GlobalThe growing belief that central banks may start easing cycles within the next few months (chart 1), coupled with the increasing plausibility of a soft landing for the world economy, has fuelled a rally in financial markets over recent weeks (charts 2 and 3). This optimism has been bolstered by data showing a continued easing of inflationary pressures (chart 4). However, the main catalyst was the latest projection in mid-December from the Federal Reserve, which indicated three 25bps policy rate cuts in 2024, more than previously expected (chart 5). That optimistic market appraisal, nevertheless, raises several questions about the global economic outlook. Latest data, for example, suggest that China’s economy is still in the doldrums (chart 6). And expectations of easing cycles in several major economies next year seem somewhat inconsistent with recent communications from other central banks. If the global dataflow elicits more upbeat messages in coming weeks central banks might also of course become more hesitant to ease monetary policy.
USA| Jan 03 2024U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Improve in December
- Both light truck & passenger car sales rise.
- Imports' market share falls sharply.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 03 2024U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI Edges Higher in December
- Index is highest since September, but indicates reduced activity for last 14 months.
- Jobs reading improves but other component changes are mixed.
- Prices index declines m/m but stays on sideways trend.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 03 2024U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Continued Downtrend in November
- Openings continued their downtrend but fell only 62,000 in November.
- Hires fell 363,000, the largest monthly decline since July 2020.
- Total separations fell 292,000 with quits down 157,000.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 03 2024U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the Last Week of 2023
- Total mortgage applications dropped 9.4% in the week of December 29 from 2 weeks earlier.
- Applications for loans to purchase and to refinance also dropped in the last week of 2023.
- The average effective rates on loans ended the year lower than 2 weeks prior.
Germany| Jan 03 2024German Registered Unemployment Rises in December
The registered unemployment rate in Germany in December ticked up to 5.9% after logging 5.8% in October and in November. The registered rate has been moving up slowly throughout the year. The number of people unemployed increased 0.2% in December, a slowdown from the 0.8% rise in November and the 1.1% increase logged in October. Over 12 months, to six months, to 3 months, the annualized increase in unemployment is rising at a faster rate, as it has increased by 7.4% over 12 months, at a slower 7% pace over six months, then reaccelerated to an 8.6% annual rate over three months.
Wages in Germany lag behind the unemployment statistics and are up-to-date through October. On that cut-off date, the 3-month change in wages shows a drop at a 4.4% annual rate although wages are still up by 4.6% over 12 months. Real wages are up by 0.9% over 12 months but down at a 7.3% annual rate over the last three months. With the unemployment rate rising, there is less support for the labor market and wages are showing that weakness.
USA| Jan 03 2024U.S. Energy Prices Are Mixed in Latest Week
- Gasoline prices decline.
- Crude oil costs hold steady.
- Natural gas prices move up.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jan 02 2024U.S. Construction Spending Gain Moderates in November
- Monthly increase slows but annual rise is strong.
- Residential surges with jump in single-family construction; nonresidential building growth eases.
- Public sector construction declines.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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