Global| Mar 26 2002Durable Goods Orders Up, but Lack Strong Momentum
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders rose slightly more than expected last month. January's huge increase was revised down sharply due to lowered estimates for nondefense capital goods. Excluding transportation, durable orders fell 1.3% after rising [...]
Durable goods orders rose slightly more than expected last month. January's huge increase was revised down sharply due to lowered estimates for nondefense capital goods.
Excluding transportation, durable orders fell 1.3% after rising between 0.2% and 0.6% in each of the prior three months.
Orders for aircraft and parts surged 41.0% but motor vehicle orders fell 5.9%.
Orders for computers & related products fell 2.4% after rising an upwardly revised 3.3% the prior month. These orders have been firming since October.
Durable shipments fell 3.2% following a 1.8% January rise due to across the board component declines.
Durable inventories fell 0.5% and have fallen in each of the last thirteen months.
| NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Goods Orders | 1.5% | 1.3% | -5.7% | -12.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | 4.9% | -2.1% | -15.7% | -17.2% | 14.4% | 3.5% |
by Tom Moeller March 26, 2002
Chain store sales fell last week and fell during four of the last five weeks.
With one week remaining, March sales are down 0.2% from the February average. February sales rose 2.5% from January.
During the last ten years there has been a 20% correlation between the monthly percent change in chain store sales and the change in consumer confidence.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 3/23/02 | 3/16/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 405.1 | 407.5 | 4.9% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
by Tom Moeller March 26, 2002
The Conference Board’s Index of Consumer Confidence surged unexpectedly in March. February's level was revised up.
The 16.0% m/m rise in the Conference Board measure far outpaced the mid-month reading from the University of Michigan that consumers' attitudes also had improved.
The rise in confidence reflected much higher readings for both consumer expectations and confidence regarding the present situation.
The Conference Board's survey is conducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.
| Conference Board | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence | 110.2 | 95.0 | -5.7% | 106.6 | 139.0 | 135.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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