Global| Mar 28 20024Q GDP Revised Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
GDP growth was revised slightly higher, mostly reflecting a revised estimate of trade sector deterioration. The advance GDP estimate pegged growth at 0.2% (AR). The rate of inventory decumulation was little changed. As a percentage of [...]
GDP growth was revised slightly higher, mostly reflecting a revised estimate of trade sector deterioration.
The advance GDP estimate pegged growth at 0.2% (AR).
The rate of inventory decumulation was little changed. As a percentage of GDP it set a record.
Domestic final demand growth was little revised, strong at 3.9% (AR). Real PCE rose 6.1% reflecting auto sales incentives. Residential investment fell along with fixed capital investment, down for the fifth consecutive quarter .
The net export deficit deteriorated slightly less than reported earlier. Exports fell 10.9% and imports fell 7.5%. Both were down for the fifth consecutive quarter.
Inflation was revised up slightly, but prices still fell for the first time since 1Q 1952.
| Chained '96 $, % AR | 4Q '01 (Final) | 4Q '01 (Revised) | 3Q '01 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 1.7% | 1.4% | -1.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% |
| Inventory Effect | -2.2% | -2.2% | -0.8% | -1.5% | -1.1% | -0.2% | -0.2% |
| Final Sales | 3.8% | 3.6% | -0.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% |
| Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.6% | -0.9% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 3.9% | 3.9% | -0.3% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 5.2% |
| Chained GDP Price Deflator | -0.1% | -0.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 1.4% |
by Tom Moeller March 28, 2002
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose unexpectedly from the prior week's level that was revised up slightly.
The four-week moving average of claims rose to 383,500, the highest level since late January.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose sharply in the latest week but the prior week's level was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.7%, about where it's been all year.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 03/23/02 | 03/16/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 394.0 | 376.0 | 7.9% | 408.0 | 302.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,526 | 40.1% | 3,031 | 2,127 | 2,187 |
by Tom Moeller March 28, 2002
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity rose more than expected in March, and was at its highest level since April 2000.
Indexes of new orders, production, employment and inventories all rose.
The prices paid index was unchanged but vendor delivery speeds slowed for the third straight month.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 55.7 | 53.1 | 35.6 | 41.4 | 51.8 | 56.5 |
| Prices Paid | 51.2 | 51.2 | 58.6 | 50.5 | 65.6 | 57.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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