Global| Mar 13 2003Retail Sales Much Weaker Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Retail sales in February fell 1.6%, triple Consensus expectations for a 0.5% decline. Sales in January were revised up wholly due to a lessened decline in sales of motor vehicles and parts. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts [...]
Retail sales in February fell 1.6%, triple Consensus expectations for a 0.5% decline. Sales in January were revised up wholly due to a lessened decline in sales of motor vehicles and parts.
Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts dealers fell 1.0% versus Consensus expectations for a 0.1% decline. That decline was in spite of a 2.7% jump in gasoline station sales.
Motor vehicle dealers' sales slumped 3.4% following the prior month's 2.6% drop. Unit sales of light vehicles fell 4.7% last month to 15.45 mil.
Excluding autos and gasoline, retail sales plunged 1.4% (+1.9% y/y), the most since September 2001. Sales likely were depressed by the President's Day snowstorm.
Furniture, home furnishing and electronics store sales fell 1.0% (-1.2% y/y), the fourth decline in five months. Furniture sales fell 1.6% (-1.5% y/y) following a lessened decline in January. Sales at electronics and appliance stores fell 0.5% (-0.8% y/y).
Sales at general merchandise stores rose 1.2% (3.7% y/y) following a little-revised 0.5% January gain.
Apparel store sales rose plunged 3.6% (-1.5% y/y).Through January, apparel prices in the CPI were down 2.0% y/y including a 0.9% January decline.
Sales of building materials and garden equipment fell 7.5% (-1.9% y/y).
| Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Sales & Food Services | -1.6% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.7% |
| Excluding Autos | -1.0% | 1.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 7.3% |
by Tom Moeller March 13, 2003
Prices for imported commodities rose 1.3% last month, in line with Consensus expectations. Strong January gains in both petroleum and nonpetroleum import prices were revised slightly up.
Petroleum import prices surged for the third consecutive month. Just yesterday, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude rose to $37.83/bbl. versus $35.87/bbl averaged in February. These prices hit a monthly average of $35.92 in July 1990.
Nonpetroleum import prices rose for the third consecutive month, however component increases in February failed to indicate strength. Prices of imported capital goods rose 0.1% (-1.6% y/y) and have changed little since October. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.1% for the third month (-0.2% y/y). Imported motor vehicle prices rose 0.1% (+0.3% y/y). Imported food prices fell 0.7% following a sharp January rise.
Export prices rose a firm 0.4% for the second consecutive month led by strength in nonagricultural (1.5% y/y) commodities.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA) | Feb | Jan | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 1.3% | 1.6% | 7.0% | -2.5% | -3.5% | 6.5% |
| Petroleum | 8.2% | 13.3% | 75.0% | 2.9% | -17.2% | 66.5% |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.6% | -2.4% | -1.5% | 1.0% |
| Export - All Commodities | 0.4% | 0.4% | 2.2% | -1.0% | -0.8% | 1.6% |
by Tom Moeller March 13, 2003
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell as expected last week, down 3.4% from the prior week's level which was revised up.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 419,750, up 6.7% y/y. During the last ten years there has been a 72% correlation (inverse) between the level of initial claims and the three month growth in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 0.4% following a 4.2% gain the prior week which was revised down.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.8% from the prior week's level that was revised down.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 3/08/03 | 3/01/03 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 420.0 | 435.0 | 5.3% | 405.0 | 405.8 | 299.8 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,496 | -1.3% | 3,588 | 3,021 | 2,114 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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