Tom Moeller

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            <p>Activity in the manufacturing sector improved last month. The ISM
      Composite Index of industrial sector activity rose to 51.5 during
      September, the first month above the break-even level of 50 since May.
      Nevertheless, the improvement was modest as the reading remained well
      below last year's Q1 highs near 60. The figure beat Consensus expectations
      for 49.8. During the last ten years there has been an 80% correlation
      between the index level and the three-month change in factory sector
      production.</p>
      <p>Improvement in the component series was broad-based and led by new
      orders to 52.3. The gain in employment to 54.7 also was to its highest
      level since June. During the last ten years there has been an 88%
      correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in
      manufacturing payrolls. Lesser gains were logged by the production (49.5)
      and supplier delivery series (50.3) while the inventory index fell to
      50.5.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p>
      <p>The separate index of new export orders again improved modestly.
      However, the index level of 48.5 still indicated declines in exports and
      remained near its lowest reading since the recession's end. The import
      series was roughly stable at 49.5, still at its recovery low.</p>
      <p>With higher oil prices, the price index rose sharply to 58.0, its
      highest level since April. Twenty seven percent of firms raised prices
      while 11 percent lowered them. During the last ten years there has been a
      65% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the intermediate
      producer price index.</p>
      <p>The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are
      diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b> database. The
      expectations data are in the <b>AS1REPNA</b> database.&nbsp;
            </p>

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      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >ISM Mfg</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sep</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sep'11</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Composite Index</td>
            <td  >51.5</td>
            <td  >49.6</td>
            <td  >49.8</td>
            <td  >52.5</td>
            <td  >55.2</td>
            <td  >57.3</td>
            <td  >46.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;New Orders</td>
            <td  >52.3</td>
            <td  >47.1</td>
            <td  >48.0</td>
            <td  >51.1</td>
            <td  >56.4</td>
            <td  >59.2</td>
            <td  >52.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Production</td>
            <td  >49.5</td>
            <td  >47.2</td>
            <td  >51.3</td>
            <td  >52.5</td>
            <td  >57.4</td>
            <td  >61.0</td>
            <td  >50.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Employment</td>
            <td  >54.7</td>
            <td  >51.6</td>
            <td  >52.0</td>
            <td  >55.2</td>
            <td  >57.4</td>
            <td  >57.3</td>
            <td  >40.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Supplier Deliveries</td>
            <td  >50.3</td>
            <td  >49.3</td>
            <td  >48.7</td>
            <td  >51.6</td>
            <td  >54.7</td>
            <td  >58.1</td>
            <td  >51.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Inventories</td>
            <td  >50.5</td>
            <td  >53.0</td>
            <td  >49.0</td>
            <td  >52.0</td>
            <td  >50.1</td>
            <td  >50.8</td>
            <td  >37.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Prices Paid Index (NSA)</td>
            <td  >58.0</td>
            <td  >54.0</td>
            <td  >39.5</td>
            <td  >56.0</td>
            <td  >65.2</td>
            <td  >68.9</td>
            <td  >48.3</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
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Activity in the manufacturing sector improved last month. The ISM Composite Index of industrial sector activity rose to 51.5 during September, the first month above the break-even level of 50 since May. Nevertheless, the improvement [...]

U.S. ISM Indicates Moderate Improvement In Factory Sector

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      <p>The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for September rose to 78.3
      from an unrevised 74.3 in August. The figure was down, however, from the
      mid-September reading of 79.2. The latest number was slightly short of
      expectations for 78.8. During the last ten years there has been a 60%
      correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in
      real personal consumption expenditures. The rise in this month's overall
      consumer sentiment reading owed to a rise in the consumer expectations
      figure to 73.5, its highest since May. Countering the gain was a decline
      in the current conditions reading to 85.7.</p>
      <p>The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally
      adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300
      households. Data can be found in Haver's <b>USECON </b>database. The
      expectations figure is from Action Economics and is found in Haver's <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.</p>
      <table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">


        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >University of Michigan<br>
              (Q1'66 = 100)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sept</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Sep'11</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Consumer Sentiment</td>
            <td>78.3</td>
            <td>74.3</td>
            <td>72.3</td>
            <td>59.5</td>
            <td>67.3</td>
            <td>71.8</td>
            <td>66.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Current Economic Conditions</td>
            <td>85.7</td>
            <td>88.7</td>
            <td>82.7</td>
            <td>75.2</td>
            <td>79.1</td>
            <td>80.9</td>
            <td>69.6</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Consumer Expectations</td>
            <td>73.5</td>
            <td>65.1</td>
            <td>65.6</td>
            <td>49.4</td>
            <td>59.8</td>
            <td>66.0</td>
            <td>64.1</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
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The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for September rose to 78.3 from an unrevised 74.3 in August. The figure was down, however, from the mid-September reading of 79.2. The latest number was slightly short of [...]

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Due To Heartened Expectations

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      <b>Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal
      income fell 0.3% during August.</b> On a y/y basis, growth held up at 1.8%
      but three-month growth was slightly negative for the first time since
      November. The monthly decline reflected a steady 0.1% gain in nominal
      terms. That rise equaled the 0.1% uptick in total personal income which
      followed a downwardly revised&nbsp; 0.1% July gain, originally set at
      0.3%. A 0.2% advance had been the consensus expectation. A 0.1% (3.7% y/y)
      rise in wages followed a like uptick in July and three-month growth was a
      diminished 2.4%. Proprietors income rose a firm 0.6% (4.1% y/y) but
      interest income fell 1.3% (-1.8% y/y) along with transfer receipts, off
      0.1% (+2.7% y/y)</p>
      <p> Despite the decline in real income, <b>inflation
      adjusted personal consumption expenditures</b> <b>ticked up 0.1%</b> (2.0%
      y/y) following a 0.4% July rise. However, showing moderation was
      three-month growth of 1.4% which was half of that six months ago. Nominal
      spending advanced 0.5% (3.6% y/y) during August. Also adjusted for
      inflation, spending on goods rose 0.4% (3.8% y/y) last month lifted by
      strength in vehicle sales (10.6% y/y) and home furnishings &amp;
      appliances (6.2% y/y). Nondurables spending rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y) with
      strength in spending on apparel (3.6% y/y) but spending on services
      slipped 0.1% (+1.1% y/y).&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>
      <p>Firm spending growth in the face of a diminished income gain reduced
      the <b>personal savings rate</b> to 3.7% last month, its lowest since
      April. However, these figures remain up from November's low of 3.2%.&nbsp;</p>
      <p><b>The PCE chain price index advanced 0.4% (1.5% y/y). </b>The monthly
      gain matched the strongest since June of 2009. Nondurables costs jumped
      1.3% (1.7% y/y) with the rise in gasoline prices. Durable goods prices
      slipped 0.2% (-1.8% y/y) while services prices increased 0.2% (2.0% y/y).
      Less food and energy, the PCE chain price index ticked up 0.1% (1.6% y/y)
      as it did in July.</p>
      <p>The personal income &amp; consumption figures are available in Haver's <b>USECON</b>
      and <b>USNA</b> databases. The consensus expectations figures are in the <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.</p>


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       <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Personal Income &amp;
              Outlays(%)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Personal Income</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.3</td>
            <td>3.5</td>
            <td>5.1</td>
            <td>3.8</td>
            <td>-4.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Wages &amp; Salaries</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>3.7</td>
            <td>4.0</td>
            <td>2.1</td>
            <td>-4.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Disposable Personal Income</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.3</td>
            <td>3.3</td>
            <td>3.8</td>
            <td>3.8</td>
            <td>-2.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption Expenditures</td>
            <td>0.5</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>-0.0</td>
            <td>3.6</td>
            <td>5.0</td>
            <td>3.8</td>
            <td>-1.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Personal Saving Rate</td>
            <td>3.7</td>
            <td>4.1</td>
            <td>4.4</td>
            <td>4.0<br>
              (Aug'11)</td>
            <td>4.2</td>
            <td>5.1</td>
            <td>4.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >PCE Chain Price Index</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>0.0</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>1.5</td>
            <td>2.4</td>
            <td>1.9</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Less Food &amp; Energy</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.2</td>
            <td>1.6</td>
            <td>1.4</td>
            <td>1.5</td>
            <td>1.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Real Disposable Income</td>
            <td>-0.3</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.2</td>
            <td>1.8</td>
            <td>1.3</td>
            <td>1.8</td>
            <td>-2.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Real Personal Consumption<br>
              Expenditures</td>
            <td>0.1</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>-0.1</td>
            <td>2.0</td>
            <td>2.5</td>
            <td>1.8</td>
            <td>-1.9</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
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Adjusted for price inflation, disposable personal income fell 0.3% during August. On a y/y basis, growth held up at 1.8% but three-month growth was slightly negative for the first time since November. The monthly decline reflected a [...]

U.S. Real Take-home Pay Declines But Consumers Keep Spending

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            <p>Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2%
      (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A
      4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for <b>transportation
      equipment led the decline</b> with a roughly one-third drop paced by net
      cancellations of orders for nondefense aircraft. Orders for defense
      aircraft also were weak and posted an 8.1% (-28.3% y/y) decline. Less the
      transportation sector altogether, orders for durables fell 1.6% (-1.1%
      y/y).&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
      <p><b>Weakness in other industries</b> was led by machinery where orders
      fell 4.7% (-10.1% y/y), off for the sixth month this year. Orders for
      computers and electronic products industries also posted a 3.4% (-3.9%
      y/y) decline, off for the fifth month in the last six. A 3.8% rise (-3.2%
      y/y) in electrical equipment orders picked up some of the slack.
      Nondefense capital goods orders fell by roughly one quarter (-21.5% y/y)
      with the cancelled aircraft bookings. Excluding aircraft, orders increased
      1.1% (-3.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.</p>
      <p>Shipments of durable goods also were weak last month and posted a 3.0%
      drop (+4.4% y/y). Again, the transportation sector led with a 7.9% (+9.2%
      y/y) decline. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.9% (+2.5% y/y).
      Unfilled orders fell 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.6% (5.2%
      y/y).</p>
      <p>The durable goods figures are available in Haver's <b>USECON </b>database.
      The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.
            </p>

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        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col">Durable Goods NAICS
              Classification</th>
            <th scope="col">Aug</th>
            <th scope="col">Jul</th>
            <th scope="col">Jun</th>
            <th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col">2011</th>
            <th scope="col">2010</th>
            <th scope="col">2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
            <td>-13.2</td>
            <td>3.3</td>
            <td>1.6</td>
            <td>-6.7</td>
            <td>9.8</td>
            <td>27.1</td>
            <td>-30.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Transportation</td>
            <td>-34.9</td>
            <td>13.1</td>
            <td>10.8</td>
            <td>-19.6</td>
            <td>12.8</td>
            <td>57.4</td>
            <td>-42.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol">Total Excluding Transportation</td>
            <td>-1.6</td>
            <td>-1.3</td>
            <td>-2.2</td>
            <td>-1.1</td>
            <td>8.6</td>
            <td>18.0</td>
            <td>-25.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
            <td>-24.3</td>
            <td>4.8</td>
            <td>2.4</td>
            <td>-21.5</td>
            <td>13.2</td>
            <td>36.3</td>
            <td>-36.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding
              Aircraft</td>
            <td>1.1</td>
            <td>-5.2</td>
            <td>-2.7</td>
            <td>-3.1</td>
            <td>10.3</td>
            <td>17.1</td>
            <td>-24.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol"></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
            <td></td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
            <td>-3.0</td>
            <td>1.9</td>
            <td>-0.0</td>
            <td>4.4</td>
            <td>9.6</td>
            <td>11.4</td>
            <td>-21.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
            <td>0.6</td>
            <td>0.8</td>
            <td>0.3</td>
            <td>5.2</td>
            <td>10.3</td>
            <td>9.5</td>
            <td>-10.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
            <td>-1.7</td>
            <td>0.7</td>
            <td>0.4</td>
            <td>5.4</td>
            <td>10.3</td>
            <td>9.6</td>
            <td>-19.5</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>


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Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2% (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A 4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a [...]

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plummet With Cancelled Aircraft Bookings

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   <p><a href="/comment/120927m_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927m.png"></a>
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            <p>
      Last quarter's real GDP growth was unexpectedly revised lower to a 1.3%
      annual rate following the second estimate of 1.7% growth. Growth was
      expected to be little-changed. The revision reflected a 0.2 percentage
      point subtraction from growth due to lower farm inventories. Domestic
      demand growth also was revised down slightly to 1.4% from 1.6%.</p>
      <p>Growth in corporate profits with IVA &amp; CCA for Q2 was revised up
      slightly to 1.1% (6.7% y/y) following a 2.7% Q1 decline. Profits rose 7.3%
      last year. After tax profits without IVA &amp; CCA fell 0.8% (+14.6% y/y)
      after a 9.7% Q1 increase. After tax profits with IVA &amp; CCA rose 2.2% (4.4%
      y/y) following an 8.6% Q1 decline.&nbsp;</p>
      <p>Inventory building subtracted 0.5 percentage points from last quarter's
      GDP growth, revised down from -0.2% reported last month. Foreign trade
      deficit improvement was little-revised and added 0.2 percentage points to
      Q2 growth. Exports grew at a lessened 5.2% annual rate (4.3% y/y) while
      imports rose at a 2.8% rate (3.9% y/y).</p>
      <p>Domestic demand growth was lowered to 1.4% (2.0% y/y). Good weather and
      low interest rates helped residential investment advance at a downwardly
      revised 8.4% rate (10.4% y/y). Business fixed investment improved at a
      lessened 3.6% annual rate (9.7% y/y) while consumer spending grew at an
      easier 1.5% rate (2.0% y/y). Government spending continued to fall, last
      quarter at a slightly lessened 0.7% annual rate (-2.2% y/y).</p>
      <p>Price inflation as measured by the chain-weight price index rose at a
      moderated and unrevised 1.6% (1.7% y/y) annual rate.</p>
      <p>The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's <b>USECON</b> and <b>USNA</b>
      databases; <b>USNA</b> contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic
      Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated
      economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories.
      The Consensus estimates can be found in <b>AS1REPNA</b>.
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/120927o_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927o.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/120927p_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927p.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
        <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E7/@E701/@E701.HTM" ;>Chained
              2005 $,% AR</a></th>
            <th scope="col" >Q2'12 (3rd Est)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Q2'12 (2nd Est)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Q2'12 (Advance)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Q1'12</th>
            <th scope="col" >Q4'11</th>
            <th scope="col" >Q2'12<br>
              Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Gross Domestic Product</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >4.1</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >-3.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Inventory Effect</td>
            <td  >-0.5</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >-0.4</td>
            <td  >2.6</td>
            <td  >0.1</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >-0.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >1.2</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
            <td  >-2.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Foreign Trade Effect</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >-0.3</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >-0.6</td>
            <td  >0.0</td>
            <td  >0.2</td>
            <td  >-0.4</td>
            <td  >1.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Domestic Final Sales</td>
            <td  >1.4</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >2.2</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >-3.3</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" colspan="10" ><b>Demand Components</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Personal Consumption</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >2.5</td>
            <td  >1.8</td>
            <td  >-1.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Business Fixed Investment</td>
            <td  >3.6</td>
            <td  >4.2</td>
            <td  >5.4</td>
            <td  >7.5</td>
            <td  >9.5</td>
            <td  >9.7</td>
            <td  >8.6</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >-18.1</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Residential Investment</td>
            <td  >8.4</td>
            <td  >8.9</td>
            <td  >9.8</td>
            <td  >20.6</td>
            <td  >12.0</td>
            <td  >10.4</td>
            <td  >-1.4</td>
            <td  >-3.1</td>
            <td  >-22.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Government Spending</td>
            <td  >-0.7</td>
            <td  >-0.9</td>
            <td  >-1.4</td>
            <td  >-3.0</td>
            <td  >-2.2</td>
            <td  >-2.2</td>
            <td  >-3.1</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >3.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="grey3">
            <td class="firstcol" colspan="10" ><b>Chain-Type Price
              Index</b></td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >GDP</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales of Domestic Product</td>
            <td  >1.5</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >2.0</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >1.7</td>
            <td  >2.1</td>
            <td  >1.3</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >2.5</td>
            <td  >0.9</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >2.5</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >-0.2</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
 </body></html>


Last quarter's real GDP growth was unexpectedly revised lower to a 1.3% annual rate following the second estimate of 1.7% growth. Growth was expected to be little-changed. The revision reflected a 0.2 percentage point subtraction from [...]

U.S. GDP Growth Is Lower Due To Drought Effect

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   <p><a href="/comment/120927i_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927i.png" align="left"></a>

            <b>Pending sales of single-family homes fell 2.6% last month </b>and
      reversed the July gain, according to the National Association of Realtors
      (NAR). Sales have risen nearly one-third from the 2010 low. </p>
      <p><b>Sales drooped last month across most of the country </b>led by a 7.2%
      decline (-4.2% y/y) in the West. Sales in the Midwest followed with a 2.6%
      drop (+19.9% y/y) while sales in the South fell 1.1% (+13.2% y/y). Home
      sales in the Northeast ticked up 0.9% (19.9% y/y).</p>
      <p><b>Pending home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales</b>
      data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales
      when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The
      series dates back to 2001 and the data are available in Haver's <b>PREALTOR
      </b>database.
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/120927j_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927j.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/120927k_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927k.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Pending Home Sales
              (2001=100)</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
            <td>99.2</td>
            <td>101.9</td>
            <td>99.3</td>
            <td>10.7</td>
            <td>90.3</td>
            <td>89.2</td>
            <td>94.7</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Northeast</td>
            <td>78.2</td>
            <td>77.5</td>
            <td>76.6</td>
            <td>19.9</td>
            <td>68.0</td>
            <td>70.9</td>
            <td>76.8</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Midwest</td>
            <td>95.0</td>
            <td>97.5</td>
            <td>94.2</td>
            <td>19.9</td>
            <td>81.6</td>
            <td>79.9</td>
            <td>88.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >South</td>
            <td>110.4</td>
            <td>111.6</td>
            <td>106.2</td>
            <td>13.2</td>
            <td>98.3</td>
            <td>97.0</td>
            <td>98.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >West</td>
            <td>102.5</td>
            <td>110.4</td>
            <td>111.8</td>
            <td>-4.2</td>
            <td>104.2</td>
            <td>100.8</td>
            <td>109.2</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
</body></html>


Pending sales of single-family homes fell 2.6% last month and reversed the July gain, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales have risen nearly one-third from the 2010 low. Sales drooped last month across most [...]

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Back

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            <p><b>Initial claims for jobless insurance fell to 359,000</b> during the
      week ended September 22 versus a revised 385,000 during the prior week.
      The latest was the lowest since the third week of July. The four-week
      moving average of initial claims slipped to 374,000 last week. Consensus
      expectations were for 377,000 claims.</p>
      <p><b>Continuing claims</b> for unemployment insurance slipped to 3.271M
      (-12.2% y/y) during the week of September 15. The insured rate of
      unemployment remained&nbsp; at 2.6% where it's been since March. This
      particular count covers only &quot;regular&quot; programs and does not
      include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance
      programs. In the week of September 8, the latest figure available, the <b>grand
      total of all benefit recipients again fell to a recovery low of 5.174M. </b>The
      latest was down -25.9% y/y and was off by more than one-half since the
      peak in January 2010.</p>
      <p><b>By state,</b> the insured unemployment rate continued to vary
      greatly with Virginia (1.24%), Indiana (1.54%), Ohio (1.58%), Texas (1.63%),
      Louisiana (1.84%), Georgia (1.96), Florida (1.98%) and Michigan (2.22%) at
      the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.57%),
      Illinois (2.62%), New York (2.82%), Nevada (2.87%), Connecticut (3.10%),
      California (3.14%), Pennsylvania (3.43%) and New Jersey (3.53%).</p>
      <p><b>Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs</b> are contained in
      Haver's <b>WEEKLY</b> database, including the seasonal factor series, and
      they are summarized monthly in <b>USECON</b>. Data for individual states,
      including the unemployment rates that determine individual state
      eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific
      &quot;tiers&quot; of the emergency program, are in <b>REGIONW</b>, a
      database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action
      Economics consensus survey estimates are in <b>AS1REPNA</b>.&nbsp;
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/120927g_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927g.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/120927h_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927h.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Unemployment Insurance
              (000s)</th>
            <th scope="col" >09/22/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >09/15/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >09/08/12</th>
            <th scope="col" >Y/Y%</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Initial Claims</td>
            <td  >359</td>
            <td  >385</td>
            <td  >385</td>
            <td  >-8.7</td>
            <td  >409</td>
            <td  >459</td>
            <td  >574</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Continuing Claims</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >3,271</td>
            <td  >3,275</td>
            <td  >-12.2</td>
            <td  >3,745</td>
            <td  >4,544</td>
            <td  >5,807</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >2.6</td>
            <td  >2.6</td>
            <td  >3.0<br>
              (9/11)</td>
            <td  >3.0</td>
            <td  >3.6</td>
            <td  >4.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Total &quot;All Programs&quot;
              (NSA)</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >--</td>
            <td  >5.174M</td>
            <td  >-25.9</td>
            <td  >7.750M</td>
            <td  >9.850M</td>
            <td  >9.163M</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
      </body></html>


Initial claims for jobless insurance fell to 359,000 during the week ended September 22 versus a revised 385,000 during the prior week. The latest was the lowest since the third week of July. The four-week moving average of initial [...]

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Back

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   <p><a href="/comment/120927a_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927a.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/120927b_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927b.png"></a></p>

            <p>Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2%
      (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A
      4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for <b>transportation
      equipment led the decline</b> with a roughly one-third drop paced by net
      cancellations of orders for nondefense aircraft. Orders for defense
      aircraft also were weak and posted an 8.1% (-28.3% y/y) decline. Less the
      transportation sector altogether, orders for durables fell 1.6% (-1.1%
      y/y).&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
      <p><b>Weakness in other industries</b> was led by machinery where orders
      fell 4.7% (-10.1% y/y), off for the sixth month this year. Orders for
      computers and electronic products industries also posted a 3.4% (-3.9%
      y/y) decline, off for the fifth month in the last six. A 3.8% rise (-3.2%
      y/y) in electrical equipment orders picked up some of the slack.
      Nondefense capital goods orders fell by roughly one quarter (-21.5% y/y)
      with the cancelled aircraft bookings. Excluding aircraft, orders increased
      1.1% (-3.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.</p>
      <p>Shipments of durable goods also were weak last month and posted a 3.0%
      drop (+4.4% y/y). Again, the transportation sector led with a 7.9% (+9.2%
      y/y) decline. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.9% (+2.5% y/y).
      Unfilled orders fell 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.6% (5.2%
      y/y).</p>
      <p>The durable goods figures are available in Haver's <b>USECON </b>database.
      The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the <b>AS1REPNA</b>
      database.
            </p>

   <p><a href="/comment/120927c_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927c.png"></a>
      <a href="/comment/120927d_big.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/120927d.png"></a></p>
      <p>&nbsp;</p>


<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
        <thead>
          <tr>
            <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Durable Goods NAICS
              Classification</th>
            <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
            <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
            <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
            <th scope="col" >2011</th>
            <th scope="col" >2010</th>
            <th scope="col" >2009</th>
          </tr>
        </thead>
        <tbody>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >New Orders</td>
            <td  >-13.2</td>
            <td  >3.3</td>
            <td  >1.6</td>
            <td  >-6.7</td>
            <td  >9.8</td>
            <td  >27.1</td>
            <td  >-30.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Transportation</td>
            <td  >-34.9</td>
            <td  >13.1</td>
            <td  >10.8</td>
            <td  >-19.6</td>
            <td  >12.8</td>
            <td  >57.4</td>
            <td  >-42.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Total Excluding Transportation</td>
            <td  >-1.6</td>
            <td  >-1.3</td>
            <td  >-2.2</td>
            <td  >-1.1</td>
            <td  >8.6</td>
            <td  >18.0</td>
            <td  >-25.4</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Nondefense Capital Goods</td>
            <td  >-24.3</td>
            <td  >4.8</td>
            <td  >2.4</td>
            <td  >-21.5</td>
            <td  >13.2</td>
            <td  >36.3</td>
            <td  >-36.9</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Excluding
              Aircraft</td>
            <td  >1.1</td>
            <td  >-5.2</td>
            <td  >-2.7</td>
            <td  >-3.1</td>
            <td  >10.3</td>
            <td  >17.1</td>
            <td  >-24.5</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
            <td  ></td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Shipments</td>
            <td  >-3.0</td>
            <td  >1.9</td>
            <td  >-0.0</td>
            <td  >4.4</td>
            <td  >9.6</td>
            <td  >11.4</td>
            <td  >-21.0</td>
          </tr>
          <tr>
            <td class="firstcol" >Inventories</td>
            <td  >0.6</td>
            <td  >0.8</td>
            <td  >0.3</td>
            <td  >5.2</td>
            <td  >10.3</td>
            <td  >9.5</td>
            <td  >-10.2</td>
          </tr>
          <tr class="odd">
            <td class="firstcol" >Unfilled Orders</td>
            <td  >-1.7</td>
            <td  >0.7</td>
            <td  >0.4</td>
            <td  >5.4</td>
            <td  >10.3</td>
            <td  >9.6</td>
            <td  >-19.5</td>
          </tr>
        </tbody>
      </table>
      </span>
</body></html>


PMIs showing widespread revival of global economy

Crude oil price has returned to pre-conflict level but traffic through Hormuz still subpar

Surging orders for computers and electronics propelling durable goods orders

Next year's inflation forecasts are on the rise and above target

Disrupted global supply chains placing upward pressure on US goods prices

Construction of data centers has overtaken transportation construction in US

Elevated energy prices putting intense upward pressure on input prices around the globe

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

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Andrew Cates

**Growth Surprises Continue to Underpin Equity Resilience**
Global equity markets have proved remarkably resilient in recent weeks, shrugging off intermittent bouts of geopolitical and policy uncertainty to grind higher. Chart 1 below helps explain why: it tracks the relationship between global growth-versus-inflation surprises and world equity markets, and on that measure the recent run of global growth data has continued to surprise on the upside relative to inflation outturns — a combination that has historically been supportive for risk assets. Whether that resilience persists will depend on whether the growth-surprise advantage evident in the chart below can be sustained in the face of the inflationary pressures explored below.

260709Z1.jpg

**PMIs Confirm a Broadly Solid Global Expansion**
This week's final composite PMI readings for June reinforced the broader impression of resilient global growth. As chart 2 below shows, most major economies posted readings comfortably in expansionary territory, with India continuing to lead the pack and the US not far behind. Even the laggards in the sample are hovering close to the expansion threshold rather than falling decisively below it, suggesting stabilisation rather than outright contraction (and with the UK a notable exception).

260709Z2.jpg

**Inflation Surprises Are Creeping Back, and Bond Yields Are Taking Notice**
The US growth picture painted by Haver's surprise indices broadly echoes the message from the global PMI data. Chart 3 below shows the combined growth-and-inflation surprise index drifting higher this week, and closer inspection suggests growth is doing most of that work, with activity data continuing to outperform expectations. That is, on the face of it, good news. But it has not stopped bond markets from taking notice: short-dated Treasury yields have remained elevated in recent weeks, as stronger growth keeps alive the possibility that the Federal Reserve holds rates higher for longer or even lifts them in coming weeks.

260709Z3.jpg

**Supply Chains Are Tightening** 
Latest data show that global supply chain pressures tightened by less in June than they had the month before, likely reflecting the easing of Middle East tensions through much of the period. Chart 4 below shows that pressures troughed in the middle of last year and have been building gradually since, though June's slower pace of tightening suggests that easing had started to feed through. Still, today's flare-up threatens to undo that improvement, particularly if it affects shipping routes or energy flows through the region once again.

260709Z4.jpg

**Extreme Weather: An Old Supply-Side Risk Returns**
Geopolitics is not the only source of supply-side risk currently in play. Large parts of Europe have been gripped this week by another intense and prolonged heatwave, with temperatures in several major cities running well above seasonal norms. Extreme heat of this kind carries real economic costs: it depresses labour productivity, particularly in outdoor and manufacturing-adjacent sectors, strains electricity grids as air-conditioning demand spikes, and can disrupt agricultural output and river-based transport when water levels fall. Episodes like this have become more frequent in recent years, and while any single heatwave rarely shifts the macro picture on its own, the cumulative effect of more frequent and more severe weather events could start showing up in productivity and inflation data across the advanced economies. It is a reminder that the supply side of the global economy faces structural as well as cyclical challenges, and that climate-related disruption deserves a permanent place alongside geopolitics and demographics in any assessment of medium-term inflation risk.

260709Z5.jpg

**AI Investment: The Other Side of the Supply Equation**
Set against these supply-side headwinds is a genuinely positive structural development: the extraordinary scale of private investment now flowing into artificial intelligence. Chart 6 below shows just how sharply that investment has grown in recent years, reaching a fresh high last year. If even a fraction of that investment translates into genuine productivity gains, it could provide a meaningful long-run offset to the energy, climate and geopolitical constraints highlighted elsewhere in this week's charts. The scale of the bet now being placed on AI is large enough that it is beginning to show up in aggregate investment and capital expenditure data across the advanced economies, and it is likely to remain one of the defining structural themes shaping the global growth outlook over the remainder of this decade.

260709Z6.jpg

Global markets head into this week’s closing stages digesting a mixed set of signals. Last week's US non-farm payrolls report undershot expectations, adding to questions about the durability of the US labour market even as broader activity data have continued to hold up well. Compounding that picture, news broke today of renewed instability in the Middle East, reintroducing a geopolitical risk premium into markets just as investors had begun to look past it. Global equity markets have nonetheless remained resilient, continuing to track the broadly encouraging tone of incoming activity data (chart 1). That resilience was reinforced by a solid set of global PMIs across most major economies over the past few days (chart 2). Haver's surprise indices tell a similar story of positive growth momentum in the US, but with an important caveat: incoming inflation data have also been surprising to the upside, driven largely by higher oil prices  (chart 3). These inflation risks could persist moreover, as global supply chain pressures have picked up in recent months and today's flare-up in the Middle East threatens to add further strain (chart 4). The world economy remains vulnerable to other supply-side shocks too, such as the extreme heat gripping much of Europe this week (chart 5). Still, on the other side of the ledger the enormous scale of investment now flowing into artificial intelligence could be a genuine source of supply-side potential (chart 6).

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/0dl4LKZaL1oTC5UPIaqrA9?utm_source=generator&si=7aa69345dbfd4ac4" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe> 

Charts of the Week: Growth Holds Firm

Robert Brusca

260710E.jpg

Manufacturing output in the countries of the European Monetary Union continues to underperform. The median change for the 11 countries reporting on the table is a 0.5% decline in May following a 0.3% increase in April. However, only 41.7% of the reporters are accelerating in May, compared to 25% in April, although in March over half of the reporters had showed some acceleration, with output at 61.5%.

In May, of these eleven early reporters, seven showed month-to-month declines in output. This compares to four showing declines in April and four showing declines in March.

**Sequential trends**
Over 12 months, output is declining in four of these eleven countries: Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Portugal. Over six months, output declines in five of the eleven countries. Over three months, output declines in four of the eleven countries. Over these broader sequential periods, output is increasing in most cases; only one country, Ireland, shows consistent declines in output over three months, six months, and 12 months. However, among EMU countries, only Italy shows output expanding on all three timelines, although Sweden, an EU member country, also shows output increasing in all three periods.

Amid the output weakness in May, the quarter-to-date calculation for industrial production growth is also broadly weak. In May, seven of the eleven quarter-to-date changes in industrial production are negative. Positive results, increases in the quarter-to-date, are registered by Germany, Luxembourg, Greece, and Portugal.

The ranking of the year-over-year growth rates shows seven countries with output growth rate rankings below 50%, marking them as below their respective medians. The comparisons for output growth are taken back to 2006, a period of about 20 years.

Four EMU countries rank above their twenty-year medians: France, Italy, Luxembourg, and Greece.

The snapshot of industry in the monetary union is consistent, showing little momentum, little strength, and relatively low rankings for current growth rates; only a minority of reporters show an acceleration in growth in May compared to April. With the situation in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorating again, the outlook for industrial production has to remain guarded.

260710.jpg

Europe

Industrial Sector Remains Under Pressure in EMU

Winnie Tapasanun

260709F57.jpg

260709G57.jpg

Existing home sales unexpectedly fell 2.4% m/m (+2.8% y/y) to 4.09 million units (SAAR) in June, the first monthly decline since March, following an upwardly revised 3.7% increase to 4.19 million in May (previously +3.2%; 4.17 mil.), according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected June sales of 4.20 million units. Sales remained 36.4% below a high of 6.43 million in January 2022 and 38.0% below a peak of 6.60 million in January 2021. The June decline coincided with a rise in the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.49% in June, the highest since August 2025, after increasing to 6.44% in May, according to Freddie Mac. The sales figures are based on closings of sales contracts signed over the past couple of months.

Existing single-family home sales fell 2.4% (+3.3% y/y) to 3.73 million units in June, the first m/m fall in three months, following a 4.1% gain to 3.82 million in May, remaining 34.6% below a high of 5.70 million in January 2022. Sales of condos and co-ops decreased 2.7% (-2.7% y/y) to 360,000 in June, the lowest level since May 2025, after being unchanged m/m for the third successive month at 370,000, remaining 50.7% below a high of 730,000 in January 2022.

Regionally, June existing home sales declined m/m in all regions except the Northeast. Sales in the South dropped 3.6% (+3.8% y/y) to 1.89 million in June, a three-month low, after a 3.2% rise in May, and sales in the Midwest slid 3.0% (+2.1% y/y) to 980,000 following a 7.4% May advance; both posted the first m/m decrease in three months. Sales in the West fell 1.3% (+2.8% y/y) to 740,000, the lowest level since January, after being flat m/m at 750,000 in May. In contrast, sales in the Northeast increased 2.1% (0.0% y/y) to 480,000 after a 4.4% May gain. Notably, the South remained the dominant region, accounting for 46.2% of total U.S. existing home sales.

The median price of all existing homes (NSA) rose 2.2% (1.8% y/y) to $440,600 in June, the fifth consecutive m/m rise, on top of an upwardly revised 3.3% increase to $431,200 in May ($429,300 previously). Prices were 22.1% above a low of $360,800 in January 2023. The median price of an existing single-family home climbed 2.3% (1.8% y/y) to $446,400 in June, the fifth straight m/m increase, after a 3.4% advance to $436,400 in May. The median price of condos and co-ops, up for the sixth time in seven months, grew 0.6% (1.6% y/y) to $380,000 following a 1.0% May gain to $377,800. Regionally, overall prices rose m/m and y/y in June in the Northeast (+5.6%; +3.9% y/y), Midwest (+2.1%; +2.7% y/y), South (+1.0%; +0.9% y/y), and West (+0.8%; +0.9% y/y). All these price series were at their record highs.

Inventories of homes for sale fell m/m in June for the first time since December. The number of existing homes for sale (NSA) declined 0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 million units following an upwardly revised 4.7% May rise to 1.57 million (the highest level since November 2019). The supply of homes on the market at the current selling rate (NSA) increased to 4.6 months in June from 4.5 months in May and April, matching the highest level since August 2025. A record low in supply of 1.6 months was in January 2022.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are compiled by the National Association of Realtors. The data on single-family home sales extend back to February 1968. Total sales and price data and regional sales can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Regional price and affordability data and national inventory data are available in the **REALTOR** database. Mortgage interest rates can be found in the **WEEKLY** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the **AS1REPNA** database.

260709H57.jpg

260709I57.jpg

- June sales -2.4% m/m to 4.09 mil., first drop in three mths.; +2.8% y/y, third straight y/y rise.
- Sales m/m down in the South (-3.6%), Midwest (-3.0%), and West (-1.3%); up in the Northeast (+2.1%).
- Sales y/y up in all regions except the Northeast w/ a flat reading.
- Median sales price +2.2% (+1.8% y/y) to $440,600, a record high.
- Unsold inventory -0.6% (+1.3% y/y) to 1.56 mil. units, first m/m decline since Dec.; 4.6 months' supply, highest since Aug. ’25.

U.S. Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Fall in June from a Five-Month High

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260709A1.jpg

260709B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4, from 217,000 in the week ending June 27, revised from 215,000. The four-week average was 218,750 in the July 4 week, down from 222,500 in the week ending June 27. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 218,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27, from 1.806 million in the week ending June 20, revised from 1.814 million. The four-week moving average rose to 1.808 million in the June 27 week from 1.801 million in the June 20 week. The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27. Except for a one-week dip to 1.1% in the week of April 25, the insured unemployment rate has been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending June 20, the highest unemployment rates were in Washington (2.03%), New Jersey (2.11%), Minnesota (2.15%), and Puerto Rico (2.45%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.28%), Florida (0.35%), Alabama and North Carolina (both 0.41%), Louisiana (0.42%), and Arkansas (0.49%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.88%), Pennsylvania (1.63%), Illinois (1.58%), New York (1.52%), and Texas (1.12%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260709C1.jpg

260709D1.jpg

- New claims declined by 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ending July 4.
- Continuing claims rose by 8,000 to 1.814 million in the week ending June 27.
- The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.2% in the week of June 27.

U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Declined in the Week of July 4

260709E.jpg

The German trade surplus surged in May to €19.1 billion from €14.7 billion in April. Exports rose by 0.9% in May while imports fell by 2.5%, creating a jump in the surplus month-to-month. In April, exports increased by 0.8% while imports rose by 1.1%.

Details on exports and imports lag by one month. In April, exports for motor vehicles and consumer goods declined, while exports of capital goods and other exports rose. On the import side, there were increases in imports ranging from 2.8% to 4.3% month-to-month across capital goods, motor vehicles, and consumer goods, but for the catch-all category ‘other’ imports fell by 2.7% month-to-month.

Flows adjusted for inflation showed an increase in exports of 0.4% in May while real imports fell by 3.3%. In April, real exports were flat while real imports fell by 0.2%.

The sequential behavior of real exports and real imports show independent activity. Imports log a clear weakening, rising 0.1% over 12 months, falling at a 5% annual rate over six months, and then falling at a 10.3% annual rate over three months. On the export side, real exports rose by 2.6% over 12 months, accelerated to a 7.2% annual rate over six months, but over three months have pulled back and fallen at a 1.6% annual rate. However, export growth still exceeds import growth over each of these horizons: 12 months, six months, and three months.

Trade trends paint a darkening picture of the German economy, with imports weak in real terms and trending even weaker, while activity on the export side of the equation pops over 12 months and six months but takes a hit over three months.

260709.jpg

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to muddy the waters for the future. Passage through the strait has been sharply stopped, stabilized, revived, and now is back to being destabilized. That makes the strait a major uncertainty zone; it's hard to tell how these effects are going to play out over the coming months for German trade results and everyone else's. The deterioration of conditions in the Strait of Hormuz is now unknowable because Iran has decided to start shooting at ships, further destabilizing the outlook.

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

U.S. ISM Indicates Moderate Improvement In Factory Sector

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Jumps Due To Heartened Expectations

U.S. Real Take-home Pay Declines But Consumers Keep Spending

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plummet With Cancelled Aircraft Bookings

U.S. GDP Growth Is Lower Due To Drought Effect

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall Back

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Back

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plummet With Cancelled Aircraft Bookings