seen declines in each of the past two months but its overall index still has a standing in its 79th percentile.

Over the past few months in writing up this report I have made the point that while there are some exceptionally strong country-level queue standings the results stratified by unemployment rates show much more tempered enthusiasm. That is true again this month, of course. But now the EU Commission rankings are even more impressive. For these 16 early reporting EMU members, all except two have queue standings in their respective top 20 percentiles. Those two exceptions are Belgium (with a 67 percentile standing) and Greece (whose low standing has been creeping up and now stands at its lower 40th percentile). Greece has made three solid-to-strong month-to-month gains in a row.

German Unemployment is much lower than the level for EMU has a whole.

The PMI gauges and levels make the region look exceptionally strong. But the unemployment situation is skewed much more to moderation with a core of still high unemployment members. On the All-important inflation front, inflation continues to lag behind the EMU target. But Germany just reported inflation for September at a four month high, at a pace of 1.8%. Of course, Germany has been one of the fastest growing economics is EMU and it has the lowest rate of unemployment and would be expected to be showing one of the higher inflation rates. The ECB , of course, targets EMU-Area wide inflation which is still lagging its targets more substantially.



<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928.png" width="645" height="540">
</html>

The EU Commission Index for all of EMU gained more than a full point to stand at 113.0 in September up from 111.9 in August. The reading marks a 92.0 percentile standing for the index a reading that has been thigh historically only [...]

EU Commission Indices Continue Their Strong Run in EMU

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/170928a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928b.png"></a>


Economic growth during Q2'17 was revised higher to 3.1% (2.2%
y/y) from 3.0% in the second estimate, and compared to 2.6% in the advance report. It was the quickest rate of increase since
Q1'15. The latest figure matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
After-tax corporate profits
without IVA &amp; CCA fell 2.0% (+7.4% y/y), revised from -1.4% following a 1.3%
gain during Q1.
Before-tax earnings with IVA &amp; CCA improved a lessened 0.7% (+6.4% y/y)
following a 2.1% Q1 decline. Nonfinancial sector earnings rose a reduced 4.9%
(7.2% y/y). Financial sector earnings
declined a sharper 7.1% (+8.6% y/y) while foreign sector profits fell a larger
2.5% (+6.8% y/y).
Inventory change had a slightly increased 0.1 percentage
point effect on growth after decumulation subtracted 1.5 percentage points in
Q1'17 and subtracted 0.4 percentage points during all of last year. Improvement
in the foreign trade deficit added an unrevised 0.2 percentage points to growth,
as it did during Q1. Exports grew a little-changed 3.5% (3.2% y/y) and imports
rose 1.5% (4.1% y/y).
Growth in domestic final sales was unrevised at 2.7%
(2.4% y/y). Consumer spending growth held at 3.3% (2.7% y/y), the strongest
growth in four quarters. The gain in durable goods buying was lessened to 7.6%
(6.4% y/y),&nbsp; the quarterly strength led by a 13.2% jump (10.7% y/y) in recreational goods &amp; vehicles buying.
Home furnishings &amp; appliance purchases rose 9.1% (6.2 % y/y), twice the
growth during Q1 while spending
on motor vehicles increased 0.8% (+4.4% y/y). Each of these figures were revised
lower. Nondurable goods spending rose a little-changed 4.2% (2.0% y/y).
Apparel purchases jumped a lessened 9.9% (2.1 % y/y) while gasoline &amp; energy product
consumption rose a strengthened 8.2% (-0.8% y/y). Services spending gained an
upwardly revised 2.1% (2.3% y/y) and equaled growth during all of last year. Spending on housing &amp; utilities grew
a little-changed 3.4% (1.1% y/y) while health care spending grew 1.3% (+2.0%
y/y), instead of declining slightly as previously indicated. Recreation spending
increased a strengthened 1.4% (3.3% y/y).
<a href="/comment/170928c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928d.png"></a>

Business fixed investment increased a little-changed 6.7%
(4.3% y/y). Growth during the first half of 2017 remained the
strongest in three years. Spending on equipment increased an unchanged 8.8% (3.1% y/y) as
information processing equipment investment rose 10.7% (7.0% y/y), the strongest
growth since Q3'15.
Spending on intellectual property products rose a lessened 3.7% (3.3% y/y).
Spending growth on software was lowered to 24.8% (5.0% y/y).
Investment in the residential sector was weakened as it
posted a 7.3% decline (+1.3% y/y), reversing roughly half of the Q1 gain.
Government spending was little-revised at a 0.2% decline
(-0.0% y/y). Federal government spending rose an unrevised 1.9%
(0.1% y/y) as the gain in defense purchases continued strong at 4.7% (+0.1% y/y).
State &amp; local government spending also was little changed, showing a 1.5%
(-0.2% y/y)
decline.
The unrevised 1.0% gain (1.6% y/y) in the GDP price index was
half the increases of the prior two quarters. The PCE price index rose 0.3%
(1.6% y/y) as the index less food &amp; energy increased 0.9% (1.5% y/y), half
the rise during Q1. The nonresidential fixed investment price index rose 1.9%
(0.9% y/y), about the same as during Q1, but up from the slight decline in 2016.
The residential price index jumped a strengthened 4.6% (4.4% y/y).
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA
database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail
in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the
recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus
estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.


<a href="/comment/170928F.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170928G.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170928g.png"></a>



	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
 2009 $ (%, AR</a>)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 (Third Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 (Second Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 (Advance Estimate)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q1'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q4'16</th>
 <th scope="col" >Q2'17 Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
 <td>3.1</td>
 <td>3.0</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>2.2</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
 <td>0.12</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 <td>-1.5</td>
 <td>1.1</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>-0.4</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
 <td>2.95</td>
 <td>3.0</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>0.7</td>
 <td>2.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>2.6</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Foreign Trade Effect</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>-1.6</td>
 <td>-0.1</td>
 <td>-0.2</td>
 <td>-0.7</td>
 <td>0.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 <td>2.3</td>
 <td>2.4</td>
 <td>2.1</td>
 <td>3.3</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="10" >Demand Components</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
 <td>3.3</td>
 <td>3.3</td>
 <td>2.8</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>2.7</td>
 <td>3.6</td>
 <td>2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Business Fixed Investment</td>
 <td>6.7</td>
 <td>6.9</td>
 <td>5.2</td>
 <td>7.1</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>4.3</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 <td>2.3</td>
 <td>6.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Residential Investment</td>
 <td>-7.3</td>
 <td>-6.5</td>
 <td>-6.8</td>
 <td>11.1</td>
 <td>7.1</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>5.5</td>
 <td>10.2</td>
 <td>3.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Government Spending</td>
 <td>-0.2&nbsp;</td>
 <td>-0.3</td>
 <td>0.7</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 <td>0.2</td>
 <td>-0.0</td>
 <td>0.8</td>
 <td>1.4</td>
 <td>-0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="10" >Chain-Type Price Index</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; GDP&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
 <td>&nbsp;1.0</td>
 <td>1.0</td>
 <td>1.0</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.1</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Personal Consumption
 Expenditures</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>2.2</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 <td>1.6</td>
 <td>1.2</td>
 <td>0.3</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Less Food/Energy</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.5</td>
 <td>1.8</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>1.6</td>

 </tr>
 </tbody>
 
 

</html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/170927f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170927g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927g.png"></a>

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
pending home sales fell 2.6% (-2.6% y/y) during August to an index level of 106.3
(2001=100). That followed an unrevised 0.8% July decline, falling to the lowest
level since January 2016. It was the sixth monthly shortfall this year and left
sales 6.4% below the peak during April 2016.

Pending home sales declined m/m across each region of the
country. The index for the Northeast fell a sharp 4.4% (-4.1% y/y) to the lowest
level since late-2015. In the South, the index declined 3.5% (-1.7% y/y), off
8.2% from the March peak. The index for the Midwest fell 1.5% (-3.2% y/y) to the
lowest level since January. The index for the West eased 1.0% (-2.4% y/y), but
remained up sharply since early this month.

The pending home sales index measures home sales when the
sales contract is signed, analogous to the new home sales report. In contrast,
existing home sales are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the
pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract
activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two
months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR
database.


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Pending Home Sales (SA,
 2001=100)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >106.3</td>
 <td >109.1</td>
 <td >110.0</td>
 <td >-2.6</td>
 <td >109.8</td>
 <td >108.8</td>
 <td >101.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Northeast</td>
 <td >93.4</td>
 <td >97.7</td>
 <td >98.0</td>
 <td >-4.1</td>
 <td >96.3</td>
 <td >90.7</td>
 <td >83.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Midwest</td>
 <td >101.8</td>
 <td >103.3</td>
 <td >104.0</td>
 <td >-3.2</td>
 <td >107.3</td>
 <td >107.1</td>
 <td >100.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >South</td>
 <td >118.8</td>
 <td >123.1</td>
 <td >125.2</td>
 <td >-1.7</td>
 <td >122.8</td>
 <td >123.0</td>
 <td >115.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >West</td>
 <td >101.3</td>
 <td >102.3</td>
 <td >101.7</td>
 <td >-2.4</td>
 <td >102.5</td>
 <td >102.4</td>
 <td >93.1</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales fell 2.6% (-2.6% y/y) during August to an index level of 106.3 (2001=100). That followed an unrevised 0.8% July decline, falling to the lowest level since [...]

U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/170927a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170927b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927b.png"></a>

New orders for durable goods increased 1.7% (5.1% y/y) during
August following a little-revised 6.8% July decline. A 1.0% increase in orders
had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The rise in orders reflected strength in the transportation
sector where orders rose 4.9% (3.2% y/y) following stability over the prior two
months. Nondefense aircraft &amp; parts surged 44.8% and motor vehicle &amp;
parts orders gained 1.5% (0.8% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector,
durable goods orders improved 0.2% (6.1% y/y) after a 0.8% rise. During the last
three months, orders have risen 1.0%, roughly half the three-month growth rates
earlier this year.

Machinery orders increased 0.3% (6.9% y/y) after stability in
July. Electrical equipment bookings slipped 0.1% (-2.3% y/y) after a 1.7% jump.
Remaining strong were orders for computers &amp; electronic products which
jumped 1.3% (3.8% y/y), rising 3.4% since May. That strength has been powered by
communication equipment orders which rose 4.0% in August and by 5.0% during the
last three months. Orders for computers &amp; related products declined 2.3%
(+1.6% y/y) last month, but also were up 5.5% in the last three months. Primary
metals orders rose 0.3% (13.1% y/y) after a 0.5% rise, and orders for fabricated
metals fell 0.4% (+10.1% y/y) following a 0.9% gain.


Nondefense capital goods orders jumped 4.7% due to the increase in civilian aircraft orders.
Orders excluding aircraft rose 0.9% (3.6% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. 


Shipments of durable goods increased 0.3% (4.5% y/y) last
month after a 0.1% uptick. Shipments outside of the transportation sector rose
0.8% (5.7% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick.&nbsp; Unfilled orders for durable goods
held steady (0.8% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Backlogs outside of the
transportation sector rose 0.3% (3.9% y/y) after a 0.5% rise. Durable goods
inventories gained 0.3% (2.6% y/y) following a 0.4% rise. Outside of
transportation, inventories rose 0.5% (4.4% y/y) following a 0.3% increase.

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON
database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA
database.

Why Persistent Employment Disparities Matter for the
Economy's Heath from Fed Governor Lael Brainard is available <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20170926a.htm">here</a>.

<a href="/comment/170927c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170927d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170927d.png"></a>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Durable Goods NAICS
 Classification</th>
 <th>Aug</th>
 <th>Jul</th>
 <th>Jun</th>
 <th>Aug Y/Y</th>
 <th>2016</th>
 <th>2015</th>
 <th>2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >New Orders (SA, %)</td>
 <td >1.7</td>
 <td >-6.8</td>
 <td >6.4</td>
 <td >5.1</td>
 <td >-1.7</td>
 <td >-4.6</td>
 <td >4.7</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Transportation</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >-19.6</td>
 <td >19.1</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >-3.4</td>
 <td >-6.2</td>
 <td >8.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Total Excluding Transportation</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >-3.6</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
 <td >4.7</td>
 <td >-19.9</td>
 <td >20.8</td>
 <td >8.1</td>
 <td >-7.1</td>
 <td >-11.0</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding Aircraft</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >1.1 </td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >-4.6</td>
 <td >-4.3</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Shipments</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >-0.0</td>
 <td >4.5</td>
 <td >-1.6</td>
 <td >-0.6</td>
 <td >3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Unfilled Orders</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >-0.3</td>
 <td >1.3</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >-1.7</td>
 <td >-2.0</td>
 <td >8.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Inventories</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >4.7</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</html>

New orders for durable goods increased 1.7% (5.1% y/y) during August following a little-revised 6.8% July decline. A 1.0% increase in orders had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise in orders reflected [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Boosted by the Transportation Sector

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/170926j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170926j.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170926k.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170926k.png"></a>
 
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index eased 0.5%
(+15.7% y/y) during September to 119.8 following a 0.3% August rise, revised
from 2.4%. The index was 4.1% below its March peak. The Action Economics
Forecast Survey looked for stability at 120.0. During the past thirty years,
there has been a 70% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and
the y/y change in real PCE.
The slight increase in overall confidence reflected a 0.5%
gain (17.2% y/y) in the expectations index to 102.2. The present situation index
reading fell 1.5% (+14.2% y/y) to 146.1.
The percentage of respondents indicating that business
conditions are &quot;good&quot; slipped to 33.8%, still near the highest level
since January 2001. The percentage saying business conditions are
&quot;bad&quot; roughly matched the recovery low of 13.1%. The 34.4% of
respondents saying that jobs are &quot;plentiful&quot; was just below the recent
16-year high. The percentage claiming jobs are &quot;hard to get&quot; declined
to a 16-year low of 18.2%. These readings of labor market conditions led to a
labor market differential (plentiful minus hard to get) of 14.5 percentage
points. This differential is 97% inversely related to the unemployment rate.
The percentage expecting business conditions to improve over
the next six months improved slightly to 20.2%, but remained well below its
26.9% March peak. The percentage expecting more jobs in six months rose to a
still low 19.5%, well below the 23.8% March peak. The percentage expecting their
incomes to strengthen improved slightly to 20.5%, but remained below the March
high of 22.5%.
The expected rate of inflation in twelve months rose sharply
m/m to 4.9%. The percentage expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve
months fell to 64.1%, down from a March high of 72.2%, while 6.9% expected to
buy a home.
Confidence amongst individuals between ages 35-to-54 also
improved sharply, almost to its March high. Confidence amongst respondents under
age 35 fell sharply to the lowest reading in twelve months. Confidence amongst
individuals over age 55 fell slightly, but remained near the recent high.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB
database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations
are in AS1REPNA

<a href="/comment/170926l.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170926l.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/170926m.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/170926m.png"></a>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>




 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col">Conference Board (SA, 1985=100)</th>
 <th scope="col">Sep</th>
 <th scope="col">Aug</th>
 <th scope="col">Jul</th>
 <th scope="col">Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col">2016</th>
 <th scope="col">2015</th>
 <th scope="col">2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence Index</td>
 <td>119.8</td>
 <td>120.4</td>
 <td>120.0</td>
 <td>15.7</td>
 <td>99.8</td>
 <td>98.0</td>
 <td>86.9</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Present Situation</td>
 <td>146.1</td>
 <td>148.4</td>
 <td>145.4</td>
 <td>14.2</td>
 <td>120.6</td>
 <td>111.7</td>
 <td>87.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Expectations</td>
 <td>102.2</td>
 <td>101.7</td>
 <td>103.0</td>
 <td>17.2</td>
 <td>86.1</td>
 <td>88.8</td>
 <td>86.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence By Age Group</td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 <td></td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Under 35 Years</td>
 <td>120.9</td>
 <td>126.6</td>
 <td>130.0</td>
 <td>3.9</td>
 <td>122.4</td>
 <td>116.0</td>
 <td>106.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Aged 35-54 Years</td>
 <td>128.2</td>
 <td>122.0</td>
 <td>122.2</td>
 <td>17.4</td>
 <td>106.2</td>
 <td>103.9</td>
 <td>92.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Over 55 Years</td>
 <td>112.7</td>
 <td>114.5</td>
 <td>113.3</td>
 <td>20.7</td>
 <td>84.6</td>
 <td>84.1</td>
 <td>73.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index eased 0.5% (+15.7% y/y) during September to 119.8 following a 0.3% August rise, revised from 2.4%. The index was 4.1% below its March peak. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for [...]

U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**Faster-than-Expected Monetary Easing**
Our first potential upside risk for 2026 is that monetary policy across most major advanced economies is loosened further and by more than markets and forecasters currently anticipate. Monetary policy cycles have a history of being underestimated in both length and magnitude—in large part because of the powerful feedback loops between interest rates, inflation, and economic behaviour. On the way up, higher policy rates feed into mortgage costs, debt-service burdens, rents, and the general cost of doing business, reinforcing wage pressures and inflation persistence. But these same channels work in reverse on the way down. As rates fall, debt servicing eases, housing and rental inflation softens, and cost pressures across the economy unwind more rapidly than expected—allowing inflation to decelerate faster and creating scope for further easing. A risk, therefore, is that if disinflation becomes self-reinforcing, central banks find themselves cutting rates more aggressively than currently priced, not because of economic distress, but because restrictive policy proves increasingly unnecessary.

251218Z1.jpg

**Energy Supply Dynamics Prove More Supportive**
The second chart reinforces the message from the first: easing monetary policy may be accompanied—and amplified—by a more benign energy backdrop. Recent projections from the EIA point to a renewed build-up in OECD crude oil and liquids inventories over the year ahead, a dynamic that has historically been associated with downward pressure on oil prices. If inventories continue to rise as supply growth outpaces demand, spot prices for crude could undershoot current forecasts, keeping energy inflation subdued. That, in turn, would reinforce disinflationary forces already in play—lowering headline CPI, easing cost pressures for firms and households, and giving central banks greater confidence to loosen policy further. In that sense, softer oil prices would not just be a standalone positive shock, but part of a reinforcing feedback loop alongside rate cuts, supporting real incomes, financial conditions, and global growth into 2026.


251218Z2.jpg

**AI-Driven Productivity Gains Materialise More Quickly** 
The third chart shows a clear pickup in US nonfinancial productivity growth, reviving the debate around whether AI-driven efficiency gains may arrive sooner than many forecasters expect. While the longer-term productivity potential of AI remains uncertain and uneven across sectors, there are reasons to think that at least some near-term gains could prove more tangible than currently assumed. Rather than transformative breakthroughs, early benefits are likely to come from incremental improvements—automation of routine processes, better scheduling and logistics, more efficient use of capital and labour, and modest reductions in overhead costs—areas where US firms are already well positioned to implement new technologies quickly. If these gains accumulate and diffuse more broadly, the implications would still be meaningful. Even a modest, sustained uplift in productivity would help contain unit labour costs, support real income growth, and raise the economy’s speed limit without generating renewed inflation pressure. In that scenario, productivity would not need to “revolutionise” the economy to matter: incremental efficiency gains could nonetheless provide a supportive backdrop for growth, earnings, and policy easing into 2026—representing a genuine upside risk to the outlook.


251218Z3.jpg

**The US Economy Proves Resilient Again**
The next chart highlights a further upside risk to the 2026 outlook: the possibility that the US economy once again outperforms its peers. Unlike the typical pre-recession backdrop, there is little evidence of meaningful financial stress in the US private sector. After a prolonged period of balance-sheet repair, private-sector debt ratios have been trending lower in recent years, while the sector as a whole is running a healthy financial surplus. This stands in stark contrast to previous late-cycle episodes, which were characterised by rising leverage, widening deficits, and growing dependence on credit expansion. The absence of private-sector excesses reduces the economy’s vulnerability to higher rates and external shocks, and helps explain why growth has remained more durable than expected. If households and firms continue to prioritise balance-sheet strength rather than forced deleveraging, the usual mechanisms that tip the economy into recession may fail to materialise. In that environment, even modest easing in financial conditions could translate into renewed spending and investment, allowing the US to sustain above-trend growth into 2026—representing another upside risk to the global outlook.


251218Z4.jpg

**India’s Growth Engine Accelerates Further** 
Chart 5 points to another potential upside risk for 2026 emanating from India’s economy. After a period of relative pessimism earlier in the year, consensus growth forecasts for 2026 have been revised modestly higher, even as inflation projections have continued to drift lower. This combination—firmer growth expectations alongside easing inflation pressures—creates scope for a more supportive policy backdrop than markets currently assume. With real interest rates no longer rising and financial conditions stabilising, India’s investment cycle, already underpinned by public infrastructure spending and improving corporate balance sheets, could prove more durable than forecast. If these trends persist, India may deliver growth that is both stronger and more internally driven than expected, providing a meaningful demand impulse to the broader global economy. Given India’s increasing weight in global growth, even small upside surprises would have outsized effects on trade, commodity demand, and regional activity—reinforcing the case that the global outlook for 2026 may be skewed to the upside.


251218Z5.jpg

**The Global South Becomes a More Independent Source of Demand** 
The final chart points to a broader upside risk for the global economy in 2026: that economies across the so-called Global South generate more durable momentum than currently assumed. With a few notable exceptions—such as China and Thailand—many emerging economies continue to benefit from stronger growth in their working-age populations and/or faster real GDP per capita growth than their advanced-economy counterparts. These demographic and income dynamics are helping to underpin domestic consumption, support labour-force expansion, and attract capital inflows, as reflected in the pattern of net FDI across countries. In contrast, much of the advanced world faces binding demographic constraints and lower steady-state growth rates, limiting the scope for demand to re-accelerate organically. If growth in the Global South proves more resilient and internally driven—rather than overly dependent on exports to advanced economies—it could provide a more stable and geographically diversified source of global demand. In that scenario, global growth in 2026 would be less reliant on a narrow set of advanced economies, reinforcing the case that risks to the outlook may be skewed to the upside.


251218Z6.jpg

_This marks our final Charts of the Week publication for 2025 The next edition will be released on Thursday 8 January._

Last week’s Charts of the Week focused on the darker tail risks hanging over the 2026 outlook: the possibility of monetary policy mis-calibration, that geopolitics and trade fragmentation further disrupt supply chains, and that elevated debt levels—particularly in the public sector—reassert themselves as a drag on growth. This week’s charts take a deliberately different tack. Taken together, they highlight a set of upside risks that are possibly underappreciated in current forecasts. For example, policy easing across advanced economies may extend further than expected as disinflation feeds on itself (chart 1); oil prices could surprise on the downside as inventories rebuild (chart 2); US productivity may deliver incremental but meaningful gains sooner than assumed (chart 3); the US economy itself could continue to benefit from an absence of private-sector financial stress (chart 4); India’s growth momentum might firm again as inflation pressures recede (chart 5); and, more broadly, parts of the Global South appear increasingly capable of generating their own demand impulse, supported by favourable demographics and income growth (chart 6). None of these forces is guaranteed, and each carries its own caveats—but together they suggest that, having spent much of the past year fixated on downside risks, the risks to global growth in 2026 may be more evenly balanced than is widely assumed.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/6tL5l7g70DuLWxKOokuRit?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: The Upside Risks

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

251218A4.jpg

251218B4.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped 13,000 to 224,000 during the week of December 13, from 237,000 during the week of December 6, revised from 236,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 217,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week, which was revised to 217,000 from 216,750.

Federal government employees initially filed 1091 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended December 6, after filing 643 claims in the week ended November 29.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 67,000 to 1,897,000 in the week ending December 6, following a sharp decline of 107,000 to 1,830,000 in the prior week, revised from 1,838,000. The four-week moving average was 1,902,000 in the week ending December 6, a decrease of 14,000 from 1,916,00 in the week ended November 29, revised from 1,918,000. The insured unemployment rate stood at 1.2% in the week of December 6, unchanged from the prior week.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits rose to 14,077 (NSA) in the week of November 29 from 12,732 (NSA) in the week ended November 22.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending November 29, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.48%), New Jersey (2.42%), California (2.26%), Minnesota (2.16%), and Massachusetts (2.10%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.34%), South Dakota (0.40%), North Carolina (0.41%), Louisiana (0.44%), Alabama (0.46%), Virginia (0.47%), and Tennessee (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.81%), Illinois and Pennsylvania (both 1.67%), and Texas (1.22%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.



251218C4.jpg

251218D4.jpg

- Initial claims dropped from the prior week.
- Continuing claims rebounded from the prior week sharp decline.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged.


U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Eased in Latest Week

251217A2.jpg

251217B2.jpg

Mortgage applications dropped 3.8% w/w (+40.9% y/y) in the week of December 12 after a rise of 4.8% w/w (45.4% y/y) in the week of December 5, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 2.8% w/w (+12.3% y/y) in the latest week after declining 2.4% w/w (+17.2% y/y) in the week of December 5. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 3.6% w/w (+86.0% y/y) in the week of December 12, following the 14.3% (87.8% y/y) jump in the week ended December 5.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 6bps to 6.56% in the week ending December 12, from 6.50% in the week ending December 5. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 4bps to 5.91% in the latest week from 5.87% in the December 5 week. The rate on 30-year jumbo edged down 2bps to 6.55% in the December 12 week from 6.57% in the prior week. The rate on a 5-year ARM eased 4bps to 5.76% in the latest week from 5.80% in the December 5 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 59.0% of total applications in the December12 week from 58.2% in the week ending December 5. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity rose to 7.2% in the latest week from 7.0% in the December 5 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan rose 1.5% (6.4% y/y) to $400,000 in the December 12 week, following a decline of 0.7% (+7.1% y/y) to $394,200 in the December 5 week. The average size of a purchase loan edged up 0.6% (-0.3% y/y) to $424,200 in the latest week, after dropping 0.4% (+1.3% y/y) to $421,700 in the December 5 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage rose 2.4% (19.8% y/y) to $383,300 in the week ending December 12 after rising 0.2% (19.4% y/y) to $374,500 in the December 5 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications fell 2.8% w/w; refinancing loan applications fell 3.6% w/w.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed loans rose to 6.56%.
- Average loan size rose moderately.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Retreated in the Week of December 12

251217E.jpg

U.K. inflation has moderated in November, posting a 0.1% drop on the HICP, a 0.1% gain in the CPI-H headline measure as well as a 0.1% gain in the CPI-H core (excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco). The sequential trend in core inflation points lower and is eroding but continues to run over the 2% mark set as a target by the Bank of England for overall inflation (over 12 months). The headline is excessive as well but also eroding.

Sequentially the CPI-H gains 3.5% over 12 months, slows to a 2.8% annual rate over six months and then dips to 1.4% annual rate over three months. The CPI-H core rises by 3.6% over 12 months, ticks down to a 3.0% pace over six months, and then runs at a 2.4% annualized pace over three months.

The trend for the CPI core, and for the headline, both are quite good and would be completely consistent with the Bank of England cutting rates, a move that is widely expected – although the 12-month pace for each is excessive.

Not only is inflation showing signs of falling into the Bank of England's target zone, but the economy has been weak although the unemployment rate currently is only hovering around the 4% mark. Still, recent economic data have been weak, and the recent monthly GDP report posted a negative reading, further unsettling the outlook. The October monthly GDP change was estimated at -0.1% while the year-over-year increase in GDP in October produced a gain of just 1.1%. These metrics have put the U.K. economy on recession watch at a time when there has been a sharp revision in the budget process that will be much more constrictive. A sharp pullback in the manufacturing of motor vehicles is blamed for the sudden weakness in GDP in October. The three-month drop in GDP is the first such drop since December 2023.

Meanwhile, the headline and the core inflation statistics are progressing. The table calculates breadth statistics on how widespread inflation acceleration has been and we see that it has not been prevalent (over 50%) in September or November, although breadth did touch the 58% mark in October. Sequentially, inflation acceleration has been tamed: over 12 months (when it is neutral), six months, and three months. Over 12 months, inflation accelerated in only 50% of the categories. And inflation according to the CPI headline and in the core over six months continues to show deceleration to accompany narrowing breadth - only 8.3%. That reading indicates that there was more inflation deceleration than acceleration by a wide margin over six months. At 50%, inflation acceleration and deceleration forces are balanced. Readings below 50% indicate relatively more deceleration, and that is now the more common condition. Inflation acceleration is extremely rare across categories over six months and three months.

251217.jpg

On balance, inflation by the headline and by the core measures is well disciplined and falling into line although still excessive over 12 months. The breadth statistics reinforce the view that inflation is broadly coming to heel at the same time the real economy data are showing a cooling in the economy- and perhaps an excessive slowing at that. The new budget should put the economy under additional downward pressure, further restraining inflation and causing growth to moderate. In this situation, a rate cut from the Bank of England is the odds-on bet. Perhaps the only question now is how large a cut? How much will the Bank think that circumstance have changed and that key trends have been altered in a significant way? Will policy react mostly to lower trend tempered by an excessive 12-month pace, or will it be willing to look farther forward and weight heavily the deteriorating economic trend as well?

United Kingdom

U.K. Inflation Moderates Open Door for BOE Rate Cut

Sandy Batten

251216A4.jpg

251216B4.jpg

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released establishment survey data for both October and November today. With the government shutdown during the month of October, there was no household survey for that month. Today’s release contained only November data for households. Nonfarm payrolls (from the establishment survey) increased 64,000 in November but fell 105,000 in October. The 119,000 increase previously reported for September was revised down to a 108,000 rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected an 80,000 decrease in October and a 35,000 increase in November. The three-month average change in payrolls rebounded to 22,000 in November from -8,000 in October. However, this figure has trended down since early this year, pointing to a modest softening of labor-market conditions. 

This softening was reinforced by a 0.2%-point jump in the unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September. (As already noted, there was no household survey in October.) The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally attached workers, surged to 8.7% in November from 8.0% in September. For both series, these were the highest readings since September 2021.

Average hourly earnings (AHE), a key variable for the Federal Reserve, showed a further slowing in wage growth. AHE edged up 0.1% m/m in November after a 0.4% monthly jump in October. Importantly, the y/y rate slowed to 3.5%, the slowest since May 2021, from 3.7% in both September and October. The annual pace of the rise in service-producing wages slowed to 3.4% in November from 3.7% in both September and October while the annual growth of goods-producing wages was unchanged at 4.0%. Depending on your estimate of productivity growth, the current pace of total AHE growth is likely still a little too fast to be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. But clearly, it is moving in the desired direction.

In the **establishment survey**, much of the recent softening reflects declines in federal government employment. Federal government employment fell again in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Note however that federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

Private-sector employment rose 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October following an upwardly revised 104,000 increase in September (previously 97,000). Goods sector employment rebounded in November, rising 19,000 after a 9,000 fall in October. Construction jobs increased 28,000 in November, their largest monthly gain in more than a year, but slipped 1,000 in October. Manufacturing jobs continued to decline, falling 5,000 in November and 9,000 in October. They have now declined for seven consecutive months, not the result that the Trump Administration new tariff policy had intended.

Private-sector service-producing jobs gained 50,000 in November on top of a 61,000 increase in October and an 87,000 rise in September. A 46,000 increase in healthcare jobs on top of a 44,000 increase in October and an 18,000 gain in social assistance jobs in November after a 21,000 increase in October led the overall increases in the past two months. Other major sectors mostly experienced either job declines or minimal gains in October and November.

251216C4.jpg

251216D4.jpg

The length of the workweek increased to 34.3 hours in November from 34.2 hours in August, September and October. The goods-producing workweek edged up to 39.8 hours in November from 39.6 hours in October while the private service-producing workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours in November.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021 and up from a recent low of 3.4% in April 2023, from 4.4% in September (again, no data for October). The labor force increased 323,000 in November from September after a 470,000 monthly gain in September. The gain in employment slowed in November with the number of employed rising only 96,000 from September following a 251,000 monthly increase in September. The number of unemployed increased 228,000 in November from September following a 219,000 monthly increase in September. The labor force participation rate rose to 62.5% in November, its highest since April, from 62.4% in September. On a slightly brighter note, the average duration of unemployment slipped to 23.0 weeks in November from 24.1 weeks in September while the median duration of unemployment fell to 9.5 weeks, the lowest since May, from 10.0 weeks in September.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 59.6% in November from 59.7% in September. It remained below the recent peak reading of 61.1% in February 2020 just prior to the pandemic. For men, the rate slipped to 64.6% in November from 64.8% in September and 65.0% in August, and for women, the rate was unchanged at 54.8% in November.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

251216X4.jpg

251216F4.jpg

- Total payrolls rose 64k in November but fell 105k in October
- The October decline was more than accounted for by a 157k decline in government employment
- The unemployment rate jumped to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September.
- There were no household survey data collected for October.

Economy in Brief: 2017

Jump to:

U.S. Personal Income & Consumer Spending Growth Ease

U.S. GDP Growth is Revised Up as Profits Weakened

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Increase

EU Commission Indices Continue Their Strong Run in EMU

U.S. GDP Growth is Revised Up as Profits Weakened

U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Sharply

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Are Boosted by the Transportation Sector

U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates