Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060814a.jpg" width="353">
As noted by Randy Gernaat last Friday, reports of growth in several European nations confirm analyst&#39;s expectations of good growth in Europe in the second quarter. Today&#39;s reports for Spain and Germany reinforced this view. Both Spain and Germany reported growth of 0.9% for the second quarter.
By now Eurostat has enough data from the various countries to issue Flash Estimates for the Euro Zone, as a whole, and for the 25 members of the European Union. Flash Estimates of GDP growth have been available from the second quarter of 2002 to date for the Euro Zone and from the second quarter of 2003 for the Euro 25. The Flash Estimates of Growth for the two areas are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060814b.jpg" width="353">
Growth for the entire Euro Zone is now estimated at 0.9% up from 0.6% in the first quarter. At an annual rate of increase, the measure used in the United States%, Euro Zone growth was 3.6% in the second quarter, compared with the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.5% for the U. S. Growth of GDP in the Euro Zone and in the U. S. are compared in the second chart.
The Euro 25 are also estimated to have grown 0.9% in the second quarter compared with 0.7% in the first quarter.. (In addition to the 12 countries of the Euro Zone, the Euro 25 includes, the U. K., Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta.)
Also published today were The European Commission&#39;s forecasts of the Euro Zone&#39;s rate of growth for the next three quarters. On the basis of their dynamic factor model for quarterly GDP growth the Commission forecasts a range of GDP growth in the third quarter of 0.5% to 0.9%, in the fourth quarter, 0.4% to 0.9% and in the first quarter of 2007, 0.2% to 0.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/EUROSTAT/@U2/@U218/@U218.HTM">Quarter-to-Quarter Change in GDP</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp; 06</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 06</th>
<th scope="col"></th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Germany&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.16</td>
<td>1.10</td>
<td>-0.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td></td>
<td>3.43</td>
<td>3.09</td>
<td>3.00</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Zone</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.40</td>
<td>1.33</td>
<td>0.79</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EU 25</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td></td>
<td>1.69</td>
<td>2.26</td>
<td>1.27</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Zone Forecast</td>
<td>Q3 06</td>
<td>Q4 06</td>
<td>Q1 07</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">High</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.8</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Low</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>0.4</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.65</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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As noted by Randy Gernaat last Friday, reports of growth in several European nations confirm analyst's expectations of good growth in Europe in the second quarter. Today's reports for Spain and Germany reinforced this view. Both Spain [...]

European Commission Predicts Strong GDP Growth in the Euro Zone to Continue

Randy Gernaat

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811g.jpg" width="353">
This past week has brought several additional preliminary releases of economic growth in Europe for the second quarter - mostly confirming analysts&#39; expectations that growth would remain strong in Q2. Preliminary Dutch GDP, released yesterday, showed an increase of 1% over Q1 2006, its strongest showing since Q1 2004. Growth in the Netherlands was helped by strong exports and household consumption, particularly of durable consumer goods. 
A flash estimate of French GDP, released today, showed the French economy booming in the second quarter. The French national statistical office (INSEE) estimated economic growth in France was up by between 1.1% and 1.2% over the first quarter of 2006 - much higher than many analysts were expecting. While the first release of expenditure components will not be released by INSEE until August 22nd, it seems clear that household consumption continues to be the clear driver of economic growth in France. INSEE&#39;s latest household consumption release for June showed French consumer spending up 1.7% over May and up 1.5% for the second quarter as a whole. With the strong pickup in growth in the German economy, French exports have also posted strong readings for the second quarter. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811h.jpg" width="353"> 
Preliminary Italian GDP figures for Q2 released today by the Italian national statistical office (Istat) showed a drop in growth from Q1. Istat estimates that the Italian economy grew by just 0.5% over Q1 after growing by 0.7% in the first quarter of this year. 
The Office for National Statistic&#39;s (ONS) preliminary GDP release from 3 weeks ago showed UK economic growth up slightly in Q2 at 0.8%. The first estimate of economic growth in Germany will be released next Monday, the 14th of August. Analysts expect German growth to come in much higher than the 0.4% growth recorded in Q1 of this year - pushed in large part by stronger domestic demand related to the World Cup. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Gross Domestic Product (Period-to-Period % Change)</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2006&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Netherlands</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.53%</td>
<td>1.95%</td>
<td>0.34%</td>
<td>0.08%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>1.1-1.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.20%</td>
<td>2.03%</td>
<td>1.13%</td>
<td>1.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Italy</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.11%</td>
<td>0.88%</td>
<td>0.11%</td>
<td>0.34%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">United Kingdom</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>1.86%</td>
<td>3.26%</td>
<td>2.67%</td>
<td>2.06%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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This past week has brought several additional preliminary releases of economic growth in Europe for the second quarter - mostly confirming analysts' expectations that growth would remain strong in Q2. Preliminary Dutch GDP, released [...]

European Countries' GDP Posting Strong Q2 Gains as Expected

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811e.jpg" width="353">
Total business inventories in June rose 0.8% in line with consensus expectations after a 1.1% upward revised gain in May. June business sales edged up only 0.2% from a 1.6% rate in the prior month. The inventory/sales ratio moved up to 1.26 from its low in May of 1.25. 
Retail inventories increased 0.9% (5.8% Y/Y) after an unrevised 1.6% jump in May. The stocks at motor vehicles and parts dealers surged by 1.7% (9.4% Y/Y) in June, while excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.5% (4.1% Y/Y). Furniture inventories moved up by 0.6% (4.5% Y/Y), while building materials inventories grew by 0.5% (7.8% Y/Y). Inventories at food and beverage stores and at clothing stores each rose 0.4%.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811f.jpg" width="353"> 
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% (8.1% Y/Y) in June after a 0.9% gain in May. June petroleum inventories leveled off (-0.1%) after jumping 6.8% in May, but were still 35.8% higher than a year ago. Durables rose 0.5% (8.4% Y/Y) while nondurables were up 1.1 % (7.4% Y/Y). 
Factory inventories rose 0.8% (5.5% Y/Y) in June. May inventories were revised up to a 0.7% gain from the earlier estimate of a slight dip.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>8.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total business inventories in June rose 0.8% in line with consensus expectations after a 1.1% upward revised gain in May. June business sales edged up only 0.2% from a 1.6% rate in the prior month. The inventory/sales ratio moved up [...]

U.S. Business Inventories Gain

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811d.jpg" width="353">
Total import prices were up 0.9% in July about matching consensus expectations for an increase of 0.8%.
Less petroleum, import prices were down 0.10% from the previous month led by a 0.9% drop in import prices of nonoil industrial supplies and materials after three consecutive months of increases. Lower import prices of nonferrous metals, natural gas and building materials contributed to the decline in prices of nonoil industrial supplies and materials although higher import prices of chemicals and finished metals offset some of the decline.
Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.44% y/y) while prices for nonauto consumer goods were down 0.1% from the previous month and unchanged from the previous year. 
Prices of petroleum imports increased 4.7% in July following a 1.4% decline in June. Brent crude oil prices jumped to $73.77 per barrel in July from a June average of $68.56.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811c.jpg" width="353">
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.
Export prices were up 0.4% in July led by increases in export prices of both agricultural and nonagricultural commodities.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>29.6%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total import prices were up 0.9% in July about matching consensus expectations for an increase of 0.8%. Less petroleum, import prices were down 0.10% from the previous month led by a 0.9% drop in import prices of nonoil industrial [...]

U.S. Import Prices Up 0.9%

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811b.jpg" width="353">
US retail sales in July increased 1.4% from the previous month beating consensus expectations of 0.8%. Nonauto retail sales were also larger than expected, increasing 1.0% on a monthly basis. Consensus expectations for nonauto retail sales had been for a 0.5% increase in sales last month.
Leading the increase was sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers which rose 3.06% in July reversing the previous month&#39;s sales decline of 2.48%.
Building material sales jumped 1.85% (10.89% y/y) after three consecutive months of decline.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060811a.jpg" width="353">
Sales at gasoline stations went up 2.55% (19.23% y/y) boosted by an increase in gasoline prices from an average of $2.89 per gallon in June to $2.98 per gallon in July.
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 1.26% from the previous month and 3.32% from a year ago.
Sales of discretionary items were also higher last month. Sales of furniture, electronics &amp; appliances increased 1.18% (8.89% y/y) after a 0.8% gain during June. General merchandise stores rose 0.3% (5.05% y/y) while apparel store sales rose 0.7% (7.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) were up 2.05% (15.6% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>1.40%</td>
<td>-0.40%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.98%</td>
<td>0.13%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

US retail sales in July increased 1.4% from the previous month beating consensus expectations of 0.8%. Nonauto retail sales were also larger than expected, increasing 1.0% on a monthly basis. Consensus expectations for nonauto retail [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Larger than Expected

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060810e.jpg" width="353">
The U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $33.2 billion in July, somewhat better than consensus expectations of $44 billion. The July shortfall brought the fiscal year 2006 ten-month total deficit to $239.7 billion compared with a deficit of $302.8B for the same period in FY2005. The budget deficit for the full FY2006 was estimated last month at $295.8B by the Office of Management and Budget in its Mid-Session Review.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060810d.jpg" width="353">
Growth in FYTD 2006 net revenues versus the first ten months of FY2005 was 12.8%. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) were 14.6% higher FYTD as withheld taxes rose 9.0% and non-withheld taxes soared 21.6%. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) rose a strong 26.9% and estate and gift taxes increased by 15.3%.
U.S. net outlays rose 7.8% FYTD compared with the first ten months of FY 2005. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) was up 5.8%. Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) advanced 12.7% and social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 5.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E106021.HTM">US Government Finance</a> &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2005</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>-$33.2B</td>
<td>$20.5B</td>
<td>-$53.4B (7/05)</td>
<td>-$318.3B</td>
<td>-$412.7B</td>
<td>-$377.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Revenues</td>
<td>$159.8B</td>
<td>$264.4B</td>
<td>+12.4%</td>
<td>+14.5%</td>
<td>+5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Outlays</td>
<td>$193.0B</td>
<td>$243.9B</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>+7.8%</td>
<td>+6.2%</td>
<td>+7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The U.S. federal government ran a budget deficit of $33.2 billion in July, somewhat better than consensus expectations of $44 billion. The July shortfall brought the fiscal year 2006 ten-month total deficit to $239.7 billion compared [...]

July U.S. Budget Deficit Better Than Expected

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The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved slightly in June to $64.8 billion from a revised $65.0 billion in May. Consensus expectations had been for a $65.7 billion deficit in June.
Total exports rose 2.0% in June (+14.0% y/y) after a downward revised 2.1% gain in May, while imports were 1.2% higher in June (+12.9% y/y) after an upward revised rise of 2.3% in the previous month.
The value of goods exports was $86.6 billion (+3.0% in June) with the largest increases in capital goods (+2.6%), industrial supplies and materials (+3.2%) and automotive vehicles and parts (+4.7%). June imports of goods rose 1.2% from May to $156.9 billion with gains in consumer goods (+3.4%), and in automotive vehicles and parts (+5.8%). Decreases were evident in imports of industrial supplies and materials (-1.2%) and in capital goods (-0.3%).<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060810c.jpg" width="353">
While the goods deficit decreased by $0.7 billion to $70.4 billion in June, the services surplus was $0.5 billion lower than in May at $5.6 billion. Services exports for the month (mostly in travel and other private services) were down by $0.2 billion and imports of services advanced $0.3 billion (largely in royalties, license fees and passenger fares.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with China rose to $19.7 billion in June (the third highest on record) from $17.7 billion in May. The deficit with Mexico increased $0.6 billion to surpass $6 billion for the first time.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EE/@EE01/@EE01.HTM"> Foreign Trade&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jun</th>
<th scope="col">May</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Trade Deficit</td>
<td>$64.8B</td>
<td>$65.0B</td>
<td>$58.4B (6/05)</td>
<td>$716.7B</td>
<td>$611.3B</td>
<td>$494.9B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>+2.0%</td>
<td>+2.1%</td>
<td>+14.0%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Imports - Goods &amp; Services</td>
<td>+1.2%</td>
<td>+2.3%</td>
<td>+12.9%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>16.7%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
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The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved slightly in June to $64.8 billion from a revised $65.0 billion in May. Consensus expectations had been for a $65.7 billion deficit in June. Total exports rose 2.0% in June (+14.0% y/y) after a [...]

U.S. Foreign Trade Deficit Improved Slightly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060810a.jpg" width="353">
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 7,000 to 319,000 last week versus consensus expectations of 315,000 but the prior week was revised from 315,000 to 312,000. July claims averaged 314,000 while June averaged 308,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, dropped to 308,750 (-1.91% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 48,000 following a 33,000 decline the previous week which was revised from an 11,000 increase reported initially.
The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.9% where it has been since February.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">8/5/06</th>
<th scope="col">7/29/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>319</td>
<td>312</td>
<td>1.92%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,480</td>
<td>-3.91%</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
</tr>
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Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 7,000 to 319,000 last week versus consensus expectations of 315,000 but the prior week was revised from 315,000 to 312,000. July claims averaged 314,000 while June averaged 308,000. [...]

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Up Again

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Robert Brusca

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: August 2006

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