Economy in Brief: May 2021

• Barometer jumps to highest level since November 1973. • New orders & order backlogs continue to surge. • Delivery speeds slow and pricing power remains strong. The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer strengthened to [...]

• Spending on goods weakens broadly; services purchases rise. • Increase in core prices hits twenty-year high. • Total take-home earnings decline but wages surge. Personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% during April (28.5% [...]

• Foreign trade deficit narrowed for the first time in four months. • Exports rose while imports fell. The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed markedly to $85.23 billion in April from a record $91.98 billion [...]

In Q1, GDP-based operating profits for all US companies were unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2020 and posted a 12.7% gain from the comparable period one year ago. The reported profit performance of S&P 500 companies was markedly [...]

• Growth backs off slightly from record level. • Component movement weakens m/m. • Expectations for six months ahead ease again. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index [...]

The GfK climate index as estimated for June rose to a -7 reading. This lifts the reading to its lifetime standing at its 3rd percentile – still extremely weak. The components of the index lag by one month. Even so, economic [...]

• Regional sales declines are widespread. • Purchases remain constrained by limited supply. Pending home sales fell 4.4% (+51.7% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March rise, revised from 1.9%. Sales volume fell to the lowest level [...]

• Transportation orders drive the monthly decline in overall orders. • Core capital goods orders remain on a strong trajectory. • Shipments of durable goods and of core capital goods post healthy gains. Manufacturers' orders for [...]