Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109b.jpg" width="353">
At an annual rate, consumer credit grew 7.7% in November. That was a recovery from the depressed 1.0% gain in October.
In a sign of weaker consumer spending, year to year the 5.2% growth in credit is down slightly from its recent peak of 5.4%. The three month change however is down sharply to 3.7%, half the growth rate of this past August.
The accompanying chart indicates just how sharply the growth in consumer spending has slowed. Sales of general merchandise, appliances and furniture (major items that are financed) declined slightly in the three months ended in October.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109c.jpg" width="353">
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of the total, grew a somewhat slower 3.9% in November versus October, but the three month growth rate collapsed to 0.7% from its peak of 6.4% in August.
Revolving credit grew a faster 12.0% in November versus October, but here again the 9.0% three month growth rate is down from the 10.2% rate of growth this past July.
These figures are the major input to the Fed&#39;s Flow of Funds accounts for the household sector, released quarterly. For the third quarter, an acceleration in consumer credit growth (as evidenced by the three month peaks noted above) was accompanied by a sharp acceleration in bank loans.
Dollars and Sense is a recent speech by William Poole, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and it is available <a href="http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2008/01_09_08.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Consumer Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>12.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-revolving</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

At an annual rate, consumer credit grew 7.7% in November. That was a recovery from the depressed 1.0% gain in October. In a sign of weaker consumer spending, year to year the 5.2% growth in credit is down slightly from its recent peak [...]

U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Up in November, Trend Down Sharply

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109b.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
At an annual rate, consumer credit grew 7.7% in November. That
was a recovery from the depressed 1.0% gain in October.
In a sign of weaker consumer spending, year to year the 5.2%
growth in credit is down slightly from its recent peak of 5.4%. The three
month change however is down sharply to 3.7%, half the growth rate of
this past August.
The accompanying chart indicates just how sharply the growth
in consumer spending has slowed. Sales of general merchandise,
appliances and furniture (major items that are financed) declined
slightly in the three months ended in October.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109c.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Non-revolving credit, which accounts for nearly two thirds of
the total, grew a somewhat slower 3.9% in November versus October, but
the three month growth rate collapsed to 0.7% from its peak of 6.4% in
August.
Revolving credit grew a faster 12.0% in November versus
October, but here again the 9.0% three month growth rate is down from
the 10.2% rate of growth this past July.
These figures are the major input to the Fed's Flow of Funds
accounts for the household sector, released quarterly. For the third
quarter, an acceleration in consumer credit growth (as evidenced by the
three month peaks noted above) was accompanied by a sharp acceleration
in bank loans.
Dollars and Sense is a recent speech by
William Poole, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and
it is available <a href="http://www.stlouisfed.org/news/speeches/2008/01_09_08.html">
here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Consumer
Credit (m/m Chg, SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>&nbsp;1.0%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>12.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
<td>7.4</td>
<td>6.1</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td>3.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-revolving</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>4.1</td>
<td>3.9</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>6.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German Orders in Surprise Spurt 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> January 9, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
German real new orders are flying high again in November after
another surprising spurt in October. After the October rise, a drop off
in November orders had been expected - quite the opposite is the
result. Orders are now growing at an annualized rate of 28% in the
fourth quarter over Q3; domestic orders are up at a 16% pace. As in
October bulk orders are responsible for the spurt in November. And a
relatively new metric tells us that German new orders from outside the
Euro Area fell last month. So, despite the spurt, it may be that the
strong euro is taking some toll after all. German foreign orders use
the definition of &#8216;foreign to Germany&#8217; not to its currency area. That
is one complication when looking at &#8216;foreign&#8217; data of any sort for Euro
Area members. Even so, the strength within the Area that German orders
imply is quite remarkable, and it is in stark contrast with other
measures that show a backtracking in confidence and in activity of
various sorts in Germany and throughout the Euro Area. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="9" scope="col">German
Orders and Sales By Sector and Origin </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Real and SA</td>
<td colspan="3">% M/M</td>
<td colspan="4">% Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>Year Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>25.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">12.0%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>32.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">15.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>-2.4%</td>
<td>18.1%</td>
<td style="color: red;">8.7%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="9">Sector
Sales</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing/Mining</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.6%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">0.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">4.4%</td>
<td>8.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.7%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.1%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Durables</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-21.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-11.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-1.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Consumer Nondurable</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.5%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td style="color: red;">-2.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">5.5%</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">1.1%</td>
<td style="color: red;">5.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Manufacturing Sales</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.7%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">0.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">3.9%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German Retail Sales are a DISASTER
in November 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> January 9, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
So much for strong German orders&#8230;. there is no carry over to
the consumer. Retail sales in Germany are a disaster. We are 10 months
away from the phase in of the VAT hike in January of 2007. That is why
the Yr/Yr decline is still so severe on the chart &#8211; the base is a pre
VAT base in Nov of 2006. It is not really not comparable to the 3-Mo
and the 6-Mo results which are both with base periods that are well
beyond the VAT hike period. Still 3-Mo and 6-Mo real retail sales
growth rates are weaker that their 12-month pace. This is not a good
sign. 
 

Two months into Q4 German real retail sales (ex autos) are
declining at an 8.2% annual rate. Nominal clothing and footwear
spending is off in the quarter at a 23% rate. November sales were a
disaster. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> German
Real and Nominal Retail Sales</th>
<th scope="col">New Qtr</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nominal</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>Year Ago</td>
<td>SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail excl Auto</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>-8.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Motor Vehicle and Parts</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food Beverages &amp; Tobacco</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Clothing footwear</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-15.1%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>-23.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail excl Auto</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-10.7%</td>
<td>-4.6%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-12.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German IP Slows, While Orders
Grow...an Accelerate 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> January 9, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080109e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
MFG output fell in November after a rise of 0.1% in October
and a flat September. Amid other circumstances this might seem a very
chilling set of numbers. With this weakness the Q4 path for IP two
months into the quarter is a pace of just 1.2% at an annual rate. It is
only the sharp and mind blowing gains in orders that keep the erosion
in Manufacturing output from seeming like more of a problem. Certainly,
of the two measures, output is more important. But orders are a promise
of output to come. Unfortunately there have been sizeable disconnects
between orders and output before. Since mid-2006 the growth of orders
has exceed the growth of output in Germany and by a wide margin. The
current disconnect is even larger than what it generally has been over
the past 18 months. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">Total
German IP </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>Quarter to-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">IP total</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer goods</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-11.6%</td>
<td>-5.5%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital goods</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate goods</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-7.6%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-7.0%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MFG IP</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MFG Orders</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>25.4%</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
<td>27.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Louise Curley

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108f.jpg" height="265" width="312"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108g.jpg" height="265" width="312">

The seasonally adjusted Halifax Bank of Scotland's Index of
house prices showed a slight rise in the price of houses in the United
Kingdom in December after declines in the three previous months. The
Index rose 1.3% from 629.5 (1983=100) November to 637.7 in December.
The Bank also publishes data on the pound price of a house. In December
the price rose to 197,039 pounds from 194.500 in November. The average
price of all houses in the U.K. in index and pound terms is shown in
the first chart.
Seasonal adjustment has only been applied to the price of all
houses. Prices paid for new and existing house and prices paid by first
time buyers and former owner occupiers are available only on an
unadjusted bases. In order to reduce some of the noise in the data we
have aggregated the data from monthly to quarterly. In spite of the
rise in house prices in December, the fourth quarter showed a decline
of 2.4% in the unadjusted data of total sales. The prices of existing
houses, however, declined 3.3% and the price of new houses rose by
5.7%, as shown in the second chart.
The average price paid for a new house in the last quarter of
2007 was 199 thousand pounds or almost 6% above the third quarter,
while the price of an existing house was 195 thousand pounds or 3.3%
below the third quarter. Prices paid for new and existing houses are
shown in the third chart. Both the first time buyer and the former
owner occupier paid 2% less on average for a house in the fourth
quarter than in the third quarter. However the first time payer paid an
average of 147 thousand pounds while a former owner occupier paid an
average of 219 thousand pounds as shown in the fourth chart.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108h.jpg" height="265" width="312"><img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108i.jpg" height="265" width="312">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">U. K.
HOUSE PRICES:HALIFAX BANK OF SCOTLAND</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 07</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 06&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M % 
&nbsp;Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y % 
&nbsp;Chg&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Index 1983=100</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;All Houses
SA&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>637.7</td>
<td>629.5</td>
<td>599.7</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>6.34</td>
<td>634.3</td>
<td>580.1</td>
<td>535.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;All Houses
NSA</td>
<td>632.2</td>
<td>628.7</td>
<td>594.4</td>
<td>0.56</td>
<td>6.36</td>
<td>634.3</td>
<td>580.1</td>
<td>535.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> &nbsp;&nbsp;
Existing Houses NSA</td>
<td>641.0</td>
<td>635.6</td>
<td>612.5</td>
<td>0.85</td>
<td>4.65</td>
<td>648.4</td>
<td>595.6</td>
<td>548.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Newly Built NSA</td>
<td>547.5</td>
<td>582.2</td>
<td>497.5</td>
<td>-5.96</td>
<td>10.05</td>
<td>550.8</td>
<td>496.4</td>
<td>462.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Standard Average Price
(Pounds) SA</td>
<td>197039</td>
<td>194500</td>
<td>185280</td>
<td>1.31</td>
<td>6.35</td>
<td>195973</td>
<td>179233</td>
<td>165310</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>Q4 07</td>
<td>Q3 07&nbsp;</td>
<td>Q4 06&nbsp;</td>
<td>Q/Q %Chg&nbsp;</td>
<td>Y/Y %Chg&nbsp;</td>
<td>2006</td>
<td>2005</td>
<td>2004</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;All Houses
SA&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>634.7</td>
<td>643.9</td>
<td>602.8</td>
<td>-1.39</td>
<td>5.33</td>
<td>634.3</td>
<td>580.1</td>
<td>535.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;All Houses
NSA</td>
<td>633.7</td>
<td>649.3</td>
<td>601.2</td>
<td>-2.40</td>
<td>5.40</td>
<td>634.3</td>
<td>580.1</td>
<td>535.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"> &nbsp;&nbsp;
Existing Houses NSA</td>
<td>643.0</td>
<td>664.9</td>
<td>619.0</td>
<td>-3.30</td>
<td>3.87</td>
<td>648.4</td>
<td>595.6</td>
<td>548.7</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;
Newly Built NSA</td>
<td>572.0</td>
<td>541.2</td>
<td>498.6</td>
<td>5.70</td>
<td>14.72</td>
<td>550.8</td>
<td>496.4</td>
<td>462.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The seasonally adjusted Halifax Bank of Scotland's Index of house prices showed a slight rise in the price of houses in the United Kingdom in December after declines in the three previous months. The Index rose 1.3% from 629.5 [...]

U.K. House Prices: Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) Indexes and Averages of House Prices

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
EMU retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% In November and are off
at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q4. The figures show the Euro Area as a
region that is still unsupported by consumer activity. While German
manufacturing seems to be still healthy (see today&#8217;s orders report) the
consumer in Europe is floundering. Sales volumes are lower by 1% Yr/Yr
and are falling at a 0.2% pace over six months. Over three months the
annual rate of decline is 4.3%. 
 

Nonfood sales are lagging the most down by 0.6% in the month
compared to a -0.4% drop for food. Yr/Yr declines for the two
categories of retail sales growth are similar, around -1%. Although the
Manufacturing data for the Euro Area have softened they show more
resilience. Still with the very strong euro and a very weak consumer it
is difficult to be too upbeat on the Euro Area&#8217;s prospects. 
 



<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="7" scope="col"> Ezone (13) Retail Sales Volume</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Nov-07</td>
<td>Oct-07</td>
<td>Sep-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Zone-13 Total</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-4.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Non Food</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Textiles</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">HH Goods</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-4.8%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Books news, etc</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Pharmaceuticals</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Other Non Spec</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Mail Order</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Non-food Country Detail:
Volume</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy (Total: Value)</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">UK (EU)</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">Shaded areas calculated on a
one-month lag due to lagging data</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="7" class="firstcol">The EA 13 countries are Austria,
Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg,
the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovenia</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

EMU retail sales volumes fell by 0.5% In November and are off at a 4.2% annualized rate in Q4. The figures show the Euro Area as a region that is still unsupported by consumer activity. While German manufacturing seems to be still [...]

EMU Retail Sales Volumes Still Sinking in Q4

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108d.jpg" width="353">
The retail price of gasoline rose a nickel last weeks to $3.11 per gallon following a seven cent rise during the prior week. 
The increase returned prices to the highest level in nearly two months. 
During that opening week of 2008, crude oil prices jumped sharply to $98.17 for a barrel WTI crude. The increase reversed yesterday, however, with forecasts that unseasonably warm temperatures in the Northeast U.S. would continue. Crude prices fell to $95.10 per barrel. 
Natural gas prices also fell yesterday, but sharp gains in December raised the wholesale price to an average $7.67 per mmbtu. Prices were up by roughly one quarter from the very warm December of 2006. 
What&#39;s Driving Gasoline Prices from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas can be found <a href="http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2007/el0710.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">Energy Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/07/08</th>
<th scope="col">12/31/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Gasoline ($/Gallon)</td>
<td>3.11</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>34.8%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

The retail price of gasoline rose a nickel last weeks to $3.11 per gallon following a seven cent rise during the prior week.

Gasoline Prices Up Further

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108c.jpg" width="353">
In the opening week of the New Year, chain store sales rose a modest 0.4% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The small w/w gain was enough to recoup all of the prior week&#39;s decline, lift sales to a record high and raise the latest level 1.9% above December after that month&#39;s 1.0% m/m rise.
During the last ten years there has been a 45% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
Still working the other way, the leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-UBS fell for the third consecutive week was down for all of December for the fourth month in the last five.
The Economy in 2008 is yesterday&#39;s speech by Dennis P. Lockhart, President and Chief Executive Officer Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and it is available <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=55128437-5056-9F12-1245D6E0C2BFFB66&amp;method=display"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/05/08</th>
<th scope="col">12/29/07</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>489.6</td>
<td>487.7</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

In the opening week of the New Year, chain store sales rose a modest 0.4% according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.

U.S. Chain Store Sales Touch a New High

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108a.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in November fell 2.6% m/m and reversed most of the October gain. The level of sales remained down 22.7% year to date.
The latest monthly figure is about one third below the peak level during the Summer of 2005. The data date back only to 2001.
These figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Dept. They measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed.
The Realtors also indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market and available for sale fell slightly for the third month in the last four. Nevertheless, the level of 427,300 units was double the level at the low in early 2005.
In the Northeast, pending home sales fell 13.0% m/m and reversed all of the prior month&#39;s gain. Sales remained 20% lower than at the start of the year. Sales in the Western part of the nation fell 2.1% m/m. In the Midwest sales fell 4.1% for the second consecutive monthly decline.
Sales in the South posted the only m/m gain with a 2.3% increase but it was only the second rise in the last five months.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver&#39;s PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market are in the REALTOR database.
Housing Woes Weigh Heavily on the Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2007/d/pdf/housing-woes.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Pending Home Sales (2001=100)&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>&nbsp;89.9</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; -19.2%</td>
<td>112.1&nbsp;</td>
<td>124.2</td>
<td>120.5&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>70.1</td>
<td>80.6</td>
<td>-19.1</td>
<td>98.0</td>
<td>108.0</td>
<td>109.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>82.1</td>
<td>85.6</td>
<td>-18.6</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>116.4</td>
<td>118.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>100.7</td>
<td>98.4</td>
<td>-19.8</td>
<td>127.4</td>
<td>134.8</td>
<td>126.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>86.6</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>-18.5</td>
<td>109.6</td>
<td>128.7</td>
<td>122.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales in November fell 2.6% m/m and reversed most of the October gain. The level of sales remained down 22.7% year to date. The latest monthly figure is about one third [...]

U.S. Pending Home Sales Down Slightly in November

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080108b.jpg" width="353">
In December, small business optimism ticked up a slight 0.2% following sharp declines during most of the year according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The latest was near the lowest level since September 1993.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two quarter change in real GDP.
Virtually all of last month&#39;s slight increase seemed to come as the percentage of firms planning to raise capital expenditures rose off of this cycle&#39;s low.
Also, the percent with one or more job openings rose slightly from the lowest level since 2003. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation between the NFIB percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls. The percentage of firms planning to raise employment remained depressed.
The percentage of firms indicating that credit was more difficult to get remained stable after steady increases through 2007.
Now was a good time the business remained near the low of the last three years.
The percentage of firms expecting higher real sales in six months again fell sharply to the lowest since 2003.
Respondents expecting the economy to improve remained near the low of the last two years..The percentage of firms actually raising prices rose m/m. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index. The percentage of firms planning to raise prices was stable at its highest level in a year.
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The Economic Outlook and the Fed&#39;s Roles in Monetary Policy and Financial Stability is today&#39;s speech by Charles I Plosser, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and it can be found <a href="http://www.philadelphiafed.org/publicaffairs/speeches/plosser/2008/01-08-08_main-line-chamber-commerce.cfm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">December</th>
<th scope="col">November</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">20007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>94.6</td>
<td>94.4</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>101.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

In December, small business optimism ticked up a slight 0.2% following sharp declines during most of the year according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). The latest was near the lowest level since September [...]

Small Business Optimism Remained Low

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250506J8.jpg

250506K8.jpg

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) in March grew to $140.5 billion after narrowing slightly to $123.2 billion in February, revised from $122.7 billion, after widening to $130.7 billion in January according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $136.7 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y) in March after increasing 2.8% in February. This was accompanied by a 4.4% rise (27.1% y/y) rise in imports which came after m/m stability in February. In Q1’25, the deficit grew to an average $131.4 billion, after rising to an average $83.3 billion in Q4’24.

The trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) widened to a record $163.2 billion in March from $147.9	 billion in February, revised from $147.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.4% (7.0% y/y) in March, after increasing 3.6% in February. The latest increase reflected an 8.2% (8.4% y/y) surge in auto exports which came after a 12.7% strengthening. A 3.5% (4.0% y/y) gain occurred in industrial supplies & materials exports which followed a 5.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage exports rose 6.6% (1.4% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five month. Working lower, capital goods exports fell 2.5% (+13.9% y/y) in March after a 4.	8% increase and nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.1% (+3.4% y/y) in March after a 2.4% gain.

Imports of goods increased 5.5% (31.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% February easing. Imports of nonauto consumer goods imports surged 27.9% (56.0% y/y) following a 3.1% February gain. Auto imports rose 6.6% (8.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Capital goods imports rose 4.2% (22.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+11.1% y/y) following a 2.0% weakening. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 12.4% (+39.5% y/y) after weakening 4.6% in February. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 4.1% (-10.2% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nonpetroleum imports increased 6.0% (34.8% y/y) after holding steady in February.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) deepened to $150.9 billion in March from $136.9 billion in February. Real exports rose 1.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 3.0% February increase, while real imports rose 5.8% (29.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% February slip.

The services trade surplus narrowed to $23.0 billion in March after decreasing to $23.8 billion in February. It reached a peak of $25.7 billion in November of last year. Service exports fell 0.9% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in February. Construction services exports rose 1.0% (37.7% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in February. Travel services exports fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) and financial exports increased 0.9% (7.3% y/y). Transport exports rose 3.1% (2.4% y/y). Service imports eased 0.1% (+10.8% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain. Maintenance & repair services declined 1.5% (+32.1% y/y) while imported transport services increased 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Imported travel services fell 2.2% (5.3% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 1.0% (13.6 y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $24.8 billion in March from $26.6 billion in February. Exports to China declined 8.2% (-10.5% y/y) while imports weakened 7.2% (-2.7% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to a record $48.3 billion in March from $30.9 billion in February. Exports rose 10.9% (14.5% y/y) while imports soared 34.0% (65.4% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to $5.8 billion from $5.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.8% (8.8% y/y) and imports rose 6.4% (9.9% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

250506L8.jpg

250506M8.jpg

- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March

250506C2.jpg

250506D2.jpg

Retail gasoline prices for all grades improved to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.1% y/y) in the week ended May 5 and reversed the prior week’s easing to $3.26. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eaed to $3.50 per gallon (-10.2% y/y) in the week of May 5 from $3.51 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $59.64 per barrel (-26.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after rising to $63.09 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $57.13 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $63.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week of May 2 from $67.92 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices improved to an average $3.09 per mmbtu (+88.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after falling to $3.00/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.26/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 following a 0.4% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 0.4% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.1% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories slipped 0.7% y/y in the week ending April 25 after a 1.2% y/y rise in the week ending April 18. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.7% y/y in the week of April 25, after a 19.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of April 25 after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.5 days in the week of April 25 from 26.4 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.9 days in the week of April 25 after three weeks at 28.3 days, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on trade developments between the US and major Asian economies. Early indications coming out of US-India trade talks seem encouraging, with terms such as “forward most-favoured-nation” for the US and “zero-for-zero” tariffs appearing in news reports — terms which, if enacted, would represent a significant win for the US. India stands to benefit greatly as well if key exports to the US, such as pharmaceuticals (chart 1), receive substantial tariff relief. The benefits could be strongly mutual if a deal also grants the US greater access to India’s large auto consumer market, particularly for major US electric vehicle (EV) producers, given that EV adoption in India remains at a very early stage (chart 2).

Turning to South Korea, discussions also appear to be progressing at a healthy pace, although details remain limited and ongoing domestic political challenges continue to hinder substantive breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the South Korean won has shown signs of stabilisation, while local equity markets have remained buoyant (chart 3). Recent trade data for April has also provided some investor relief, as weak exports to the US were more than offset by a strong performance in semiconductor shipments (chart 4).

In Japan, the race to secure a trade deal with the US is well underway, with automotive exports expected to be a key focal point given their significance to Japan’s economy and the US being a major export destination (chart 5). China, however, remains a notable outlier, with formal trade talks with the US not yet underway. Still, the US-China trade relationship continues to be the most closely watched, given its scale and potential impact on global growth and trade dynamics. While markets await China’s official April trade data, early indicators such as port activity already suggest a decline in bilateral trade flows (chart 6).

**US-India trade talks**
US-India trade discussions have reportedly been progressing rapidly, with both sides having already finalized in April the terms of reference for talks, setting the stage for formal negotiations. One early sign of favourable momentum is India’s possible offering of a “forward most-favoured-nation” clause to the US. This would ensure the US always receives the most favourable tariff terms, ahead of any other trade partner. If enacted, this would be a significant win for the US and a major leap forward in the US-India trade relationship. Another reported breakthrough involves India’s reported proposal of “zero-for-zero” tariffs on steel, auto components, and pharmaceuticals—offered on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity. If agreed, this would be mutually beneficial, especially as pharmaceuticals remain one of the US economy’s key imports from India, as shown in chart 1. On a separate note, and more recently, India’s phone exports to the US have reportedly gained prominence. With steep US tariffs on China, firms like Apple are increasingly incentivised to accelerate production shifts to India.

250506T1.jpg

Additionally, India’s proposed “zero-for-zero” tariff plan for auto parts may galvanise US access to India’s large domestic auto market, which has remained comparatively insulated due to high import tariffs. Another area to watch in the trade talks is electric vehicle (EV) imports, especially given US EV giant Tesla’s continued interest in expanding into the Indian market. That said, EV adoption in India remains in its early stages by many measures. While India has an immense middle class with future sales potential, EVs accounted for only about 2% of new cars sold in 2023, as shown in chart 2. This is well below levels seen in other Asian economies like China, or leaders in this space like Norway, where nearly all new cars sold are EVs. Challenges remain in unlocking the domestic Indian market—particularly around affordability and the underdeveloped state of EV infrastructure.

250506T2.jpg

**US-South Korea trade talks**
Discussions on the US-South Korea trade front also appear to be progressing at a steady pace, with technical talks reportedly having concluded in Washington last week. However, details remain limited, and full-scale negotiations have not yet begun. Complicating matters is South Korea’s domestic political landscape. With the country heading into a snap presidential election on June 3, Vice Industry Minister Park has said there is no chance of a comprehensive deal being reached before then. Still, both sides have committed to working toward an agreement before the expiration of Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on July 8. In financial markets, the won continues to swing but remains above its year-to-date lows (chart 3). Meanwhile, South Korean equities have been lifted by a softening in trade rhetoric from both the US and China, as well as optimism around the US-South Korea talks.

250506T3.jpg

Turning to the hard trade data, South Korea’s more complete April numbers offered some initial relief to investors. The economy still managed to post moderate export growth, surprising many, despite a nearly 7% y/y decline in exports to the US, as shown in chart 4. One of the key drivers was semiconductors, which recorded double-digit y/y growth for the second consecutive month. However, these figures likely do not yet reflect the full initial impact of the steep mutual tariffs between the US and China. Firmer indications may emerge in the coming months. By then, though, attention will likely have shifted toward the outcome of US trade talks with key partners, as the end of its 90-day reciprocal tariff pause draws near.

250506T4.jpg

**US-Japan trade talks**
Turning to Japan, there is a sense of cautious optimism, with Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa expressing hope for a US-Japan trade deal by June, following the second and most recent round of talks held in Washington last week. A key point of interest is whether Japan can negotiate an exemption from the current 25% automotive tariffs imposed by the US. This is especially significant given the importance of the US as a destination for Japanese auto exports, as shown in chart 5, and the central role the sector plays in Japan’s broader manufacturing economy. Also worth noting is a recent clarification by Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, who walked back earlier remarks and stated that Japan will not use the sale of US Treasuries as a bargaining tool. The clarification may help defuse a potential point of friction between the two sides as trade discussions continue.

250506T5.jpg

**US-China trade developments**
Turning to US-China trade developments — while progress here has lagged, this relationship remains the most closely watched, given its potentially large impact if meaningful movement occurs. Recent messaging from both sides has softened, stepping back from the fiery exchanges and tariff escalations seen earlier in April, offering some interim relief for investors. China has reportedly exempted certain US imports from tariffs, including specific pharmaceutical and industrial chemical products. However, on US-China trade talks, they remain at a very early stage, with China merely “evaluating” the prospect of negotiations with the US. This suggests we are still far from anything resembling a formal deal. Investors are now closely watching for first-round effects of US tariffs, which are expected to appear in China’s April trade numbers due later this week. Early signs point to a slowdown. For example, vessel traffic at the Los Angeles–Long Beach port remains at range lows, hinting at reduced shipments from China.

250506T6.jpg

Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Art of the Deal

250505N12.jpg

250505O12.jpg

The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 during April, after falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management. The reading indicated service sector expansion for the tenth consecutive month, although the rate of expansion has slowed significantly. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 50.2 for April.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing index released on Thursday. This index rose to 51.2 in Apri from 50.6 in March. The latest figure remains above its June low of 49.1.

Amongst the services component series, the employment index led last month’s improvement in the overall index. It rose to 49.0 after falling sharply to 46.2 in March. Higher employment was reported by a slightly improved 14.6% (NSA) of respondents while a lessened 16.4% reported a decline. The new orders index rose to 52.3 after falling to 50.4 in March. A higher 22.4% (NSA) of respondents reported a rise in orders while a lessened 15.3% reported a decline. Reporting slower delivery speeds, the supplier delivery series edged up to 51.3 in April after falling to 50.6 in March. Working lower, the business activity series declined to 53.7 after rising to 55.9 in March. A higher 26.2% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a lessened 14.0% reported deterioration.

On the inflation front, the prices index surged to 68.9 in April after easing to 62.8 in March. A greatly increased 39.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 1.9% reported lower prices. The index was increased from its December 2022 low 53.1 and stood at its highest level since October 2022.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 48.6 (NSA) in April following a decline to 45.8 in March from 52.1 in February. Just 14.8% of survey respondents reported higher exports while an increased 17.7% reported a decline. The imports index plummeted to 44.3 last month from 52.6 in March. A greatly lessened 4.7% of respondents reported higher imports while a doubled 16.2% reported a decline. The inventory change index jumped to 53.4, a six-month high. The order backlog index edged up to 48.0 in April after falling sharply to 47.4 in March. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher backlogs while a fewer 16.2% reported a decline. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests	 contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250505P12.jpg

250505Q12.jpg

- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens. 
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Higher in April; Prices Strengthen

250502A5.jpg

250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

Economy in Brief: January 2008

Jump to:

U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Up in November, Trend Down Sharply

U.S. Consumer Credit Growth Up in November, Trend Down Sharply

U.K. House Prices: Halifax Bank of Scotland (HBOS) Indexes and Averages of House Prices

EMU Retail Sales Volumes Still Sinking in Q4

Gasoline Prices Up Further

U.S. Chain Store Sales Touch a New High

U.S. Pending Home Sales Down Slightly in November

Small Business Optimism Remained Low