Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/200421a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421a.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/200421b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421b.png"></a>

&bull; Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped further yesterday.


&bull; Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road.


&bull; Natural gas prices ease.


The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) per barrel last week from an average $24.40 one
week earlier. It was the lowest price since February 2002. Yesterday, prices
actually turned negative as oil producers paid buyers to take oil over fears
that storage could run out in May. The price of Brent crude oil declined to an
average of $29.18 last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in
the last week of December. Yesterday, the price was $25.93.

Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.81 per gallon
(-36.2% y/y) in the week ended April 20 from $1.85 per gallon in the previous
week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver
Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The
seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.73 per gallon from $1.79.

The average price of natural gas edged lower to $1.72/mmbtu
(-34.5% y/y) last week after rising to $1.77 in the prior week. They remained
below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November. Yesterday, the price was $1.86/mmbtu.

Reduced oil &amp; product prices reflect a collapse in demand
and a rise in supply. In the four weeks ending April 10, gasoline demand
declined 31.6% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 18.5% y/y. Crude
oil input to refineries declined 10.7% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same
time, gasoline inventories rose 15.0% y/y and inventories of all
petroleum products increased 4.9% y/y.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

<a href="/comment/200421c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/200421d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th>04/20/20</th>
 <th>04/13/20</th>
 <th>04/06/20</th>
 <th>Y/Y %</th>
 <th>2019</th>
 <th>2018</th>
 <th>2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular,
 Monday Price, End of Period)</td>
 <td>1.81</td>
 <td>1.85</td>
 <td>1.92</td>
 <td>-36.2</td>
 <td>2.57</td>
 <td>2.27</td>
 <td>2.47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl,
 Previous Week's Average)</td>
 <td>20.10</td>
 <td>24.40</td>
 <td>21.72</td>
 <td>-68.5</td>
 <td>56.91</td>
 <td>64.95</td>
 <td>50.87</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous
 Week's Average)</td>
 <td>1.72</td>
 <td>1.77</td>
 <td>1.62</td>
 <td>-34.5</td>
 <td>2.57</td>
 <td>3.18</td>
 <td>2.99</td>
 </tr>
	 </tbody>
	 </table>
	 
</body></html>

• Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped further yesterday. • Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road. • Natural gas prices ease. The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) [...]

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/200421e.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421e.png" align="left"></a>
It's down, it's up, it's down, it's up...it's confused! 
The table below shows the percentile standings of the ZEW assessments this month on different gauges. The bottom of the table offers various summary statistics among them the change in the (diffusion) index on the month. These assessments have a range of +100 to -100 (everyone can think things are great or everyone can think they are rotten) with many possibilities in between. The main body of the table offers the percentile standing of the diffusion indexes in their queue of values since 1999.

This month the average index reading across table entries is -47.6 for the economic situation and +73.6 for economic expectation. Each of these is the largest swing in the history of the respective series. However, both expectations and the current situation had deteriorated sharply on a month-to-month basis one month ago. This month takes the actual current index reading nearly to its lower limit with a average reading of -93.2 (That is impressively weak for an average of seven entries with the maximum low of -100). But macroeconomic expectations that had fallen so sharply one month ago have rebounded even more sharply. That rebound has put the macroeconomic expectation reading back at a net positive reading, higher than anything we have seen on average since August 2015.

At the same time the ZEW assessment on oil is dead wrong as of mid 'mid-April' survey respondents saw oil at a 98th percentile standing of certainty looking for it to firm. Instead oil prices have collapsed to the weakest we have seen with futures prices even producing negative values for oil. Clearly the ZEW experts are grasping at straws. One month ago the virus and its spread scared the heck out of them; now all of a sudden they see a big bright light at the end of the tunnel. This is despite there being no vaccine and disparate plans for normalization that are untested as well as the fact that countries are facing a host of differing circumstances.


<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421.png" width="660" height="250">


The second table below distances us (may be not quite six feet) from the particulars of the first table and shows trends very clearly. The color coding shows us that only expectations (really) have percentile standings of the diffusion indexes above their 50% mark which places them above their historic medians. This explains the jump in the stock markets. Stocks are still assessed a bit weaker month-to-month, but that assessment was cut very little month-to-month. And stock's queue standings remain well below the queue standing for expectations. Stocks are not being marked up in step with expectations for economic revival but are being marked up nonetheless and we see that in real world equity market functioning.


<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421 2.png" width="660" height="270">


Not only are the so-called curves beginning to flatten rather broadly but people are getting tired of being cooped-up and the economic damage is spreading in a way that threatens to get out of control even in the face of support programs and the money that is being paid out. A change is coming; the equity market can smell it.

Expectations for 'normalization' are shifting up on a pastiche of optimism, impatience, and obstinance. WHO warns that that the transition toward normalcy must be measured.

On balance, the economic situation is still asses as poor at a horrifically weak 3.6% queue standing on average. Economic expectations at a 63.4% average are above their historic median. Inflation expectations are at their lower 10th percentile. Short-term interest rate expectations are at their lower 15th percentile with long-term rates at their 11th percentile. Stock expectations hold to their 37th percentile, still well below their median.

These, of course, are only assessments and expectations. Given that financial experts know little about the virus, we should view these metrics they offer as being unusually suspect. At the same time, these metrics go a long way to explaining why markets are acting as they are acting. There is optimism about the future despite the deep dark days of present. Will that dichotomy stand? Will the more buoyant expectations be satisfied? Stay tuned for as the world churns…









</html>

It's down, it's up, it's down, it's up...it's confused! The table below shows the percentile standings of the ZEW assessments this month on different gauges. The bottom of the table offers various summary statistics among them the [...]

ZEW Experts Show Wild Swings in Expectations and More

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/200421j.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421j.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/200421k.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421k.png"></a>

&bull; Existing home sales near 2019 low as coronavirus sets in.
&bull; Sales decline around the country.
&bull; Prices improved before quarantine.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
sales of existing homes during March declined 8.5% (+0.8% y/y) to 5.270 million
(AR) from 5.760 million in February, revised from 5.770 million. It was the
lowest level of sales since April of last year. The Action Economics Forecast
Survey expected March sales of 5.30 million.

The median price of all existing homes sold increased 3.8% (NSA,
8.0% y/y) to $280,600 following a 1.6% February increase. The average sales
price improved 3.3% last month (6.2% y/y) to $316,000. These price data are not
seasonally adjusted.

Existing home sales weakened around the country in March. In
the West, sales fell 13.6% (-0.9% y/y) to 1.080 million and reversed the
increase in February. Sales in the South declined 9.1% (+0.9% y/y) to 2.290
million, the lowest level since November. In the Northeast, sales fell 7.1%
(-3.0% y/y) to 650,000, roughly five-year low. Sales in the Midwest were off
3.1% (+4.2% y/y) to 1.250 million, the lowest level since May of last year.

Sales of existing single-family homes weakened 8.1% (+1.3%
y/y) to 4.740 million units and reversed February's rise. Sales of condos and
co-ops plunged 11.7% (-3.6% y/y) to 530,000 units, the lowest level
since July 2012.

The number of homes on the market decreased 10.2% y/y, but
rose seasonally in recent months. The months' supply of homes on the market
improved m/m to 3.4 but compared to 3.8 one year earlier. These inventory
figures date back to 1999.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are
compiled by the National Association of Realtors and can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in
the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/200421l.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421l.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/200421m.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421m.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Existing Home Sales (SAAR,
 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" >Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jan</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" >2019</th>
 <th scope="col" >2018</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total Sales</td>
 <td>5,270</td>
 <td>5,760</td>
 <td>5,420</td>
 <td>0.8</td>
 <td>5,330</td>
 <td>5,341</td>
 <td>5,531</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td>650</td>
 <td>700</td>
 <td>730</td>
 <td>-3.0</td>
 <td>687</td>
 <td>689</td>
 <td>735</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td>1,250</td>
 <td>1,290</td>
 <td>1,280</td>
 <td>4.2</td>
 <td>1,248</td>
 <td>1,265</td>
 <td>1,301</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; South</td>
 <td>2,290</td>
 <td>2,520</td>
 <td>2,350</td>
 <td>0.9</td>
 <td>2,281</td>
 <td>2,246</td>
 <td>2,270</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp; West</td>
 <td>1,080</td>
 <td>1,250</td>
 <td>1,060</td>
 <td>-0.9</td>
 <td>1,115</td>
 <td>1,141</td>
 <td>1,225</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" >Single-Family Sales</td>
 <td>4,740</td>
 <td>5,160</td>
 <td>4,820</td>
 <td>1.3</td>
 <td>4,754</td>
 <td>4,742</td>
 <td>4,907</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Median Price Total ($, NSA)</td>
 <td>280,600</td>
 <td>270,400</td>
 <td>266,200</td>
 <td>8.0</td>
 <td>269,783</td>
 <td>257,267</td>
 <td>245,950</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
 </body></html>

• Existing home sales near 2019 low as coronavirus sets in. • Sales decline around the country. • Prices improved before quarantine. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that sales of existing homes during March [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Pull Back but Prices Rise

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/200421f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/200421g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421g.png"></a>

&bull; New orders &amp; shipments turn negative.
&bull; Employment decline weakens wages.
&bull; Prices paid fall sharply.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its
Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current activity at the company level dropped
to -82.5 during April after weakening to -12.8 in March. The index of expected
general activity similarly remained negative at -24.5.

Components of the company general activity index were all
weak this month. New orders figures collapsed to -67.2 as only 0.3% of firms
reported improved new orders while a greatly increased 68% reported a decline.
The sales or revenue series fell m/m to -87.9. The index of unfilled orders also
went negative but the inventories measure rose slightly.

The labor market measures unraveled in April. The full-time
permanent employment measure fell to -47.5, indicating a record pace of job
cutbacks. A greatly lessened 4% of firms reported increased hiring while a
surging 52% reported a decline. Part-time/temporary employee hiring again was
pulled back. The average workweek reading similarly dove. The wages &amp;
benefits measure turned negative.

Pricing power evaporated. The index of prices paid fell to
-0.4, down from 34.7 late last year. A greatly lessened 13% of firms reported
higher prices while a near-record 14% paid less. The prices received index fell
well into negative territory.

The capital expenditure measures collapsed. Both the physical
plant and equipment &amp; software expenditure readings turned negative. Seven
percent of respondents raised outlays on equipment while 48% lowered them.

The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting decreases in
business activity from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero
indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good
correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's
SURVEYS database.

<a href="/comment/200421h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/200421i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421i.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1376">Federal Reserve Bank of
 Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index,
 SA)</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" >Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr'19</th>
 <th scope="col" >2019</th>
 <th scope="col" >2018</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">General Activity - Company</td>
 <td>-82.5</td>
 <td>-12.8</td>
 <td>36.1</td>
 <td>34.5</td>
 <td>23.4</td>
 <td>33.5</td>
 <td>27.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td>-67.2</td>
 <td>-16.4</td>
 <td>28.1</td>
 <td>21.0</td>
 <td>16.7</td>
 <td>24.2</td>
 <td>19.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Sales or Revenue</td>
 <td>-87.9</td>
 <td>-4.9</td>
 <td>39.8</td>
 <td>34.0</td>
 <td>24.0</td>
 <td>30.8</td>
 <td>27.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td>1.9</td>
 <td>-1.7</td>
 <td>5.6</td>
 <td>2.0</td>
 <td>4.0</td>
 <td>5.2</td>
 <td>3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Number of Full-Time Permanent
 Employees</td>
 <td>-47.5</td>
 <td>-1.7</td>
 <td>21.5</td>
 <td>18.7</td>
 <td>20.9</td>
 <td>18.1</td>
 <td>14.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Part-Time/Temporary/Contract
 Employees</td>
 <td>-58.9</td>
 <td>-11.2</td>
 <td>10.4</td>
 <td>23.1</td>
 <td>14.6</td>
 <td>15.5</td>
 <td>12.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td>-0.4</td>
 <td>6.0</td>
 <td>21.3</td>
 <td>26.4</td>
 <td>25.0</td>
 <td>28.3</td>
 <td>21.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Wage &amp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td>-35.7</td>
 <td>26.6</td>
 <td>30.7</td>
 <td>37.0</td>
 <td>39.4</td>
 <td>40.1</td>
 <td>33.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">Expected General Activity - Company</td>
 <td>-24.5</td>
 <td>-16.3</td>
 <td>44.2</td>
 <td>43.4</td>
 <td>41.7</td>
 <td>49.9</td>
 <td>49.8</td>
 </tr>
	 </tbody>
	 </table>
	 
</body></html>

• New orders & shipments turn negative. • Employment decline weakens wages. • Prices paid fall sharply. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current activity at the company [...]

Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Collapses

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/200421a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421a.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/200421b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421b.png"></a>

	 &bull; Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped further yesterday.
			

			&bull; Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road.
			

			&bull; Natural gas prices ease.
 

The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) per barrel last week from an average $24.40 one
week earlier. It was the lowest price since February 2002. Yesterday, prices actually turned negative as
oil producers paid buyers to take oil over fears of continued weak demand and a
lack of storage. The price of Brent crude oil declined to an average of $29.18
last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in the last week of
December. Yesterday, the price was $25.93.

Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.81 per gallon
(-36.2% y/y) in the week ended April 20 from $1.85 per gallon in the previous
week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver
Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The
seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.73 per gallon from $1.79.

The average price of natural gas edged lower to $1.72/mmbtu
(-34.5% y/y) last week after rising to $1.77 in the prior week. They remained
below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November. Yesterday, the price was $1.86/mmbtu.

Reduced oil &amp; product prices reflect a collapse in demand
and a rise in supply. In the four weeks ending April 10, gasoline demand
declined 31.6% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 18.5% y/y. Crude
oil input to refineries declined 10.7% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same
time, gasoline inventories rose 15.0% y/y and inventories of all
petroleum products increased 4.9% y/y.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

<a href="/comment/200421c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/200421d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/200421d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th>04/20/20</th>
 <th>04/13/20</th>
 <th>04/06/20</th>
 <th>Y/Y %</th>
 <th>2019</th>
 <th>2018</th>
 <th>2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular,
 Monday Price, End of Period)</td>
 <td>1.81</td>
 <td>1.85</td>
 <td>1.92</td>
 <td>-36.2</td>
 <td>2.57</td>
 <td>2.27</td>
 <td>2.47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl,
 Previous Week's Average)</td>
 <td>20.10</td>
 <td>24.40</td>
 <td>21.72</td>
 <td>-68.5</td>
 <td>56.91</td>
 <td>64.95</td>
 <td>50.87</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous
 Week's Average)</td>
 <td>1.72</td>
 <td>1.77</td>
 <td>1.62</td>
 <td>-34.5</td>
 <td>2.57</td>
 <td>3.18</td>
 <td>2.99</td>
 </tr>
	 </tbody>
	 </table>
	 
</body></html>

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Growth Picked Up in February
by Tom Moeller&nbsp; March 23</title>
</head>

<body>

 

• Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped
further yesterday.
• Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road.
• Natural gas prices ease. 
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) per barrel last week from an average $24.40 one
week earlier. It was the lowest price since February 2002. Yesterday, prices
actually turned negative as oil producers paid buyers to take oil over fears
that storage could run out in May. The price of Brent crude oil declined to an
average of $29.18 last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in
the last week of December. Yesterday, the price was $25.93.
Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.81 per gallon
(-36.2% y/y) in the week ended April 20 from $1.85 per gallon in the previous
week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver
Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The
seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.73 per gallon from $1.79.
The average price of natural gas edged lower to $1.72/mmbtu
(-34.5% y/y) last week after rising to $1.77 in the prior week. They remained
below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November. Yesterday, the price was
$1.86/mmbtu.
Reduced oil &amp; product prices reflect a collapse in demand
and a rise in supply. In the four weeks ending April 10, gasoline demand
declined 31.6% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 18.5% y/y. Crude
oil input to refineries declined 10.7% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same
time,&nbsp; gasoline inventories rose 15.0% y/y and inventories of all
petroleum products increased 4.9% y/y. 
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1046">Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th width="117">04/20/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/13/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/06/20</th>
 <th width="117">Y/Y %</th>
 <th width="117">2019</th>
 <th width="118">2018</th>
 <th width="118">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular,
 Monday Price, End of Period)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.81</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.85</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.92</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-36.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.27</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl,
 Previous Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">20.10</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">24.40</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">21.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-68.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">56.91</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">64.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">50.87</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous
 Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.77</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.62</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">3.18</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.99</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity
Collapses 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;April 21, 2020
• New orders &amp; shipments fall sharply.
• Employment decline weakens wages.
• Prices paid decline.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its
Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current general activity at the company level
dropped to -12.8 during March after rising to 36.1 in February. The index of
expected general activity similarly declined to -16.3 from 44.2.
Components of the company general activity index were
uniformly weak this month. New orders figures collapsed to -16.4. A reduced 17%
of firms reported improved new orders while a greatly increased 33% reported a
decline. The sales or revenue series fell m/m to -4.9, the lowest level in over
four years. The index of unfilled orders improved but the inventories measure
cratered.
The labor market measures retreated in March. The full-time
permanent employment measure fell to -1.7, indicating job cutbacks at the
greatest rate since 2012. A greatly lessened 19% of firms reported increased
hiring while a surging 20% reported a decline. Part-time/temporary employee
hiring also weakened sharply to a roughly five-year low. The average workweek
reading similarly collapsed as did the wages &amp; benefits measure.
Pricing power was constrained. The index of prices paid fell
to 6.0, down from 34.7 just three months ago. A greatly lessened 15% of firms
reported higher prices while an increased nine percent indicated a decline, the
most in five years. Prices received also were significantly weakened.
The capital expenditure measures fell sharply. The physical
plant measure declined to the lowest level since October. The equipment &amp;
software expenditure reading also weakened to a four-month low.
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting decreases in
business activity from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero
indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good
correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's
SURVEYS database.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1376">Federal Reserve Bank of
 Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index,
 SA)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr'19</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="71">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-82.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-12.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">36.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">33.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-67.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">16.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">19.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Sales or Revenue</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-87.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Number of Full-Time Permanent
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-47.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">20.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">14.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Part-Time/Temporary/Contract
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-58.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-11.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">10.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">14.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">15.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">12.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">25.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">21.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Wage &amp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-35.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">37.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">40.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">33.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">Expected General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70"></td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">44.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">44.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">41.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">49.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">49.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
U.S. Existing Home Sales Reach 2007 High with Increased
Prices in February 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; April 21, 2020
• Existing home sales weaken to xxx low.
• Sales declines are broad-based around the country.
• Prices weaken as inventory increases.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
sales of existing homes during February jumped 6.5% (7.2% y/y) to 5.770 million
(AR) from 5.420 million in January, revised from 5.460 million. It was the
highest level of sales since February 2007. The Action Economics Forecast Survey
expected February sales of 5.52 million.
The median price of all existing homes sold increased 1.5%
(8.0% y/y) to $270,100 following a 3.0% January decline. The average sales price
improved 1.0% last month (6.0% y/y) to $305,800. These price data are not
seasonally adjusted.
Existing home sales were mixed around the country in
February. The increase in sales overall was paced by an 18.9% surge (11.5% y/y)
in the West to 1.260 million, the highest level since February 2007. Sales in
the South rose 7.2% (8.2% y/y) to 2.520 million, the highest level since October
2006, while sales in the Midwest edged 0.8% up (4.0% y/y). Sales in the
Northeast declined, however, by 4.1% (+2.9% y/y) to 700,000, the lowest level in
three months.
Sales of existing single-family homes strengthened 7.3% both
m/m and&nbsp; y/y to 5.170 million units after falling 1.8% in January. Sales of
condos and co-ops held steady (7.1% y/y) at 600,000 units.
The number of homes on the market decreased 9.8% y/y and
roughly equaled the record low. The month's supply of homes on the market
remained at 3.1 versus 3.6 one year earlier and roughly equaled the record low.
These inventory figures date back to 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are
compiled by the National Association of Realtors and can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in
the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="706">Existing Home Sales (SAAR,
 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="165">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Jan</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Mar Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Total Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,770</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,420</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">7.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,330</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,341</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,531</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">700</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">730</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">687</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">689</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">735</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,290</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,280</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,248</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,265</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,301</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,520</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,350</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">8.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,281</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,246</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,270</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,260</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,060</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">11.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,115</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,141</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,225</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Single-Family Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,170</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,820</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">7.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,754</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,742</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,907</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Median Price Total ($, NSA)</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">270,100</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">266,200</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">8.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">269,783</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">257,267</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">245,950</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Growth Picked Up in February
by Tom Moeller&nbsp; March 23</title>
</head>

<body>

 

• Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped
further yesterday.
• Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road.
• Natural gas prices ease. 
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) per barrel last week from an average $24.40 one
week earlier. It was the lowest price since February 2002.&nbsp; Yesterday, prices actually turned negative as
oil producers paid buyers to take oil over fears of continued weak demand and a
lack of storage. The price of Brent crude oil declined to an average of $29.18
last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in the last week of
December. Yesterday, the price was $25.93.
Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.81 per gallon
(-36.2% y/y) in the week ended April 20 from $1.85 per gallon in the previous
week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver
Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The
seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.73 per gallon from $1.79.
The average price of natural gas edged lower to $1.72/mmbtu
(-34.5% y/y) last week after rising to $1.77 in the prior week. They remained
below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November. Yesterday, the price was
$1.86/mmbtu.
Reduced oil &amp; product prices reflect a collapse in demand
and a rise in supply. In the four weeks ending April 10, gasoline demand
declined 31.6% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 18.5% y/y. Crude
oil input to refineries declined 10.7% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same
time,&nbsp; gasoline inventories rose 15.0% y/y and inventories of all
petroleum products increased 4.9% y/y. 
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1046">Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th width="117">04/20/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/13/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/06/20</th>
 <th width="117">Y/Y %</th>
 <th width="117">2019</th>
 <th width="118">2018</th>
 <th width="118">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular,
 Monday Price, End of Period)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.81</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.85</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.92</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-36.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.27</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl,
 Previous Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">20.10</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">24.40</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">21.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-68.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">56.91</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">64.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">50.87</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous
 Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.77</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.62</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">3.18</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.99</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity
Collapses 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;April 21, 2020
• New orders &amp; shipments turn negative.
• Employment decline weakens wages.
• Prices paid fall sharply.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its
Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current activity at the company level dropped
to -82.5 during April after weakening to -12.8 in March. The index of expected
general activity similarly remained negative at -24.5.
Components of the company general activity index were all
weak this month. New orders figures collapsed to -67.2 as only 0.3% of firms
reported improved new orders while a greatly increased 68% reported a decline.
The sales or revenue series fell m/m to -87.9. The index of unfilled orders also
went negative but the inventories measure rose slightly.
The labor market measures unraveled in April. The full-time
permanent employment measure fell to -47.5, indicating a record pace of job
cutbacks. A greatly lessened 4% of firms reported increased hiring while a
surging 52% reported a decline. Part-time/temporary employee hiring again was
pulled back. The average workweek reading similarly dove. The wages &amp;
benefits measure turned negative.
Pricing power evaporated. The index of prices paid fell to
-0.4, down from 34.7 late last year. A greatly lessened 13% of firms reported
higher prices while a near-record 14% paid less. The prices received index fell
well into negative territory.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
The capital expenditure measures collapsed. Both the physical
plant and equipment &amp; software expenditure readings turned negative. Seven
percent of respondents raised outlays on equipment while 48% lowered them. 
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting decreases in
business activity from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero
indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good
correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's
SURVEYS database.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1376">Federal Reserve Bank of
 Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index,
 SA)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr'19</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="71">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-82.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-12.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">36.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">33.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-67.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">16.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">19.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Sales or Revenue</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-87.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Number of Full-Time Permanent
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-47.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">20.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">14.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Part-Time/Temporary/Contract
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-58.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-11.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">10.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">14.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">15.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">12.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">25.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">21.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Wage &amp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-35.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">37.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">40.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">33.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">Expected General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-24.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">44.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">43.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">41.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">49.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">49.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
U.S. Existing Home Sales Reach 2007 High with Increased
Prices in February 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp; April 21, 2020
• Existing home sales weaken to xxx low.
• Sales declines are broad-based around the country.
• Prices weaken as inventory increases.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
sales of existing homes during February jumped 6.5% (7.2% y/y) to 5.770 million
(AR) from 5.420 million in January, revised from 5.460 million. It was the
highest level of sales since February 2007. The Action Economics Forecast Survey
expected February sales of 5.52 million.
The median price of all existing homes sold increased 1.5%
(8.0% y/y) to $270,100 following a 3.0% January decline. The average sales price
improved 1.0% last month (6.0% y/y) to $305,800. These price data are not
seasonally adjusted.
Existing home sales were mixed around the country in
February. The increase in sales overall was paced by an 18.9% surge (11.5% y/y)
in the West to 1.260 million, the highest level since February 2007. Sales in
the South rose 7.2% (8.2% y/y) to 2.520 million, the highest level since October
2006, while sales in the Midwest edged 0.8% up (4.0% y/y). Sales in the
Northeast declined, however, by 4.1% (+2.9% y/y) to 700,000, the lowest level in
three months.
Sales of existing single-family homes strengthened 7.3% both
m/m and&nbsp; y/y to 5.170 million units after falling 1.8% in January. Sales of
condos and co-ops held steady (7.1% y/y) at 600,000 units.
The number of homes on the market decreased 9.8% y/y and
roughly equaled the record low. The month's supply of homes on the market
remained at 3.1 versus 3.6 one year earlier and roughly equaled the record low.
These inventory figures date back to 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are
compiled by the National Association of Realtors and can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in
the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="706">Existing Home Sales (SAAR,
 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="165">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Jan</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Mar Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Total Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,770</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,420</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">7.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,330</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,341</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,531</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">700</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">730</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">687</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">689</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">735</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,290</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,280</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,248</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,265</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,301</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,520</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,350</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">8.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,281</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,246</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,270</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,260</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,060</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">11.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,115</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,141</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,225</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Single-Family Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,170</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,820</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">7.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,754</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,742</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,907</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Median Price Total ($, NSA)</td>
 <td align="center" width="165"></td>
 <td align="center" width="166">270,100</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">266,200</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">8.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">269,783</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">257,267</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">245,950</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>Chicago Fed National Activity Index Suggests Growth Picked Up in February
by Tom Moeller&nbsp; March 23</title>
</head>

<body>

 

• Crude oil prices slid lower last week and dropped
further yesterday.
• Gasoline prices fall as drivers stay off the road.
• Natural gas prices ease.&nbsp;
The spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
weakened to $20.10 (-68.5% y/y) per barrel last week from an average $24.40 one
week earlier. It was the lowest price since February 2002.&nbsp; Yesterday, prices actually turned negative as
oil producers paid buyers to take oil over fears of continued weak demand and a
lack of storage. The price of Brent crude oil declined to an average of $29.18
last week. The price has fallen from a $67.38 high averaged in the last week of
December. Yesterday, the price was $25.93.
Retail gasoline prices declined to $1.81 per gallon
(-36.2% y/y) in the week ended April 20 from $1.85 per gallon in the previous
week. Prices remained below their May 2019 peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver
Analytics adjusts the gasoline price series for regular seasonal variation. The
seasonally adjusted price fell to $1.73 per gallon from $1.79.
The average price of natural gas edged lower to $1.72/mmbtu
(-34.5% y/y) last week after rising to $1.77 in the prior week. They remained
below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November. Yesterday, the price was
$1.86/mmbtu.
Reduced oil &amp; product prices reflect a collapse in demand
and a rise in supply. In the four weeks ending April 10, gasoline demand
declined 31.6% y/y, while total petroleum product demand fell 18.5% y/y. Crude
oil input to refineries declined 10.7% y/y in the past four weeks. At the same
time,&nbsp; gasoline inventories rose 15.0% y/y and inventories of all
petroleum products increased 4.9% y/y.&nbsp;
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The
price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases.
Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data,
along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1046">Weekly Energy Prices</th>
 <th width="117">04/20/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/13/20</th>
 <th width="117">04/06/20</th>
 <th width="117">Y/Y %</th>
 <th width="117">2019</th>
 <th width="118">2018</th>
 <th width="118">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular,
 Monday Price, End of Period)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.81</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.85</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.92</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-36.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.27</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.47</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl,
 Previous Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">20.10</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">24.40</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">21.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-68.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">56.91</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">64.95</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">50.87</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1046">Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous
 Week's Average)</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.72</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.77</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">1.62</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">-34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="117">2.57</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">3.18</td>
 <td align="center" width="118">2.99</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity
Collapses 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;April 21, 2020
• New orders &amp; shipments turn negative.
• Employment decline weakens wages.
• Prices paid fall sharply.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its
Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current activity at the company level dropped
to -82.5 during April after weakening to -12.8 in March. The index of expected
general activity similarly remained negative at -24.5.
Components of the company general activity index were all
weak this month. New orders figures collapsed to -67.2 as only 0.3% of firms
reported improved new orders while a greatly increased 68% reported a decline.
The sales or revenue series fell m/m to -87.9. The index of unfilled orders also
went negative but the inventories measure rose slightly.
The labor market measures unraveled in April. The full-time
permanent employment measure fell to -47.5, indicating a record pace of job
cutbacks. A greatly lessened 4% of firms reported increased hiring while a
surging 52% reported a decline. Part-time/temporary employee hiring again was
pulled back. The average workweek reading similarly dove. The wages &amp;
benefits measure turned negative.
Pricing power evaporated. The index of prices paid fell to
-0.4, down from 34.7 late last year. A greatly lessened 13% of firms reported
higher prices while a near-record 14% paid less. The prices received index fell
well into negative territory.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
The capital expenditure measures collapsed. Both the physical
plant and equipment &amp; software expenditure readings turned negative. Seven
percent of respondents raised outlays on equipment while 48% lowered them.&nbsp;
The Philadelphia Fed figures are diffusion indexes which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting decreases in
business activity from those reporting improvement. So, readings above zero
indicate more positive than negative responses. These indexes have a good
correlation with growth in the series covered. The data are available in Haver's
SURVEYS database.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1376">Federal Reserve Bank of
 Philadelphia: Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey (Diffusion Index,
 SA)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">Apr'19</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="70">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="71">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-82.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-12.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">36.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">33.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-67.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">16.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">19.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Sales or Revenue</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-87.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">34.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">24.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">27.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">3.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Number of Full-Time Permanent
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-47.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">20.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">18.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">14.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Part-Time/Temporary/Contract
 Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-58.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-11.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">10.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">23.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">14.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">15.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">12.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">21.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">25.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">28.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">21.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">&nbsp; Wage &amp; Benefit Costs</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-35.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">26.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">30.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">37.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">39.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">40.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">33.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1376">Expected General Activity - Company</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-24.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">-16.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">44.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">43.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">41.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="70">49.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="71">49.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>

&nbsp;
U.S. Existing Home Sales Pull Back but Prices Rise 
by <a href="http://www.haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; April 21, 2020
• Existing home sales near 2019 low as coronavirus sets
in.
• Sales decline around the country.
• Prices improved before quarantine.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that
sales of existing homes during March declined 8.5% (+0.8% y/y) to 5.270 million
(AR) from 5.760 million in February, revised from 5.770 million. It was the
lowest level of sales since April of last year. The Action Economics Forecast
Survey expected March sales of 5.30 million.
The median price of all existing homes sold increased 3.8% (NSA,
8.0% y/y) to $280,600 following a 1.6% February increase. The average sales
price improved 3.3% last month (6.2% y/y) to $316,000. These price data are not
seasonally adjusted.
Existing home sales weakened around the country in March. In
the West, sales fell 13.6% (-0.9% y/y) to 1.080 million and reversed the
increase in February. Sales in the South declined 9.1% (+0.9% y/y) to 2.290
million, the lowest level since November. In the Northeast, sales fell 7.1%
(-3.0% y/y) to 650,000, roughly five-year low. Sales in the Midwest were off
3.1% (+4.2% y/y) to 1.250 million, the lowest level since May of last year.
Sales of existing single-family homes weakened 8.1% (+1.3%
y/y) to 4.740 million units and reversed February's rise. Sales of condos and
co-ops weakened plunged 11.7% (-3.6% y/y) to 530,000 units, the lowest level
since July 2012.
The number of homes on the market decreased 10.2% y/y, but
rose seasonally in recent months. The months' supply of homes on the market
improved m/m to 3.4 but compared to 3.8 one year earlier. These inventory
figures date back to 1999.
The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability are
compiled by the National Association of Realtors and can be found in Haver's USECON
database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in
the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action
Economics Forecast Survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="706">Existing Home Sales (SAAR,
 000s)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="165">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Feb</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Jan</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">Mar Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2019</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2018</th>
 <th scope="col" width="166">2017</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Total Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">5,270</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,760</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,420</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,330</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,341</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,531</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Northeast</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">650</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">700</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">730</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">-3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">687</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">689</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">735</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; Midwest</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">1,250</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,290</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,280</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,248</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,265</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,301</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; South</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">2,290</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,520</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,350</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,281</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,246</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">2,270</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">&nbsp;&nbsp; West</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">1,080</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,250</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,060</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">-0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,115</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,141</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1,225</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="even">
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Single-Family Sales</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">4,740</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">5,160</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,820</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,754</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,742</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">4,907</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="706">Median Price Total ($, NSA)</td>
 <td align="center" width="165">280,600</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">270,400</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">266,200</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">8.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">269,783</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">257,267</td>
 <td align="center" width="166">245,950</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250502A5.jpg

250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

250502F32.jpg

250502G32.jpg

Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502H32.jpg

250502I32.jpg

- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall in April

250501J5.jpg

250501K5.jpg

The ISM Purchasing Managers Index of activity in the manufacturing sector slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0 during March and 50.3 in February. It remained up from a low of 46.9 in October of last year. A level of 50 is the break-even point between a rising and falling level of activity. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 47.8 for April. The series reached a monthly high of 63.8 in March 2021.

Two of the five component indexes weakened last month. The April production index fell to 44.0 after declining to 48.3 in March. It was the lowest level since May 2020. A lessened 19.8% (NSA) of respondents reported higher production while an increased 24.2% reported lower output. The inventories index declined to 50.8 last month from 53.4 in March. The index remained up from a low of 43.2 in October of last year.

Moving higher, the new orders index rose to 47.2 last month from 45.2 in March. The index remained below a January high of 55.1. Twenty-eight percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher new orders while 26.7% reported a decline. The employment index rose to 46.5 from 44.7 in March. It was below a high of 50.3 in January. A greater 13.1% (NSA) of respondents reported more hiring while a fewer 16.2% indicated less. The supplier delivery index rose to 55.2 from 53.5 in March. A higher 16.6% (NSA) of respondents reported slower delivery speeds while a fairly steady 6.2% reported a quickening.

The prices index, which is not part of the composite series, edged up to 69.8 (NSA) in April after increasing to 69.4 in March. It was the highest level since June 2022, up from a December 2022 low of 39.4. An increased 49.2% of respondents reported higher prices last month, up from 12.2% in November, while a higher 9.7% reported lower prices.

In other series, the export orders index plummeted to 43.1 in April from 49.6 during March. It was down from the high of 52.4 in January. The imports index fell sharply to 47.1 from 50.1 in March. It was the lowest reading since December 2023. The order backlog index dropped to 43.7 (NSA) last month from 44.5 in March. It was the lowest level in five months.

The ISM figures are based on responses from over 400 purchasing executives from 18 industries, which are weighted according to each industry’s contribution to GDP. These indexes are diffusion indexes where a reading above 50 indicates expansion and a reading below 50 points to contraction. The figures from the Institute for Supply Management can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database; further detail is found in the **SURVEYS** database. The expectations number is available in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

250501L5.jpg

250501M5.jpg

- Declines in last three months follow earlier improvement.
- Production & inventories account for m/m shortfall.
- Prices index edges up to another three-year high.

Economy in Brief: April 2020

Jump to:

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up

ZEW Experts Show Wild Swings in Expectations and More

U.S. Existing Home Sales Pull Back but Prices Rise

Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Collapses

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up

U.S. Petroleum Prices Plunge as Demand Dries Up