Global| Mar 24 2003Oil & Other Commodity Prices Down Recently
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
War in Iraq generated a sharp retreat in crude oil prices. The US spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $27.50 by the end of last week from the high over $37.00 earlier in the month. Lower oil prices pulled down the [...]
War in Iraq generated a sharp retreat in crude oil prices. The US spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $27.50 by the end of last week from the high over $37.00 earlier in the month.
Lower oil prices pulled down the index of commodity prices compiled by the Journal of Commerce (JoC) and the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). The All Items index fell 2.6% by the end of last week from the high earlier in the month.
Metals prices have fallen 1.7% since early March. Aluminum prices have fallen roughly 5% from the recent high and are flat versus last year. Copper scrap prices have held steady recently and have risen 3% y/y. Steel scrap prices also have held steady but are up roughly 50% from March '02.
Textile prices have fallen just slightly since the recent highs and are up about 6% from last year. Cotton prices have been quite firm, up by half from last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the JoC-ECRI All Items Index and the y/y change in factory sector industrial production.
| JOC-ECRI Industrial Price Index (1996=100) | 3/21/03 | 12/31/02 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Items | 87.0 | 83.9 | 79.6 | 80.4 | 89.0 |
| Textiles | 63.6 | 62.4 | 59.7 | 61.3 | 69.7 |
| Metals | 81.2 | 75.8 | 75.2 | 75.5 | 87.8 |
| Miscellaneous | 89.0 | 90.1 | 85.9 | 87.4 | 86.5 |
| Petroleum Products | 146.7 | 132.5 | 110.2 | 109.0 | 137.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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