However, the signal for recession is not only a weakening in the LEI but also in the coincident index of economic indicators (COIN). The COIN is weakening only by a very small amount and at a very moderate pace, in effect blunting the [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Apr 19 2007U.S. Leading Indicator Weak
- Global| Apr 19 2007
U.S. Leading Indicator Weak
However, the signal for recession is not only a weakening in the LEI but also in the coincident index of economic indicators (COIN). The COIN is weakening only by a very small amount and at a very moderate pace, in effect blunting the [...]
- Global| Apr 17 2007
U.S. Housing Starts Hit a Plateau
We plot the trends by region to show the common patterns. Each region shows a long down slope reflecting the lasting weakness in housing across the nation. But then most regions show some stability - or at least a hint of it. There is [...]
- Global| Apr 17 2007
U.S. IP is Up But Still is a Mixed Up Sector
The chart on the left shows the trends for output by main manufacturing sector. As consumer output has steadied and strengthened, the business sector has been unraveling. This is an unpleasant picture and has been quite unexpected. We [...]
- Global| Apr 17 2007
U.S. CPI Gives Markets a Breath of Pretty Fresh Air
The 0.1% increase in the CPI in March (annual rate of 0.7%) is just what the CPI needed after back to back monthly increases of 0.23% but, after two such bad reports, this good one can only take the edge off bad trends; it cant by [...]
- Global| Apr 17 2007
U.S. CPI Gives Markets a Breath of Pretty Fresh Air
The 0.1% increase in the CPI in March (annual rate of 0.7%) is just what the CPI needed after back-to-back monthly increases of 0.3% and 0.2%, but after two such bad reports, this good one can only take the edge off bad trends; it [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2007
Euro Area Inflation Shows a Prickly Side in March
The EU-13 headline HICP rose sharply and so did the core measure in March. Goods prices had all of the momentum, as services prices were dead flat in the month. As for broad trends, the HICP and the HICP Core for the EU-13 shows [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2007
U.S. Inventory Growth Stays Low as Sales Pick Up -- But Not Everywhere
For business overall, the Inventory/Sales ratio (I/S ratio) has roughly stabilized above its recent low and slightly off peak. This has been achieved by reductions in the pace of sales and in the pace of inventory accumulation. The [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2007
U.S. Retail Sales Show Unexpected True Strength for March and in Q1
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, showed an increase of [...]
- Global| Apr 16 2007
U.S. Retail Sales Show Unexpected True Strength for March and in Q1
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, showed an increase of [...]
- Global| Apr 13 2007
U.S. Trade Trends Fit of a Friday the 13th
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index has lost 11.6 points through mid-April to 85.3 from its January peak of 96.9 (Q1 1966 = 100). The reading of current conditions stands at 102.4, down from 111.3 in January, while [...]
- Global| Apr 12 2007
U.S. Export and Import Prices: No Excitement but Uneven Trends
UK trade data came out today for February, with the goods balance, -£6.8 billion, somewhat larger than the -£6.5 billion expected in at least two forecast surveys. Exports eased very slightly to -£18.4 billion from -£18.5 billion in [...]
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