Economy in Brief: March 2018

Auto sales are a very cyclical economic variable. They are usually very good at pegging the business cycle. However, registrations in Europe are now following a path that is a bit hard to place. Forecasting and making economic [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims fell to 226,000 during the week ended March 10 from 230,000 in the prior week, revised from 231,000. Claims remain near the lowest level since December 1969. Expectations had been for [...]

EMU industrial output fell by 1% in January. IP trends are relatively steady over 12 months and six months, but output is down to a 1.9% rate of growth over three months. Manufacturing output trends are in the 4.5% to 6% range over [...]

Total business inventories increased 0.6% (3.7% y/y) during January, the same as in December, revised from 0.4%. Total business sales fell 0.2% (+5.7% y/y), the first decline since last March. The changes in inventories and sales [...]

Total retail sales slipped 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) during February, following two months of similar decline. January's result was revised from -0.3% reported initially. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

The headline Final Demand Producer Price Index using new methodology increased 0.2% in February following a 0.4% gain in January. The year-on-year (y/y) growth edged up to 2.8%. A 0.1% February rise had been expected in the Action [...]

Japanese indicators largely show growth moving ahead but recent indicators show some backtracking; thus, suggesting that this notion of a global acceleration is either overblown or not including Japan. Japan's Economy Watchers index, [...]

Retail gasoline prices of $2.56 per gallon last week (10.2% y/y) were little-changed versus the prior three weeks, up from the early-2016 lows near $1.76 per gallon. Prices have moved roughly sideways since September. Haver Analytics [...]