Economy in Brief: 2021

• Leaders' improvement is broad-based. • Coincident indicators increase. • Lagging indicators suggest less economic slack. The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators strengthened 1.6% (17.0% y/y) during [...]

• Headline index reverses two months of increase. • Components are mixed m/m but continue to indicate expansion. • Prices paid continue to strengthen. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Factory Sector Business Conditions Index [...]

CBI overview and Orders The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) survey for the industrial sector in the UK saw its total orders reading push up to a +17 net reading in May. This net index (a plus/minus diffusion index) is at its [...]

• Initial claims fall to yet another pandemic low. • But state continuing claims and insured unemployment rate rise. • PUA and PEUC continuing claims turn back down. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 34,000 in the week [...]

The chart above on auto registration really makes all the points you need on this month’s report. While we are schooled to look at percentage changes because they are fairer comparisons over time and free us of some the biases of [...]

• The volume of all applications remains well below January highs. • Refinancings increase, but purchase applications decline. • Mortgage interest rates edge higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Loan Applications Index increased [...]

Online retail sales, more formally known as "E-Commerce sales," increased 7.7% (39.1% y/y) in Q1'21 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Census Bureau, after easing 0.9% in Q4 and 1.2% in Q3. The Q1 increase in [...]

• Disruptions to the Colonial Pipeline operations pushed gasoline prices above the $3.00 per gallon for the first time since October 27, 2014. • The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil held steady • Natural gas prices [...]