Global| Mar 29 2002Personal Income and Spending Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Personal income in February rose by the strongest amount for any one month since December 2000. The gain followed a strong rise January. Strength in both months was powered by huge gains in farm proprietors' income. Wage and salary [...]
Personal income in February rose by the strongest amount for any one month since December 2000. The gain followed a strong rise January. Strength in both months was powered by huge gains in farm proprietors' income.
Wage and salary disbursements rose 0.4% (2.0% y/y) in February following a slight decline the month earlier.
Personal spending was strong, powered by a rise in unit vehicle sales. Spending on nondurable goods and services rose moderately.
Disposable income was strong, rising 0.7% 4.6% y/y) following a 1.8% gain January.
The PCE price deflator was quite tame for the twelfth month in thirteen.
| Disposition of Personal Income | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Personal Consumption | 0.6% | 0.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% |
| Savings Rate | 2.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| PCE Price Deflator | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
by Tom Moeller March 29, 2002
The March reading of Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan was slightly stronger than the mid-month reading and up 5.5% from the February level.
The improved sentiment accompanied a 16.0% surge in consumer confidence reported earlier by the Conference Board, confirming that the consumer does indeed feel better about his well being.
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.
During the past five years there has been a 39% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the 3-month % change in real PCE.
| Univ. of Michigan | March | Feb | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 95.7 | 90.7 | 4.6% | 89.2 | 107.6 | 105.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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