Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020401b.jpg" width="353">
Personal income in February rose by the strongest amount for any one month since December 2000. The gain followed a strong rise January. Strength in both months was powered by huge gains in farm proprietors&#39; income. 
Wage and salary disbursements rose 0.4% (2.0% y/y) in February following a slight decline the month earlier. 
Personal spending was strong, powered by a rise in unit vehicle sales. Spending on nondurable goods and services rose moderately. 
Disposable income was strong, rising 0.7% 4.6% y/y) following a 1.8% gain January. 
The PCE price deflator was quite tame for the twelfth month in thirteen.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E711/@E71102/@E71102.HTM">Disposition of Personal Income</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Personal Income</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Personal Consumption</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Savings Rate</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">PCE Price Deflator</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Sentiment Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 29, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020401a.jpg" width="353">
The March reading of Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan was slightly stronger than the mid-month reading and up 5.5% from the February level. 
The improved sentiment accompanied a 16.0% surge in consumer confidence reported earlier by the Conference Board, confirming that the consumer does indeed feel better about his well being.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 39% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month % change in real PCE.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">Univ. of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">March</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>90.7</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>107.6</td>
<td>105.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Personal income in February rose by the strongest amount for any one month since December 2000. The gain followed a strong rise January. Strength in both months was powered by huge gains in farm proprietors' income. Wage and salary [...]

Personal Income and Spending Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020328b.jpg" width="353">
GDP growth was revised slightly higher, mostly reflecting a revised estimate of trade sector deterioration.
The advance GDP estimate pegged growth at 0.2% (AR).
The rate of inventory decumulation was little changed. As a percentage of GDP it set a record. 
Domestic final demand growth was little revised, strong at 3.9% (AR). Real PCE rose 6.1% reflecting auto sales incentives. Residential investment fell along with fixed capital investment, down for the fifth consecutive quarter . 
The net export deficit deteriorated slightly less than reported earlier. Exports fell 10.9% and imports fell 7.5%. Both were down for the fifth consecutive quarter. 
Inflation was revised up slightly, but prices still fell for the first time since 1Q 1952.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained &#39;96 $, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;01 (Final)</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;01 (Revised)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;01</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trade Effect</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Deflator</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Surge 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 28, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020328a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up slightly.
The four-week moving average of claims rose to 383,500, the highest level since late January.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the latest week but the prior week&#39;s level was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.7%, about where it&#39;s been all year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/23/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/16/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>394.0</td>
<td>376.0</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>408.0</td>
<td>302.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,526</td>
<td>40.1%</td>
<td>3,031</td>
<td>2,127</td>
<td>2,187</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Rose 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 28, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020328c.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Manager&#146;s Index of Business activity rose more than expected in March, and was at its highest level since April 2000. 
Indexes of new orders, production, employment and inventories all rose. 
The prices paid index was unchanged but vendor delivery speeds slowed for the third straight month. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF05/@EF05.HTM">Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Barometer</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>53.1</td>
<td>35.6</td>
<td>41.4</td>
<td>51.8</td>
<td>56.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>51.2</td>
<td>58.6</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>65.6</td>
<td>57.6</td>
</tr>
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GDP growth was revised slightly higher, mostly reflecting a revised estimate of trade sector deterioration. The advance GDP estimate pegged growth at 0.2% (AR). The rate of inventory decumulation was little changed. As a percentage of [...]

4Q GDP Revised Up Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020327a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new single family homes rose slightly less than expected last month. A stronger rise to 890,000 units had been expected.
January sales were revised up slightly.
Sales were mixed across the country&#146;s regions; up in the South and West, down in the Northeast and Midwest. 
The median price of a new home fell 2.4% from January to $179,600, +6.2% y/y.
The new home sales data reflect current sales versus the existing home sales figure which reflects closings on past sales. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM">Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>875</td>
<td>831</td>
<td>-8.8%</td>
<td>909</td>
<td>881</td>
<td>879</td>
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</tbody>
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Sales of new single family homes rose slightly less than expected last month. A stronger rise to 890,000 units had been expected. January sales were revised up slightly. Sales were mixed across the countrys regions; up in the South [...]

New Home Sales Up

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<img align="left" border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020326a.jpg">
Durable goods orders rose slightly more than expected last month. January&#39;s huge increase was revised down sharply due to lowered estimates for nondefense capital goods.
Excluding transportation, durable orders fell 1.3% after rising between 0.2% and 0.6% in each of the prior three months.
Orders for aircraft and parts surged 41.0% but motor vehicle orders fell 5.9%.
Orders for computers &amp; related products fell 2.4% after rising an upwardly revised 3.3% the prior month. These orders have been firming since October.
Durable shipments fell 3.2% following a 1.8% January rise due to across the board component declines.
Durable inventories fell 0.5% and have fallen in each of the last thirteen months.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM">NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-12.9%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>-17.2%</td>
<td>14.4%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 26, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020326b.jpg">
Chain store sales fell last week and fell during four of the last five weeks.
With one week remaining, March sales are down 0.2% from the February average. February sales rose 2.5% from January.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">3/23/02</th>
<th scope="col">3/16/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>405.1</td>
<td>407.5</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 26, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020326c.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence surged unexpectedly in March. February&#39;s level was revised up. 
The 16.0% m/m rise in the Conference Board measure far outpaced the mid-month reading from the University of Michigan that consumers&#39; attitudes also had improved. 
The rise in confidence reflected much higher readings for both consumer expectations and confidence regarding the present situation. 
The Conference Board&#39;s survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>110.2</td>
<td>95.0</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>106.6</td>
<td>139.0</td>
<td>135.3</td>
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Durable goods orders rose slightly more than expected last month. January's huge increase was revised down sharply due to lowered estimates for nondefense capital goods. Excluding transportation, durable orders fell 1.3% after rising [...]

Durable Goods Orders Up, but Lack Strong Momentum

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020325a.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single family homes fell less than expected last month, down 2.8% from January&#39;s record sales pace which was revised up slightly.
Home sales were down in each of the country&#146;s four regions except the Northeast.
The median price of an existing home fell slightly to $150,000 (8.2% y/y). January figures were revised slightly lower.
The figures reflect closings of past sales. 
The average rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage fell to 6.89% last month from 7.00% in January. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;5,880</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,050</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>5,291</td>
<td>5,159</td>
<td>5,19</td>
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Sales of existing single family homes fell less than expected last month, down 2.8% from January's record sales pace which was revised up slightly. Home sales were down in each of the countrys four regions except the Northeast. The [...]

Existing Home Sales Down But Level Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020322a.jpg" width="353">
Oil prices have surged 23% since the lows set early in February. During the same period the market price for regular unleaded gasoline is up by more than a third. 
Despite these increases, oil and gasoline prices remain below the levels of last year. In the February CPI report, gasoline prices were 23% lower than a year ago. Market gasoline prices were down 33% y/y.
Prices for most other commodities also have risen in 2002, but gains have been much more moderate than those for oil.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/DAILY/@D3/@D306/@D30601/@D30601.HTM">Crude Oil Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">3/20/02</th>
<th scope="col">2/6/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Arab Light Crude Oil ($/BBL)</td>
<td>20.95</td>
<td>17.04</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
<td>22.39</td>
<td>25.42</td>
<td>16.28</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Oil prices have surged 23% since the lows set early in February. During the same period the market price for regular unleaded gasoline is up by more than a third. Despite these increases, oil and gasoline prices remain below the [...]

Oil Prices Surging

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020321a.jpg" width="353">
Consumer prices overall rose about as expected last month. Core inflation rose slightly more than the 0.2% Consensus expectation. 
The modest surprise in core inflation was due to no change in consumer goods prices versus deflation during the prior two months. A 3.8% rise in tobacco prices led this firming. Apparel prices also rose 0.5% after falling during the three prior months. Home furnishing and new vehicle prices fell.
Services prices less energy rose 0.4%, about the same as during the prior three months. Shelter prices rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) while medical care services rose just 0.2% (4.6% y/y). Public transportation prices fell (-2.3% y/y). 
Energy prices reversed most of the January rise due to lower prices for gasoline, fuel oil and natural gas &amp; electricity.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E801/@E80101/@E80101.HTM">Consumer Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Total less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Goods less Food &amp; Energy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services less Energy</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Energy</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>-15.6%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Food &amp; Beverages</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 21, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020321b.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell about as expected from the prior week&#39;s level that was revised up slightly. The latest figure is for the survey week for nonfarm payrolls. Claims were up slightly from the February survey period.
Initial claims have fluctuated between 360,000 and 390,000 since mid-January.
There has been an 82% correlation between the level of initial claims and the 3-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
The four-week moving average of claims rose slightly to 379,000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly in the latest week but the prior week&#39;s level was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.7%, about where it&#39;s been all year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/16/02</th>
<th scope="col">03/09/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>371.0</td>
<td>383.0</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>408.0</td>
<td>302.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,465</td>
<td>40.7%</td>
<td>3,031</td>
<td>2,127</td>
<td>2,187</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Leading Indicators Unchanged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 21, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020321c.jpg" width="353">
The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators was unchanged last month, about as expected. January&#39;s increase was revised up from 0.6%. 
55% of the component series contributed to the increase, the narrowest breadth-of-gain since September. The six-month diffusion index improved to 60%, its highest since January 2000.
The money supply had the largest positive contribution to the leader&#39;s rise while lower stock prices had largest negative effect.
The Leading index is based on eight previously reported economic data series and two that are estimated.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/BCI/BCI.HTM">Business Cycle Indicators</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Leading</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Coincident</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Lagging</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Budget Deficit Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller </a> March 21, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020321d.jpg" width="353">
The US budget deficit surged in February pulling the fiscal year-to-date balance to its worst first five months level since 1997. 
Receipts fell sharply. Fiscal YTD individual income taxes are down 7.3% versus last year, reflecting higher unemployment. 
Growth in expenditures surged lifted by higher spending on defense, education and income security. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E10602.HTM">US Government Finance</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Fiscal YTD</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>$-76.1B</td>
<td>$43.7B</td>
<td>$-69.4B</td>
<td>$127.2B</td>
<td>$236.9B</td>
<td>$124.4B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revenues</td>
<td>-51.9%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>10.8%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Outlays</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>9.7s%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Philadelphia Fed Index Down Slightly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> March 21, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020321e.jpg" width="353">
The Philadelphia Fed&#146;s index of general business conditions fell as expected. Nevertheless, the index remained positive for the third month following more than a year of negative readings.
New orders and delivery lead times were down. Inventories fell but at a lesser rate. 
The business conditions index reflects a separate survey question, not the components. 
Inflation pressure was positive for the first month since last June.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S504/@S504.HTM">Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook</a></th>
<th scope="col">Mar</th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">General Activity Index</td>
<td>11.4</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>-20.1</td>
<td>-17.3</td>
<td>8.2</td>
<td>13.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>3.0</td>
<td>-4.5</td>
<td>14.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>27.1</td>
<td>10.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Consumer prices overall rose about as expected last month. Core inflation rose slightly more than the 0.2% Consensus expectation. The modest surprise in core inflation was due to no change in consumer goods prices versus deflation [...]

Consumer Prices Rose Expected 0.2%

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/020320a.jpg" width="353">
Housing starts rose unexpectedly last month versus consensus expectations for a moderate decline. January starts, perhaps boosted by unseasonably warm weather, were revised up. 
Starts in February were the second highest since early 1987, exceeded only slightly by the level in December 1998. 
Single-family starts rose a sharp 7.4% m/m, the third strong consecutive monthly gain to the highest level since December 1978. Activity often rises as interest rates begin to rise as homebuyers rush to buy/build ahead of further rate increases.
Multi-family starts fell but have moved sideways in a narrow range since 1997.
By region, starts were strongest in the West but fell in the Northeast.
Building permits were strong for the fourth straight month.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E901/@E90101/@E90101.HTM">Housing Starts (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Feb</th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1,769</td>
<td>1,721</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>1,608</td>
<td>1,575</td>
<td>1,647</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Single Family</td>
<td>1,457</td>
<td>1,357</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>1,276</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,306</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Multi Family</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>364</td>
<td>-6.9%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>342</td>
<td>341</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Housing starts rose unexpectedly last month versus consensus expectations for a moderate decline. January starts, perhaps boosted by unseasonably warm weather, were revised up. Starts in February were the second highest since early [...]

Housing Starts Surprisingly Strong

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

Blue Chip forecasters think Fed will be tighter for longer

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240503A4.jpg

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 175,000 (1.8% y/y) in April after rising 315,000 in March, revised from 303,000, and 236,000 in February, revised from 270,000. Expectations had been for a 250,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The three-month average change of 242,000 is the slowest since December of	 last year.

Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% in April after an unrevised 0.3% March gain and a 0.1% uptick in February, revised from 0.2%. The 3.9% y/y earnings increase remains below the 5.9% high in March 2022. It is the weakest rise since June 2021.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, rose to 3.9% and reversed its decline to 3.8% in March. An unchanged 3.8% had been expected. Household employment rose 25,000 after increasing 498,000 in March. The labor force rose 87,000 after a 469,000 March gain. The overall unemployment rate, including workers who were marginally attached & working part-time for economic reasons edged up to 7.4%. It was the highest rate since November 2021.

In the **payroll survey**, private-sector employment increased 167,000 (1.7% y/y) in April after rising 243,000 in March. Construction sector employment increased 9,000 (3.3% y/y) last month following a 40,000 March gain. Factory sector jobs rose 8,000 (0.1% y/y) after falling 4,000. Mining & logging sector jobs fell 3,000 (+0.3% y/y) during April after rising 3,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment improved 153,000 in April (1.7% y/y) after a 204,000 March rise. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Education & health service jobs rose 95,000 (4.3% y/y) after rising 88,000 in March while leisure & hospitality employment rose 5,000 (2.3% y/y) after a 53,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities employment gained 52,000 (0.7% y/y) after rising 31,000 while financial activities jobs rose 6,000 (0.5% y/y) after rising 5,000 in March. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-1.4% y/y) following a 4,000 gain and professional & business service jobs decreased 4,000 (0.5% y/y) after a 10,000 March rise. Within that category, the number of temporary jobs fell 16,400 (-6.0% y/y) and have fallen consistently since a March 2022 high.

Government sector payrolls improved a negligible 8,000 last month (2.8% y/y) after increasing 72,000 in March. Local government jobs held steady (2.4% y/y) after rising 51,000 in March and state government employment rose 6,000 (3.7% y/y) after an 11,000 gain. The number of federal government jobs increased 2,000 (2.9% y/y) following a 10,000 rise.

The 0.2% rise in private-sector average hourly earnings reflected a 0.2% gain (5.1% y/y) in the goods-producing sector which followed a 0.6% improvement in March. Earnings in construction strengthened 0.6% (5.2% y/y) while factory sector earnings eased 0.1% (+4.8% y/y). In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% last month (3.7% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Information sector earnings edged 0.1% higher (3.4% y/y) following a 0.4% improvement. Financial sector earnings increased 0.4% (6.0% y/y) for the third straight month. Private education & health services earnings rose slightly (2.8% y/y) after holding steady in March. Trade, transportation and utilities pay rose 0.1% (3.4% y/y) in April after a 0.2% rise.

240503C4.jpg

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The length of the average workweek in the private sector eased to 34.3 hours in April after rising to 34.4 hours in March. The workweek in the goods-producing sector fell to 39.7 hours, down from a five-month high of 39.9 hours in March. The construction sector average workweek fell to 38.7 hours from 39.3. The factory sector workweek held steady at 40.0 hours for the third straight month while the average workweek in the private service sector was 33.3 hours, also for the third consecutive month. The aggregate weekly hours index in the private sector, a key indicator of production and income, eased 0.1% in April (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4% in both of the prior two months.

In the **household survey**, the jobless rate climbed to 3.9% as the size of the labor force rose more quickly than employment. The labor force participation rate held steady at 62.7%. The rate for teenagers declined to 37.6%, while for individuals aged 20-24 it rose to 72.4%. For rate for workers aged 25-54, it edged higher to 83.5% but for workers 55 and over, it fell slightly to 38.4 hours.

The employment/population ratio for all workers slipped to 60.2% in April, standing slightly below where it was twelve months earlier. It remained below its high of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job increase slows to weakest in just over one year.
- Earnings increase moderates.
- Jobless rate moves up as employment increase is negligible.

U.S. Payroll Employment & Wage Growth Moderate in April; Jobless Rate Edges Up

Andrew Cates

**Consensus interest rate forecasts**
Despite heightened concerns about the potential for lower US interest rates in the coming months, recent forecasts still show a broad consensus that an easing cycle will unfold in the period ahead across most major economies. The latest Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey, for instance, indicates that policy rate reductions of approximately 100 basis points are anticipated from the Fed over the next 12 months. Additionally, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to implement cumulative cuts of 166 and 111 basis points, respectively, during the same timeframe. In contrast, Japan is expected to see further rate hikes, specifically an increase of 17 basis points over the year ahead.

240502Z1.jpg

**US data surprises and 2 year bond yields**
The anxiety in financial markets about the Fed’s scope to lower interest rates can be largely traced to the US economy’s resilience – and its tight labour market in particular – together with sticky inflation. The former, however, namely economic resilience, has arguably being challenged in recent days by some, though by no means all, US data releases. These include, for example, a weaker-than expected consumer confidence report and ISM survey of manufacturing. Citigroup’s US growth surprise index has, against that backdrop, turned sharply lower.

240502Z2.jpg

**US and euro area data surprises versus the euro**
A corresponding trend has also unfolded in the FX market. While US data have been a little more disappointing this contrasts with euro area data, which have been more resilient. Yet, thanks to still-firm US/Europe yield differentials, the US dollar has remained fairly resilient versus the euro (see chart 3).

240502Z3.jpg

**Japan’s economy**
This week’s disappointing retail sales data from Japan could call into question the scope for further policy rate hikes from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the coming months. Retail sales specifically slowed to 1.2% y/y in March from 4.7% in February. That slowdown, moreover, was broadly-based, with reduced sales activity seen across various product categories.

240502Z4.jpg

**Airport traffic in China**
The latest monthly dataflow from China have been a little more upbeat but that was not the message from this week’s official PMI surveys for April. Other less widely monitored data are also yielding sobering messages about the current economic environment. For instance, while aircraft movements at Beijing Airport have risen from their low points, they still remain well below pre-COVID pandemic levels (see chart 5). Similarly, specific data on cargo volumes and passenger traffic lead to the same conclusion.

240502Z5.jpg

**Global warming and water levels**
Finally, on more structural matters, climate change continues to generate profound shifts in the economic landscape, influencing everything from agricultural productivity to energy markets and global supply chains. One manifestation of these shifts is low water levels in many areas and for example, in the Panama Canal. More specifically Gatun Lake has seen prolonged drought conditions, exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon and broader climate change anomalies. The drought has resulted in lower-than-average rainfall and delayed rainy seasons, leading to reduced water availability not only for canal operations but also for over half of Panama's population relying on this water source. To that supply chain point above, the canal has also had to reduce the number of ships it can accommodate per day.

240502Z6.jpg

Lingering concerns about the US Fed's inclination to lower interest rates in coming months have continued to unsettle financial markets over the past few days. That said, comments from Fed Chair Powell after this week’s FOMC meeting have calmed some of those nerves. In our charts this week we delve into the latest Blue Chip consensus on policy rates across the world’s major economies (chart 1). We also compare market expectations for US policy rates, inferred from 2-year Treasury yields, with a trend toward more negative US data surprises in recent days (chart 2). In addition we contrast that more negative US growth trend with the relative resilience of the euro area dataflow and some recent downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate (chart 3). Turning to Asia, we assess Japan's economy with a focus on some recent disappointing retail sales data (chart 4), and provide insights into China's economic activity through aircraft movements at Beijing Airport (chart 5). Finally, and with a nod to climate change and its impact, we look at reduced water levels on the Panama Canal and how these contrast with above-average land and sea temperatures over the past few years (chart 6).

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/1UGzrkribMM4URLI6yDhWG?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Policy Surprises Versus Data Surprises

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) of $69.4 billion in March compared to a $69.5 billion in February, revised from $68.9 billion, and an unrevised $67.6 billion in January, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The deficit remained nearly the largest since April 2023 which was $72.2 billion. A $69.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports fell 2.0% and were roughly unchanged y/y, reversing a 2.2% February rise. Imports declined 1.6% (+3.1% y/y) in March, following three straight months of moderate gain.

The deficit in goods trade (BOP basis) increased to $92.5 billion in March from $91.7 billion in February. Goods exports fell 2.9% (-2.8% y/y) after rising 2.8% in February. Imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.5% y/y) following three straight monthly increases. The services trade surplus increased to $23.1 billion in March from $22.2 billion in February but remained down from a peak surplus of $25.2 billion last August. Services exports eased 0.2% (+6.0% y/y) following four consecutive monthly increases. Services imports declined 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) after rising 4.7% in February.

The real (inflation-adjusted) goods trade deficit (customs value; chained 2017 dollars), widened to $88.6 billion in March, the largest deficit since April of last year, from $87.4 billion in February. Real exports of goods declined 3.2% (-0.7% y/y) after rising 2.0% in February. Real imports of goods fell 1.5% (+2.5% y/y) after three straight monthly increases. In the first quarter of this year, a widening of the trade deficit (net exports) subtracted 0.86 percentage points from GDP growth after adding 0.25 percentage points to growth in Q4 2023.

The customs value goods trade deficit widened to $91.5 billion in March from $90.5 billion in February. The latest figure compared to a $91.8 billion deficit in the advance report released on April 25. Customs value exports fell 3.0% (-1.7% y/y) in March after a 2.8% February increase. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines rose 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) while nonfood consumer goods excluding autos declined 1.8% (-5.1% y/y). Capital goods exports excluding autos weakened 3.7% (+3.1% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies & materials fell 3.0% (-4.1% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverages exports were off 8.2% (-1.5% y/y).

Customs value imports of goods declined 1.6% (+2.6% y/y) in March after increasing for three straight months. Automotive vehicles, parts & engines imports fell 11.1% (+6.1% y/y) while capital goods imports excluding autos rose 0.1% (7.4% y/y). Foods, feeds & beverage imports declined 3.5% (+5.2% y/y). Imports of industrial supplies & materials fell 2.9% (-7.0% y/y) but nonfood consumer goods excluding autos rose 4.8% (4.1% y/y). Meanwhile, petroleum imports declined 2.5% and were unchanged y/y in March, following a 1.6% February rise. Nonpetroleum imports weakened 1.5% (+2.8% y/y) following three straight monthly increases.

The rise in services exports reflected a 0.7% increase (12.4% y/y) in personal, cultural & recreational services and a 1.3% decline (+24.9% y/y) in travel services exports. Exports of construction services declined 1.3% (+2.6% y/y) while government goods & services exports declined 0.9% (-23.0% y/y). The increase in services imports was due to construction services imports which rose 1.0% (35.1% y/y) but travel services imports fell 2.6% (+21.7% y/y). Imports of transport services declined 5.8% (-0.1% y/y) while charges for the use of intellectual property eased 0.1% (+3.2 y/y) in March.

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China widened to a seasonally adjusted $24.1 billion in March from $21.9 billion in February. Exports fell 3.6% (-10.3% y/y) while imports rose 4.8% (unchanged y/y). The goods trade deficit with the European Union deepened to $19.5 billion from $17.6 billion in February as exports fell 3.4% (-6.4% y/y), off for the third straight month, and imports rose 1.8% (4.2% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $5.3 billion in March after narrowing to $6.2 billion in the previous month. Exports declined 1.9% (+3.0% y/y) while imports fell 8.7% (-2.2% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Exports and imports both fall.
- Adjusted for inflation, goods trade deficit increases to eleven-month high.
- Goods trade deficits with China & Europe deepen.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens in March

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The Commerce Department reported that inventories in the factory sector remained unchanged (0.6% y/y) during March after a 0.2% February rise. Transportation equipment inventories held steady (6.9% y/y). Furniture inventories increased 0.3% (-4.4% y/y) while electrical equipment inventories dropped 0.4% (-0.5% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, petroleum inventories were 0.5% higher (2.6% y/y) and plastics & rubber inventories rose 0.2% (-4.8% y/y). These changes were accompanied by a 0.5% rise (-1.7% y/y) in apparel. Basic chemical inventories were unchanged (-0.6% y/y) for a second consecutive month while paper product inventories gained 0.2% (-2.6% y/y).

Orders to all manufacturers improved 1.6% (1.7% y/y) in March following a 1.2% February rise. The gain was led by a 2.6% rise (1.2% y/y) in durable goods orders, as commercial aircraft surged 30.6% (-50.9% y/y) in. New orders excluding transportation gained 0.5% (1.6% y/y). Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) rose 0.6% (2.1% y/y). The rise reflected a 1.5% increase (4.9% y/y) in shipments from oil refineries and a 0.7% gain (2.1% y/y) in basic chemicals. Orders for textile products declined 1.4% (-1.7% y/y) and apparel orders fell 0.2% (-1.9% y/y). Orders for food products rose 0.2% (-0.3% y/y). Paper product shipments held steady (-2.0% y/y).

Unfilled orders improved 0.4% in March (9.1% y/y) and, excluding the transportation sector, they eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y). Backlogs of electrical equipment slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y). Unfilled orders in the machinery sector eased 0.3% (-3.9% y/y) and unfilled orders for transportation equipment rose 0.7% (15.5% y/y). Unfilled orders of furniture rose 0.6% (-5.6% y/) and fabricated metals backlogs were off 0.1%, unchanged y/y.

The factory sector figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database.

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- Inventories levels are flat.
- Order improvement led by aircraft.
- Unfilled orders rise.

U.S. Factory Inventories Hold Steady While Orders Rise in March

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Nonfarm business sector productivity increased 0.3% (SAAR) during Q1’24, following upwardly revised gains of 3.5% in Q4’23 and 4.6% in Q3’23. The rises in productivity were originally reported as being 3.4% in Q4 and 4.4% in Q3. Expectations had been for a 0.8% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. On a year-on-year comparison, Q1 productivity rose 2.9%, up from 2.7% in Q4 and 2.4% in Q3. The y/y gain was the quickest since 2020. Real value-added output rose 1.3% (SAAR) (3.2% y/y) in Q1 from a 3.8% (3.3% y/y) gain in Q4.

Hours-worked in the nonfarm business sector rose 1.0% (0.3% y/y) in Q1 from a 0.2% (0.6% y/y) rise in Q4. Nonfarm hourly compensation increased 5.0% (4.7% y/y) in Q1 from a 3.5% gain (5.2% y/y) in Q4. Adjusted for price inflation, real compensation per hour rose 1.1% (1.5% y/y) in Q1, following a 0.8% (1.9% y/y) rise in Q4.

Weaker productivity brought an acceleration in unit labor costs to 4.7% (1.8% y/y) in Q1 after a 0.0% (2.4%) rise in Q4. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 2.3% quarterly rise in unit labor costs.

In the manufacturing sector, real output per hour slowed to a rise of 0.2% (1.2% y/y) last quarter after a gain of 2.4% (0.9% y/y) in Q4. Manufacturing output was unchanged over the quarter (-0.1% y/y) after declining 1.0% (-0.2% y/y) in Q4. Hours-worked declined 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) in Q1 after a drop of 3.3% (-1.1% y/y) in Q4.

Compensation per hour in manufacturing slowed to a gain of 3.4% (6.3% y/y) last quarter following a rise of 6.8% (6.7% y/y) in Q4. Real compensation declined 0.4% (3.0% y/y) in Q1, after a rise of 4.0% (3.4% y/y) in Q4. Unit labor costs in manufacturing slowed to a rise of 3.2% (5.0% y/y) in Q1 following a gain of 4.2% (5.8% y/y) the prior quarter.

The productivity and labor cost data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Productivity slows in Q1.
- Unit labor costs rise sharply.
- Slowdown in factory productivity and unit labor cost growth.

Economy in Brief: March 2002

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