Global| Aug 10 2006U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Up Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 7,000 to 319,000 last week versus consensus expectations of 315,000 but the prior week was revised from 315,000 to 312,000. July claims averaged 314,000 while June averaged 308,000. [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased 7,000 to 319,000 last week versus consensus expectations of 315,000 but the prior week was revised from 315,000 to 312,000. July claims averaged 314,000 while June averaged 308,000.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a less volatile measure, dropped to 308,750 (-1.91% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 48,000 following a 33,000 decline the previous week which was revised from an 11,000 increase reported initially.
The insured rate of unemployment is unchanged at 1.9% where it has been since February.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 8/5/06 | 7/29/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 319 | 312 | 1.92% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,480 | -3.91% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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