On the whole, there is little changed in the IFO survey this month. As the headline reports, current conditions do weaken slightly month-to-month and expectations improve. The rankings that are done on a relatively short horizon to [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Oct 25 2019IFO Is Mixed, GfK Is Weakening and the ECB Forecasters Are a Pessimistic Lot
- Global| Oct 24 2019
European Growth Stands on the Brink of Extinction As EMU Area PMIs Show Fading Momentum
The EMU PMI preliminary reading ticked up in October from the actual PMI level in September. But at 50.2, the space between the actual level of activity on the PMI and the 'no growth' line of demarcation (50.0) is exceptionally thin. [...]
- Global| Oct 23 2019
French industry Climate Hits Its Lowest Reading Since March 2015
The climate gauge for French industry fell to 99.4 in October from 101.6 in September, marking its lowest point since March 2015. French manufacturing claimed for a plateau of readings in early-2015 to a peak at 113.5 in January 2018. [...]
- Global| Oct 22 2019
U.K. Industrial Trends Survey CBI- Implications for Brexit?
The Brexit process has been taking a toll on the performance of industrial orders in the United Kingdom. But the situation is only getting progressively worse and the worsening is becoming more extreme. Net orders fell to a -37 [...]
- Global| Oct 21 2019
Japan's Trade Flows Wind Down... Will the BOJ Have to Respond?
Japan's trade data showed a gain in both exports and imports in September, but both flows are contracting year-over-year. However, there is a lot of price weakness because of weak energy prices and in real terms year-on-year exports [...]
- Global| Oct 18 2019
The EMU Current Account Surplus Expands
The EMU current account expanded to 26.6 billion euros in August from 21.6 billion euros in July. The trade surplus expanded, the balance on manufacturing trade moved to a larger surplus and the balance on nonmanufacturing trade also [...]
- Global| Oct 17 2019
U.K. Retail Sales Volumes Are Nearly Flat on the Month
U.K. retail sales in September fell by 0.2% as the volume index ticked higher by 0.1%. Nominal sales volumes with a 50.7 percentiles are just a nudge above their median while sales volume growth over the past year at 6.3% has a 59.9 [...]
- Global| Oct 16 2019
The Grip of Weakness Or the Gripe of Slow Growth?
The headlines European auto sales fell sharply in September by 20.2% month-to-month but since they fell by 40% month-to-month one year ago in September; the year-over-year pace has accelerated to a 19.7% gain. That kind of volatility [...]
- Global| Oct 15 2019
ZEW Assessments of Conditions and Growth Remain Weak and Troubling
Growth is precarious; don't be nefarious ZEW experts are only one group with a negative and cautionary outlook. In its annual report, the IMF blamed the global slowdown on (1) trade fights, (2) Brexit uncertainty, and (3) other [...]
- Global| Oct 11 2019
German Price Trends Are Affirmed at a Slow Steady Pace; Germany Policy Desires and Demands Remain Restrictive
Germany is renowned for its aversion to inflation. It suffered hyper-inflation in the 1920s and this experience made an indelible mark on the German psyche. That experience was extreme. And it has left Germany averse to even a whiff [...]
- Global| Oct 10 2019
German Trade Flows Continue to Wind Down
In today's trade report, Germany logged a drop in exports of 1.8% month-to-month and of -1.1% year-on-year for August. German imports edged higher by 0.5% month-to-month while falling by 1% year-on-year. Germany's trade deficit fell [...]
- Global| Oct 09 2019
BOF Survey Weakens
The BoF survey indicator fell to 96.0 in September from 98.9 in August. With the survey in hand, the Bank of France is looking for Q3 GDP to gain 0.3%, the same as its previous estimate. However, the survey indicator has only a 27th [...]
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