Global| Mar 17 2003Empire State Factory Survey Below Zero in March
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey index of general business conditions fell below zero in March. The decline to -2.51 was right in line with Consensus expectations. Diffusion [...]
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey index of general business conditions fell below zero in March. The decline to -2.51 was right in line with Consensus expectations.
Diffusion indexes for all the subgroups fell and most were negative. The new orders, shipments and employment indexes each fell nearly 20 points, well into negative territory.
The index of prices paid fell sharply from the record level of February though the index level remained fairly positive.
The survey includes measures of business expectations six months ahead. This diffusion index for general business conditions fell sharply for the sixth consecutive month. The index level has only been lower in one month when it was negative in September 2001. Expectations for prices paid in six months fell to a still high 13.26.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey is a monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
Like the Philadelphia Fed Index of General Business Conditions, the Empire State Business Conditions Index reflects answers to an independent survey question, not the components.
For the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey report, click here.
| Empire State Manufacturing Survey | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| General business conditions (diffusion index) | -2.51 | 1.13 | 6.11 | 7.07 | -13.81 |
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2003
The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index fell sharply in March. The one month drop in the index was roughly the same as the decline in October 2001 and dropped the index to its lowest since November of that year.
Surveys of market conditions for current as well as expected sales in six months both fell sharply.
Traffic of prospective buyers fell sharply for the second month. This survey was taken after the President's Day snowstorm.
The NAHB index is a diffusion index based on a survey of builders. Readings above 50 signal that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
For a description of the housing market index from the National Association of Home Builders, visit the NAHB website.
| Nat'l Association of Home Builders | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index | 52 | 62 | 60 | 61 | 56 | 62 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
