Economy in Brief: 2020

• Service sector activity slipped m/m, but remains firm. • Component activity is mixed. • Strength in pricing power resumes. The Composite Index of Services Activity from the Institute for Supply Management fell to 56.6 during October [...]

• Refinancings surge 6.4% as purchase applications fall 1.3%. • New record low rate for 15-year mortgages, 2.63%, and for Jumbo loans, 3.27%. • Fixed rate loan applications up 67% from a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association [...]

• Slowdown is broad-based across company size. • Employment increase is well below expectations. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 365,000 (-7.3% y/y) during October following [...]

• Exports up 2.6% m/m while imports edged up just 0.5%. • Exports led by jump in soybean shipments; slowdown in imports due mostly to softer imports of consumer goods and petroleum. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services [...]

• Sales slip from seven-month high in September. • Light truck sales ease as car sales improve. Vehicle buyers pared back spending last month. The Autodata Corporation reported that sales of light vehicles eased 0.6% during October [...]

• Factory orders rise for fifth straight month. • Shipments gain steadily. • Order backlogs slip while inventories hold steady, again. Activity in the factory sector continues to recover. Manufacturers' orders strengthened 1.1% during [...]

• Natural gas prices rose further as seasonal demand increased and supply tightened. • Energy product demand declined while inventories rose. Natural gas prices posted another marked weekly increase in the week ended October 30, [...]

The global news-flow on COVID-19 has darkened in recent weeks and that will surely sour the economic outlook. A second wave is well and truly underway in many major economies (see figure 1) and policymakers have responded in some [...]