Introducing

Tom Moeller

Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

Publications by Tom Moeller

• Global| Mar 13 2003

  Retail Sales Much Weaker Than Expected

  Retail sales in February fell 1.6%, triple Consensus expectations for a 0.5% decline. Sales in January were revised up wholly due to a lessened decline in sales of motor vehicles and parts. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 12 2003

  U.S. Current Account Deficit Improved

  The US current account deficit narrowed to $127.5B in 4Q, the shallowest in over a year. The deficit for all of 2003 of $541.8B by far set a new record and totaled 4.9% of GDP. Consensus expectations had been for a 4Q deficit of [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 12 2003

  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed

  The U.S. foreign trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in January but it still was the second deepest deficit on record. December's record deficit was little revised. Consensus expectations had been for a January deficit of $43.0B. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 11 2003

  Chain Store Sales Recovered Further

  Chain store sales rose 0.6% last week and added to a 0.2% rise the week prior according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales began the month of March 0.3% ahead of the February average. During the last five years there has been a 62% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 10 2003

  ECRI Leading Indicators Stutter

  The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) managed a slight gain in the final week of February, but it was only the second rise in the last seven weeks . Recent weakness pulled [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 07 2003

  Nonfarm Payrolls Plunge

  Nonfarm payrolls fell by the most for any month since November 2001. Consensus expectations were for a 10,000 worker rise. The rise in January payrolls was revised up moderately. February payrolls may have been depressed by the [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 06 2003

  Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Up Again

  Initial claims for unemployment insurance unexpectedly rose last week, up 2.9% from the prior week's level which was little revised. It was the third consecutive week of significant increase. Claims for all of February were 5.6% [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 05 2003

  U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Down Again

  Unit sales of light vehicles fell sharply in February for the second month. The 4.7% m/m decline followed a steep 11.5% drop the prior month. February sales were slightly below Consensus expectations for a 15.9 mil. unit sales rate. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 04 2003

  Chain Store Sales Recovered Only A Bit

  Chain store sales rose only 0.2% in the week following the President's Day snowstorm when sales dropped 0.8%, according to the BTM-UBSW survey. For the full month, sales in February fell 0.2% (-1.0% y/y) from the January average. [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Mar 03 2003

  Personal Income Stable, Spending Down

  Personal income rose slightly less in January than Consensus expectations for a 0.4% gain. The 0.3% rise was the sixth consecutive monthly increase at that rate. During the last two months, stability in income growth has been fostered [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 28 2003

  4Q GDP Growth Revised Up

  Real GDP growth last quarter was revised up unexpectedly. Consensus expectations were for a revision to 1.0% growth. The surprise was that domestic demand growth was stronger than initially estimated. Growth in final sales to domestic [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief
• Global| Feb 27 2003

  Durable Goods Orders Up Sharply

  Durable goods orders rose much more than expected last month. The gain followed a slight December decline that was revised from a slight gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% rise. The rise in durable orders caught up with [...]

  by:Tom Moeller

  |in:Economy in Brief