Global| Sep 27 2012U.S. Durable Goods Orders Plummet With Cancelled Aircraft Bookings
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2% (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A 4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a [...]
Durable goods orders fell by an outsized 13.2% (-6.7% y/y) last month following a lessened 3.3% advance during July. A 4.5% decline had been the Consensus forecast. Fewer orders for transportation equipment led the decline with a roughly one-third drop paced by net cancellations of orders for nondefense aircraft. Orders for defense aircraft also were weak and posted an 8.1% (-28.3% y/y) decline. Less the transportation sector altogether, orders for durables fell 1.6% (-1.1% y/y).
Weakness in other industries was led by machinery where orders fell 4.7% (-10.1% y/y), off for the sixth month this year. Orders for computers and electronic products industries also posted a 3.4% (-3.9% y/y) decline, off for the fifth month in the last six. A 3.8% rise (-3.2% y/y) in electrical equipment orders picked up some of the slack. Nondefense capital goods orders fell by roughly one quarter (-21.5% y/y) with the cancelled aircraft bookings. Excluding aircraft, orders increased 1.1% (-3.1% y/y) following two months of sharp decline.
Shipments of durable goods also were weak last month and posted a 3.0% drop (+4.4% y/y). Again, the transportation sector led with a 7.9% (+9.2% y/y) decline. Excluding transportation, shipments fell 0.9% (+2.5% y/y). Unfilled orders fell 1.7% (+5.4% y/y) while inventories rose 0.6% (5.2% y/y).
The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Durable Goods NAICS Classification | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -13.2 | 3.3 | 1.6 | -6.7 | 9.8 | 27.1 | -30.0 |
| Transportation | -34.9 | 13.1 | 10.8 | -19.6 | 12.8 | 57.4 | -42.0 |
| Total Excluding Transportation | -1.6 | -1.3 | -2.2 | -1.1 | 8.6 | 18.0 | -25.4 |
| Nondefense Capital Goods | -24.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | -21.5 | 13.2 | 36.3 | -36.9 |
| Excluding Aircraft | 1.1 | -5.2 | -2.7 | -3.1 | 10.3 | 17.1 | -24.5 |
| Shipments | -3.0 | 1.9 | -0.0 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 11.4 | -21.0 |
| Inventories | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | -10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | -1.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.6 | -19.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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