Economy in Brief: October 2018

China’s manufacturing PMI fell for the second month in a row, clinging to a value barely in the zone that signals that output is expanding (PMI values above 50). China’s manufacturing PMI has not had a reading as strong as 52 since [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Applications Index retreated 2.5% (-15.5% y/y) last week following a 4.9% increase in the prior week. Purchase loan applications fell 1.5% (-0.5% y/y) after a 2.0% [...]

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer declined to 58.4 in October from September's 60.4. It was the third consecutive monthly decline and left the index below its December peak of 67.8. The Action Economics Forecast [...]

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 227,000 (2.0% y/y) during October following a 218,000 September rise, revised from 230,000. Expectations had been for a 185,000 gain in the Action [...]

The employment cost index for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (2.8% y/y) in the third quarter of 2018, up from a 0.6% q/q rise in the second. Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.7% q/q increase. Employment costs in the [...]

Consumer confidence during October improved to the highest level since September 2000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased 1.9% (9.3% y/y) to 137.9 from 135.3 in September, initially reported as 138.4. The October [...]

Japan's trade deficit widened in September. This makes three deficits in a row and four deficits in the past five months. Japan's trade situation is not helping to support domestic growth. Exports are up by 1.2% over 12 months and are [...]

Gasoline prices declined three cents last week to an average $2.81 per gallon (+13.0% y/y). It was the lowest price since late-April. Prices peaked at $2.90 earlier in the month. Haver Analytics constructs factors to adjust for the [...]