Contraction is not what China has been seeking China's manufacturing gauge last showed a contraction 2.5 years ago. And apart from one observation in February 2016, the headline PMI was last lower than its current reading in August [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Dec 31 2018China Manufacturing Gauge Reads 'Contraction' for First Time in 2.5 Years
- Global| Dec 28 2018
German Inflation Calms After a Year of Hullabaloo
Germany's HICP fell by 0.3% in December. In Spain, the HICP fell by 0.5%. German ex-energy inflation rose by only 0.1% in December after a 0.1% decline in November. Where's the beef? The ECB has been under a steady drumbeat of [...]
- Global| Dec 27 2018
Confidence in Finland Begins to Show Some Unevenness
Consumer confidence in Finland has been steadily slipping. It remains relatively strong, but momentum has definitely soured. The levels for confidence across the various categories are quite mixed. Confidence values are ranked on [...]
- Global| Dec 26 2018
As 2018 Ends, Japan's Inflation Is Going Nowhere
Japan has been trying to restore modest inflation to its environment for a long time. The Bank of Japan runs a dedicated policy of pegging the 10-year JGB rate to zero, of pinning short rates below zero and of pumping up its balance [...]
- Global| Dec 21 2018
GfK Consumer Climate Is Unchanged Month-to-Month
GfK provides a forward-looking peek at German consumer confidence. Its estimate for January sees confidence at the same level as in December at an index reading of 10.4. This reading is in the 91st percentile of all readings since [...]
- Global| Dec 20 2018
U.K. Retail Sales Advance on Strong 'Black Friday' Sales, But Weakness Has Not Been Reversed
U.K. retail sales in November were bolstered by solid 'Black Friday' sales as the holiday selling period kicked off. Despite the November jolt in sales that reverses two straight months of declines, U.K. retail sales are still [...]
- Global| Dec 19 2018
Japan's Trade Trends Sour
Japan's trade trends continue to sour with a widening deficit, weakening exports and strong imports. Year-on-year goods exports are only technically rising with a ‘gain' of 0.2% over 12 months, hardly more than zero. Imports of goods, [...]
- Global| Dec 18 2018
German IFO Gauge Is Weaker Than Expected in December
The widely watched German IFO gauge weakened noticeably in December. Most IFO readings deteriorated. The exceptions are easier to denote than listing the ones that obeyed the rule. Construction overall and current conditions were flat [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2018
EMU Trade Shows Some Trade Flow Rebound
Trade flows are rebounding on differing dynamics in the euro area. The aggregate results (see Chart) show year-on-year flows sharply higher in October compared to the previous month's rate of growth. Monthly changes show solid gains [...]
- Global| Dec 13 2018
EMU Inflation Falls Back into Place
The ECB targets inflation of just under 2%. The ECB claims (without any proof that I am sure of…) that inflation that is below but close to 2% allows the economy to reap maximum benefits. This month the HICP is up at 2% or 1.96% if we [...]
- Global| Dec 12 2018
EMU Area IP Is Slowing But Still Growing; IP Makes Modest Rebound
EMU IP (total excluding construction) gained 0.2% in October after a 0.6% decrease in September. However, IP had gained strongly in August and that has helped to drive the three-month rate of growth to a 3.5% annual pace and to [...]
- Global| Dec 11 2018
ZEW Assessments Shift and Weaken in December
The 'text' table below summarizes the shifts in the ZEW assessments for December. Presented in this from with the magnitudes stripped out the month-to-month change in the assessments is starkly clear. • The economic situation has [...]
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