Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130e.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
The new orders index reversed nearly all of the October gain with a 9.4 point drop. Conversely, the employment index added 6.7 points to a slight October uptick and rose to the highest level since 1988. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid rose to 89.8. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the &quot;core&quot; intermediate goods PPI.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov&nbsp;&#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>65.2</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>54.7</td>
<td>52.7</td>
<td>41.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>79.4</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>56.2</td>
<td>42.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>84.1</td>
<td>68.1</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>56.9</td>
<td>50.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0. During the last ten years there has been a 73% [...]

Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell, Employment Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130d.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of consumer expectations fell sharply for the third month in the last four to 87.4 (-12.7% y/y). The present situation index rose modestly to 95.2 (+17.5% y/y) following three months of decline.
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.1% of survey participants versus 27.9% in October and by 31.8% during all of last year. Fewer jobs in six months were expected by 19.7% of participants, the highest percentage in a year.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>90.5</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>106.6</td>
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The Conference Boards Index of Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.0. During the last twenty [...]

Consumer Confidence Down Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales during the pivotal Thanksgiving week slid 1.5% from the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline left sales so far in November just 0.4% ahead of October.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged after two weeks of 0.5% decline. The monthly average is up 0.1% from October which rose 0.4% from September.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/27/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>432.9</td>
<td>439.6</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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</tbody>
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Chain store sales during the pivotal Thanksgiving week slid 1.5% from the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The decline left sales so far in November just 0.4% ahead of October. The [...]

Chain Store Sales Very Disappointing During Thanksgiving Week

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130a.jpg" width="353">
US real GDP advanced 3.9% (AR) last quarter, up slightly from the advance report of growth at a 3.7% rate. The Consensus expectation had been for no change at 3.7%.
Corporate profits w/ inventory (IVA) and capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) fell 2.4% (+8.4% y/y), the first quarterly decline since 1Q03. Part of this decline in &quot;operating&quot; profits occurred as the CCAdj for depreciation rose a sharp 6.3%, the largest quarterly advance in three years. However that was offset by a lessened (IVA).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130b.jpg" width="353">
&quot;Book&quot; profits before tax fell 2.4% (+9.5% y/y) due to lower profits earned in the financial sector, off 13.4% q/q and 10.5% y/y. Nonfinancial corporate sector profits rose 1.6% (18.9% y/y), though the quarterly rate of gain was the weakest since 1Q03 and reflected no expansion in profits per unit of output (margins).
Revisions to growth in domestic final demand were modestly positive. Personal consumption grew at a 5.1% (3.6% y/y) rate versus the initial report of 4.4% growth due to upward revisions in most categories. Business investment growth also was revised up to a 13.0% rate (10.1% y/y) with spending on equipment &amp; software growth raised to 17.2% (12.8% y/y). Growth in information processing equipment &amp; software was nearly doubled to 7.6% (13.6% y/y).
Residential investment grew at a 1.8% rate (8.1% y/y) but its contribution to real GDP growth was halved to 0.1 percentage points versus 0.9 points in 2Q04).
Slower accumulation of inventories subtracted nearly twice the 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth estimated in the advance report, but that was mostly offset by a lessened drag from foreign trade deterioration. Export growth was revised up to 6.4% (9.5% y/y) and import growth was eased to 6.0% (11.5% y/y).
Expanded detail indicated that GDP less motor vehicles rose 3.7% (AR, 4.1% y/y) and that GDP less computers rose 3.8% (3.9% y/y), both estimates up a hair from the advance report.
Price inflation was unrevised at 1.3%, as expected.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/spf/survq404.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Preliminary</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US real GDP advanced 3.9% (AR) last quarter, up slightly from the advance report of growth at a 3.7% rate. The Consensus expectation had been for no change at 3.7%. Corporate profits w/ inventory (IVA) and capital consumption [...]

US 3Q GDP Revised Up, Corporate Profits Fell

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130a.jpg" width="353">
US real GDP advanced 3.9% (AR) last quarter, up slightly from the advance report of growth at a 3.7% rate. The Consensus expectation had been for no change at 3.7%.
Corporate profits w/ inventory (IVA) and capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) fell 2.4% (+8.4% y/y), the first quarterly decline since 1Q03. Part of this decline in &quot;operating&quot; profits occurred as the CCAdj for depreciation rose a sharp 6.3%, the largest quarterly advance in three years. However that was offset by a lessened (IVA).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130b.jpg" width="353">
&quot;Book&quot; profits before tax fell 2.4% (+9.5% y/y) due to lower profits earned in the financial sector, off 13.4% q/q and 10.5% y/y. Nonfinancial corporate sector profits rose 1.6% (18.9% y/y), though the quarterly rate of gain was the weakest since 1Q03 and reflected no expansion in profits per unit of output (margins).
Revisions to growth in domestic final demand were modestly positive. Personal consumption grew at a 5.1% (3.6% y/y) rate versus the initial report of 4.4% growth due to upward revisions in most categories. Business investment growth also was revised up to a 13.0% rate (10.1% y/y) with spending on equipment &amp; software growth raised to 17.2% (12.8% y/y). Growth in information processing equipment &amp; software was nearly doubled to 7.6% (13.6% y/y).
Residential investment grew at a 1.8% rate (8.1% y/y) but its contribution to real GDP growth was halved to 0.1 percentage points versus 0.9 points in 2Q04).
Slower accumulation of inventories subtracted nearly twice the 0.5 percentage points from GDP growth estimated in the advance report, but that was mostly offset by a lessened drag from foreign trade deterioration. Export growth was revised up to 6.4% (9.5% y/y) and import growth was eased to 6.0% (11.5% y/y).
Expanded detail indicated that GDP less motor vehicles rose 3.7% (AR, 4.1% y/y) and that GDP less computers rose 3.8% (3.9% y/y), both estimates up a hair from the advance report.
Price inflation was unrevised at 1.3%, as expected.
The Survey of Professional Forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/files/spf/survq404.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Preliminary</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;04 (Advance)</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Very Disappointing During Thanksgiving Week 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 30, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales during the pivotal Thanksgiving week slid 1.5% from the prior week, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The decline left sales so far in November just 0.4% ahead of October.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC was unchanged after two weeks of 0.5% decline. The monthly average is up 0.1% from October which rose 0.4% from September.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/27/04</th>
<th scope="col">11/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>432.9</td>
<td>439.6</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Down Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 30, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130d.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 2.6% in November to the lowest level (90.5) since March. Consensus expectations had been for a reading of 96.0.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of consumer expectations fell sharply for the third month in the last four to 87.4 (-12.7% y/y). The present situation index rose modestly to 95.2 (+17.5% y/y) following three months of decline.
Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 28.1% of survey participants versus 27.9% in October and by 31.8% during all of last year. Fewer jobs in six months were expected by 19.7% of participants, the highest percentage in a year.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>90.5</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>106.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Fell, Employment Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> November 30, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041130e.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell 3.3 points in November to 65.2 and reversed half of the October move upward. Consensus expectations had been for a decline to 62.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 73% correlation between the level of the Chicago Business Barometer and the three month change in factory sector industrial output. That correlation has risen to 86% during the last five years.
The new orders index reversed nearly all of the October gain with a 9.4 point drop. Conversely, the employment index added 6.7 points to a slight October uptick and rose to the highest level since 1988. During the last twenty years there has been an 80% correlation between the level of this employment index and the three month change in factory sector employment.
The index of prices paid rose to 89.8. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the Chicago price index and the three month change in the &quot;core&quot; intermediate goods PPI.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov&nbsp;&#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>65.2</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>62.9</td>
<td>54.7</td>
<td>52.7</td>
<td>41.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>79.4</td>
<td>68.5</td>
<td>58.0</td>
<td>56.2</td>
<td>42.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>84.1</td>
<td>68.1</td>
<td>55.8</td>
<td>56.9</td>
<td>50.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129h.jpg" width="353">
Gross domestic product in Denmark rose a negligible 0.04% in the third quarter. Private consumption rose almost 1% but public consumption fell by 0.6%. Gross fixed capital spending rose 3.6% and a swing in inventory change from a liquidation of 1,051 million 1995 Krone to an accumulation of 3,003 million also added a good boost to output. But the foreign trade sector offset almost all the gains on the domestic sector. The impact of net exports in the total gross national product is illustrated in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129g.jpg" width="353">
Although Denmark is not in the Euro zone, its currency, the krone has moved with the euro against the dollar as can be seen in the second chart. Part of the decline of 1,7% in the exports of goods and services from the second to the third quarter was due to the rising krone. At the same time, the rising krone stimulated imports of goods and service, which rose by 3.4%. However, rising prices of oil also contributed to the rise in imports. The combination of lower exports and higher imports led to a decline of 7,303 million 1995 krone in the balance of trade in goods and services from 10,224 million 1995 Krone in the second quarter to 2,921 million in the third quarter. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Millions of 1995 Krone</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 O4</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 04</th>
<th scope="col">Q4 03</th>
<th scope="col">Q3/Q2 %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2003&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gross domestic product</td>
<td>303,195</td>
<td>303,080</td>
<td>301,959</td>
<td>298,778</td>
<td>0.04</td>
<td>1,188,639</td>
<td>1,186,639</td>
<td>1,170,719</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Private consumption</td>
<td>144,509</td>
<td>143,088</td>
<td>142,118</td>
<td>141,688</td>
<td>0.99.</td>
<td>556,054</td>
<td>551,375</td>
<td>547,961</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Public consumption</td>
<td>75,864</td>
<td>76,327</td>
<td>75,186</td>
<td>76,351</td>
<td>-0.61</td>
<td>305,077</td>
<td>301,922</td>
<td>295,601</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Gross fixed capital spending</td>
<td>76,564</td>
<td>73,908</td>
<td>72,464</td>
<td>75,025</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>285,800</td>
<td>285,554</td>
<td>295,101</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory change</td>
<td>3,003</td>
<td>-1,051</td>
<td>1,888</td>
<td>-2,433</td>
<td>4,054*</td>
<td>-4,225</td>
<td>868</td>
<td>1,162</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports of goods and services</td>
<td>147,319</td>
<td>149,838</td>
<td>142,218</td>
<td>140,475</td>
<td>-1.68</td>
<td>563,819</td>
<td>563,885</td>
<td>538,315</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports of goods and services</td>
<td>144,398</td>
<td>139,614</td>
<td>131,977</td>
<td>131,560</td>
<td>3.43</td>
<td>517,886</td>
<td>520,977</td>
<td>485.662</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Net exports of goods and services</td>
<td>2,921</td>
<td>10,224</td>
<td>10,241</td>
<td>8.915</td>
<td>-7,303*</td>
<td>45,933</td>
<td>42,908</td>
<td>52,653</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Gross domestic product in Denmark rose a negligible 0.04% in the third quarter. Private consumption rose almost 1% but public consumption fell by 0.6%. Gross fixed capital spending rose 3.6% and a swing in inventory change from a [...]

Denmark's GDP Third Quarter Growth Slowed by Decline in the Foreign Trade Balance

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129j.jpg" width="353">
Though the November reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 92.8, that was lower than the mid-month reading of 95.5 and indicated that Sentiment faded as the month progressed. Consensus expectations for a reading of 96.0 were disappointed.
During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
The consumer expectations index rose 1.7% m/m (-3.3% y/y) and the current economic conditions index rose 0.7% (2.1% y/y), both off from the mid-month pace
Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year rose m/m but was down 2.0% y/y. Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year fell m/m and fell 1.3% y/y.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
&quot;Consumer Sentiment and the Media&quot; from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2004/el2004-29.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>92.8</td>
<td>91.7</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>89.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>104.7</td>
<td>104.0</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
<td>100.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>85.2</td>
<td>83.8</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
<td>82.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Though the November reading of Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan rose to 92.8, that was lower than the mid-month reading of 95.5 and indicated that Sentiment faded as the month progressed. Consensus expectations for a [...]

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Faded Late Month

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041129f.jpg" width="353">
The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003.
The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than recovered the prior month&#39;s plunge and jumped to 71%, the highest level since May.
During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the year-to-year change in non-farm payrolls.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Oct &#39;03</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>37</td>
<td>36</td>
<td>36</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The National Index of Help-Wanted Advertising published by the Conference Board rose slightly to 37 in October but has been moving sideways since 2Q 2003. The proportion of labor markets with rising want-ad volume, however, more than [...]

Help-Wanted Advertising Up Slightly

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

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Andrew Cates

**Global shipping costs**
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has surged to multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp tightening in global oil shipping markets. The primary driver is the escalation in Middle East tensions, particularly the effective disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for roughly a fifth of global oil trade. Heightened security risks, including missile and drone attacks on vessels and port infrastructure, have forced rerouting, increased insurance premia and reduced effective tanker supply. At the same time, longer voyage distances—especially for Gulf exports diverted around the Cape—are tying up capacity and amplifying rate pressures. The result is a classic squeeze: constrained supply of available ships meeting elevated demand for transport, pushing freight costs sharply higher.

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**Supply Chain Bottlenecks**
Flash PMI data point to a renewed build-up of supply chain pressures across the major economies. Supplier delivery times—where readings below 50 indicate slower deliveries—have deteriorated in both the US and UK, with the latter showing a particularly sharp decline. The euro area, while more stable, is also drifting in the same direction. This broad-based softening suggests that the disruptions visible in energy and shipping markets are now feeding into the real economy. Longer delivery times are typically an early indicator of tightening supply conditions, rising input costs and, ultimately, renewed pipeline inflation pressures. While not yet at the extremes seen during the pandemic, the direction of travel is clear: supply chains are becoming less efficient just as geopolitical risks intensify.

260401Z2.jpg

**Policy Uncertainty Versus Market Volatility**
A striking divergence is emerging between policy uncertainty and financial market volatility. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has risen sharply, reflecting the intensifying geopolitical backdrop, trade disruptions and an increasingly complex policy environment. By contrast, the VIX—while off its lows—remains relatively contained by historical standards. This gap suggests that financial markets may be underpricing the scale and persistence of current risks. Either uncertainty begins to recede, or market volatility has further to rise. For now, the message is clear: policymakers are operating in a far more uncertain world than markets appear to be discounting.

260401Z3.jpg

**Oil Prices and Monetary Policy** 
The sharp rise in oil prices is once again feeding directly into short-term interest rate expectations, with a strong positive correlation evident between WTI and US 2-year Treasury yields. As energy prices surge, markets are reassessing the near-term inflation outlook and the likely policy response, pushing yields higher. This reflects a familiar dynamic: energy shocks tighten financial conditions not just directly, but via expectations of more restrictive monetary policy. That said, there are important caveats. Medium-term market-based inflation expectations remain relatively well contained, suggesting credibility in central banks’ ability to anchor inflation over time. Moreover, recent communication from Fed Chair Powell indicates that the Federal Reserve is in no immediate hurry to raise rates, pointing instead to a more cautious, data-dependent approach in the face of heightened uncertainty.

260401Z4.jpg

**Loose Labour Markets**
Wage growth across the US, UK and euro area continues to moderate, pointing to a gradual loosening in labour market conditions. The sharp post-pandemic surge in wage pressures—particularly pronounced in the US—has clearly faded, with all three regions now on a downward trajectory. This matters in the current context: while the oil shock is pushing headline inflation higher and complicating the near-term outlook, easing wage dynamics reduce the risk of persistent second-round effects. In turn, this lessens the urgency for central banks to respond aggressively with tighter policy. The result is a more nuanced policy backdrop—one where energy-driven inflation pressures are rising, but underlying domestic cost pressures are moving in the opposite direction.

260401Z5.jpg

**Headline Inflation in Advanced Economies**
Despite the recent energy shock, broader inflation dynamics across advanced economies remain relatively well behaved. The euro area HICP flash estimate rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, driven largely by higher energy prices. However, core inflation edged down to 2.3% from 2.4%, suggesting that pass-through into underlying price pressures remains limited for now. More generally, inflation across many advanced economies continues to hover close to central bank targets—a marked contrast to the peaks seen in 2022. While higher oil prices will almost certainly continue to lift headline inflation in the near term, and the risk is clearly tilted toward further upside, the broader picture for now remains one of relatively contained underlying pressures. This suggests the current shock is more likely to complicate the disinflation process—potentially slowing or interrupting it—rather than decisively reversing it, though the balance of risks has become less favourable.

260401Z6.jpg

Amid tentative signs of de-escalation from the US administration over the past 48 hours—including suggestions that the conflict with Iran could conclude relatively quickly—financial markets have begun to retrace some of last week’s sharp repricing of Middle East risk. Oil prices have come off their highs, while equities and bonds have rallied as risk premia ease. That said, the earlier phase of the week saw a decisive adjustment: oil surged, front-end yields moved higher, and uncertainty rose as investors grappled with the implications of disrupted energy flows. Even now, the overall adjustment has been uneven—volatility has picked up, but not to levels typically associated with sustained geopolitical stress—raising questions about how fully markets are internalising both the risks and the rapidly shifting outlook. Our charts this week capture these cross-currents. Tanker rates have spiked as shipping routes are disrupted and capacity tightens (chart 1), while PMI delivery times point to early signs of supply chain strain feeding into the real economy (chart 2). At the same time, the divergence between elevated policy uncertainty and relatively contained market volatility suggests there could have been a degree of complacency (chart 3). The rise in oil prices is already feeding into higher short-term yields, though this is being tempered by cooling labour markets, anchored inflation expectations and more cautious central bank signalling (charts 4 and 5). Meanwhile, euro area flash CPI has picked up, but core inflation remains relatively benign, suggesting underlying price pressures are still contained for now (chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Strait Stress

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260402A5.jpg

260402B5.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined by 9,000 to 202,000 in the week ending March 28, from 211,000 in the week ending March 21, revised from 210,000. The four-week average declined 3,000 to 207,750 in the week ending March 28, from 210,750 the March 21 week, revised from 210,500. The Forecast Survey looked for 212,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million in the week ending March 21, from 1.816 million in the week ending March 14. The four-week moving average declined to 1.839 million in the latest week from 1.846 million in the March 14 week. This is the lowest level for this average since September 28, 2024 when it was 1.834 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of March 21. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending March 14, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.83%), New Jersey (2.73%), Massachusetts (2.66%), Washington (2.39%), Minnesota (2.31%), California (2.17%), and New York (2.01%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.31%), Louisiana (0.32%), Arkansas (0.36%), Alabama (0.38%), and North Carolina (0.40%). Rates in other notable states include Illinois (1.99%), Connecticut (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.72%), and Texas (1.07%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260402C5.jpg

260402D5.jpg

- New claims declined by 9,000 to 202,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 25,000 to 1.841 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Edged Down in the Week of March 28

Sandy Batten

260401V4.jpg

260401W4.jpg

Total retail sales rebounded in February, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (+3.7% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly decline in January (previously -0.2% m/m), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Excluding autos, other sales were up 0.5% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the first monthly increase in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m increase.

The control group of sales (those categories that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) increased 0.5% m/m in February following a 0.2% increase in January. The January/February average for this variable is 2.1% annualized above the Q4 average. In Q4, the control group rose 2.8% saar from Q3. So, today’s figures point to a slight slowdown in PCE growth in the first quarter. Note, however, that the data released today predates the escalation of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran which has led to a marked rise in gasoline/energy prices. The increase in energy prices to date, if maintained, could stress household finances and thereby significantly slow consumer spending ahead.

Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2% m/m in February, their first monthly gain in three months and their largest monthly increase since last July. Furniture sales declined 1.0% m/m in February while sales of electronics and appliances rose 0.5% m/m. Sales of building materials increased 0.4% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 2.3% m/m, their first monthly gain in five months. Sales at gasoline stations rose 0.9% m/m in February, their third monthly gain in the past four months, ahead of the sharp price increases that occurred in March. Clothing store sales jumped 2.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in three months. Department store sales gained 3.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in four months. Food sales slumped 1.0% m/m in February, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales of nonstore retailers increased 0.7% m/m in February on top of a 1.4% m/m jump in January. Eating out sales rose 0.4% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260401X4.jpg

260401Y4.jpg

- Total sales increased 0.6% m/m after a 0.1% m/m decline in January
- Excluding autos, sales increase 0.5% m/m in February after having been unchanged in January.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in February.

U.S. Retail Sales Rebounded in February

Winnie Tapasanun

260401J35.jpg

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U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 62,000 (0.3% y/y) in March after increases of 66,000 in February (+63,000 initially) and 11,000 in January (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The three-month average change was +46,000 in March, up from +38,000 in February and +41,000 in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 40,000 increase in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) climbed a solid 85,000 (0.7% y/y) in March—the ninth straight m/m increase and the largest since August—after a 61,000 gain in February (+60,000 initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) surging 112,000, the strongest m/m rise since February 2024, and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) down 27,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) fell 20,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March following a 6,000 decline in February (-7,000 initially) and two consecutive m/m increases. Large business hiring (500+ employees) slipped 4,000 (+1.0% y/y) after an 11,000 February rebound (+10,000 initially).

Service-producing jobs rose 32,000 (0.5% y/y) in March, the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 50,000 advance in February (+47,000 initially). March’s rise was led by education & health services (+58,000), followed by information (+16,000), leisure & hospitality (+7,000), financial activities (+4,000), other services (+4,000), and professional & business services (+1,000). To the downside, m/m employment fell in trade, transportation & utilities (-58,000).

Goods-producing employment advanced 30,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March, the biggest m/m increase since October 2022, after a 16,000 rise in February (unrevised). March’s gain was led by construction (+30,000) and natural resources & mining (+11,000), while manufacturing (-11,000) continued to decline.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment rose m/m in March in the South (+101,000; +0.5% y/y) and West (+16,000; +0.4% y/y). In contrast, employment fell m/m in the Northeast (-29,000; +0.4% y/y) and Midwest (-26,000; -0.1% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers accelerated to a three-month-high 6.6% y/y in March from 6.3% y/y in February, remaining well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.5% y/y for the third consecutive month in March, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth also remained steady in major industries, including financial activities (5.2% y/y), manufacturing (4.9% y/y), construction (4.7% y/y), leisure & hospitality (4.6% y/y), education & health services (4.3% y/y), and professional & business services (4.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

260401L35.jpg

260401M35.jpg

- Private payrolls +62K in March, ninth straight m/m gain.
- Hiring increase driven by small businesses (+85K), strongest since August.
- Service-sector jobs up (+32K), led by education & health svs. (+58K) and information (+16K), partly offset by trade, transp. & utilities (-58K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+30K), driven by construction (+30K).
- Wage growth accelerates y/y for job changers (6.6%, a three-month high) but steady for job stayers (4.5%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in March Above Forecasts

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.4% w/w (+14.2% y/y) in the week ending March 27, after declining 10.5% w/w (+25.5% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and by 10.9% w/w in the week ending March 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.6% w/w (+0.8% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 5.4% w/w (+5.0% y/y) in the week ending March 20.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 17.3% w/w (+33.2% y/y) in the March 27 week, following a drop of 14.6% w/w (+52.2% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and a decline of 18.5% w/w in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 14bps to 6.76% in the week ending March 27 from 6.62% in the week ending March 20. The rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan has risen 52bps since the February 27 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 5bps to 6.08% in the latest week from 6.03% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 10bps to 6.71% in the March 27 week from 6.61% in the week ending March 20. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 12bps to 5.88% in the latest week from 6.00% in the week ending March 20.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 45.3% of total applications in the week of March 27 from 49.6% in the March 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 8.0% in the week ending March 27 from 8.1% in the week ending March 20.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.3% w/w (-1.9% y/y) to $389,200 in the week ending March 27, after declining 2.4% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $394,500 in the week ending March 20. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.8% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $449,400 in the latest week, after declining 0.5% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $453,200 in the March 20 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 5.5% w/w (+0.3% y/y) to $316,600 in the March 27 week following a drop of 6.3% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $334,900 in the March 20 week. Since the week of February 27, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage has declined 21.8%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing dropped in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 14bps to 6.76% 
- Average loan size declined.

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