Economy in Brief: 2022

Composite PMI data from S&P Global show broad weakening in May with 10 jurisdictions in the table showing weaker results month-to-month compared to 8 showing improvement. The U.S. and China showed the largest service sector pull backs on an ongoing basis. China does not yet post a composite value, but its composite PMI has been currently caught up in China's zero COVID policy and the ongoing rolling lockouts that have permeated its economy have weighed heavily on economic performance in recent months.

In May, the 18 jurisdictions in the table show an unweighted average of 54.3, down from 54.8 in April but stronger than 53.5 in March. The median, however, fell to 54.2 in May, below April's median of 55.8 and below the March median of 54.6.

The number of jurisdictions reporting composite PMIs below 50 are few and far between for all these periods. In May only three jurisdictions are below 50, in April there are two, and there are no more than two or three for any monthly or sequential interval in the table.

There are, however, more jurisdictions that are slowing. In May 10 jurisdictions show slowing; that's a broader slowdown than in April when four reported slowing, but slightly fewer than March when 12 jurisdictions reported slowing. The sequential comparisons show that five are slowing over three months, 10 are slowing over six months, but only four slow over 12 months compared to 12 months earlier. The data on slowing are mixed although May shows broad deterioration and the median data confirmed that the slowing is ongoing in recent months. The counterpoint is that average data are less supportive of that trend.

Sequential data also give a mixed reading on slowing if we look at the averages and means for their different periods the average PMI shows a slowing from 12-months to six-months and then just a technical upturn over three-months. The median shows a slowing from 12-months to six-months and then a revival over three-months that brings the median almost back to its 12-month value. That is very weak evidence of slowing – but there is no evidence of acceleration.

We can obtain an assessment of performance looking at the queue standings. These are calculations that place the current composite value in its Q of data back to January 2018 expressing the result as a percentile standing. On this basis, over this period the weakest performance is in Ghana, followed by Russia, the U.S., and then Nigeria. The U.S. composite has only a 32-percentile standing, meaning it has been weaker than this May value only about 1/3 of the time over this period. Countries that have top ten percentile standings on this timeline are: Singapore, Brazil, and India. The average queue standing for the period is 61.7%; the median standing is 67.9%. These are moderately firm readings for the average in the median.