The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index of Business activity unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first month since October. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 51.5. The decline was similar to the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed [...]
Introducing
Tom Moeller
in:Our Authors
Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
Publications by Tom Moeller
Global| Mar 31 2003Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 28 2003
Personal Spending Flat Again, Income Up
Personal consumption expenditures were flat in February for the second consecutive month. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% decline. Adjusted for price inflation, PCE fell 0.4% and that followed a 0.2% decline in January. Despite [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 27 2003
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell
Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were lower than Consensus expectations for 420,000. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The 5.9% w/w decline dropped claims to the lowest level since the first week of [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 26 2003
Durable Goods Orders Fell
Durable goods orders fell about as expected last month. The sharp gain in January orders was revised down significantly. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline in February orders. The recent volatility in orders has been [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 25 2003
Chain Store Sales Held Firm
Chain store sales ticked 0.1% higher last week for the fourth consecutive weekly gain according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Mild weather helped sales offset the "CNN effect" related to the start of War in Iraq. The sales rise last week [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 24 2003
Oil & Other Commodity Prices Down Recently
War in Iraq generated a sharp retreat in crude oil prices. The US spot price for West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $27.50 by the end of last week from the high over $37.00 earlier in the month. Lower oil prices pulled down the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 21 2003
CPI Strong Due to Energy
The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose last month slightly more than Consensus expectations for a 0.5% gain. The 0.6% increase was the largest for one month since January 2001. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.1% (1.7% y/y). That [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 20 2003
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Firm
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell less than expected last week, down 0.9% from the prior week's level which was revised up. Expectations were for claims of 415,000. It was the second consecutive weekly decline in initial [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 19 2003
Mortgage Applications Surge Further
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association rose another 4.4% last week. The index has surged 54.5% in just the last four weeks. Applications to refinance rose 5.2% and have risen 72.6% during the [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 18 2003
Housing Starts Down
Housing starts fell more than expected last month. Total starts fell a sharp 11.0% from a downwardly revised January level. Starts had been expected to decline to 1.75 mil. units. Single family starts fell 13.7% m/m from the near- [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 17 2003
Empire State Factory Survey Below Zero in March
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey index of general business conditions fell below zero in March. The decline to -2.51 was right in line with Consensus expectations. Diffusion [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
- Global| Mar 14 2003
Producer Prices Surge, Core Prices Fall
Finished producer prices surged in February. The jump followed strength the month prior. Consensus expectations were for a 0.6% gain. Finished energy prices surged 7.4% (25.2% y/y), the most for any month since July 1990. Gasoline [...]
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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