Economy in Brief: March 2003

The rise in industrial production in Japan which began in early 2002 appears to have stalled. Since last August, the index has ranged from 99.1 to 96.9 (1995=100) and in February was only 97.0. The decline from January to February for [...]

The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first month since October. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 51.5. The decline was similar to the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed [...]

Personal consumption expenditures were flat in February for the second consecutive month. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% decline. Adjusted for price inflation, PCE fell 0.4% and that followed a 0.2% decline in January. Despite [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were lower than Consensus expectations for 420,000. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The 5.9% w/w decline dropped claims to the lowest level since the first week of [...]

Durable goods orders fell about as expected last month. The sharp gain in January orders was revised down significantly. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline in February orders. The recent volatility in orders has been [...]

Measures of business and consumer confidence in March for three Eurozone countries–Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands--show growing pessimism among businessmen and consumers. Except for the Netherlands, business men were less [...]

Chain store sales ticked 0.1% higher last week for the fourth consecutive weekly gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Mild weather helped sales offset the "CNN effect" related to the start of War in Iraq. The sales rise last week [...]

War in Iraq generated a sharp retreat in crude oil prices. The US spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $27.50 by the end of last week from the high over $37.00 earlier in the month. Lower oil prices pulled down the [...]