Robert Brusca

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The ISM manufacturing index moved up sharply to 58.8 in August from 56.3 in July. The regional Fed manufacturing surveys have been very strong and are fully consistent with this result. This month was unusual as the U.S. employment report preceded the manufacturing ISM. In it, manufacturing employment was very strong plus the BLS labor diffusion index in manufacturing was at a cycle high. The ISM employment component is similarly strong in August. So we have agreement on this between the ISM and the BLS. But the manufacturing survey from Markit on U.S. manufacturing is like a gauge for different economy. It was lower in August and ranked over the last five and one-half years its August standing is only in about the 37th percentile of its queue of data - relatively weak. In short, it has been misleading while the ISM and regional Fed reports have been pointing in the right direction.

New orders, export orders and import orders were the only components to fall month-to month. But prices paid were unchanged month-to-month and remain tepid.

One developing theme for the U.S. economy is that the goods sector is carrying the day for jobs growth. Mining, construction and manufacturing were exceptionally strong job sectors in August while the services sector was sluggish. Manufacturing trends are swinging up while services jobs trends are swinging down. The goods sector added 70K jobs in August while private services added only 95K.

The job creating in manufacturing is a new story. Manufacturing has created over 80K jobs in the last three months in the U.S. This is as many jobs as it created in the previous 24 months. Since September of 2007, the three-month gain in manufacturing jobs has been greater than the last three months only four times. It would appear that U.S. manufacturing job creation is now a real phenomenon. Taken as a whole, the goods sector has 16% of total jobs, but this month it created 45% of all the month's job growth. It is an unusually high proportion.

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The small table below shows the various components of the ISM evaluated using several comparison schemes. In the queue of values since 1993, the ISM itself has a 94.5 percentile standing, implying that it has been this high or higher only 5.5% of the time on this timeline. Only the job component has a relatively higher gauge at a 96.4 percentile standing. The economy still is not building inflation pressure as the index for prices paid has only a 63.6 percentile standing. Prices are rising; they are above their median gain (which occurs at a value of 50 on the queue standing) but not by a lot. After prices imports and exports are the next weakest components, but they still have firm queue standings. There is no evidence that the U.S. rebound is led by trade in any way or by international forces since exports and imports both lag other components (and do so on all the gauges in the table). In fact, it appears that the U.S. manufacturing recovery is home-grown and that may be because of the President's strong language and forceful stance to dissuade US-based firms from moving operations overseas. This is one place where despite many other challenges, the President may be able to claim a clear victory. Still, time will tell if these metrics hold up.

In the discussion above, I have evaluated the ISM and its components as a queue standing among its historic data points. They can also be evaluated in the table as a percentage of average or as percentile position in its historic high-low range. All these metrics in the table show strong readings.

On balance, the ISM manufacturing index was stronger than expectations and is now at a relatively elevated position. In its history back to 1950, the index has been higher about 16% of the time, but the employment reading still has only been higher about 5% of the time. Order backlogs also are exceptionally high. The ISM is turning out some historically impressive signals. There has been some revival in the sector that is not explained by the mediocre health of the economy or by productivity. And retaining jobs and bringing them back home has been a focus of this President. This is a nice surprise on Labor Day weekend.


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The ISM manufacturing index moved up sharply to 58.8 in August from 56.3 in July. The regional Fed manufacturing surveys have been very strong and are fully consistent with this result. This month was unusual as the U.S. employment [...]

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Jumps in August

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Japan's manufacturing diffusion PMI gains to 52.2 in August from 52.1 in July. The manufacturing sector is showing growth, but it has no momentum. As it turns out, that is a theme for early PMI reports in Asia. The August reading is a tick below its three-month average and below its six-month average and only even with its 12-month average. The five-year percentile standing for manufacturing is at its 67th percentile, just inside the top one-third of its five-year queue of values. Still, the 12-month changes show that Japan's manufacturing PMI has gained 2.7 points in 12 months compared to 0.5 over 24 months so the last year still has shown some solid gains and a step up from Japan's PMI.

Japan's services sector reading still lags by one month; as of July, the PMI fell relative to June. And the services PMI's averages have been gradually strengthening over shorter periods. Like manufacturing, services have made a slightly greater gain over the last 12 months. Moreover, the services sector shows more strength overall with a 73rd percentile queue standing.

Elsewhere in Asia 
Early PMI readings elsewhere in Asia from Taiwan, Vietnam and South Korea show similar conditions to Japan's manufacturing sector. By that, I mean not robust and not accelerating. In terms of the queue standings, Vietnam and South Korea are a bit weaker than Japan; Taiwan is considerably stronger.

In terms of the outright level the PMI readings, Taiwan is stronger than Japan while both Vietnam and South Korea are weaker. South Korea, despite improving in August, is still below the 50 mark showing a minor contraction.

In terms of the various sector averages, all of the sequential trends by country are relatively flat; only Korea shows sequential improvement, but its raw PMI in August is still showing contraction.

The 12-month change in Taiwan's manufacturing PMI is comparable to the 12-month change in Japan. Both Vietnam and South Korea trail that gain. Taiwan shows a huge slowdown over the last 12 months compared to the previous 12 months unlike any other country in the table. Taiwan's 12-month gain pales next to its 24-month gain.

Outlook 
Despite some optimism about global manufacturing, there is very little that is upbeat out of this sample of countries in Asia. Only Korea is not signaling growth, but it is getting closer to showing expansion. Growth in Asia can hardly be called robust. The level of activity in Taiwan is still 'elevated' on its PMI scale but it is lacking momentum and over the last year its momentum has slowed markedly.

If Asia is supposed to be driving growth, right now it is pulled over to the rest stop. U.S. reports show growth, but the August jobs report will shed new light on that. Fresh U.S. and European inflation news shows inflation is still behind its targets with U.S. inflation looking just a bit more sluggish than had been expected. Also U.S. consumer spending is off to a modest start in Q3. Europe's data have been more upbeat, but the PMI data from Europe put more optimistic spin on growth that do the recent labor market data, for example. Optimism is only where you find it and only there if you emphasize the right reports. It is not obvious.

The reported slow progress in the UK-Europe Brexit talks is not good news. Apparently Europe is willing to cut off its nose to spite its face to teach the U.K. and anyone else with a mind to leave the EU an unforgettable lesson. The outlook for growth stands in the balance as this approach is bad for everyone. Moody's has recently let some of its forecasts tick higher, but by and large the global output picture has not changed. Still, there has been a sense of growing optimism. Will it be justified?


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Japan's manufacturing diffusion PMI gains to 52.2 in August from 52.1 in July. The manufacturing sector is showing growth, but it has no momentum. As it turns out, that is a theme for early PMI reports in Asia. The August reading is a [...]

Japan's Manufacturing PMI Ticks Higher in August

Tom Moeller

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The job market weakened substantially last month. Nonfarm
payrolls increased 156,000 (1.5% y/y) during August following a 189,000 July
increase and a 210,000 June gain. Together these two figures were revised down
by 41,000. A 183,000 jobs increase had been expected in the Action Economics
Forecast Survey. Last month's slower job gain was most pronounced in private
services. The unemployment rate nudged up as expected to 4.4% from 4.3%. The
overall unemployment rate including marginally attached and part-time for
economic reasons held steady at 8.6%. Average hourly earnings increased a tepid
0.1% (2.5% y/y). A 0.2% gain had been expected.

The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON
database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases.
The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Employment:
 (SA, M/M Change, 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jul</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >Aug Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 <th scope="col" >2014</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Payroll Employment</td>
 <td >156</td>
 <td >189</td>
 <td >210</td>
 <td >1.5%</td>
 <td >1.7%</td>
 <td >2.1%</td>
 <td >1.9%</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Previous</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >209</td>
 <td >231</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >--</td>
 <td >--</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
 <td >36</td>
 <td >26</td>
 <td >21</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Construction</td>
 <td >28</td>
 <td >-3</td>
 <td >15</td>
 <td >3.0</td>
 <td >3.9</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Private Service-Producing</td>
 <td >95</td>
 <td >179</td>
 <td >165</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Government</td>
 <td >-9</td>
 <td >-13</td>
 <td >3</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector</td>
 <td >34.4</td>
 <td >34.5</td>
 <td >34.5</td>
 <td >34.3</td>
 <td >34.4</td>
 <td >34.5</td>
 <td >34.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings
 (%)</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >0.2</td>
 <td >2.5</td>
 <td >2.6</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 <td >2.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >4.3</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >5.3</td>
 <td >6.2</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The job market weakened substantially last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased 156,000 (1.5% y/y) during August following a 189,000 July increase and a 210,000 June gain. Together these two figures were revised down by 41,000. A 183,000 [...]

U.S. Payroll Rise Disappoints & Jobless Rate Increases

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services (BOP basis) in March grew to $140.5 billion after narrowing slightly to $123.2 billion in February, revised from $122.7 billion, after widening to $130.7 billion in January according to the U.S. Census Bureau. A $136.7 billion deficit was expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y) in March after increasing 2.8% in February. This was accompanied by a 4.4% rise (27.1% y/y) rise in imports which came after m/m stability in February. In Q1’25, the deficit grew to an average $131.4 billion, after rising to an average $83.3 billion in Q4’24.

The trade deficit in goods (BOP basis) widened to a record $163.2 billion in March from $147.9	 billion in February, revised from $147.0 billion. Goods exports (customs value) rose 1.4% (7.0% y/y) in March, after increasing 3.6% in February. The latest increase reflected an 8.2% (8.4% y/y) surge in auto exports which came after a 12.7% strengthening. A 3.5% (4.0% y/y) gain occurred in industrial supplies & materials exports which followed a 5.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage exports rose 6.6% (1.4% y/y) after declining in four of the prior five month. Working lower, capital goods exports fell 2.5% (+13.9% y/y) in March after a 4.	8% increase and nonauto consumer goods exports were off 1.1% (+3.4% y/y) in March after a 2.4% gain.

Imports of goods increased 5.5% (31.4% y/y) in March after a 0.2% February easing. Imports of nonauto consumer goods imports surged 27.9% (56.0% y/y) following a 3.1% February gain. Auto imports rose 6.6% (8.7% y/y) after a 1.2% rise. Capital goods imports rose 4.2% (22.5% y/y) following a 1.1% rise. Foods, feeds & beverage imports eased 0.4% (+11.1% y/y) following a 2.0% weakening. Industrial supplies & materials imports declined 12.4% (+39.5% y/y) after weakening 4.6% in February. Petroleum imports by end-use fell 4.1% (-10.2% y/y) after a 2.9% decline. Nonpetroleum imports increased 6.0% (34.8% y/y) after holding steady in February.

The inflation-adjusted goods trade deficit (customs value) deepened to $150.9 billion in March from $136.9 billion in February. Real exports rose 1.6% (5.3% y/y) after a 3.0% February increase, while real imports rose 5.8% (29.8% y/y) in March following a 0.5% February slip.

The services trade surplus narrowed to $23.0 billion in March after decreasing to $23.8 billion in February. It reached a peak of $25.7 billion in November of last year. Service exports fell 0.9% (+5.7% y/y) after a 0.8% decline in February. Construction services exports rose 1.0% (37.7% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in February. Travel services exports fell 7.1% (-3.7% y/y) and financial exports increased 0.9% (7.3% y/y). Transport exports rose 3.1% (2.4% y/y). Service imports eased 0.1% (+10.8% y/y) in March following a 0.8% gain. Maintenance & repair services declined 1.5% (+32.1% y/y) while imported transport services increased 1.2% (1.7% y/y). Imported travel services fell 2.2% (5.3% y/y) while charges for use of intellectual property rose 1.0% (13.6 y/y).

The U.S. goods trade deficit with China narrowed to a seasonally adjusted $24.8 billion in March from $26.6 billion in February. Exports to China declined 8.2% (-10.5% y/y) while imports weakened 7.2% (-2.7% y/y). The deficit with the European Union deepened to a record $48.3 billion in March from $30.9 billion in February. Exports rose 10.9% (14.5% y/y) while imports soared 34.0% (65.4% y/y). The deficit with Japan deepened to $5.8 billion from $5.2 billion in February. Exports rose 1.8% (8.8% y/y) and imports rose 6.4% (9.9% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the **USINT** and **USTRADE** databases. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Goods deficit grows as imports surge ahead of tariff imposition.
- Exports edge higher, led by autos.
- Petroleum product imports fall as crude oil prices decline.

U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens to Record in March

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades improved to an average $3.27 per gallon (-13.1% y/y) in the week ended May 5 and reversed the prior week’s easing to $3.26. Prices were $3.37 per gallon to begin the month but remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. An earlier high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. The all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel eaed to $3.50 per gallon (-10.2% y/y) in the week of May 5 from $3.51 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined to $59.64 per barrel (-26.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after rising to $63.09 per barrel in the prior week. Prices remained below a high of $91.45 in the week of September 29, 2023. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $57.13 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude oil declined to $63.50 per barrel (-25.9% y/y) in the week of May 2 from $67.92 in the previous week. Prices remained well below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and compared to a peak of $127.40 in the week of June 10, 2022.

Natural gas prices improved to an average $3.09 per mmbtu (+88.4% y/y) in the week ended May 2, after falling to $3.00/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday’s price was $3.26/mmbtu.

Gasoline demand rose 3.2% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 following a 0.4% y/y decline in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products improved 0.3% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 0.4% y/y rise in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries eased 0.1% y/y in the four weeks ending April 25 after a 1.3% y/y decline in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories slipped 0.7% y/y in the week ending April 25 after a 1.2% y/y rise in the week ending April 18. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 18.7% y/y in the week of April 25, after a 19.0% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.4% y/y in the week of April 25 after a 2.6% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell w/w to 25.5 days in the week of April 25 from 26.4 days in the prior. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8. The supply of crude oil eased w/w to 27.9 days in the week of April 25 after three weeks at 28.3 days, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices edge higher.
- Crude oil prices decline.
- Natural gas costs rise.

U.S. Energy Prices Remain Mixed in Latest Week

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Not many respondents are showing absolute slowing. Only five this month. Only six over the last three months on average. The median total PMI score fell to 49.7 showing contraction in April from 51.1 in March. The average fared slightly better. The 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show a moderate but consistent slowing. The breadth of slowing is wide with 60.9% of survey respondents slowing over three months compared to six months.

The percentile standings show the most strength for the BRIC group with reading above 50% (that marks the median). All other groupings have standings below the 50% mark indicating that they are below their respective medians of the last four-plus years.

Over every horizon from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months, more than 50% of the respondents show a weakening (slowing) in their PMI responses.

Among the largest economies, only Italy has a composite PMI standing above its median (above 50%).

Only 9 of 24 respondents have PMI ranked percentile standings above the 50% mark. That underlines the weakness in composite conditions and the breadth of the weakness.
 
Services sectors no longer are providing the lift to offset ongoing weakness in manufacturing. The differences among countries are narrowing.

Economic conditions across countries may be narrowing for several reasons, one being that the COVID period and then the shock reaction to Russia's invasion from Ukraine put all countries on the same timeline as central banks have been leaning against the shockwaves from those 2 events. As a result of those events, inflation flared but has more recently been falling. Still, inflation continues to be over the top of targets with the European Monetary Union right now making the most progress and Japan facing more late cycle weakness with excessive inflation than other countries in the mix. More recently aggressive tariff policy the United States has put all countries on their back foot and puts everyone on notice that the future has become a lot more uncertain. Central banks that were progressing toward rate cuts now are worried about the possibility of more inflation from tariffs or from the possibility of recession from tariffs - tariffs up the ante on uncertainty as well as on risk. What we see in this month's PMI statistics is a gradual continued erosion as the perceived risk here is that things get steadily but slowly worse as firms, investors, and consumers began to pull in their horns and prepare for something bad to happen not knowing what that might be.

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Global Composite PMIs Erode

Tian Yong Woon

This week, we focus on trade developments between the US and major Asian economies. Early indications coming out of US-India trade talks seem encouraging, with terms such as “forward most-favoured-nation” for the US and “zero-for-zero” tariffs appearing in news reports — terms which, if enacted, would represent a significant win for the US. India stands to benefit greatly as well if key exports to the US, such as pharmaceuticals (chart 1), receive substantial tariff relief. The benefits could be strongly mutual if a deal also grants the US greater access to India’s large auto consumer market, particularly for major US electric vehicle (EV) producers, given that EV adoption in India remains at a very early stage (chart 2).

Turning to South Korea, discussions also appear to be progressing at a healthy pace, although details remain limited and ongoing domestic political challenges continue to hinder substantive breakthroughs. Nonetheless, the South Korean won has shown signs of stabilisation, while local equity markets have remained buoyant (chart 3). Recent trade data for April has also provided some investor relief, as weak exports to the US were more than offset by a strong performance in semiconductor shipments (chart 4).

In Japan, the race to secure a trade deal with the US is well underway, with automotive exports expected to be a key focal point given their significance to Japan’s economy and the US being a major export destination (chart 5). China, however, remains a notable outlier, with formal trade talks with the US not yet underway. Still, the US-China trade relationship continues to be the most closely watched, given its scale and potential impact on global growth and trade dynamics. While markets await China’s official April trade data, early indicators such as port activity already suggest a decline in bilateral trade flows (chart 6).

**US-India trade talks**
US-India trade discussions have reportedly been progressing rapidly, with both sides having already finalized in April the terms of reference for talks, setting the stage for formal negotiations. One early sign of favourable momentum is India’s possible offering of a “forward most-favoured-nation” clause to the US. This would ensure the US always receives the most favourable tariff terms, ahead of any other trade partner. If enacted, this would be a significant win for the US and a major leap forward in the US-India trade relationship. Another reported breakthrough involves India’s reported proposal of “zero-for-zero” tariffs on steel, auto components, and pharmaceuticals—offered on a reciprocal basis up to a certain quantity. If agreed, this would be mutually beneficial, especially as pharmaceuticals remain one of the US economy’s key imports from India, as shown in chart 1. On a separate note, and more recently, India’s phone exports to the US have reportedly gained prominence. With steep US tariffs on China, firms like Apple are increasingly incentivised to accelerate production shifts to India.

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Additionally, India’s proposed “zero-for-zero” tariff plan for auto parts may galvanise US access to India’s large domestic auto market, which has remained comparatively insulated due to high import tariffs. Another area to watch in the trade talks is electric vehicle (EV) imports, especially given US EV giant Tesla’s continued interest in expanding into the Indian market. That said, EV adoption in India remains in its early stages by many measures. While India has an immense middle class with future sales potential, EVs accounted for only about 2% of new cars sold in 2023, as shown in chart 2. This is well below levels seen in other Asian economies like China, or leaders in this space like Norway, where nearly all new cars sold are EVs. Challenges remain in unlocking the domestic Indian market—particularly around affordability and the underdeveloped state of EV infrastructure.

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**US-South Korea trade talks**
Discussions on the US-South Korea trade front also appear to be progressing at a steady pace, with technical talks reportedly having concluded in Washington last week. However, details remain limited, and full-scale negotiations have not yet begun. Complicating matters is South Korea’s domestic political landscape. With the country heading into a snap presidential election on June 3, Vice Industry Minister Park has said there is no chance of a comprehensive deal being reached before then. Still, both sides have committed to working toward an agreement before the expiration of Trump’s 90-day reciprocal tariff pause on July 8. In financial markets, the won continues to swing but remains above its year-to-date lows (chart 3). Meanwhile, South Korean equities have been lifted by a softening in trade rhetoric from both the US and China, as well as optimism around the US-South Korea talks.

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Turning to the hard trade data, South Korea’s more complete April numbers offered some initial relief to investors. The economy still managed to post moderate export growth, surprising many, despite a nearly 7% y/y decline in exports to the US, as shown in chart 4. One of the key drivers was semiconductors, which recorded double-digit y/y growth for the second consecutive month. However, these figures likely do not yet reflect the full initial impact of the steep mutual tariffs between the US and China. Firmer indications may emerge in the coming months. By then, though, attention will likely have shifted toward the outcome of US trade talks with key partners, as the end of its 90-day reciprocal tariff pause draws near.

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**US-Japan trade talks**
Turning to Japan, there is a sense of cautious optimism, with Japan’s chief trade negotiator Akazawa expressing hope for a US-Japan trade deal by June, following the second and most recent round of talks held in Washington last week. A key point of interest is whether Japan can negotiate an exemption from the current 25% automotive tariffs imposed by the US. This is especially significant given the importance of the US as a destination for Japanese auto exports, as shown in chart 5, and the central role the sector plays in Japan’s broader manufacturing economy. Also worth noting is a recent clarification by Japan’s Finance Minister Kato, who walked back earlier remarks and stated that Japan will not use the sale of US Treasuries as a bargaining tool. The clarification may help defuse a potential point of friction between the two sides as trade discussions continue.

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**US-China trade developments**
Turning to US-China trade developments — while progress here has lagged, this relationship remains the most closely watched, given its potentially large impact if meaningful movement occurs. Recent messaging from both sides has softened, stepping back from the fiery exchanges and tariff escalations seen earlier in April, offering some interim relief for investors. China has reportedly exempted certain US imports from tariffs, including specific pharmaceutical and industrial chemical products. However, on US-China trade talks, they remain at a very early stage, with China merely “evaluating” the prospect of negotiations with the US. This suggests we are still far from anything resembling a formal deal. Investors are now closely watching for first-round effects of US tariffs, which are expected to appear in China’s April trade numbers due later this week. Early signs point to a slowdown. For example, vessel traffic at the Los Angeles–Long Beach port remains at range lows, hinting at reduced shipments from China.

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Asia

Economic Letter from Asia: Art of the Deal

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The U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 51.6 during April, after falling sharply to 50.8 in March from 53.5 in February, according to today’s report by the Institute for Supply Management. The reading indicated service sector expansion for the tenth consecutive month, although the rate of expansion has slowed significantly. The index hit a recent high of 55.8 in October of last year and remains below the all-time high of 67.5 in November 2021. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 50.2 for April.

Haver Analytics constructs a composite index combining the services index and the manufacturing index released on Thursday. This index rose to 51.2 in Apri from 50.6 in March. The latest figure remains above its June low of 49.1.

Amongst the services component series, the employment index led last month’s improvement in the overall index. It rose to 49.0 after falling sharply to 46.2 in March. Higher employment was reported by a slightly improved 14.6% (NSA) of respondents while a lessened 16.4% reported a decline. The new orders index rose to 52.3 after falling to 50.4 in March. A higher 22.4% (NSA) of respondents reported a rise in orders while a lessened 15.3% reported a decline. Reporting slower delivery speeds, the supplier delivery series edged up to 51.3 in April after falling to 50.6 in March. Working lower, the business activity series declined to 53.7 after rising to 55.9 in March. A higher 26.2% (NSA) of respondents reported improved activity while a lessened 14.0% reported deterioration.

On the inflation front, the prices index surged to 68.9 in April after easing to 62.8 in March. A greatly increased 39.6% (NSA) of respondents reported higher prices while a lessened 1.9% reported lower prices. The index was increased from its December 2022 low 53.1 and stood at its highest level since October 2022.

Additionally, the new export orders index increased to 48.6 (NSA) in April following a decline to 45.8 in March from 52.1 in February. Just 14.8% of survey respondents reported higher exports while an increased 17.7% reported a decline. The imports index plummeted to 44.3 last month from 52.6 in March. A greatly lessened 4.7% of respondents reported higher imports while a doubled 16.2% reported a decline. The inventory change index jumped to 53.4, a six-month high. The order backlog index edged up to 48.0 in April after falling sharply to 47.4 in March. A lessened 12.2% of respondents reported higher backlogs while a fewer 16.2% reported a decline. These series are not seasonally adjusted and not included in the ISM Services PMI total.

The ISM Services PMI is a composite index consisting of four equally weighted diffusion indexes: Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, and Supplier Deliveries. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector, while below 50 suggests	 contraction. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM index that is inversed; a reading above 50 indicates slower deliveries. The ISM figures are available in Haver's **USECON** database, with additional detail in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Total index remains near nine-month low.
- Employment, new orders & supplier deliveries edge up. Business activity weakens. 
- Prices Index strengthens to roughly two-year high.

U.S. ISM Services PMI Edges Higher in April; Prices Strengthen

Economy in Brief: September 2017

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U.S. ISM Manufacturing Jumps in August

Japan's Manufacturing PMI Ticks Higher in August

U.S. Payroll Rise Disappoints & Jobless Rate Increases