Tom Moeller

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<div align="left"><img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731j.jpg" width="353">
The index of help-wanted advertising, reported by the Conference Board, ticked up last month to 18 from 17 in May. Both levels were, however, still at or near the record lows for the two series.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the level of help-wanted advertising and the three-month change in non-farm payrolls.</div>
Each region of the country held steady with the May level except the West South Central and the West North Central where the indexes rose slightly.
The Conference Board surveys help-wanted print advertising volume in 51 major newspapers across the country every month. The latest help wanted report from the Conference Board is available <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/economics/helpwanted.cfm">here</a>.
In 2006, the Conference Board introduced its Help Wanted Online Data Series and the latest release can be found in this <a href="http://www.conference-board.org/pdf_free/HWOnLine3183_PR.pdf">link</a>.
Economic Projections and Rules of Thumb for Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/07/Orphanides.pdf"> here</a>.<div align="left"></div>

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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CBDB/@C3/@C3.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">June 2007</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">National Help Wanted Index</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>33</td>
<td>39</td>
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</tbody>
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The index of help-wanted advertising, reported by the Conference Board, ticked up last month to 18 from 17 in May. Both levels were, however, still at or near the record lows for the two series. During the last ten years there has [...]

U.S. Help-Wanted Advertising Ticked Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731h.jpg" width="353">
The Chicago Purchasing Manager&#39;s Association reported that its July business barometer improved again. The figure of 50.8, versus 49.6 in June, was the first reading above the break-even level of 50 since this past January. Consensus expectations had been for an unchanged reading of 49.0.
During the last ten years there has been a 67% correlation between the business barometer and the three-month change in US factory sector industrial production. There has been an 85% correlation between the Chicago figure and the national ISM index (due for release tomorrow) and that is the highest correlation of all the regional series with the national ISM index.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731i.jpg" width="353">
Most of the components of the overall index improved in July. By far the largest came from the inventory series which rose sharply. The employment index, however, slipped after sharp improvement in June.
The production and new orders components inched up m/m and remained above the recent lows.
The prices paid index surged to its highest level since early 1980. During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the price index and the three-month change in the finished goods PPI.
House Prices and the Stance of Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/07/Jarocinski.pdf"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S2/@S203/@S203.htm">Chicago PMI</a></th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;July</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chicago PMI Business Barometer Index</td>
<td>50.8</td>
<td>49.6</td>
<td>53.2</td>
<td>54.4</td>
<td>56.8</td>
<td>60.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The Chicago Purchasing Manager's Association reported that its July business barometer improved again. The figure of 50.8, versus 49.6 in June, was the first reading above the break-even level of 50 since this past January. Consensus [...]

Chicago Purchasing Managers' Barometer Improved Again, Prices Surged

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731f.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged last week to 448,000 from 404,000 during the prior week. The latest level was the highest in five years but it may have been upwardly biased by summer workers. The weekly level surpassed Consensus expectations for 390,000 claims.
As a result of the latest jump in initial claims, the four-week moving average increased to 393,000 (27.4% y/y). During June claims averaged 391,000.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731g.jpg" width="353">
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment. Over the longer period of time, the level of claims for jobless insurance has not trended higher with the size of the labor force due to a higher proportion of self-employed workers who are not eligible for benefits.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week jumped 185,000 after declines during the prior two weeks. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose and reached the highest level since early 2004.
Continuing claims provide some indication of workers&#39; ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose to 2.5% from 2.3%. The latest was the highest level since early 2004. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a>&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">07/26/08</th>
<th scope="col">07/19/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>&nbsp;448</td>
<td>404</td>
<td>43.1%</td>
<td>322</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>331</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,282</td>
<td>29.1%</td>
<td>2,552</td>
<td>2,459</td>
<td>2,662</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged last week to 448,000 from 404,000 during the prior week. The latest level was the highest in five years but it may have been upwardly biased by summer workers. The weekly level [...]

U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Surged Again

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731d.jpg" width="353">
The employment cost index for private industry workers increased by 0.6% last quarter and that was the weakest rate of gain since 1Q 2006. It fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. The rise held roughly steady the y/y growth in compensation at 3.0% which was steady with the gains of the last three years.
During the last twenty years there has been a 54% correlation between the growth in employee compensation and the rise in the PCE price index. That level of correlation goes neither up or down, when either series is led or lagged the other. This suggests a self reinforcing effect between the two series.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731e.jpg" width="353">
Wage and salary growth dipped slightly to 0.7% versus 0.8% increases during the prior four quarters. Wages account for roughly 70% of the compensation index. Wages in the services industries grew a steady 0.7% (3.1% y/y) while wages in the goods producing industries grew 0.6% (3.1% y/y) after the 1.0% pop during 1Q.
The rise in benefit costs slowed further to 0.5%. Year-to-year, the 2.6% rise in benefit costs in the service producing industries was roughly steady with the prior two years but down sharply from 4-6% growth back to 2000. In the goods producing sector benefits rose 0.3% (2.2% y/y).
Health benefit costs rose a somewhat reduced 4.6% y/y.
The Fed&#39;s announcement of steps to enhance the effectiveness of its existing liquidity facilities can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080730a.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB08/@EB08.HTM">ECI - Private Industry Workers</a></th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2Q Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Benefit Costs</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The employment cost index for private industry workers increased by 0.6% last quarter and that was the weakest rate of gain since 1Q 2006. It fell short of Consensus expectations for a 0.7% rise. The rise held roughly steady the y/y [...]

U.S. Employment Cost Index Increase Eased in 2Q

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The EMU HICP did slow from its m/m pace of last month but the
headline is still moving higher. The 12-mo to 6-mo to 3-mo growth rates
how that the speed of the rise is accelerating. German price trends are
up-to-date and they show the same steady accelerating as for the EMU
headline. Italy also with inflation updated for July shows the pace
steady at just above 4% across theses same horizons.

We have no details to look at yet in the HICP. But as of last
month goods prices (oil and food) were carrying trends higher whiles
services prices remained subdued. At a 2.2% over three months services
sector inflation actually stepped down in the last three months
compared to 6-mos and 12-mos.

Through June month Core inflation was relatively well behaved
at 1.3% over three months for all of EMU but still an unruly 2.5%
Yr/Yr. German core inflation through June reached only 1.8% Yr/Yr and
shorter time spans show it has been decelerating. Italian and Spanish
Core inflation rates are above 2% for 12 months but in each case
inflation has fallen over shorter horizons. For Italy core 3-Mo
inflation is running at a pace below 2%; for Spain it is a slightly
excessive 2.2%.

The news that the ECB says it watches the most closely is the
worst (headline inflation). But the core shows some progress even if
its 12-mo growth rate remains something to give the ECB pause.


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">Trends in
EMU HICP; Flash Index </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">% mo/mo</td>
<td colspan="4">% saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EMU-13</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Goods</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol" colspan="8">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="8">HICP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Core excl Food Energy
&amp; Alcohol</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" class="firstcol">Blue shaded
area data trail by one
month</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The EMU HICP did slow from its m/m pace of last month but the headline is still moving higher. The 12-mo to 6-mo to 3-mo growth rates how that the speed of the rise is accelerating. German price trends are up-to-date and they show the [...]

HICP Continues to Shoot the Moon

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731a.jpg" width="353">
U.S. real GDP growth last quarter improved to 1.9% from 0.9% during 1Q and from the small decline (revised from a slight increase) during 4Q&#39;07. In addition, growth last year and during 2006 was revised down by 0.2 percentage points to 2.0% and 2.8%. Growth last quarter fell short of Consensus expectations for a 2.2% rate of increase.
Corporate profits were not available for 2Q but the rate of change during 1Q was revised down to -4.3% (-1.5% y/y) from -1.3%.
An improved foreign trade deficit added 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth. That was the largest addition since the third quarter of 1980. Exports grew at a strong 9.2% annual rate. The 10.2% y/y growth rate matched that of the prior three quarters. Growth in imports was negative for the third consecutive quarter at -6.6% (-1.7% y/y) and that was the steepest quarterly rate of decline since the recession year of 2001.
Inventory decumulation offset much of the addition from trade and reduced 2Q GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points. That was the largest subtraction in three years.
Growth in final sales to domestic purchasers improved to a still moderate 1.3% from an unrevised 0.1% during 1Q. The y/y growth rate of 0.8% was the weakest since late in 1991.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080731b.jpg" width="353">
Residential construction continued to weigh on domestic demand as it fell at a 15.6% annual rate (-22.2% y/y). That decline subtracted 0.6 percentage points from 2Q GDP growth after single percentage point subtractions during the prior two quarters.
Growth in real personal consumption improved modestly, perhaps due to the issuance of income tax rebate checks, to 1.5% (1.3% y/y) from 0.9% growth during 1Q. Spending on autos &amp; light trucks fell at an 18.5% (-9.4% y/y) annual rate but spending on furniture &amp; other household equipment surged at a 13.4% (6.9% y/y) rate. Spending on apparel rose at a 10.3% (3.5% y/y) rate but spending on recreation rose only at a 0.8% (-0.5% y/y) rate. Growth in real PCE added 1.1 percentage points to 2Q real GDP growth after a 0.6% add during 1Q.
Growth in business fixed investment held steady with 1Q at a 2.3% rate (4.2% y/y). These latest rates of growth are down sharply from 4.9% increases last year and growth above 7.0% during 2006 and 2005. Last quarter, equipment investment fell at a 3.4% (0.1% y/y) rate while structures investment jumped at a 14.3% (12.9% y/y) rate.
The GDP chain price index grew at a 1.1% rate which was less than half the Consensus expectation for a 2.6% rise. The small increase was due to a 2.2% rate of decline in residential investment prices. The PCE price index grew at an accelerated 4.2% (3.7% y/y) rate.

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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM">Chained 2000$, % AR</a></th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">1Q &#39;08</th>
<th scope="col">4Q &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2Q Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GDP</td>
<td>1.9</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Inventory Effect</td>
<td>-1.9</td>
<td>-0.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-0.6</td>
<td>-0.4</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Final Sales</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Foreign Trade Effect</td>
<td>2.4</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Domestic Final Demand</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>0.1</td>
<td>-0.1</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>1.8</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>3.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chained GDP Price Index</td>
<td>1.1</td>
<td>2.6</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>2.0</td>
<td>2.7</td>
<td>3.2</td>
<td>3.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

U.S. real GDP growth last quarter improved to 1.9% from 0.9% during 1Q and from the small decline (revised from a slight increase) during 4Q'07. In addition, growth last year and during 2006 was revised down by 0.2 percentage points [...]

U.S. 2Q'08 GDP Growth Improved Due to Foreign Trade

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080730g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The picture on top captures the path of the industrial sector
and the services sector in EMU. Both have turned sharply lower by mid
2008 after having peaked about one year ago. The overall EMU sentiment
index is now in the 36th percentile of its range nearly at the border
of the bottom third of its range, a weak enough position that makes it
reasonable to talk of downside risks and even recession potential. The
two weakest sectors/areas by their percentile standings are services
(15th percentile) and Consumer confidence (24th percentile). The
industrial and construction sectors are the relative strongest with
standings at about the mid 50s percent of their respective ranges.

In July all sectors fell and most fell sharply. Services with
a seven point fall and retailing with a six point fall made the largest
drops in the month.

The largest EMU and EU countries saw their overall sentiment
gauges fall in the month with only the smallest of the large countries
(Spain) showing month-to-month improvement. In the case of Spain,
however, the &#8216;bounce&#8217; is a bit of a &#8216;dead cat bounce&#8217; since among these
large European economies Spain&#8217;s has the lowest percentile standing for
its overall sentiment reading which stands at a very lowly 14 percent.
At 26 percent the UK is the next lowest and at 27 percent Italy is the
third lowest. France is the relative strongest at a percentile reading
of 46, followed by Germany at 44 percent. The EMU relative reading at
37.4 percent is just slightly above the EU reading which is 36.0
percent.

We focus on these percent percentile readings since each
industry and country has its own range and dynamic in terms of these
net balance readings. By drawing attention to the percentile position
of a reading in a range of the EU net balance outcomes we can compare
across industries and countries with greater confidence that we are
comparing apples with apples or oranges with oranges.

By comparison, look at the raw net balance readings. In July
all the sector net balance readings are negative except services, which
is at zero. But at zero services is relatively weaker in its range than
are the other sector readings (compare their percentiles!). In perusing
the data you might be tempted to see services as the strong sector
since it is zero while the others are negative. But the fact is that
the services gauge is simply less prone to fall into negative territory
and at zero it is signaling greater sector weakness in services than a
-20 reading would be signaling for consumer confidence.

These EC Commission surveys are very comprehensive, covering
the various EU/EMU member countries and all the relevant sectors by
country. A full perusal of this month&#8217;s data reveals a very weak Europe
and one that is in the process of weakening sharply as well. At the
same time the topical inflation report for Germany suggests that
headline inflation is still pushing higher, something that will keep
the ECB back on its heels.

We continue to see the GLOBAL slowdown as a reaction to the
rise in commodity prices &#8211; especially oil - a gain that has taken a
toll on all the major consuming nations. The US slowdown, the global
financial tangle and the rise in oil prices are hitting the world
economies at the same time. It is no wonder that the global business
cycle is back in sync&#8230;or should I say sink?


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="12" scope="col">EU
Sectors and Country level Overall Sentiment </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">EU</td>
<td>Jul 
08</td>
<td>Jun 
08</td>
<td>May 
08</td>
<td>Apr 
08</td>
<td>%tile</td>
<td>Rank</td>
<td>Max</td>
<td>Min</td>
<td>Range</td>
<td>Mean</td>
<td>R-SQ 
w/Overall</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Overall</td>
<td>88.7</td>
<td>94.5</td>
<td>97.1</td>
<td>98</td>
<td>36.0</td>
<td>225</td>
<td>116</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>43</td>
<td>101</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold;">1.00</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial</td>
<td>-8</td>
<td>-4</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>55.9</td>
<td>144</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>34</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>0.87</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-12</td>
<td>24.1</td>
<td>227</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-27</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>0.83</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>37.0</td>
<td>212</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>-21</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>0.48</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>-11</td>
<td>53.2</td>
<td>154</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>-42</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>-15</td>
<td>0.42</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>15.8</td>
<td>129</td>
<td>32</td>
<td>-6</td>
<td>38</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>0.79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="font-weight: bold;" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>% m/m</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul 
08</td>
<td colspan="2">Based on Level</td>
<td colspan="4">Level</td>
<td style="font-weight: bold;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">EMU</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>89.5</td>
<td>37.4</td>
<td>222</td>
<td>117</td>
<td>73</td>
<td>44</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>0.93</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>-4.1%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>97.3</td>
<td>44.1</td>
<td>158</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>79</td>
<td>42</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>0.64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>93.5</td>
<td>46.6</td>
<td>188</td>
<td>119</td>
<td>72</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>0.81</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>-10.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>85.4</td>
<td>27.6</td>
<td>230</td>
<td>122</td>
<td>71</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>101</td>
<td>0.80</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>74.2</td>
<td>14.6</td>
<td>238</td>
<td>118</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>0.60</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo:UK</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>85.5</td>
<td>26.5</td>
<td>229</td>
<td>132</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>64</td>
<td>102</td>
<td>0.41</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Since 1990 except Services (Oct
1996):
247</td>
<td>-Count</td>
<td>Services:</td>
<td>142</td>
<td>-Count</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="12" class="firstcol">Sentiment is an index, sector
readings are net balance diffusion measures</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The picture on top captures the path of the industrial sector and the services sector in EMU. Both have turned sharply lower by mid 2008 after having peaked about one year ago. The overall EMU sentiment index is now in the 36th [...]

Rapid Fall Off in EU Indices - Especially for Services

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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250430B.jpg

High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: July 2008

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